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Let's talk defense...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fin D, Sep 27, 2016.

  1. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    VT our offense is poor and that stat is FUNNY.

    And yes they are making bad decisions but that doesn't mean the offense playing poorly does not effect them and make them worse.

    Starting bad out of the gate? I agree. But you know who starts worse? The offense. The worst 1st half team in the NFL at a solid 5 point average.

    Again when you already have a bad defense having a bad offense makes a bad situation worse. This is not some big secret, yet some of you are so sensitive to anything pertaining said offense.. you get your blood pressure up and in some cases (No not you this time Res) look BAD. This are issues that are correlated and backed up.

    Im not going to say anything stupid like "we had the best defense in the NFL last year when we had healthy OL" while true I would be a moron to bring that up.

    We are talking about the defense and I supplied an example of things that factor in to WHY they are struggling. If I offended anyone by bringing this up? GOOD. Because you shouldn't be offended and if you are...thats a you problem.
     
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  2. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I don't think there is one specific position that we can blame. I mean....Jelani Jenkins has been downright atrocious and I would much rather see Hewitt in there at this point. It was during the New England game I think when I first noticed how awful Jenkins truly has been. He got burned (more like roasted over a sacrificial fire) on a red zone touchdown that was just absolutely laughable. After the player (I think it was Amendola) caught the TD...Literally like 1.5 seconds after he caught the pass, Jenkins threw his hand up as if he was trying to deflect the ball. Jenkins is just playing lazy out there and he's really been the biggest disappointment thus far in my opinion. Alonso hasn't made the plays he made in Buffalo either, and i'm not even sure his body can hold up for an entire season. So I guess just from watching things, I would have to say that the linebacker situation is probably our biggest concern.
     
  3. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Our run defense followed by our run offense are the 2 biggest reasons we appear to be headed for another subpar season.
     
  4. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I certainly think fatigue plays a factor with the defense, but they hurt themselves with missed tackles, missed assignments and ill-timed penalties just as much. That said, this team does NOT play good complementary football. But, that's almost a Dolphins tradition at this point dating back to Cam Cameron.
     
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  5. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    That is interesting, but we also have Wake, Williams, Suh, who were not drafted by us, but are supposedly studs. Also not sure where Kiko o Maxwell were drafted/
     
  6. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Here's my issue with your response. The thread was titled Let's Talk Defense. Which means it's a thread to discuss the fundamental issues keeping our defense from playing well. There are so many issues facing our defense... Offensive TOP is one....but it's far down the list. When the first contribution you make to a thread about defense, is about the offense.... It derails the thread. After reading many of these debates... I'm fairly certain the offensive side of the ball has been covered. I would ask if we can refrain from trying to bring the offense into a defense discussion as it can only create circular arguments that benefit nobody... Our forum most importantly.
     
  7. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    See this is the fundamental problem.

    I've said numerous times the defense has many issues but the offense playing the way they have been has affected that. You say it's fall down on the list but not everyone may agree with that.

    Why what does create an argument? Why would people be offended by this? Why is every aspect of this team so black-and-white and so little gray?

    I'm a Dolphins fan not a Dolphins offense or Dolphins defense fan.

    It is puzzling to me the level of sensitivity that goes on. Are we not here to offer our opinions on what this team is and why?

    When you can't run the ball you have short drives, when you have short drives your defense is forced to go back onto the field while barely getting a drink and barely being able to look at the iPads. Is this the reason they can't stop the run? Hell no. But it plays a role in it. Why is this taboo to say? For christs sake!


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  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Gase himself made that point. Why reiterate it

    http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-dolphins-0913-20160912-story.html

    They gave up 17 to Cleveland. Not good, but not horrific either.
     
  9. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    OK...let me try and explain it another way. The thread was not titled..."Lets talk Miami Dolphins". It was very specific. It was titled "Lets talk Defense." You have 2600 posts...I'm sure you know by now...which are hot button topics sure to derail a thread....and which aren't. It doesn't matter if you think they should..or shouldn't. They do. That is just how it is.

