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Your prediction for Tannehill in 2016

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, Sep 6, 2016.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    There has been plenty of discussion in the offseason about if/how much RT17 will improve in 2016.

    So for bragging rights at the end of the season how about we put up projections for Tannehill's personal production in 2016. We'll see who was more realistic, the boosters or the haters.

    Guidelines.
    1) personal kind of stats only, ones that Tannehill has significant indivicual control over. Not team W/L records which will depend on the running game and D to a significant degree.
    2) Some explanation for why you project the outcome.
    3) Assume Tannehill stays healthy and won't be seriously affected by injury.

    For me I expect a final passing stat line in the region of
    330 of 500 passes for 3750-4000 yards. 30TDs to 10 ints.
    66%; 7.5-8.0 ypa; 6% TD, 2% Int. passer rating 100-102.

    I am specifically looking for a significant improvement in passer rating in 3rd and long situations.

    In the Lazor years Tannehill was consistently a 100 rated passer in the following situations (a) When Albert-Pouncey-James started and finished (b) when the phins ran more than 35% of the time (c) when the phins had a lead. To my mind this shows that RT can consistently be a 100 rated QB. the next question is why didn't he show it all the time? The short version is coaching and OL. The OL should be strongly improved over last year. The area of coaching that I think is most importnt insofar as Tannehill's production is concerned is that Lazor's playcalling got too predictable when behind.
    I don't think the D is good enough to keep the opposing teams off the field consistently.I also expect a pass/run ration closer to 60/40 than the 65/35 of the Lazor years soI expect volume to be down while the efficiency goes up.

    Tannehill has been pretty bad on 3rd and long through his career but slowly improving. With improved playcalling and natural progression I think this specific area will jump up in 2016
     
  2. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    IDC what his "numbers" look like good or bad...IDC what the team record is good or bad. If he plays the position well? We must keep him and hope he finally has arrived. He needs to make more plays and play better football in crucial situations (3rd down 4th Qt) everything else is trivial.
     
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  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    400/600
    4500 yards
    35 TDs
    10 INTs

    Those would add up to a rating just over 100.

    I expect that our OL play will be much improved, and that RT will be on the same page with his receivers, that the schemes and play calls from Gase will be much better than in previous seasons, and that the general functionality of the passing offense will go up a notch. I also expect the running game to be hit and miss, and for the defense to cause problems, forcing the team to pass the ball as much or more than the last few seasons. I think its very likely that RT finishes in the top 5 for most stats.
     
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  4. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    I say he misses the playoffs and we're shopping for a new qb in about 9 months' time.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just fitting a line to Tannehill's historical data (which might not be accurate of course) you get this prediction:

    Cmp = 418
    Att = 639
    Yds = 4584
    Tds = 32
    Int = 12
    Y/A = 7.2

    Passer rating = 95

    Possibly a bit high on some things, but passer rating seems reasonable.
     
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  6. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Why does it not surprise me that you're not prepared to put anything specific on the line?
     
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  7. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Not even sure what this means.

    Get your head out of your ***. I'm rooting for my teams QB to make strides...I just won't base it on a stat sheet for better or for worse.

    How is this offending you?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    What it means is that you're very quick to say other people are wrong, but very slow on giving specifics.

    Instead of putting up a projection where you can be held to account if you're wrong you put up a heads I win tails you lose argument.

    This is what I have come to expect from you from various threads we have been involved in during the offseason.
     
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  9. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    First you have to have a full understanding of my take on the QB to be able to toss around this BS and hope it sticks.

    I've never judged him by anything other than what I see every Sunday. You won't find me saying "Ryan sucks" "He is why we are a bad team"...I however will say that he needs to improve in some areas and start being more apart of the solution.

    Granted I'm sure you would prefer an all out assault on his surroundings acting as if he is some victim. But I don't do garbage like that.

    It's the same guys blaming his surrounding for being average that blame the invention of the cheeseburger for them being fat.

    No accountability, as sports fans or as men.

