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The odds of Miller coming back

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by RachelD, Jan 15, 2016.

  1. RachelD

    RachelD Active Member

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    Been racking my brain lately about the fact that we might lose a prime running back due to the stupidity of our coaching staff. I feel like if Miller would have gotten the ball 25 the times we would have a good chance of winning a lot more games. With Gase on board I think he will use Miller sort of like he liked Hillman in Denver, which would be ideal but way more effective. I just hope that we didn't screw the pooch with the end of the year by taking him out of the game after he was doing rather well.

    If we do lose Miller, I would like to know who we could possibly replace him with?
     
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  2. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    Miller just isn't a 25-carry/gm type of back. Not saying that he couldn't. But every game? I just don't think that's him. I think he is a twenty-carry guy. He's just not built like a Ricky for that kind of beating.

    As far as replacing him? Maybe roll with Ajayi and Williams?
     
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  3. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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  4. RachelD

    RachelD Active Member

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    I think it comes down to if he wants to be a lead back which it sounds like he does. I wonder if the hesitation is the injury factor which I thought was the reason we weren't giving him the touches in the first place. I do know one thing is I could possibly be interested in Ajayi, but i would not want Williams on this team or at least not in the backfield. It is a tough decision that needs to be made because the running game will be Tannehill's best friend if we can get that going. Still need to fix the O-Line so I guess its not all cut and dry lol
     
  5. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I agree with both you and Colmax, I think he can be a lead RB, but 25 carries a game is too much imo, 15 to 20 would be ideal imo, with Ajayi in relief, and I wouldn't cut bait on Williams yet, he may still turn out to be a good 3rd down back, he blocks well and catches well, he's strong and fast, and most importantly cheap, and with Miller and Ajayi in front of him he can still develop in the backround blocking and catching.
     
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  6. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    If the 15 carries a game are electric in this new offense (assuming they fix the damn Oline) and those 15 carries give us a better chance to win, then who cares whether he carries it 25 times a game. how many teams have bell cow backs. thats why you have AJayi.
     
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  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I love Miller, and really, really want the team to resign him. Whether they do or not depends on his asking price, and we won't know how big that is for a while. Crossing my fingers.
     
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  8. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Seattle, KC and Pitt won in the first round while using their 3rd string running backs.

    Houston, Arizona and NE is in without their starting RB.

    In fact, the only teams in the playoffs with a feature back is Panthers and Minnesota.

    There no proof that a feature back is needed. And I would say there is plenty of evidence showing that you don't spend big money on a RB.




    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  9. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    First of all we welcome you to the site.:yes:


    While I think Miller is a nice back and has the breakaway speed to score from anywhere on the field I look at him as a change of pace back .Remember when we had broken down injury prone Moreno on the team .Miller hardly saw any action because Moreno was an everydown back and could make his own holes .They both played behind the same pathetic OL.Thats where you can see the difference.

    Thats why last year I was a proponent of drafting Gurley who is the type of back I think we need and his performance this year proves it.

    By all means sign him if you can but I suspect he will want top ten RB money .We can replace him for less than that IMO.
     
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  10. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    The thing is, RBs don't make big money anymore, so I think Miller is well worth the 5 mil or so, and those teams you mentioned still pounded the rock, so they have the depth and or Oline to manage, and believe me, they wish they had their guy still, because their eventual exit may be because they didn't have him.

    Imo Miller is a top 10 RB, and you keep those guys.
     
  11. Marino1384

    Marino1384 Member

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    All of them have better lines than us and eith the exception of the texans ( who arent a playoff team anyways if it werent for a terrible division) have better qbs ( i love tannehill btw so not a blow to him just the truth) Point is its a really bad comparison. Miller can be explosive in the run and pass game if the line is upgraded and in the new system. That is worth 5 million a year for a guy thats just entering his prime.
     
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  12. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Miller will test the market IMO.
    I'm sure the Dolphins have their number and Lamar will search for more money.
    Someone will overpay.
     
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  13. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Someone will overpay.. Ezekiel Elliott is the best running back in the draft and hes being told late first round, while Derrick Henry is being told early second round.. We will find our running back in the draft..
     
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  14. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Murray just got 5 year 42 mil and McCoy got 5 year 40 mil?

    No chance I am spending that on a running back.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Pretty clearly we underused Miller here. Doesn't mean we should double down on that mistake and overpay him. I like Miller, and think he has alot to offer, but we can definitely get his production from a back in the draft, for much less money.
     
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  16. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Pitt, Seattle, and GB have pretty bad offensive lines. All have better QBs, but that is my point. You don't win with running backs. So there is no reason to spend a bunch of resources of them.
     
