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Your prediction for Tannehill in 2016

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, Sep 6, 2016.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If he averages two carries a game we will miss playoffs, if he averages 3 to 5 carries a game, he will be about 5 to 7 passer rating points better.
     
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  2. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Think he plays in the pro bowl this year. 4300-4600 yds 28tds 17 ints, . I think we'll run more from the red zone this yr once the line jells I run blocking. If not and were one dimensional add 5 tds to his numbers
     
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  3. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    My point is that the consensus is that Miami is a 7-9 win team, but the expectations for Tannehills performance dont necessarily match that.

    Personally im expecting ~100 rating from him, but im also expecting 9-10 wins.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
     
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  4. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    17 INT's?

    Did someone hack your account?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    [hh=Fin-O;2834628]17 INT's?

    Did someone hack your account?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]

    With our defense we should be plYing from behind alot. He's going to have to take chances in the last minutes of halves. Probably get five ints over the course of the season from those. Our receivers tend to whiff a bit on some of his passes (Jordan Cameron comes to mind) three ints off deflections. Nine ints off misreads
     
  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I posted this in Club a few weeks ago. I thought I'd share it here for everyone.

     
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  7. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    That clearly shows that passing stats are not all that important and much easier then in the past, something I think some of us have been saying on here.

    In the 80's all of those would likely have been league MVP's, now they are just on the list.
     
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  8. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    if RT puts up those numbers, then clearly it would be the defense that would be the demise of the team. Jax 's defense total was 24, Giants 32, SD 20, Oakland 22, Detroit 18, Saints 31. Can we relate those numbers a little to garbage time? Being forced to be 1 dimensional?
     
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  9. Big Phin

    Big Phin Active Member

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    That's true. If he only throws 10 interceptions like earlier mentioned, however, that would be a great step in his growth. I would take that all day, especially if he's making the correct audibles.
     
  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Or...or....maybe those teams had really bad defenses and/or running games, and the very good QB play wasn't to blame for them having a losing season? Maybe?
     
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  11. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    yes all their defenses were 18 or worse
     
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  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Exactly.

    Thats why it puzzles me when people get "chubby's" over 4k yard seasons....take a look at the attempts and team record. There is a few reasons QB's are throwing for 4k like its nothing these days.
     
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  13. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    If Ryan Tannehill puts up the numbers people are expecting in this thread, his rating will be close to 100. There is a big difference between some of the guys you listed there and a 100 passer rating. Drew Brees and Matt Stafford are really the only comparable ones, and those constitute the exceptions to the rule.
     
  14. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    hard to say without knowing how many attempts he has, but hard to see someone making the pro bowl with 28 TDs and 17 INTs. 13 players had 29+ TDs last season, and only two had 17+ INTs.
     
  15. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I will say this, you want a stat from last year's playoff teams, rank by qb rating. Wilson, Dalton, Palmer, Brady and Cousins are top 5 and made playoffs. so can we argue and say that qb rating and defense has a direct impact on playoffs? The defenses are pretty consistent except for Washington on those same 5 teams. Seattle was 2, Cincy was 11, Arizona 5, NE 9 and Wash 28
     
  16. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Let's see if we can create an equation from last years' playoff teams, first is total defense and next is qbr rating:
    KC 7,10
    Hou 3,18
    Pitt 21,11
    Cincy 11,2
    Sea 2,1
    MN 13,22
    GB 15,15
    Washington 28,5
    NE 9,4
    AZ 5,3
    Carolina 6,8
    Denver 1,34

    this is hard to read, but it's safe to say that if you have both qbr rating and defense in the top 10 you are a playoff team and you have a damn good qb. If your qb isn't that good, your defense is sure damn good (Denver and Hou). MN and GB made the playoffs with mediocre qb rating and defense, but that looks like an exception to the rule. Miami has had that for years
     
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  17. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Ryan could in-fact have a record year, but based on last year's playoff teams, the defense has to be top 15. otherwise the numbers are just garbage time for the qb
     
  18. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    4200 yards
    62% completion
    28 TD
    12 Int

    third downs remain a struggle
     
  19. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    4000 - 4500 Yds
    27 - Tds
    16 - Ints
    5-11 Record

    Just not sold and I hear people already saying it's because of a new system.
     