    When someone starts a thread that is very specific to a topic...be respectful to the OP, and discuss the topic. Discuss the free lancing going on by our Dline. Discuss concepts of the wide 9....our coverage schemes...why do DB's consistently give up so much cushion to opposing wide receivers....should be blitz more...should we blitz less.

    Try and limit the discussion to what the OP asked....that enriches the discussion. It allows our experts like Ronin to really get into the discussion....give us his thoughts and they wont be drowned about by three pages of why the offense is or isnt to blame for Global Warming. Use your AV as your guide. Success. Our forum will be a success if we all work together to make it successful.
     
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  10. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I honestly feel the Dolphins are taking to many risks at this point with their defense. If you look at the Browns game we consistently had gapping holes in the interior line and our Linebackers were out of place due to them cheating up or over. the Linebackers HAVE to stay in position. Our secondary needs to play better as well. Way to many underthrown passes completed for big yards last week. Our DLINE has to stop getting run over up the middle! We cant be giving up 4-5 yards a pop on runs..
     
  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We should fire our coach then. He has no common sense. See my post above. #52
     
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  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You went from a reasonable post to claiming I'm blaming the offense for global warming. The defense is affected by the offense, maybe minor but it's a factor.

    This is would be like me asking not to mention the OL when talking bout the QB.


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  13. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So what are your thoughts about the defense....other then time of possession?
     
  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, so let's kindly remind the poster(s) and we bump the thread back on track. No biggie.

    I’d also stick up for SF and Fin-O a little bit in this case because while they're not directly talking about the defense, they are bringing up something which could be having an effect—especially on the level of players Miami currently has.

    I have for a while suspected that conditioning is one of the biggest factors in separating high-level players from low-level ones. After all, it’s very often the stars that show up to make big plays late in games. We’ve all seen guys like Cam Wake demonstrate this. Outlasting your opponent is a very big part of playing good defense.

    So let’s pause the defensive discussion and address this point which really does deserve further investigation. It’s easy enough to do…





    The point of this thread was to discuss, in detail, the defensive problems and to discuss what changes might be made to correct what’s happening on that side of the ball. The idea was to understand exactly how and why the defense has underperformed. Ronin’s response was a good example of what we’re looking for.

    Yours is a peripheral argument that does has merit, but still one which invites the thread to get dragged off course so let’s be very careful and not start analyzing the offense.

    Here’s my take:

    The offense has not been very good on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down. You’re correct about that. It has had trouble sustaining drives and there will surely be some carry-over effect to the defense. However, we can’t know for sure the significance of this indirect influence so we need to explore it before we make any claims.

    Here are a few 2016 stats from Football Outsiders through the first 3 weeks:

    The average number of defensive drives is 33. Miami has had 36.
    The average starting position is the 28 yard line. Miami’s averaged the 27 (12[SUP]th[/SUP]).
    The average number of plays per drive is 6.0. Miami has allowed 6.6 (27[SUP]th[/SUP]).
    The average time per drive is 2:43. Miami averages 3:01 (25[SUP]th[/SUP]).

    Let’s look further into their actual performance:

    The average 3andOuts percentage is 21%. Miami is at 11% (31[SUP]st[/SUP]).
    The average punts percentage is 40%. Miami is at 42% (11[SUP]th[/SUP]).
    The average points allowed in the RZ per drive is 4.8. Miami has allowed 4.6 (11[SUP]th[/SUP]).
    The average TD percentage is 21%. Miami has allowed 17% (9[SUP]th[/SUP]).
    The average FG percentage is 16%. Miami has allowed 17% (17[SUP]th[/SUP]).


    Conclusions:
    So the overall picture we get is of a Miami defense that has played respectably but is staying on the field too long. In general it seems that Miami’s defense has not been over-worked. They’ve only played 1 more drive per game than the average team. To me, that does not constitute much to complain about. I don’t think it’s enough to explain ranking 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in time-per-drive and 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in plays-per-drive.

