One more area Miami's QB isn't doing enough...

Lol.

Relax and pop another Valium.


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While I certainly understand your argument for running Tannehill more. The reality is it wasn't this front office or coaching staff which drafted Tannehill in the first place.

They hope to get more out of Tannehill this year, but I don't think Gase will feel obligated to go with Tannehill beyond this coming season if Tannehill fails to take a giant leap up as an NFL QB.

Tannehill's contact for 2016 and the desire to see if Gase can get more from him is the reason the Dolphins decided to stick with him this season. With the big money in his contract starting in 2017, this is a make or break year for Tannehill, IMO.

Perhaps having Tannehill run the ball more often will be part of the game plan. Yet Tannehill being a better leader, more aware in the pocket and being productive in the fourth quarter of close games is more important than him running the ball.

 

Nice job OP!

I thought I would do a little research of my own to see if a QBs rushing attempts correlated with a team's winning % so I took the following QBs and calculated their team's W-L record and calculated the winning % when the starting QB rushed for 2 or less attempts in a game and when the starting QB rushed for 3 or more attempts in a game and here is what I found:

rpg = Rushing Attempts In a Game

Ryan Tannehill W-L record as starter:
8-20 = 2 or less rpg = .286 winning %
21-15 = 3 or more rpg = .583 winning %

Cam Newton
0-3 = 2 or less RPG = .000 winning %
45-29-1 = 3 or more RPG = .608 winning %

Russell Wilson W-L record:
3-5 = 2 or less rpg = .375 winning %
40-8 = 3 or more rpg = .833 winning %

Aaron Rodgers
23-18 = 2 or less rpg = .561 winning %
57-21 = 3 or more rpg = .731 winning %

Alex Smith
15-24 = 2 or less rpg = .385 winning %
53-28-1 = 3 or more rpg = .654 winning %

Jay Cutler
22-41 = 2 or less rpg = .349 winning %
45-26 = 3 or more rpg = .556 winning %

Tom Brady
90-45 = 2 or less rpg = .667 winning %
82-6 = 3 or more rpg =.932 winning %

Peyton Manning
126-75 = 2 or less rpg = .627 winning %
60-4 = 3 or more rpg = .938 winning %

OVERALL, when one of the above QBs rushed for 2 or fewer attempts in a game their team’s record:
287 Wins 231 Losses = .554 winning %

OVERALL, when one of the above QBs rushed for 3 or more attempts in a game their team’s record:
403 Wins 137 Losses 2 Ties = .746 winning %

Interesting…when the QB rushed for 3 or more attempts in a game the team’s winning % increased by .192 % …Over the course of a season that comes to an extra 3.07 WINS in a season. Would turn an 8-8 record to 11-5!

NOTES

* These are the only QBs I researched (except for Tyrod Taylor who never rushed for less than 3 attempts in a game). This sample size seemed sufficient to me. If anyone else wants to pick it up from here be my guest.
* Incredible that the two QBs considered the least mobile (Brady and Manning) their combined record is 142-10 (.934 winning %) when rushing 3 or more attempts per game.
* I did not research how many of the rushes were by design and how many were avoiding the rush.

Thoughts

Of course when looking at over 1,000 games not all played out in the same manner. Having said that I speculate some of the things that may have led to a significant difference in a team's winning % when a QB rushes for 3 or more attempts per game are:

* Defense cannot fully commit to rushing the QB.
* Defenses will have to consider cost/benefit of blitzing or dropping extra defenders into coverage if the QB makes them pay with his feet.
* The QB has turned a negative play (sack) into a positive play...a QB that avoids a sack on 3rd down and is able to rush for a 1st down is similar to getting a turnover for his team.
* My assumption is many of those rushes are a QB converting 1[SUP]st[/SUP] downs and moving the chains or scoring a TD increasing the winning %. (more analysis needed)

Load the cart. The horses are harnessed and ready to go!

 

All those things mentioned must involve the QB and coach, so it's not just Tannehill. That combo needs to work, but those points I listed are the ones I'll be looking to see measurable improvements in.

 

Good research! Only question I have is how many of those were runs and how many were QB sneaks or QB kneels. Because if QB kneels are included it's pretty obvious you'll see a big effect. If QB sneaks are included that may not speak to the original argument much. It would also explain why Brady has so many "attempts".

 

I am not disagreeing terribly much with you.