  20. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    based on the stats last year, those numbers and a 5-11 record would indicate a very bad defense. That to me would blow my mind. that would be 2 1/2 seasons of a bad defense. it is even a more stress than ever, knowing what people think RT will do stat-wise, that they at least stop the run. as bad as they are on pass defense, the last 1 1/2 seasons, the short yardage has killed any chance of the offense playing. we need to have 3rd and longs and see what happens, as simple as that sounds.

    last year the following qb's had 4000-4500 yards, and at least 27 td's and 16 at most ints:
    Cousins
    Stafford
    Eli Manning
    Bortles had 18 int's if you want to add him.

    Only Washington made the playoffs and had the 28th defense. Detroit was 18, NYG was 32 and Jax 24.

    so again this proves that Miami has to have some semblance of a defense and RT's stats can be a certain range
     
  21. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think hes going to run more often then we have seen him. Its going to be where he can take advantage of a defense. That's scripted plays. He very may well run more if the pocket breaks down....but I do believe Gase will use his athleticism much more effectively.
     
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Let's hope so for his and our sake..

    Two rushes a game and 1 rollout is criminal.

    Double those numbers and his game will elevate because of the threat he poses to a defense..
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    WOW! I'm not sure you realize how good a suggestion that was.

    Here's the complete stats for 2015:
    https://i.imgsafe.org/06ee4862f1.png

    That's about the best predictor of being a playoff team I've seen. The equation that separates playoff from non-playoff is:

    PR = -2.15*DR + 39.6

    where PR = "Passer rating ranking" and DR = "Defensive ranking" by points.

    (I will note our data is somehow different.. I got the defensive rankings from http://www.nfl.com/stats/team and passer rating rankings here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/ .. still the idea was good)
     
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  24. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I don't care about his stats during the first three and half quarters of the games. All I want to see from Tannehill this year is for him to step up and make plays in the fourth quarter of close games.

    He just hasn't been a clutch QB in the fourth quarter, going all the way back to his days at Texas A&M. Until he can consistently lead the team down the field and score when the game is on the line, Tannehill will remain a mediocre NFL QB. No matter how many yards he throws for through the first three quarters of each game.
     
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  25. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    It was definitely criminal. Using the run option just a tad bit more would give other teams something to think about. The problem is assuming he's an efficient runner from the pocket over a prolonged period of time - simply because he played WR in college, which is a completely different style of running to begin with.

    So again, we're back at how does he process information back there while playing in the pros? Did previous regimes not utilize it because they suddenly forgot how to coach or did Tannehill become a liability?

    I figure we'll find out for sure this year.
     
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  26. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    thanks. I would love to see how far back this holds, say in this new passing assault ERA. But it makes sense because if the defense holds top top, it means the qb rating isn't being wasted on garbage time, it actually means that those qb's are playing well, and the defenses are probably not on the field as much, playing well
     
  27. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Tannehill actually stepped up quite a bit in the 4th in 2015.
    His passer rating in the 4th Q (NFL Average)
    2012: 83.0 (83.6)
    2013: 64.3 (78.6)
    2014: 79.9 (83.1)
    2015: 84.9 (85.8)

    He was only really bad in 2013, but for the rest of his career he has been a little under NFL average. But as most people are commenting we do expect him to be better than average.
     
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  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I kind of take exception to the "padding the stats in garbage time" argument.

    If we look at the last 3 years and passer rating sorted by win probability.
    2013
    00-19% 59.7
    20-39% 75.0
    40-59% 81.4
    60-79% 98.3
    80-99% 120.2

    2014
    00-19% 59.8
    20-39% 77.8
    40-59% 87.8
    60-79% 99.8
    80-99% 120.5

    2015
    00-19% 65.1
    20-39% 76.4
    40-59% 87.1
    60-79% 101.2
    80-99% 120.0

    Basically to get into garbage time a QB has to put up a lot of bad numbers first. If any QBs are "padding their stats" its the ones who are playing from a long way in front. When you look into the numbers a little deeper it is the interception rate that is the big swinging factor, although there are a lot of TD thrown in the 80-99% category.
    In round figures
    passing in the 0-19% win probability is about 30% of all passing in the NFL yet has 50% of the interceptions and only 17.5% of the TDs
    passing in the 80-99% win probability is about 20% of all passing in the NFL and has 10% of the interceptions and 37.5% of the TDs.

    A possible theory to explain why QBs in the 80-99% get so many TDs because the opposing teams give them interceptions and they have shorter fields to work with.
     
  29. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?89420-A-quick-and-dirty-look-at-new-HC-Adam-Gase

    In the thread I started a few weeks ago (link above) I took a look at what Gase did in Denver and Chicago.

