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Merge: Report: Joe Philbin wanted to replace Ryan Tannehill with Derek Carr

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by muskrat21, Jan 10, 2016.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Oh now you're acting like I'm doing the explaining for you? Dude, I gave only part of the solution. Which statistical techniques you use makes all the difference.

    Oh, and you get numbers out of parameter optimization. How you claim they aren't assigning numbers to anything is beyond me (not only contradicting yourself but contradicting the post you just agreed with).

    Anyway, let's move on. I've formed my opinion of you.
     
  2. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Maybe y'all need a stat-fight thread of your own.
     
  3. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    You didn't give any solution. All you've done is claimed ignorance.

    I've previously provided the basis for many people here to calculate on their own. I'm not going to write everything out. If you have questions about DVOA, passer rating, EPA, WPA, etc. feel free to contact the people that do it professionally. Spend a few days reading the Football Outsiders' almanacs. There is countless information out there that will explain how these things work. (FYI the idea that things are weighted is completely off-base).
     
  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Stringer Vs Cbrad. Each doing their argument style to the other that drives me crazy.

    Not sure I can root for either.

    [​IMG]

    ...but I'm not, not enjoying it....:shifty:
     
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  5. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Notice no ad-hominem?
     
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  6. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    This is in fact how it's done, based on my understanding of it.
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    There are no weights in DVOA.
     
  8. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    I thought that's what they were doing here?

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You'd never get those kinds of weights after parameter optimization (20%, 5%, 10% etc.. or the "4 points", "5 points", etc..). NEVER. Parameter optimization doesn't result in such clean numbers. They just fiddled around with some numbers by hand and chose those that fit their own intuition and worked well enough. Like I said.. subjective. It's obvious to anyone that understands math.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    There rarely is when two malfunctioning computers argue.........
     
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  11. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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  12. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    O-m-g
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hahaha

    My head hurts.
     
  14. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    All of this still comes down to partial derivatives. Basically when you have several variables, you imagine you can hold everything else steady (ceterus parabus) and then see how changing variable A effects variable B. Normally they are used when A and B are independent of each other, and are used in situations with relatively few variables.

    However in football rarely are A and B independent of each other. How the OL performs affects how the QB's ratings and how the QB performs affects the OL's ratings, let alone receivers, play calling, play design, blocking by non-OL (RBs and TEs), game situation ad nauseum.

    So while Laurence's post about FO and cbrad's and stringerbell's subsequent discussion might on the face seem an appeal to objective analysis, it really isn't. The tools can't do the job required, it's like trying to use an extension ladder as a hanglider. Discussing the merits of the stepladder doesn't alter the fact that it is unsuited for the job.

    I'm not enough of a stat-head to say what would work, but I do enough to know to say that football is far too complex to say if you improve Stat [X] by n amount then stat [Y] will improve by n x correlation.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Nothing like a good stat fight to kill a thread. LOL. Can we go back to talking about football again? Like, if Carr had come here and put up a sub-6ypa, how many people would have been calling for a new QB?
     
  16. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Carr is at least as good as Tannehill so you dump Tannehill and take another crack at it while you wait and see on Carr. And you save a ton of money in the process.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, yeah, I know, Carr is awesome. Check out the run stats, and they also include pass blocking stats in the chart:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

    So, Miami depended on the running back to break big runs to make the run game work, whereas Oakland got it done on the ground by depending on their oline. Oakland's oline also graded out far, far better in pass protection. So, you can't simply look at Carr, this season, without also looking at the oline. Interestingly enough, I believe Carr's oline graded pretty well last season, yet Carr put up a sub-6 ypa. So, it seems to indicate, in a fairly limited sample size, that having consistent production and protection from the oline allows a QB to be successful, even successful enough to make the Pro Bowl.

    I know, that's really weird.
     
  18. Laurence

    Laurence Banned

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    And all that is true, but how does the statistical projection compare to the "observational" models being bandied about, like for example when someone says, "if Ryan Tannehill's [insert external variable, such as the offensive line] was better, then he would..."

    Certainly you aren't saying we can place more credence in the latter than in the former.
     
  19. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Haha... this one was doomed from the start. Philbin = dumb coaching moves = Carr = ??? = present time = not happening ever.

    Basically just another 'don't like RT' one... again.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Why are you lumping me into the group? What I said is true. What you said is also generally correct but my argument from the outset was DVOA isn't objective (like you're saying).

    And my argument rests on nearly perfect evidence for that even without someone showing the formula: there is NO way they get the weights they do from any optimization method (which implicitly uses partial derivatives) unless someone adds subjective weights to them. No expected win probabilities can tease apart the contribution of the OL to a running back's performance, etc..

    As for what will work, the point is nothing will if you just use common stats. That was my entire argument starting in post #216.
     
  21. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If you watch them both just play the QB position, its hard not to see who has a brighter future.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  22. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Yeah... one has a team that drafts good and OL doesn't play like a hunk of Swiss cheese. Wonder which one.

    What is your prediction on Mariota and Winston?
     
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  23. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In the end, this isn't Madden. But if you somehow moved Tanny for a #2 or higher, and then drafted Carr (packaging the two two's to move up past the raiders), the team would be in a much better position.
     
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  24. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Yeah... but the Raiders could of done that too and re-jumped.
     
  25. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Well one has Mularkey as head coach, so im going to say Winston.
     
  26. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Well one has Mularkey as head coach, so im going to say Winston.
     
  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    This is a good example because it is situational.

    Every NFL team wants a good OL, very few have them. So having a QB who can elude pressure is a HUGE luxury.

    Why do you think R.Wilson prospers with a worse OL than RT?? Its not his run game, its not his Wrs, its not his defense....it is his pocket presence and playmaking ability.

    You put Ryan and Wilson on a team like the Bengals and maybe they are close to equal, but in most situations you want the QB who can do more with less.

    So yea, Marriota.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  28. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Yeah, Mariota if his legs don't get broken off because the rest of the team suks so bad. Plus, Winston will get ya fired.
     
  29. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Tannehill is so overrated by our fans, guy literally hasnt prpven anything in 4 years and of course most fans are aaying he still has to develop despite him being close to 30 years old. Carr is the superior QB by a long shot.
     
  30. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Carr is in the ProBowl. fwiw
     
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  31. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I would be excited if Carr was our QB.
     
  32. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I asked a Bengals fan if they would trade me Dalton for Tannehill, and he started laughing.
     
  33. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Well, they are equal in playoff wins. Why would they want RT when they have McElroy. I would have laughed too. Maybe he was laughing at the thought of the Dolphins getting rid of RT. Haha
     
  34. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Dalton certainly wouldn't be much better in Miami.




    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  35. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    How do their stats line up with our in OL play and Defense?

    Is his coach supportive? Maybe his fans are behind him too. Y'all sure are not voting for RT any time soon. Geez.
     
  36. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Took to year 5 for that to even make sense.
     
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  37. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Carr is clearly better then Tannehill and its not a debate. Its only a debate for Phins fans who view an average QB as something more.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Apparently everyone decided to ignore this post.

    Not surprising, when I and a couple others have been arguing for years that oline drives the bus.
     
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  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Drives the bus for who?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Drives the bus for the offense. You need the offensive line to do their jobs.
     

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