Nobody really is as quick to admit they were wrong as they are to pat themselves on the back. It would be illogical. When you evaluate a player or a situation and come to a conclusion, you do so based on a preponderance of evidence. If the evidence already lends itself toward a certain conclusion, you don't need to see much further evidence in order to feel like you've seen confirmation. You see the incremental evidence within the context of all the other evidence that lent toward a conclusion. On the other hand you recognize that a lot of football "success" or "failure" is 1) perceived more than real, 2) highly circumstantial, 3) ascending in younger players, and 4) sometimes just outright random. Thus if you're seeing incremental evidence which flies in the face of the body of evidence you've already evaluated, you naturally want to see a lot more evidence before you conclude that what you saw before was more subject to those sources of uncertainty than what you're seeing now. To sum up, anyone who is any good would naturally be a lot slower to admit they are wrong than to confirm they are right.
I won't argue the points you made here, they are fair, but I will say that you are leaving off a D category; D) People who think he is what he is, an avg QB, an avg QB who would be hurting the team next year with his huge salary increase, an avg QB getting paid like an elite QB. Also having serious concerns that he is not the leader that you need as the signal caller, and suspect performances in crucial situations.
I would probably be alright with the conclusion that Tannehill was "average". Some things that bother me still are the fact guys like Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Brian Hoyer, Marcus Mariota, Brandon Weeden, A.J. McCarron and Josh McCown all had higher passer ratings. That's in addition to the "names" we'd come across that all had higher passer ratings...Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger, Phil Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler. His passer rating performance was about identical with the likes of Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Thing is, his passer rating was basically a stone's throw away from guys like Case Keenum, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford and even Blaine friggin Gabbert. And how much solace do we take from his being better than an ancient Matt Hasselbeck, an ancient Peyton Manning, a rookie Jameis Winston, a struggling Joe Flacco, Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick, a coked out Johnny Manziel, or guys that probably just blew their last shots like Ryan Mallett, Nick Foles or Matt Cassel? Those are the only guys that had a lot of reps that you could look at their passer ratings and say yeah I think there's a clear separation between Tannehill's results and theirs. That's kind of depressing. You have to hope Rosenthal is right on here, that the combination of a good OL (which Tannehill arguably hasn't had since he's been here), actual quarterback teaching (which you can argue Tannehill hasn't had since he's been here) and maybe a better fit in the surrounding cast...can lead him to do better. Because boy, does he need to do better to be even close to worth what Miami are paying.
My apologies as I didn't mean to imply you stated (or even inferred) he was dishonest. That part was my own two cents and not in response to anything you said. Was just talking. He has admitted he was wrong, Dion Jordan maybe. IT was someone prominent
I don't think I would be wrong to say that it's taken up to a decade for him to admit he was wrong on something, lol.
Tanne really needs to read and react better in the pocket. There's been several film breakdowns where you see that he had several options to go with the ball. Had he just read, processed quicker and let it go, it could have been a completion. He would just hold onto it and take a sack. That's an area where he really needs improvement. Now, he can certainly and understandably be gun shy from all the sacks and constant pressure from playing behind a dog s--t OL and I think good coaching can really help in that regard, so I'm hopin'.