    Based on that I'd guess Ryan throws about 550 times which should produce about 352 completions (64%). I think Ryan gets to about 7.6 YPA so that puts his yardage total at 4,180. I think his INTs come down slightly to about 10 and his TDs stay at about 28.

    In short, I think Ryan has a solid year which is bolstered by the fact that he's producing about the same totals but with about 10% fewer attempts. I also predict he scrambles more. As I mentioned in another thread, his best year saw him rank in the top ten (#8) in rushing attempts. I think he gets back to running a few times a game and that it frees him up a bit more.

    Summary​:

    352 / 550 (64%)
    4,180 Yards
    28 TDs
    10 INTs
    35 Sacks

    YPA: 7.6
    Rtg: 96.5

    TD%: 5.1
    Int%: 1.8
     
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  30. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    I agree with som of above. However I think he breaks the 30 TD Barrier this season, but I also think he will throw 14 INTs.
     
  31. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Wow. I'm sorry but this is such a clueless line of thinking for any one who follows the sport/team more than just your average casual football fan. I expect this attitude from someone like my grandmother... who really doesn't know the first thing about football but still watches the games. Winning playoff games doesn't even count in the grand scheme of things, so i suppose Marino is a loser as well.

    :lol: And cbrad (or someone else, ICR) in the previous Tannehill thread said that if Tanny plays well but the team does bad that he thinks mostly no one will hold him accountable or trash on him... Yeah...... about that.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah that was me. Post #40:
    http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...to-this-year&p=2831929&viewfull=1#post2831929

    I still stand by what I said. Note I said I doubt "many" pundits or ignorant fans would be calling for Tannehill to be replaced if he puts up great stats yet the team does poorly and that "most" can tell whether the QB is the problem.

    I think there's good evidence I'm right when it comes to pundits. Unlucky 13 pointed out in post #46 of this thread a bunch of teams with good QB's that had losing seasons. OK.. how many pundits are calling for the replacement of those QBs? Look at that QB tier ranking and you'll see the insiders polled aren't devaluing these QB's to a lower tier because of team record:
    http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/2016-nfl-qb-tier-rankings/story?id=41230629#Tier 2

    And whether they were devalued at all in terms of absolute ranking is all over the place. Some yes, some no. Also, which of those teams decided to draft a QB early? None. So I think I'm right when it comes to pundits, which was one of the claims NCPhinFan made in the other thread (post I quoted there).

    Fans? Sure you'll have more fans that express all kinds of hard-to-believe opinions, and I also totally disagree with Vertical Limit's opinion about getting rid of Tannehill if he posts great numbers but we miss the playoffs. But are we seeing a huge swell of fans of those teams Unlucky 13 mentioned suddenly call for their QB's ouster with explicit mention that it's purely because of the losing record? I'd need evidence first to believe that.

    Let's just make this testable in Tannehill's case and for this board. Find me 5 regular posters (not new ones) on the mains here that agree with Vertical Limit's opinion on this and I'll admit you guys are right. You have 1 out of those 5 already, so 4 more. That shouldn't be hard if I'm wrong.
     
  33. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    When I saw cbrad's initial comment in the other thread my thought was that he had a higher opinion of human nature than I do.
     
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  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Trust me I don't (probably not at least).

    But I thought for awhile about what was likely to be true before writing that.
     
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  35. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    If he's taking shots when they're there and being aggressive when we need it - I'm totally fine with 14 INT's. Hell, I'd be fine with 16-18 if he's tossing 30+ TD's.
     
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  36. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Devaluing has other variables associated - namely cache built over the length of a career. When Drew Brees has a bad season (obviously talking before the age sets in), nobody is sweating it ..... nor should they.
     
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  37. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    Just hope it will be a lot of TD's, less INT's, and not getting injured.
     
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  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Cbrad,

    Out of curiosity, if you redid that graph but based on standard deviations above/below the mean rather than 1-32 ranking would it have a better predictive value?
     
  39. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    top 10 qb's last year by rating had no more than 13 picks. so 14 would be ok, however, what;s interesting is 11 qb's threw for 30 or more td's and the most int's were 15. 15 was Fitzpatrick, who threw 3 in the last game of the year. of the 5th year qb's, dalton played 13 games and was 25/7 and Cam was 35/10. If RT can throw 30/13 and the defense can be top 15 - we are in the playoffs
     
  40. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Designed runs are ok., but I am more interested in seeing him feel the pressure around him and then getting out and running.
     
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