The view from the bottom of the AFC East

I’ll just drop a few factoids on you. One of these is guaranteed to offend, I promise…

(1) During the Philbin-Tannehill era, Miami only won 8 of their 24 divisional games.
(2) Never once did the team finish with a divisional record above .500.
(3) Never once have they won @ NE.
(4) Never once have they won @ Buffalo.
(5) Never once have they beaten the Jets at home in Miami.
(6) Tannehill’s career passer rating against the division is 74.7.

It’s cliché, but for several reasons divisional games are most important. And they tend to be slugfests. Divisional games offer the toughest test, both physically and mentally. It’s no surprise then that these games are where Miami has fallen behind. To get a big picture perspective here is a look at the divisional records of the AFC East during the last 4 years.

Pats >> 18-6 (.750)
Bills >> 13-11 (.542)
Jets >> 9-15 (.375)
Fins >> 8-16 (.333)

Miami has to get it’s *** in gear if they are going to be any sort of contender under this new regime. They must find a way to start winning these games. And the trends are not good. Last year, Miami sunk to a new low, meanwhile the Jets and Bills both got stronger.

2015 Standings:

1) Pats (4-2 in division, 8-2 outside)
2) Jets (3-3 in division, 7-3 outside)
3) Bills (4-2 in division, 4-6 outside)
4) Fins (1-5 in division, 5-5 outside)

The Pats were good all around, no surprise there. The Bills gained ground inside the division. The Jets were great outside the division. And then you see Miami at the bottom. Ugh. Despite not being that bad outside it, they got stomped within the division. They lost a ton of ground, losing 5 of 6 to the AFC East.

The entire point of this post is simply to make clear that Miami is not necessarily a terrible team, but they have been a terrible team against the AFC East. Their Achilles heel is this division (namely the Bills). Let’s look at passer rating data since that’s indicative of offensive success and correlates well with winning.

Dolphins Passer Rating Data (HOME):

Below are Tannehill’s passer ratings at home against the division. Numbers are shown for consecutive years from 2012 to 2015. The number before the slash shows Ryan’s passer rating while the number after the slash shows the average rating allowed by the opponent’s defense that year (in this case on the road). I’ve also included in parenthesis whether it was a win or loss for the Dolphins.

(3-1) vs Pats: 66/90 (L), 121/87 (W), 80/89 (W), 113/88 (W)
(2-2) vs Bills: 94/92 (W), 71/87 (L), 115/65 (W), 60/85 (L)
(0-4) vs Jets: 50/87 (L), 42/109 (L), 87/105 (L), 53/83 (L)

We see that Ryan’s “beaten the average” only twice against NE, twice against Buffalo and never against NY. Miami is 5-7 over this stretch, not good considering this is supposed to represent Miami’s home field advantage. The simplest conclusion is that the stout D-lines of the Jets and Bills have been able to pressure Tannehill and shut down Miami’s passing attack. I’ll accept that. It’s amazingly pathetic but the Jets have never lost while in Miami. It’s really no different for Buffalo. The only time they lost was on a short week during a Thursday game IIRC. Road teams rarely win Thursday games.

Dolphins Passer Rating Data (AWAY):

Here is the same data for games where Miami is on the road visiting the Pats, Bills and Jets. Again, the first number shows Tannehill’s rating then after the slash is the average rating allowed by the rival’s defense (in this case at home).

(0-4) @ Pats: 66/92 (L), 61/75 (L), 74/77 (L), 65/84 (L)
(0-4) @ Bills: 47/81 (L), 46/70 (L), 74/80 (L), 101/82 (L)
(3-1) @ Jets: 50/79 (W), 94/71 (W), 78/103 (W), 85/78 (L)

In these 12 games, I count 3 where Tannehill has beaten the average, once against the Bills and twice against the Jets. As you might expect, Miami’s passing attack has gotten shut down when on the road. Oddly enough, Miami’s won 3 of 4 in NY. We win in their house and they win in ours—weird.

What’s bothersome here is not just the 3-9 record. It’s easy to say “no one beats NE at home” or “the Bills and Jets have great defenses.” While those things are true, it’s clear that Miami is doing even worse than your average NFL team. For instance, if we take an average of these teams over the last 3 years we’d set the expectation for Tannehill’s passer rating at about 80. Unfortunately, Tannehill is posting an average rating of 76. This supports the notion that Miami’s passing offense has been less than impressive. Opponents are evolving to shut Miami down faster than Miami is evolving to beat them. It’s no wonder that Miami is winning at only a .333 clip against these teams.

Clearly Miami is struggling offensively here. When you’re told that in the last 3 years Miami’s defense has typically allowed an 88 rating there isn’t much hope that the defense is going to bail them out if Tannehill is producing a 76 rating. These numbers indicate you’re going to lose and majority of games and that’s been the case.

If you’re wondering whether Miami’s defense actually did turn out any spectacular performances on the road, they did not. Last year, Brady had a rating of 133 in NE, Tyrod had a rating of 147 in Buffalo and Fitzpatrick had a rating of 119 in NY.

It’s no wonder Miami was 0-3 on the road last year. They got utterly destroyed in passer rating 399 to 251. Ugh. They actually lost mathematically at home 290 to 226 as well. Double ugh. Miami is under-achieving against their division rivals while those same rivals are over-achieving against them. It’s exactly what you don’t want to see.

Moving Forward:

If I had to optimistically point to a few key games I’d give you these:

(1) Wk-2 @ NE – Brady is out and the Pats are banged up. Could Tannehill notch his first win @ NE?
(2) Wk-9 vs NY – Miami has a bye week to prepare for NY. Can they finally beat them in south Florida?
(3) Wk-15 @ NY – The Jets will be coming back from a road trip to California. Can Miami go to 4-1 @ NY?
(4) Wk-17 vs NE – Can Miami defend home-field vs NE for a 4th consecutive year?