For me the important thing is that Tannehill's rushing should be viewed purely as a tool to help open up his passing game. Once he rushes enough to make the opposition keep an LB back in a spy role, then the rushing has done its job. To.a large extent you can get similar effect on the opposition just by using a more traditional running game more consistently too.

I view worrying about any QBs rushing as worrying about the cherry on top of the cake. The cake still is, and will be as I see it, the passing game.

Also as others have pointed out QB rushing isn't all that well captured by the bulk stats. As I see it QB rushing can be broken into:-
A) Designed rushes/read option rushes. Plays designed to have the QB as an open field rusher.
B) QB sneaks. Short yardage pushes designed to gain a yard or two.
C) Jail breaks. Where a QB escapes from pressure
D) Scrambles. Where a QB rushes because the receivers are covered.
E) Kneel downs.

I think that B and E situations should be discounted because they are not plays that will set up anything in the passing game.
As for A type runs, I think RT has shown pretty good ability in those situations, but his number has been called very rarely.
In type C situations, RT hasn't shown very much escapability, but when a lot of the pressure is being let through by the guards it can be hard to get a true gauge on his ability to make things happen. From what I've seen of Tannehill I'd coach him to look downfield for a pass than use his legs if he escapes pressure. I think he has higher value as a thrower than running in chaos.
In type D situations, he definitely has been coached to hang in the pocket no matter what. I hope Gase gives him a green light to leg it out if nothing is developing and he has the running lane.

 

I agree with this. I mean we're kinda at a point where he just needs to pick something and do it well. I don't care if he runs 2 inches or 200 yds. I just want to see points on the board, passes completed, and first downs. I mean we've been patient. I'm tired of patient. Much more patience and I'll be a cardiac patient.

 

Nice job Adam I appreciate that work...only confirms things for me...I wonder what his qb rating is when he rushes for more than three times..not asking you to do that but I would bet it's better.

 

has to be on the WR too right? I think if i were running the route I would be thinking i got to get to the 10 for a first down, and not stop at the 9.

 

Young would scrap the play that was called AFTER the snap and take off. He wouldn't change the play pre snap. You seem to somehow be reading it as Young is audibling to a QB run. DJ and Young are both saying he is scrapping aka forgetting about the play that's called after the ball is snapped and running ON HIS OWN based on his INSTINCTS. Has absolutely nothing to do with what play was called, having the ability to audible or the coach. Has EVERYTHING to do with the QB making the decision to run on his own based on what he sees from the defense. Thill doesn't do this. He relies on the design of the play. DJ and many others are saying he should improvise on his own when the defense warrants it. It's not a coach thing.

 

exactly, that little clock in mind that says "times is up, time to get out of here." or at least throw it away.

 

Yes sir. Thill throws on the run really well to especially to his right so why he doesn't run more is beyond me. Or at least scramble. I'm not saying he should be Houdini and break 3 tackles but there's been plenty of times in key spots where he's had running room to pick up a 1st down and instead he chooses to try a low percentage pass. That's on Thill not the coaches. I don't care how dumb Philbin is, he wasn't telling Thill to forego the easy 1st to throw it with the game on the line. It's called being a playmaker. Philbin somehow didn't turn Rodgers into a mechanical robot. And how Fin D came away with the impression what Steve Young or DJ said about Young improvising after the snap has anything to do with Thill being allowed to audible is beyond me. Me thinks he has an agenda that gets in his way of common goddamned sense lol

 

Excellent post. Love the last comment haha

 

I think everyone is overlooking, still, the fact that Philbin was actively using Tannehill as a scapegoat, and didn't have his back. You really think Tannehill is going to routinely scrap the play, whether before or after the snap, when your head coach is trying to get rid of you?

 

I dunno what thill running has to do with Philbin wanting to get rid of him. He never benched him so it doesn't really matter if he did or didn't want Thill. I'm just glad Philbin is gone but I can't blame Thill not using his feet to make plays on Philbin. Thill rolled out of the pocket on a designed rollout tonight and threw a perfect pass to Stills who should've scored a td. And then ofcourse Cameron does what Cameron has done since joining the Fins, drops an easy td. Thill looked good tonight from what I seen. I stopped watching in the 2nd qtr but he looked good the first 3-4 drives. On the negative the rest of the team looked like the dog **** I expected coming into this year. We will be lucky to win 7 games this year. Real lucky.

 

Yeah, Tannehill can run if given the opportunity, but damn, I'd be thrilled if they just rolled him out of the pocket more like on the throw to Stills. He really does a great job at that.