Currently he is the 12th highest paid QB, which isn't too far off from average. [TABLE="class: position-table sortable, width: 686"] [TR] [TH="align: center"]Player[/TH] [TH="align: center"]Team[/TH] [TH="align: center"]Total Value[/TH] [TH="align: center"]Avg./Year[/TH] [TH="align: center"]Total Guaranteed[/TH] [TH="align: center"]Avg. Guar./Year[/TH] [TH="align: center"]% Guaranteed[/TH] [TH="align: center"]Free Agency[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Joe Flacco[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Ravens[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$66,400,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$22,133,333[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$44,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$14,666,667[/TD] [TD="align: center"]66.3%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2022 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Aaron Rodgers[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Packers[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$110,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$22,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$54,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$10,800,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]49.1%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2020 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Russell Wilson[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Seahawks[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$87,600,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$21,900,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$31,700,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$7,925,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]36.2%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2020 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Ben Roethlisberger[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Steelers[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$87,400,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$21,850,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$34,250,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$8,562,500[/TD] [TD="align: center"]39.2%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2020 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Eli Manning[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Giants[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$84,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$21,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$36,500,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$9,125,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]43.5%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2020 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Philip Rivers[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Chargers[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$83,250,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$20,812,500[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$37,500,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$9,375,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]45.0%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2020 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Cam Newton[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Panthers[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$103,800,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$20,760,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$41,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$8,200,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]39.5%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2021 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Matt Ryan[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Falcons[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$103,750,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$20,750,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$42,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$8,400,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]40.5%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2019 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Tom Brady[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Patriots[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$41,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$20,500,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$28,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$14,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]68.3%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2020 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Drew Brees[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Saints[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$100,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$20,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$40,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$8,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]40.0%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2017 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Kirk Cousins[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Redskins[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$19,953,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$19,953,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$19,953,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$19,953,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]100.0%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2017 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="align: center"]Ryan Tannehill[/TD] [TD="align: center"]Dolphins[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$77,000,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$19,250,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$21,500,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]$5,375,000[/TD] [TD="align: center"]27.9%[/TD] [TD="align: center"]2021 UFA[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/
Good point. And it's also important to note the percentage of guaranteed money. Miami can get away from Tannehill after this year, if necessary. If necessary being that Tannehill doesn't perform any better with Adam Gase.
One could find examples of that from every QB and say similar things. Every QB takes sacks and on almost all of them there was somewhere he could have gone or could have thrown the ball away. Yet every QB who has played for any appreciable period of time has taken hundreds of sacks that could have been avoided. For his career, Tannehill has taken a sack once in every 12.2 pass attempts. Aaron Rodgers has taken a sack once in every 13.2 pass attempts. That's pretty damn close. Does Rodgers also need to read and react better in the pocket? Has Rodgers' pass protection been so much worse than Tannehill's that he reads and reacts well in the pocket but nonetheless takes sacks at approximately the same rate? I kinda doubt it. The point is that given the film and time, one could probably make an hour long video for every QB exclusively consisting of plays in which they took sacks that, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and some All-22 video one could say he shouldn't have taken the sack.
This is a misleading stat, as his first 2 years are much lower, my point is, that in 2017 he starts accounting for 20 mil per year, in 16 he accounts for 11.5 mil, in 17 he accounts for 20.3.
Even the $20.3 million only moves him up 2 slots and by 2017 there is bound to be at least 1 or 2 new QB deals which will likely push him down.
It's not misleading at all. Miami made the contract that way. If he hasn't shown he is a top level QB by that point, then Miami can get out of the contract with little dead money being held over. You can kick Ryan Tannehill down for many things, his play particularly, but the contract that was set up was very well done by Aponte/Tannenbaum.
Its an important part about the sack percentage that sometimes goes overlooked. Yes, RT has been sacked the most since he came into the league. However, Russell Wilson (8.6%)and Alex Smith (8.4%) have both been sacked at a much higher rate, and the "leader" in that period is actually Colin Kapernick, who's been sacked on 9.0% of his dropbacks, compared to Tannehill's 7.6%. As you mentioned, Rodgers is very close, with 7.0%, and Cam Newton has been sacked at 7.3%. And he's only been in the league for two years, but Teddy Bridgewater is getting sacked at a 8.9% rate so far too. The point is, that even though Ryan does need to get better at avoiding pressure, despite the hellish time he's been forced to deal with due to the crap OL, he's among a number of other notable QBs in how often he goes down.
12th highest doesn't tell the whole story though. If you have a bunch of people making around $20 million, but they're separated by $10k each, well you could be 12th and making like 100k less than the top guy. Just an extreme example. He probably is playing in the $16m area, where Alex Smith, Dalton and Palmer lay. All 3 of those guys have outplayed Tanny. But it is what it is.
My initial point wasn't about the contract, it was about him escalating to 20 mil per starting in 17. I agree it was a very good, team friendly contract, but that was never my point.
