First, take a look at how different Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller have played this year in games vs the division and then outside of it. Tannehill vs AFC East 5 Games 133 completions 231 attempts 57.58% 1455 yards 7 TD 8 INT 72.0 rating 6.30 YPA 10.93 YPC Tannehill vs the rest of the league 7 games 135 completions 205 attempts 65.9% 1624 yards 15 TD 3 INT 108.2 rating 7.92 YPA 12.03 YPC Miller vs AFC East 5 games 40 attempts 125 yards 3.13 YPC 3 TD Miller vs the rest of the league 7 games 99 attempts 555 yards 5.61 YPC 2 TD As to why we see these huge differences? I think that first and foremost, each team is led by a defensive minded coach who is very good at what he does. Hoodie and Rex both know us really well from playing the Fins twice year after year. Bowles was on the Dolphins staff, and while he wasn't here with most of our current players or coaches, he has connections to the team and more insight than most other coaches would. Secondly, our offensive system is now proven to be garbage. It worked for a while when it was new and people hadn't seen it before, but once the rest of the teams had a chance to plan for it, Lazor was done for. Our opponents have realized that if they focus on covering the area within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, our offense is just totally shut down and helpless. If they can do that plus blitz with LBs or DBs at the same time, like all three of our rivals can and do, then we're up a creek. Third, in our five divisional games so far, we've faced holes of 27-0, 27-7, 19-0, 19-7 & 35-7 that we've had to try and crawl out of. We've been getting our butts kicked in all three phases of the game, and the offense has had to go off script and get desperate, which makes the passing game scattershot and the running game non existant. I don't see a fix for this for the rest of the year, but I think that if you look at how well Tannehill and Miller have played in the seven games against teams outside of the AFC East, it's obvious that both guys can play well, and haven't regressed, like the media narrative claims. There are just problems to be fixed with the coaching scheme, player usage, and the fact that we happen to be in a really rough division that most teams would struggle with.
All 3 of our opponents in the AFC East have really good front 7's and are good at pressuring the QB. They are able to exploit the weaknesses we have at OL, neutralize our running game and put Tannehill in bad situations.
Please compare these stats with those of other QBs and RBs so it's clear that this trend is about the Dolphins being bad rather than the AFC East simply being tough.
I can do some digging at home (although this is your thread). In general though, these types of things are worthless without context. It doesn't look good, but there's no way you can draw conclusions about the QB without fair comparison. It's certainly to be expected that all QBs and RBs would struggle against the league's better defenses.
My broad point is just that people, both fans and media, are saying that both players have done poorly this season. I think that they've only done poorly vs a small handfull of teams. The season isn't over, but if you were to extrapolate their numbers vs the teams outside of the division over 16 games, those are both Pro Bowl stats. Saying that they suck because they've played poorly vs the East is short sighted.
Oh, it's very short sighted. I took this for another anti-QB thread so my apologies. I'll be honest, that conversation is not a very intellectually honest one at this point. Stats of any sort really need context.
I can say that our starting guards, the literal worst starting tandem in the league, are specifically terrible when we play in the division. The guards suck as it is, put them against Marcel dareus, Mo wilkerson, richardson, etc, they're that much worse.
So now we're marginalizing what is essentially the most important thing on the "To Do" list when trying to get into the playoffs and win the Super Bowl i.e. win the division ..... one which is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. Got it.
Are you suggesting that all divisions are equal? Beyond the permenant disadvantage that we have we geography and climate, we have three rivals who have some of the best defenses in the league. To say that the Dolphins task of overcoming that and winning the division is no harder than a team in the AFC South or NFC East for example, is just being pig headed.
Where on earth did you get that out of what I said? This thread is basically uttering, "Well Tannehill is decent outside of the division so that's why there's promise!" It's the typical "adjustment" variety forum fodder. The division is easily the most important aspect when it comes to making a legitimate run. If you don't have a QB who can thrive within it, then the chances of making any noise is few and far between. Btw, what is the combined win % of the teams he's faced outside of the AFCE?
I was trying to avoid having this become the 501st Tannehill sucks/doesn't suck debate thread and to not sidetrack the OP's point for starting this thread.
It's simple; coaching. This has been discussed before, and it's well known. Opposing coaches could see through our schemes after the first go around. What you need to look at is how we did the first go round versus a rematch.I'll give you a hint, our production dropped big time. Not a coincidence. Our schemes were vanilla and uncomplicated. Nor did we adapt much, so it was easy to key in on what we were doing.
Updating the numbers after the Giants game Ryan Tannehill vs rest of NFL 8 games 160 completions 246 attempts 65.0% 160 yards 16 TD 3 INT 104.3 rating 7.56 YPA 11.63 YPC Lamar Miller vs rest of NFL 8 games 111 attempts 644 yards 5.80 YPC 4 TD
Here's another interesting fact- Tannehill scrambled more last night than he has in 12 prior games this season...and he looked really damn good doing it. His receivers didn't help him out much since I think they dropped every pass he made on those downs (mostly Landry), but Tannehill played like a winning QB last night. But that's not what we saw against AFC East rivals...he was flat-footed in the pocket for every single one of those match-ups. But it's more than that. Tannehill also went downfield more last night than he has in any other game this year, plus he properly executed the read option and threw some very accurate deep balls. And he actually saw those TD-scoring opportunities as well...if his guy had 1:1 coverage, he let the ball sail. Where's that QB been for the first 12 games of the year? Now remember, I'm one of those rotten Tannehill-haters and I have been all along...but I could get behind the guy we saw last night. Because that version of him has a chance to actually win ballgames and challenge this division, but we need to see him more than a couple of times per season.