    So I'll ask again, what type of "projection" do you want from me? Do you want me to make all these blanket stat comparisons? No thanks....I'll feel much better with 3500 yards on 450 attempts than 4500 yards on 575 attempts.

    Of course I'm not sure too many understand what I'm getting at.

    This isn't fantasy football.


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  10. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    I predict he starts 16 games, even if Albert gets hurt and Tunsil is suddenly kicked outside with Dallas at LG, Steen at C.

    If most everyone stays healthy I think 4500/32 TD is expected.

    Geno Smith and a rookie, that'll help Gase keep his job !:yes: Who's the guy we should give up 2 1st rounders and 3 other picks for ? Kizer? Watson ?
     
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  11. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    My friend, I don't care whether you think Ryan is great or horrible or somewhere in between. The point of the thread is to make a projection. [i.e. a prediction. Which means to say what will happen in the future]. And to give reasons why you think it will happen. At the end of the season we can look back and see how off base we all were.
    It can be simple as saying something like "I don't think he'll improve on 2015'.
    All what the OP is asking for is some form of projection on what you think will happen. Now if that isn't something that floats your boat why even bother commenting on this thread at all?

    Judgements are post hoc. There is precisely zero judgements being made here. Noone is asking you to judge Tannehill's 2016 season before it happens. But if you are going to say "I will judge Tannehills season to be a success if ..." then you should put up some criteria other than "I will subjectively decide whether I am right or wrong".
     
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  12. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I agree. If we are successful, then we will run the ball well. That means there may be games where his stats aren't fantasy-like, however,where his growth and development will be is making the crucial throw to continue drives or late in games to keep our defense off the field. It will also hinge on some deep plays because despite the potential success of running the ball, that opens up passing lanes. I would be more worried if he put up sick numbers because it can be very mis-leading. Now-a-days, throwing for 4000 yards is not that difficult, esp with today's rules. That's 250 a game, and depending on number of possessions, that really isn't a lot. Now, a stat I would love to see him lead in is redzone pass td's. I want us to be unpredictable inside the 20 and be vertical. We play enough bad teams in pass defense like Pit, Clev , LA and SF, where passing could be potentially easier than running and his stats could be ballooned up and everyone can then look at his stats at the end of the year and say he "improved." However, winning football and better decision making and results are what matter. A couple game winning 80 yard drives would result in some good stats and some wins
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I already have said numerous times I believe he will be a better QB under Gase, I summed up MY projection earlier in the thread.

    You are the one who began directly challenging me to make some sort of ridiculous projection of his "statistics" of all things....and dismissing my previous post because you want some sort of a statistical measuring stick.

    Matt Stafford has thrown for a lot more yards than QBs who are better than him, so to me? These inflated modern day passing stats mean very little on projecting if our QB has improved.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  14. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So then why post in a 17 projection thread? If you dont care...dont clutter up the thread telling us you dont care
     
  15. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    then dont participate in the thread man....it really is that simple.
     
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  16. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    4000 - 4400 Yds

    27 - 30 Tds

    10 - 12 Ints

    300 give or take for running yards and 3 Tds.

    3 4th Qtr game winning drives!


    10-6 Record and a Wild Card birth

    He's getting better QB coaching then he has... Ever. He will match his athleticism with thinking like a QB now.
     
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  17. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I wasn't aware the projection was solely statistic based. Sorry for not providing some numbers for you.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    See other post...smh.

    What is it with you guys? If it's not what you want to hear you guys jump to conclusions and start making zero sense.




    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  19. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So obviously you didn't actually read his post in your haste to reply...


    Guidelines.
    1) personal kind of stats only, ones that Tannehill has significant indivicual control over. Not team W/L records which will depend on the running game and D to a significant degree.
    2) Some explanation for why you project the outcome.
    3) Assume Tannehill stays healthy and won't be seriously affected by injury.


    He clearly says STATS
     
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  20. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    And I clearly stated my stance w/o stats and how irrelevant they sometimes are.

    And anyone who starts a thread by calling people who disagree with them "haters" isn't off to a good start anyways.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Hes got an offensive line that can block and upgraded weapons.