Actually, by almost any measure, Tannehill and Palmer have put up almost identical stats since Ryan came into the league in 2012, and that's even directly comparing RT's rookie through fourth years to a guy who was in his 9th season in 2012. Its fair to say that Dalton has outplayed him and at a similar age, but its not by a ton, and its with a TON more help and better coaching. Give me the choice of either one in a vacuum, and RT is the easy choice IMO.
But Tanny wasn't paid for his 2012-2013 seasons. He was paid for 2014. And Palmer the last two years has been off the charts (save for injuries). Anyway, I'm not arguing the point that Tanny is grossly overpaid, just slightly, and that's fine. with QBs you're on your rookie contract, a backup contract, or you're making $17m and up.
I don't want to put words into any particular poster's mouth, but we've certainly had multiple people on the board who say that if they can't have a surefire top end QB, they'd rather just have nothing. Its not a position that I can agree with or really understand, but its out there.
One can find examples of this from every QB? Wow, that's a great point. Regardless, whether, at times, it happens to other QBs is a general, pointless and empty comment. And more pointless stats. Yeyyy! Especially pointless again comparing him to a Rodgers. The devil is in the details. Rodgers makes tons of plays from within the pocket. Are you able to figure out the thousand of factors being ignored with your stats? I am sorry, dude. OK, Tanne is Marinoesque in the pocket with reading and reacting. Hey, I'm not a particle of Anti-Tannehill. I am behind him and rooting for him. I mentioned that I think these things can be improved with good coaching, etc. It's ok to have some criticisms or point out areas where he needs to improve. I think it's pretty much accepted by both sides of the Tanne debates that, as with a lot of QBs, there are areas where he needs to improve, no? Do you think there are any areas where he needs to improve or is it all golden now? Please share.
So far Tanny has bee paid perfectly by his production if you go by cap numbers. he doesn't hit $20 million until 2017. 2016 he is a $12 million quarterback. Which is a little underpaid. People keep on bringing up the $20 million mark, however he isn't that until 2017 through 2020.
For me it depends on which is arguably more likely: 1) stay with average QBs for long enough that you succeed in building a great surrounding cast to win the SB, or 2) spend resources on trying to find a great QB (repeatedly if necessary) so that after you've found him you have an easier time putting together a championship team. It's so difficult to build a great team in a salary cap era, so I'd prefer at least a consistently above average QB, even if he's not great. So for me, if Tannehill doesn't improve this year and stays average I'd prefer to gamble on a new QB than give him a long term contract. I mean.. once you find the right QB everything else is much easier, so that's definitely a strategy worth considering (and only a SB win counts for me as success.. don't want tons of playoffs without the title).
If you are thinking logically you would take Dalton in a heartbeat, though like 95% of Dolphin fans would probably take Tannehill.
What would you say to Bears fans: A. Stay the course, who are you gonna replace him with anyway? B. Poor bastards C. What do I think about the Bears? I don't give two ****s about the Bears. D. Cutler would win multiple SBs on the Seahawks, Bengals, Broncos, etc too
Thats a pretty high standard to have man, especially as a fan who's appeared in exactly one playoff game in the last 14 years, and hasn't been competative in a Divisional Round game in over 20. The Fins last appeared in a Super Bowl when I was 7, and no other team I follow in any sport has appeared in a title game or series in my lifetime. Lets take things one step at a time. I'm also very much not a black or white kind of person. There are lots of shades of grey when it comes to success in sports.
I feel ya.. but it's no coincidence that the degree to which I hate a team is directly proportional to how many more SB wins they have than the Dolphins. For me that's what counts most. Except the Jets.. who are at #1 on that list.
That also applies to life in general, something I always say, black or white is rare, life is just shades of grey.
I agree getting a top QB is the best way to win a SB. However the best way to win a title is to be consistently in the playoffs. You don't see many Cinderella teams winning championships. Most of the time the championships get divided up between the teams that are consistently in the playoffs. Teams that are built around great QBs are consistently in th eplayoffs. teams built around great units like the 1985 Bears (D), 1989 Redskins (OL) or 2000 Ravens (D) are usually one and done because it is much harder to keep entire units performing at elite level than keeping an elite individual at a high level.