I've been defending Tannehill as being someone who deserves a fair shot next year because I think as he plays more games, we'll start to see him play like he did last night more often than not. Miami just needs to find a coaching staff that recognizes how talented he is and who will develop him accordingly. If anything, he just needs to be put in a position where he gets to play more aggressively like he did last night. It'd be a real waste to throw away what opportunity they have with him.
If tannehill played every game like he did last night I'd be willing to bet there'd be a very different opinion of him. He was excellent, and it's because of how well he played in the pocket. He extended plays, kept his eyes down field and was good on 3rd downs. Unfortunately, the narrative is the same because he overthrew one pass and they lost. Sent from my SM-G925P using Tapatalk
I still can't agree...as badly as I want to...because we just haven't seen that version of Tannehill enough. I mean, it wasn't just one little thing he improved on last night; it was literally everything that people have complained about for his entire career. So for me to pencil him in as next season's starter, I would have to see that same kind of effort in the last three games. And honestly, I don't care if we win or lose...I am being a lot more positive today than I was in his perfect QB rating against Texas. But that's because he was the one making things happen last night and not the receivers. And don't get me wrong....I desperately want him to be the guy. I just can't see waiting 2-3 more years to see it. Either he can play with that mental clarity or a weekly basis or he can't....but the QB we saw last night would have won about 4 of the losses we had this season. It's almost bizarre....who was that masked man?
I think we can look at this game and see a microcosm of what Tannehill deals with. In the first half, when we were actually running the ball, the oline still allowed pressure but it wasn't jailbreak pressure. There were lanes for THill to maneuver into to avoid the rush. As the second half progressed, we got further and further away from the run game, and their defense teed off on our line. The pocket collapsed quicker and quicker leaving no place for THill to even move to. This has always been my problem when people say so-n-so's oline is rated worse!!! Not all pass rush pressure is the same. An oline can allow pressure on every play and be rated worse than an oline that allows a jailbreak 50% of the plays.
We haven't had one game like this where so many things went wrong. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
While reading a few things, my mind went back to this thread, and I realized that I had never updated it to reflect the end of season stats. RT vs AFC East: 157/268, 58.58%, 1803 yards, 9 TD, 8 INT, 77.7 rating Other 10 games: 206/318, 64.8%, 2405 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT, 98.06 rating For his career, the numbers look like this: 24 games vs AFC East: 511/888, 57.55%, 5523 yards, 30 TD, 25 INT, 75.5 rating Other 40 games: 881/1360, 64.77%, 9937 yards, 57 TD, 29 INT, 91.59 rating
The Joe Philbin Effect. Those teams all have good defenses and bright defensive minds roaming the sidelines. Phiblin could never out-coach them. They were used to us, and knew how to attack us. I'd expect things to be different with Adam Gase in charge. He'll know how to attack their defenses, and he'll know how to create mismatches. He'll call plays that will put the players in the best position to succeed. No more round pegs and square holes.
Bottom line is this... and this isn't some sort of revelation or anything, but if we want to make the playoffs, we've got to be better in our own division. It's that simple. Your division knows you best. You play them twice a year. Beating them will make your path to the playoffs much easier. I think its been pretty simple, we've been outcoached in our own division for years and years now. It can be somewhat easier to gameplan against out of division opponents as they aren't studying us as much, but your division foes know you and your tendencies inside and out, especially if they have good coaching staffs that know the path to the playoffs starts in your own division. I don't think it's a matter of one or two players struggling against the division, it's a team thing. IMO, it all starts with the staff. If you're not putting players in the best positions to succeed, then you've already lost. The fact that RT's numbers are down in division, and so were Millers, and our defense probably as well shows it's not one player, it's a team thing, its a preparation thing. Hopefully that changes with Philbin gone. Because if this TEAM, which includes this QB, this defense, this OL, doesn't improve inside the AFCE, we're going nowhere.
Its real simple. When your oline blows and you're not going to run the ball and your QB can't audible out of the play based on what the defense is showing, then the teams you play the most....who all happen to be helmed by defensive guys....are going to beat you a lot. Its not choking. Its not about being not clutch. Its not about not having "it". Its not magic. If anyone says otherwise, they have an agenda.
Exactly! Our AFCE opponents have the coaching and personnel to put our players in poor situations. Too many fans and media lack the analytic ability to do more than say, "this player sucks", but history has shown that even HOF players in crappy situations struggle. We were perennial playoff contenders when we had Shula even though we didn't have great players everywhere. And we were SB champions when we had Shula/Beathard. (Hopefully Gase is all we're hoping he is and we get back to where we once were. I see the talent across the league as closer than in the pre-FA days. IMO now it's more about avoiding the holes in your roster that come around due to regular FA losses by finding players that fit what you want to do).