    It appears that while Miami is forcing punts and stopping opponents from finding the end zone at a pretty respectable rate, they are one of the worst in forcing 3-and-outs (31[SUP]st[/SUP]) and they are bending too much as evidence by the fact they typically start with better than average field position but yet still allow a lot of yardage, plays and FGs.

    The evidence clearly shows that the defense has been asked to play a few more drives but that it’s also an objectively lackluster unit. Based on what I see, I’m inclined to believe that whatever indirect effect the offense is having it's not much. The problems seem to be based more around the defense bending too much on a per-drive basis.


    What bothers me the most is that Miami’s defense ranks 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in 3-and-outs, which is down from 13[SUP]th[/SUP] last year. That could easily change but 3-and-outs is a pretty good indicator of defensive prowess. The coefficient of correlation between defensive ranking (pts/gm) and 3-and-outs is -0.41.

    Last year the leaders in 3-and-outs included:
    Pats, Jets, Texans, Seahawks, Broncos, Titans, Bears, Bengals, Chargers, and Eagles

    It’s not a perfect predictor of great defense. For example the Eagles and Titans were both very good last year in 3-and-outs but they ranked 27[SUP]th[/SUP] and 28[SUP]th[/SUP] overall in pts/gm. The Panthers and Cardinals ultimately ranked 6[SUP]th[/SUP] and 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/gm and yet they only ranked 21[SUP]st[/SUP] and 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in 3-and-outs. But overall, 3-and-outs is still a meaningful stat that says something. The majority of the teams at the bottom are truly awful defenses and most at the top are really good units.
     
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  15. Agua

    Agua Reality: Try It!

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    This is silly.

    They're both atrocious. The failures of each affect and contribute to the failures of the other. The only thing which appears competent is our pass rush and our pass protection.

    There can be no serious dispute that if the offense could sustain long time consuming drives, it would keep our crappy defense off the field. If the defense could turn 3 and outs, our crappy offense could have more opportunities. When neither of the above can be accomplished, you get what you've seen.

    We're just a bad team all the way around right now. They look unprepared, and I suspect Gase is a victim of outsmarting himself. They find a way to lose and the only reason they beat Cleveland is because Cleveland is a bigger loser than Miami is.
     
  16. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The problem with drafting so poorly is that you have to start looking at free agency as a means of filling out your defense. The problem there is that you're either going to end up over-paying or you're going to be starting a long list of unspectacular players.

    This offseason Miami sought to go after guys who are relatively affordable but that's why we're looking at a defense which is mostly comprised of B- to D+ talent. I'm not against some of these guys being on the team (Maxwell, Alonso, Jones, Williams) but they really should not be the anchors.


    The X's and O's answer is something we can continue discussing. In the long run the answer will include more talent. I fully expect a DE or CB in the 1st round this year and we came away with and OT. I wanted Shaq Lawson who I thought was a special, high-effort player.

    It would be nice to hear about the landscape of talent that'll be available this year and whether it's shaping up to be a CB-, DE-, or LB-heavy draft.
     
  17. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You've said your piece in no less than 3 consecutive posts. Everyone's gotten the point. Please move on so as not to drag down the thread with a personal argument. Thank you.

    Alright, everybody acknowledge this and let's not get bogged down. This is not new information so we really don't need to hear from anyone else on this narrative.
     
  18. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Damn DG. This is awesome. You're on fire lately. Nicely done. :up:

    Have to agree with the conclusions you've made here based on those numbers. Doesn't appear they're really on the field more often, just that they're not getting themselves off the field when they're on it. Personally, I hope it's still just growing pains in this new defense. Although with the reports out yesterday in the media of guys freelancing similar to last year, that I'm sure is factoring into it. If someone's not doing they're job the way the play is designed, it's going to create a weak link elsewhere. Hopefully Gase really is going to lay down the law like he's saying.

    Anyways, awesome work, great breakdown.
     
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  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Defense is statistically average at this point, which is probably better than most expected.

    Going forward, I think they need to do a better job disguising coverages. They also need to bench Jenkins.
     