Each of the games listed above can be won. Miami has a solid chance in each. There’s a real chance that Miami could be at or above .500 in those games. The tough question is about Buffalo however. Can Miami defend home-field in Wk-7 against the Bills? Is there any hope Miami could steal a win up in Buffalo during wk-16?

Well, let me put it this way. It’s hard paint the data as optimistic. The Dolphins are 2-6 against the Bills all-time and they’re 1-4 in the last couple seasons and that 1 win came with the advantage of catching Buffalo in a Thursday road game. FYI, Miami will be trapped in one of those games in wk-4 against the Bengals. I project it as a loss because of that.

Here’s some more bad news. Against Rex Ryan defenses Tannehill averages a passer rating of only 70. And that’s while those defenses have (on average) allowed passer ratings of 90 to opposing QBs. It would seem that Rex apparently has Tannehill’s number. Surprisingly, Tannehill is still 3-5 against Rex. Not a terrible record considering the poor numbers.

And a 3rd bit of bad news. Tyrod Taylor posted passer ratings of 137 and 147 against Miami last year. In two games Tyrod hit 78% of his passes for 458 yards, 4 TDs and no picks. He’s also rushed for another 56 yards. He did to Miami last year what Dak Prescott did this preseason.



To summarize, I'll say what I said before. Miami's not a bad team, except for when they go against the AFC East. They've been the whipping boys of this division for the last 4 years. The #1 priority for Gase and this regime should be to start winning these games. Some losses against the NFC West won't kill you. You can even swallow a loss to the Bengals knowing that it's a short week and the odds are against you because you've got some winnable games at home to offset that. But you know what? You can't keep getting blasted by your own division. Nothing means a damn if you can't start winning these games.

 

The recent porosity of the Patriots O-line is also why I question their advantage going into the future. They managed 12-wins last season but if you go back to the final weeks of the season they were a team that looked like they were struggling. The Dolphins were able to get to Brady OFTEN in that week-17 game. Brady was actually fortunate on a couple plays not to be seriously injured. With Brady out 4 games and the O-line looking pretty average, I think the Pats could finally hit the wall.

What's also important to consider is that while the strength-of-schedule was favorable for all AFC East teams last year, it's the opposite this year. The AFC East schedules are all amongst the 10-12 toughest in football according to last year's win totals. This tells me that the race for 1st in the East is going to get tighter. That means both the Bills and Jets are in prime position to take over in 2016.

Obviously, I'd love to see Miami do it but I don't think the schedule will allow more than 9-7, and that's if everything were to go about as well as it could.

 

I haven't looked at the running game although I may do that. I'll have to look at total yards as well as YPC.

As far as going against defensive coaches, I think what stands out is that more often than not the Dolphins are doing "worse" than the rest of the league going against these coordinators. What that says is that either Miami is bad, DC's generally get the upper hand over OCs given sufficient time, or maybe a combination of both.

 

Yeah, I see the narrative but the Patriots have been kicking around some of the worst teams in the league during that stretch. I don't know what their records are but I'd guess the Bills, Jets and Dolphins have losing records during the Brady era. The Pats dominance is clearly a lot to do with the lack of competition.

It's sad that over the course of about 15 years, nobody else in the division has been able to field a consistently threatening offense or defense. Ironically, it's now the Bills, Jets and Dolphins who seem to all be poised to improve while NE is soon to fall. Not only is Brady well past his prime but the O-line and the defense are more suspect than ever.

It's crazy to think about but the Pats could be looking up at this division in 4-5 years if they're not careful. They don't have a dominant front-7 anymore. They're secondary isn't great. They have no running game to fall back on. Their O-line is not a strength right now. They badly need everything Brady is providing them. When he goes, things could really go south for them. I actually feel relatively confident saying that as weird as it seems.

The fact that's the case and the fact that NE haven't necessarily been masters of drafting as of late makes me think that Belichick isn't infallible. Take Tom Brady out of the equation and ask yourself what you're scared of up there? I just don't see much. Belichick's defenses are never bad but he's had years to find talent for the squad they have now and it's by no means a dominant unit. It's good enough when you've got Tom Brady, but without him I dare say they're a pretty average team, certainly not one that would be winning it's division year after year.

Most of all it's the inconsistencies we're starting to see. A couple years ago the looked terrible coming out of the gate. I remember Kansas City smashing them and everyone looking at each other wondering how Brady could look so bad. He was inaccurate. His throws seems weak. The Pats pulled it together but that's not the only instance. Last season the Pats finished the season dreadfully. Miami smashed Brady in a game that the Pats had no business losing. It cost them home-field in the Play-offs and ultimately a shot at the Super Bowl. And in that game against Miami, Brady was hit hard and often. The Pats lost 4 of their last 6. Hardly a December we'd associated with the Patriots.

I'm telling you, that team is going to get caught and I think this is the year it happens. I'll be very surprised if the Jets and/or Bills aren't right there with them come December.

 

Stupendous work there Pauly!

I was not around in May to read that thread. Great work!

 

Hmm...I'm surprised. It makes sense though and if we think about a team winning on average 11.7 of 16 games it would jive that we'd expect a divisional win rate of about the same (70-75%) if indeed the divisional teams were around "average" and that's what we see...73%. Looks like NE in the division is the same as NE outside it.

How do the rest of the divisions compare I wonder? The AFC South was equally top-heavy under Peyton. I bet the North and West are less so.