I'm glad you aren't the one giving a pre game pep talk to the team. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk
Defense forces a couple of turners. Suh gets pressure up the middle against a oline that hasn't been great the last few years. J. Grant has a coming out party on Special teams- scores and gives us a short field a few times Tannehill doesn't make big mistakes Foster and the RBs give us time of possession Touchdowns instead of Field goals in the redzone. Don't let up, don't let Wilson play hero ball late in the game.
The things that normally cause big underdogs to win games, playing at home, short week, favorite overlooks opponent, turnovers, special teams, West coast teams playing at 1pm eastern. Typically, every team is fired up for week one and not looking past their opponent. Miami is on the road, traveling cross country. Seattle is probably best in the league on ST and in TO margin. A Miami win would be an outlier among outliers.
Holy crap! I just looked at the average score for Seattle's 1st game of the season last 4 years (3 away games + 1 home game) vs. 1st home games of the season. Check this out. For 1st game of the season the total score over 4 games was 95-77, or on average 23.75-19.25. That's not so dominating and they have a 2-2 record, but again that includes 3 away games. For 1st HOME games of the season total score over 4 games is 118-26, or on average 29.5-6.5!!! .. record is 4-0. Yeah.. we got real unlucky playing this at Seattle looks like.
FML. Just what I need more bad news.. If the game was in October, or if it was Miami, I'd say we have a realistic shot. As it stands we have a shot, but its the "any given Sunday" or Chris Berman's "that's why they play the games" type of shot.
Pray for some extenuating circumstances to befall the Seattle Seahawks where they end up forfeiting the game. Either that or score more points.
Hey.. one silver lining though. Difference between 95-77 and 118-26 is MOSTLY on the defensive side. That is, Seattle's defense is playing extraordinarily well in their first home game. That really suggests what this game comes down to is how well (relative to their norm) our offense plays, not how well our defense plays relative to its norm. Maybe this game really comes down to whether our OL can provide good pass protection more than anything else. Also.. supporting this notion: Wilson's average passer rating in 1st game of season: 94.8, while average in 1st home games of season: 97.2, meaning not much difference. It's their defense we need to worry about for this game.
Pass pro I am confident we have the advantage. I'm looking hard for another advantahe, can't find one. So the question is, how do you win a game off your pass pro? I'll wait.
They have the loudest stadium in the NFL, a big reason it's tough to win there, the C can't even here the QB at times.
Nope,sorry,everyone else is wrong and I'm right. The key to a Dolphin victory is Reshad Jones in the backfield dogging Russell Wilson. It's our only hope.
Here's why I think we win convincingly, as in by two touchdowns or better- 1) Seattle rarely loses at home, but they have also started the past two seasons slow and got beat by inferior teams. 2) There is no game-planning for a first year coach and a brand new offense/defense. And with a short-yard offense, we will be all about some deception. 3) Gase is the real deal and he knows how to use our QB effectively. Every play in the book was designed specifically for Tannehill and the strength of our receivers. 4) Speaking of Tannehill, he is vastly improved over last year for two reasons- (a) He has a solid offensive line and (b) he has a coach that believes in him. That's why he was a top 3 quarterback this pre-season against 1st teams. 5) Our rookie defense seemed to make it a habit of getting their hands on the ball in preseason. I think they will surprise and jump routes all day long in Seattle. 6) Wake has something to prove and he's looking better than ever on the field. If Suh commands his typical respect and Wake goes into Beast Mode, our linebackers are going to have a big day. And Jones? He's going to be putting punks to sleep! 7) And this one alone almost trumps 1-6 combined. Gase is not intimidated and the team believes in him. Win or lose, we will show up in the 4th quarter and close this game strong. That and a quarter will get you a piece of bubble gum, but I figured that we needed an optimist's opinion here. =)
The odds are set up to balance the betting sides. They are not based on team analysis. Miami's starters have looked both horrid and great this preseason. If the great Miami shows up then the 10 point odds are ridiculous. If the horrid Miami shows up then the odds make sense. I have no idea which team we'll see. And last year in the first game Seattle gave up 34 points to St.Louis and lost.
It's based on whatever team analysis the bettors partake in. Either way, I wouldn't dismiss Vegas odds that quickly. Here's historical data on winning percentage based on point spread: http://wizardofodds.com/games/images/sports-betting/nfl-money-line.gif Right now it's a point spread of +10 for the Dolphins. So historically that means the probability we'll win is 20%, which as I said is about 4:1 odds of winning.
cbrad, do you know if that chart is based on the opening line (Vegas analysis) or the closing line (Vegas analysis adjusted by the wisdom of crowds)?
The website I got that from doesn't say: http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ But another website that shows essentially the same information uses closing spreads: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/results/ That second link is extra cool in that it shows the percentage of times the spread was covered.
I'd be very interested to know if there was any difference between opening spreads and closing spreads in predictive value. That way you could separate, to some extent, the difference between expert insider opinion and the wisdom of crowds. Although you may want a mechanism to exclude situations where some key events, like injuries during training (a la Teddy Bridgewater) alt the predicted outcome.
Living in Reno I've spoken to oddsmakers on a few occasions and they've consistently told me that lines are based on how oddsmakers view public perception of teams. Oddsmakers saying a team is a two-point underdog at home against another team to open the season does not mean they think one team will win by two points. Rather, oddsmakers think that number is what will get the betting public to bet as close to evenly on both sides of the number. If a team is favored by 3.5 points and the money wagered is half on the favorite and half on the underdog, the house wins thanks to the vig.
I just want to know how the heck they run and pass well without a line? so basically there is nothing to exploit
Their pass pro is bad, but their oline has been good at run blocking. As opposed to our line, that was bad at both.
yeah but what drives me nuts is that Wilson and WR's still played well and passed the ball well to win games late last year
Russell Wilson has a lot to do with it. All he has to do is hold defenders for a split second and that creates room for the running backs. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
Read section 5 and see tables 2-5: http://blogs.colgate.edu/economics/files/2013/05/Xu_Econ490_Thesis.pdf Closing is better but only by a truly tiny amount.
I think lines are a little bit meaningless the first week. We just don't know, and frankly there are always upsets early on. I don't see Seattle covering unless this game was a week or two down the road
This is an oversimplification. Public perception drives only a portion of wagers. Syndicates and institutional bettors drive a significant portion of wagers, and they aren't going to fall under the logic of public perception. There is an entire dynamic of betting limits, and timing of when books will accept wagers from syndicates and institutions. Most books won't let you bet more than $10k into an opening line.
You should look at that link, specifically Table 2. It has the errors by week. Week 1 is actually the 3rd most accurate week! Least accurate is week 16 and most accurate is week 11, though again the differences are small.
Tell you what, between the Seahawks' slow-playing their injured guys and the Pats suspensions/injuries, the first two weeks couldn't have laid out much better for starting out with possible Super Bowl teams on the road. They'll be peaking in November-December, so this could be a good opportunity. I've got some hope we can start 2-0 going into our home opener.
Pretty much. There's not much to exploit, what little there is Miami doesn't really have what it takes to take advantage. The good news is that they're prone to playing bad games offensively, maybe we can get one of them on Sunday.
what I love is Arizona and their blitz style defense will let us know how to treat NE. If Jimmy Garrapolo can't handle the blitz and it disrupts their short, timed passing, then we can win. If Arizona is successful with regular pressure, I would be a little worried because that hasn't been consistent
man if we start 2-0, then you might as say 3-0. I don't want to go through this again like last year. STOP STOP STOP LOL
Arizona has the luxury of blitzing, with guys like Peterson and Matthieu, who can play man. With our CBs blitzing is a bigger risk...