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  17. Marino1384

    Marino1384 Member

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    They all have bad passing lines, all have very good running lines. New englands ranked 2nd, seattles was 4th and pitts was 8th. Miami had the 28th ranked run blocking line. While i agree tht you dont NEED a great running back, it also doesnt hurt to have one especially if our oline doesn't significantly improve both run and pass blocking. He's a playmaker already and could be even better if we improve the oline and how we use him. Also i dont believe he'll be too expensive. Unlike vernon, he wants to stay in miami. He's spent his first 25 years of life within a 25 mile radius and im sure would love to finish it there where his friends and family are. If we give him a competitive offer i think he takes it with the home town discount and tax break of florida.
     
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  18. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    If they can keep him for 5M or less they simply need to. Miller was criminally not only underused but also misused. He doesn't need to be a 25 carry back, we have Ajayi to split workload, but Miller can be an explosive weapon in the passing game as well. Combine 15 or so carries with 5 targets, and you give him a lot of the ball for him to use his explosiveness to make plays.
     
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  19. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I rather take Alex Collins in the 3rd/4th round and pay Vernon.

    My guess is Lamar Miller ends up a Baltimore Raven.
     
  20. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Okay so maybe the key is to build an offensive line rather then *gasp* pay a ton to a position you shouldn't.

    And where do you keep getting this 5 million figure at.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    That's more than I would spend, but Miller won't command that money either, those guys are more the exceptions than the rule.
     
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  22. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    I can't for the life of me figure out why the prevailing opinion is that you don't need to have a reliable, often explosive running back who can catch the football. That is one of the primary weapons to keep the Quarterback alive - whether by deception because of the possibility of a run, by the actual hand-off and running play, and by being able to by design take the other team out of their game plan by being to drive on the opponent's defense and get them even more tired than if all they had to do was pin back their ears and attack the pocket.

    The opinion that running backs are so fungible that we need not keep one who has proven the capacity to help maintain drives, break off explosive gains, and keep a very good average per run with the atrocious line play this team has exhibited is, at best, suspect. The idea that we can always pick up a back in the draft is also highly suspect. I don't think that we can automatically assume that to be the case. Not here! If you have a good back, unless he asks for something absurd - you work to keep him. That part of the game is a weapon. You don't drop a .45 Colt to pick up a .22 snub nosed noise maker when someone is breaking into your home. You keep the big gun which has proven itself.

    [POINT! If he asks for more then the budget can possibly bear, that is one thing. If he asks for a raise which is commensurate with his proven capacity - that is another.]

    The other point is "When is the last time a running back for this team has broken off a LONG RUN for a TD?!?!?"
     
  23. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just to bring some facts into this discussion, here are the carries-per-game numbers for the NFL's leading rushers this year:

    Att/gm - Player Name (games played)

    20.4 - Peterson (17)
    18.0 - Martin (16)
    17.6 - Freeman (15)
    16.6 - Murray, L. (16)
    16.5 - Ivory (15)
    16.3 - Gore (16)
    14.9 - McFadden (16)
    13.1 - Hill (17)

    ...

    12.1 - Miller (16)


    Here are the players who missed significant time (3+ games):

    18.8 - Bell (6)
    18.6 - Stewart (13)
    17.8 - Johnson, C. (11)
    17.6 - Gurley (13)
    16.9 - Mccoy (12)
    16.8 - Forte (13)
    16.4 - Hyde (7)



    What's interesting is that only a single RB across the entire NFL averaged 20 carries per game. Plus, these averages seem seem hover where they are regardless of injury, as though the coaches are aiming for specific numbers. Amongst that first list, we're not looking at a group that missed much time. All but one played a full season. Clearly, the lack of carries was by design. I think OCs have realized that a lower number of carries and a higher ypc is a more appropriate balance considering it gives the player a greater chance of staying healthy. I'm sure quite a bit of research has been done to understand what's optimal. That no one outside of Adrian Peterson attempted to run 20 times per game is telling.

    Let's also take note that the top names are all relatively big, thick RBs. The optimal balance for a player like Miller is probably in the range where we see leaner guys like McFadden and Hill. HOWEVER, that doesn't leave a ton of room for increasing Miller's production. Reasonably speaking, we're likely talking about somewhere between 1 and 3 more carries per game.