 

The problem with designed rollouts is it eliminates half the field.

OH wait, maybe that's not such a bad thing

Some interesting numbers on rollouts during the 2013 season (when the "new model" of QB was all the rage).

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/rollouts-vs-straight-dropbacks/

 

Yea, that is what I kept on hearing. I never believed it.

 

, but what are QB ratings on play action passes compared to normal?
Just curious

 

It has a ton to do with it. Your QB has to know that the coach is going to support him when he goes off script. Tannehill knew Philbin wouldn't. I don't think it's really all that hard to understand.

 

It's not hard to understand no. It's also not hard to understand why Thill doesn't get a free pass for not using his feet more. In the heat of the battle he's not thinking or shouldn't be thinking what the coach will think if he breaks out of the pocket and makes a play. Not even Philbin is going to get upset if Thill makes Plays with his feet. Now that Philbin is gone I hope thill will make more plays. I just don't think thill reluctance to run is all on Philbin. No coach is going to get upset over a QB picking up a crucial 1st down with his feet. I understand your point but in the heat of competition a playmaker is going to react on instincts. I'm not sure thill has that natural instinct to get out of trouble and make a play out of nothing. We see glimpses of it tho so it's in there. I think Thill will have a good year this year. He's got the weapons and millions of reasons to produce.

 

No reasonable coach but I think with hindsight we can agree Philbin was a whack job getting his knickers in a twist over gum wrappers and the likes.

 

I think this is a good post, unfortunately it will get passed over..

When you evaluate a QB thoroughly your looking for instinctive behaviors as well as the other stuff.

 

It's not hard to understand. Why you would expect a young QB to blatantly disregard the coaches and go off script, knowing full well said coaches are trying to replace him?

You guys are completely disregarding basic human nature.

 

I forgot the game or the player, I do remember someone having an improvisational play where they got good success, which I remember being a touchdown during preseason. Sherman laid into him when he got back on the field for not following the play.

I wish I remembered more, however watching the guy being yelled at for being successful is what stuck out to me.

 

We all want to see that confidence.

The problem is neither you or DJ (or numerous others) are realistic about the circumstances with which Thill has to operate in.

You want Thill to be a leader, when the last HC didn't want player leaders.
You want Thill to improvise, when the last OC wouldn't even let him audible.
You want Thill to escape a pocket, when the pocket isn't breached but collapses on all sides.
You want Thill to deal with interior pressure, when every QB other than Wilson folds under interior pressure including Brady & Rodgers.


Everyone of us wants the results to be better. Every. One. Of. Us. The difference is you guys are literally ignoring the very real handcuffs that Thill has to operate with and want him to produce like QBs without those handcuffs.

Ask yourselves this....why was one of the first things Gase talked about with Thill was letting him audible and getting his back?

 

I think you have this backwards.

It's precisely when you really think the coaches are trying to replace you despite staying on script up till that point that you're more likely to go off script and do whatever you need to do to audition for the next job, which in the NFL mostly means proving something on the field.

It's when the coaches are still more or less on your side that you're more likely to stay on script. So I'm more willing to accept your argument during the time the coaches were still supportive of Tannehill.

 

Nobody said go off script.

Unless the script says stand there even if everyone is covered and there is a defender barreling down at you unblocked.

Improvise doesn't mean going off the reservation or audibles.

 

No.

You'll stay on script if you think you'll be benched if you don't.

 

I disagree in Tannehill's case because he previously stayed on script, meaning he has no reason to think by staying on script any further the coaches will want him more.

I'd agree with you if Tannehill strayed off script before and then thought he needed to stay on script more or he'll be benched. But you yourself keep pointing out he had to stay on script before, so no I think resnor has it backwards.

 

What you're saying here doesn't even make a little sense. When you've done what was asked of you, INCLUDING to not scramble and use your legs when plays breakdown, and the coaches are still trying to replace you, why would you ever, EVER, go against them, and go off script?

That not how people work.

 

Yeah, they did, when they cited Young "scrapping" plays to run.

 

Yeah actually I've seen this stuff happen before, not in the NFL, but in other contexts. Yes that's how a good number of people work. They try their best to please, but if it doesn't work and they find out they're being pushed out despite trying to please they lose respect and stop doing what they're told.

 

It's also very real for a player to not want to be labeled uncoachable. If the coaches are already making you the scapegoat, you think it's reasonable to think that a player will give them more ammo?

 

And many people don't react that way.