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  20. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Lsu has a great mlb Beckwith iirc. Maybe draft him, kick out Alonso to wlb. Alonso is playing well. He is 7th in the NFL in tackles. For some reason alot of people don't like his play so far
     
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  21. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I also do not believe they are a very good situational unit. I'm guessing they have a weak 3rd down % as well.

    That being said, I think while not good how bad they are is quite overblown around here.


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  22. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    There is a personal argument going on? Yikes, keep me posted.


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  23. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    We could draft Jabrill Peppers. For real, this guy is going to be a superstar. Our entire draft should be on the defensive side of the ball. We need to spend wisely on a few vets who are not constantly hurt as well. This probably isn't a one year fix.

    Also, we need to stop it with these wishful thinking plans. The Dolphins franchise/fanbase were riding the Tony Lippett bandwagon, and surprise-surprise, he has played like a 5th round pick. Maxwell was just another example of "If he just played like he did two years ago, we are gonna have an elite defense." Again surprise-surprise, it failed again. As fans, we need to open outspoken and critical. When a plan is obviously terrible, critique it loudly. Going down the road of, we will have to wait and see is enabling these poor decisions to constantly be made.

    Honestly, some of the things the Phins have done this year are worse than Jeff Ireland. When we broke the bank for Mike Wallace, we spent money a wide receiver coming off a good season. Whether or not he was a good scheme fit clearly became an issue, but at least we signed someone coming off of a successful season as to an awful season. Kiko Alonso is the same issue. We wanted to grab a guy coming off of multiple injuries and will now be on his 3rd team in 3 years. We signed Arian Foster who has been hobbled with injuries, and guess what, he has been perpetually hurt.

    Tannenbaum needs to go, and Gase needs to pick the GM for this to work. I am not a Gase fan and would not have hired him, but it would be unfair to force a coach upon a GM. And that is the problem with poor franchises. They do dysfunctional things. Part of me thinks it would be best to clean house and start anew.

    A post of fixing defense turned into a blow the team up post. I think someone is in a bad mood, but possibly thinking clearly.
     
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  24. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We just want to make sure we avoid circular posting. No need to say the same thing over and over. Thanks.
     
  25. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm also okay with Kiko. I think he's the biggest LB asset the team has. His speed is vuanle. I'd like to see him outside as well.
     
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  26. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think what maybe drives that....is when they fail. They did a fair job of keeping Cleveland in check for most of the day, the offense gives them an 11 point cusion, which in theory is when the defense should perform the best as its designed....play with a lead and attack the QB. What we have seen time and time again though, and not just this year, is when we have to have a stop, they dont. Very often they get a defense into 3rd and long....and someone breaks down, the other team converts and its good night Miami.
     
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  27. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So long as hes not in coverage. Which is odd to me..sideline to sideline the guy has wheels...put him in coverage right now and we are in deep doo doo.
     
  28. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ironically, Kiko Alonso's been at his best when teams have run right at him or between the guards. His speed isn't what it was, but it's still good. It's the angles he takes when plays go to the outside that are bad. That, and he can't get unblocked. IMO, Miami need to replace Alonso and Jenkins after this season.
     
  29. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    From a guy you will never see complain much about the officials...the holding on Jordan Phillips on that 4th down play was downright criminal.

    If he doesn't hold, Wilson is sacked...if it's called its 4th and very long. Then it's 6 points allowed at Sea and a 2-1 record and a totally different narrative about this team and this defense.

    Game of inches


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  30. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I don't watch him every play but alot of times he's on his man with tight coverage. I suspect that due to his Tasmanian Devil style of play maybe he gets caught out of position sometimes. Maybe he's one of the players that gase is warning
     
  31. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Man there are times when Jordan Phillips is just a massive beast. He just completely demolishes guys at times. Other times...you dont even know he is out there. If he can get that motor turned on all the time.....jeebus
     
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  32. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I liked the Phillips pick coming out. Like most big DTs you have a hard time getting consistent effort out of them. I think that is where Suh needs to grab him by the back of the neck and get him right.


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  33. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I don't get the we like press corners, yet we don't seem to be pressing... press already!!!!
     