    So I'm leaning towards saying that what we saw from Lamar Miller this year is probably 75-90% of what he'd give you unless you drove him into the ground and seriously risked getting him injured. The point is that while Miller has averaged 205 carries-per-season over the last 2 years, we can't assume a huge increase. What we can assume is maybe 20-30% more carries max.

    year - carries - yardage - ypc

    2014 - 216 - 1,099 - 5.1
    2015 - 194 - 0,872 - 4.5

    If I take Miller's 4.8 ypc average over those two years and increase the volume of carries proportionally, here's what I get:

    2016 - 226 - 1,084 - 4.8 (10% increase in carries)
    2016 - 246 - 1,183 - 4.8 (20% increase in carries)
    2016 - 267 - 1,281 - 4.8 (30% increase in carries)


    If we dive into Miller's performances we see that they are erratic. He'll carry the ball 19 or 20 times one week then 7 or 8 the next.

    Here are Miller's carry totals for each week of the season:
    13 - W
    10 - L
    07 - L
    07 - L
    19 - W
    14 - W
    09 - L
    12 - L
    16 - W
    07 - L
    05 - L
    20 - W
    12 - L
    09 - L
    15 - L
    19 - W

    Clearly there is a correlation between carries and wins but we can't say which is causing which. If we looked at 1st half carries versus 2nd half carries we might learn something there. For example, 1st half carries might indicate a Miller-heavy game-plan while 2nd half carries might suggest the team was running out the clock. Either way, it's believable that Miami does need to find a way to run Lamar Miller more. It may simply be an indictment of the O-line that Miller wasn't given more opportunities.

    Neverthless, we have to look at the above production and ask whether it's worth the price. At best we're talking about a 4.8 ypc, 1,250-yd RB. To me, that's good but not great. If you're going to feature a RB you want someone who is capable of 1,500+ yards. I also think it's important to acknowledge that as Miami ramps up the number of carries Miller's ypc is only going to go down. More work is not going to lead to more efficiency. Maybe you get better bulk production at a slightly less efficient rate but that's a best case scenario.

    So in reality we should probably assume a declining ypc average like the following:

    2016 - 226 - 1,130 - 5.0 (10% increase in carries)
    2016 - 246 - 1,181 - 4.8 (20% increase in carries)
    2016 - 267 - 1,228 - 4.6 (30% increase in carries)
    2016 - 287 - 1,263 - 4.4 (40% increase in carries)
    2016 - 308 - 1,294 - 4.2 (50% increase in carries)





    Here's the moral of the story. As you increase the bulk production you increase the risk of injury. So, if you give Miller a large contract and put him on pace to produce 1,250 yards you may very well wind up getting him injured in the process and only get something like 10-12 games from him. Thus, you have large contract yet the player is under-performing.

    THAT is what I believe has changed the position of RB in the NFL. It's not a lack of great RBs or a change in the offensive style alone. It's really the idea that your bell cow back might only play 60-80% of the games under which he's contractually obligated to your team. GO back to the beginning of this post and look at how 30-40% of the top RBs missed significant time!

    Let's list the names of feature RBs who missed 3 or more games:

    Lesean McCoy
    Arian Foster
    Jamaal Charles
    Leveon Bell
    Justin Forsett
    Mark Ingram
    Marshawn Lynch
    Carlos Hyde
    Chris Johnson
    Matt Forte

    I'm omitting Stewart here.


    Teams have not turned their back on the RB position due to this volatility (there are still clearly a ton of feature RBs) but understandably teams have shifted towards being able to do much more than just run the football which means you must limit what you ultimately offer Lamar Miller. You simply cannot over-extend yourself financially at RB knowing there's such a huge risk of your guy getting carted off the field and that really good RBs can be found in the middle rounds of the draft. If you're willing to spend as high as a 2nd rounder, you can get one of the best RBs in the draft these days! You cannot risk paying a player big money when there is such an enormous risk of getting him injured. Teams have realized this and have attempted to marginalize the RB position though diversification (RB-by-committee).

    At the end of the day, I think Miami has to decide whether Lamar Miller is capable of doing enough should they increase his role. He can certainly be an asset but I'm pretty sure he's not a feature player at least not to the extent that McCoy was in Philly, Charles was in KC, Peterson has been in Minnesota, etc. When you consider his potential and factor in the volatile position of RB and the uncertainty involved with him never having carried anywhere close to 275 carries in a year, I find it somewhat unlikely Miami will chase after him.

    The irony here is that with the market under-valuing RBs it's a great time to buy. You could take everything I said here and claim it's exactly why the Dolphins should re-sign Lamar Miller. You could easily argue that the market will not appreciate his value and that you can get a steal.

    This line of thinking may have been what led the Eagles to curiously sign multiple RBs last seasons. The problem is, they spent a lot of money and if you sign them you must obviously use them which the Eagles did not. We'll never know what the Eagles were really thinking.