    I expect 4500 yards, 35 TD's/10 INT'/7 rushing TD's. But most of all on top of that i expect playoffs. He can have those stats but if i dont see playoffs then he hasnt progressed, still a loser that has never won at any level of football.
     
  22. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    With the holes we have on defense... And the quality of teams we face this season.. Having those stats and missing playoffs.. But still being a "loser"... I guess doesn't make a ton of sense to me.
     
  23. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Ive seen elite quarterbacks go to the afc championship game with less. Might not make sense to you but history is there to educate you
     
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  24. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    In 2008 the Pat's went 11-5 and missed the playoffs. Jets went 10-6 last season and missed playoffs.
     
  25. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I predict the same ole same ole.

    He will have 3 games where he makes you believe he is all pro, the rest of the games will be average.

    If you want stats :

    I expect 4500 yards, 27 TD's/10 INT'/2 rushing TD's.
     
  26. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    Wow. What a clueless post.

    So if the defense gives up 40 points a game and he leads us to 38 points a game, and misses the playoffs, HE is the loser??

    Stop watching the sport.
     
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  27. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    Don't you see? Brady is a loser.
     
  28. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    No. You haven't. Name one. They either had an elite defense or an elite O line and WRs.

    He has had neither.

    Stop your hate.
     
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  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Would be almost unheard of for a QB to have such a stat line and his team misses the playoffs

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  30. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    This isnt a realistic scenario.

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  31. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not a big fan of this. Nor some of the comments in here already.

    However, I'd say he should be capable of 4000-4500 yards, approx. 30td's. approx. 12-15 INT's, probably a couple of fumbles lost, that number depends solely on how much Dallas Thomas plays, if at all. Of course all this depends on way too many things. Some have said we have an OL that can pass block now... uh... I'm not sure we're really in a position to make that determination yet based on them playing a few series' against 1's so far. Lets wait and see how that OL performs this week. Once the real bullets start flying, I think we'll all be in a better position to make judgments then.

    I know that being hung up on the QB's stat's is the "cool" thing to do, but really, I think we should be more focused on our defense. The back end, and LB's specifically. I think Vance Joseph is a good coach, but you can only do so much with so little. The performance on the defense will have a pretty big impact on QB/offensive stats for us IMO. If they can't get us off the field that reduces opportunities, puts us in less than ideal situations, and that will have an effect on all these numbers.
     
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  32. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    Just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't.
     
  33. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Fitzy went 3900 Yds.. 31 Tds with 15 Ints and missed playoffs last season..
     
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  34. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Sure, that doesnt make it realistic. You would have both the highest scoring and most pts allowed of all time from the same team in the same season.

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  35. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    True. But it COULD happen. Not plausible, but anything is possible.

    I exaggerated the numbers for effect.
     
  36. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Right, hence "almost". Very unlikely you have that type of stat line and miss the playoffs. 9/10 times that results in the playoffs. Doesn't mean it will never ever ever happen. His team still won 10 games, so they didnt even really under perform.

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  37. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    OK, I'll bite. Last year he passed for 4200 yards and there was no room for our offense to play because the defenses sucked. Opponents ran for 2,000 yards and we ran for 1500. Lets assume we are more balanced and run for 2000 yards as a team, I still think RT can surpass his yardage from last year, just by being in a better offense:

    I think he completes 68% with 4800 yards, that's 37 extra yards a game, very do-able. We averaged 19 points a game, and I project about 25. So that is a full TD, and lets split that rushing and passing. so an additional 8 td's from him or 32

    so 4800 yards
    68% completion
    32 TD's
    12 INT's seems right
     
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  38. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    It is when he plays on Madden :lol:
     
  39. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    this will be a really nice test of the defense. If they can perform well against this offense then the rest of the season looks more promising. I feel good about the defense going forward.

    Still hard to believe Thomas is still around.
     
  40. Big Phin

    Big Phin Active Member

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    that would certainly be the next step up. way up. :yes: Those are all-pro numbers if not pretty close. You get those numbers, he's in the mvp talk. I'm not saying he would get it with those numbers, but he'd be in the conversation if the team does well.
     
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