    Nevertheless, it's a curious situation. I myself would love to see Lamar Miller back, especially with how well he caught the ball this year. That was his only flaw and it now appears to be fixed. If Miami doesn't have to offer a large contract, they probably should re-sign him.


    *EDIT

    Here is a list for the leaders in carries per game.

    http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...egory=RUSHING&conference=null&qualified=false
     
  24. RachelD

    RachelD Active Member

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    Excellent stuff you have there. I just wonder if Ajayi is going to be able to replace the production if we did let Miller walk, to replace a 1200 yard back with one guy who hardly ran last year is hard to fathom. The fact that the RB position is devalued is not a good enough reason for me not to pay the guy.
     
  25. RachelD

    RachelD Active Member

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    I wish we would have taken Gurley as well instead of staying where we were. I think if we did i'm sure we would be taking a receiver this year and i would love to have gotten my hands on Laquan Treadwell I think he is going to absolutely blow up the combine this year.
     
  26. Phins 4 Life

    Phins 4 Life New Member

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    Except Tannehill isn't Big Ben, Russell Wilson, or Aaron Rodgers. Leveon Bell and Marshawn Lynch have done good things for their teams. So yeah those teams do have elite RBs which have brought them success in the past. And before Bell the Steelers had Jerome Bettis. Another elite back. Miller isn't getting elite RB money. One good thing about under using Miller the last couple of years is perhaps the Dolphins may have masked how good a player he is. And those 3 QBs along with Luck and Brady this year are prime examples of playing at elite level even with bad pass blocking. Luck had injuries this year though. Something Tannehill fans say can't happen when given a bad offensive line.
     
  27. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Quite a few FAs out there that we should be able to get for a reasonable price if we go that route.

    Draugn, Starks, Powell, Ivory, Hightower would all be good additions.
     
  28. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    My hope is that Lamar sees what Adam Gase can do for him and wants to stick around. I know he's been upset about the lack of touches he's had. Hopefully we let him know those are days are in the past.

    Also, welcome to the forum!
     
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  29. RachelD

    RachelD Active Member

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    Thank You, It has been pretty awesome so far. I hope I haven't intimidated anybody so far lol
     
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  30. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Not Hardly!
     
  31. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Actually, Ronnie Hillman is also a pending UFA. Gase knows him of course. If we lose Miller, it would not surprise me if we signed Hillman.
     
  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Williams just isn't a very talented RB. I'd rather see him replaced as the #3 rather than making him the #2.
     
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  33. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    amen brother! If you have a good OL, then you can plug a lot of RB's back there to get production. I'd love to re-sign Miller for a reasonable contract. If not, you let him walk and invest those savings in OL and start a RB in the 3rd or 4th round. You can find good RB's in those rounds.
     
  34. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Sadly, I don't see Miller's return in the cards.

    Reason #1 - He's gonna get paid. I don't know if it would be wise to allocate a lot of money on him with Suh and RT's contracts
    Reason #2 - Ajayi's good, and you can always find running backs in the draft (cheap and effective option)
    Reason #3 - Vernon is a more pressing need. Conceivably, we could lose Wake and Vernon. Finding solid pass rushers is really challenging. Even highly drafted DEs are boom or bust.
    Reason #4 - I could not imagine Miller being happy with the Dolphins' organization. We used him so poorly this year; I could see him being happy to leave.
     
  35. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Ajayi is good, but he averaged like 3.8 yards per carry. Millers was much higher, so that would make him great
     
  36. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you here, but what if the new coach comes in and says "I love you man!. I can't believe they didn't use you more last your. You're a stud. I'm going to use you lost more in all different ways." I think that might change my mind.
     
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  37. jason8er

    jason8er Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    From what I've heard, Gase may have just done that already.
     
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  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I could see Dallas breaking the bank for Miller, but I'm not sure many other teams would. If Dallas doesn't overpay, I'd expect that our offer would be in the ball park of any other offer he's likely to get.
     
  39. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think saying, "I love you man" is easy to do. The way you show love in the NFL is through money. I would be shocked if we come in with the highest offer.

    Additionally, I don't think Gase would be the top coach for him to play under. I really think that he winds up in Dallas. Their line fits his style of running, and Dallas will commit to the run. Additionally, Dallas does not have a long term solution in house.
     
  40. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dallas just might draft Henry or Elliott also.....rookie deals..both studs...and i believe as long as Romo is under Center along with Dez Bryant and their other offensive weapons, I think Jerry Jones may try to emmulate the 90's Boys and bring in one of the 2 workhorse backs...I would love for us to be able to have Henry.
     
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