  34. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Im with you man. There has to be some reason why they dont do it....but damn when you see Maxwell sitting 8 yards off...it freakin kills me.
     
  35. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with you. We set ourselves up to be let down too often.

    It is interesting to ask how Tannenbaum and Grier might go about rebuilding the defense over the next couple seasons. Tannenbaum’s upside is usually sold as an increased ability to land the big free agents which Miami has done in both Ndamukong Suh and Adam Gase. It was also reported that Chris Grier was a name being tossed around by several teams as a GM candidate. He may have stayed in Miami largely because of Tannenbaum. In general, I actually trust Tannenbaum to make change happen. I think he understands that success in the NFL is shockingly up and down and that stirring things up is the only way to make things happen. A high-quality year is never more than a couple good off-seasons away and anything beyond 2 years out is completely unpredictable. The NFL is so chaotic and volatile that it’s pointless to try and predict where you’ll be in 4-5 years. Cbrad and I have both discussed how that seems to be true despite how often teams are criticized for unfairly firing HCs and GMs after just a couple seasons.

    If you look at Tannenbaum’s 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] round selections in NY, the only positions he didn’t go after were RB and Safety. So despite the talk about Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette, Tannenbaum’s history of drafting pretty much every position besides RB says those guys are unlikely to be wearing Fins jerseys next year.

    Tannenbaum took RBs like Leon Washington (R4), Shonn Green (R3), Joe McKnight (R4), John Conner (R5), Bilal Powell (R4), and Somebody Ganaway (R6) while with the Jets. We can probably add Jay Ajayi (R5) to that list since Tannenbaum was here last year when that pick occurred. Tannenbaum went to FA to find his primary starters, Thomas Jones and LaDainian Tomlinson. It looked like he was set to do that again this year with Lamar Miller and CJ Anderson before those deals fell through.

    I’d wager that Miami will hit free agency again next year looking for an answer at RB. Latavius Murray is a guy I’d keep an eye on. He’s 6’3”, 230lbs and he’s just coming into his own as a feature RB at 26 years of age. He hit everyone’s radar last season after posting 1,300 all-purpose yards and 6 TDs. While his receiving numbers don’t jump out, he did catch 41 balls last year which is about as many as Lamar Miller had been getting. I think Miami will pursue him but it's doubtful he gets out of Oakland. I wouldn't mind a Murray-Drake situation happening.


    Anyhow...I think Miami’s pretty clearly going to aim its highest picks toward the defense. Where they go we’ll have to see but there are obvious needs at 3 key positions: CB, LB and DE.

    Being a Clemson guy myself, I was hoping for Shaq Lawson last year. I definitely didn’t foresee Miami ending up with Laremy Tunsil! Grier’s been head of scouting in Miami forever so a lot of the talent brought in under Hickey probably had Grier’s approval. As I showed earlier, we’ve learned a lot about what the team likes offensively but it’s hard to get a feel on the other side because there have been so few high-level picks used there. The highest pick in 2014 was Walt Aikens (CB) who was selected towards the back end of the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] round. In 2015, we got Jordan Phillips (DT) in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] but the defense wasn’t addressed again until the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] round with a few questionable DBs. This year we got Xavien Howard (CB) in round 2 but that’s about it. It’s literally been years since Miami drafted a DE or LB worth anything.

    Maybe somebody with more insight can weave some common thread through those picks?

    I'd love to see someone analyze Vance's scheme to get some idea of the type of players he's going to target in terms of measurables and roles.
     
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  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It wouldn't be a biggie if this was an isolated or rare incident.

    There's been YEARS of this stuff going on. You have to acknowledge there's years worth of buildup here.
     
  37. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Jenkins has been playing hurt since the end of preseason, imo. He's never been that good against the run, but he's just not himself in coverage as you watch him move around. The knee has been a real issue, I think. He played much better last season.
     
  38. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, I get that. But let's also keep in mind that (1) the point the guy raised was not at all invalid and (2) all it took was someone (happened to be me) taking the initiative to investigate further and some progress was made. I provided quantitative evidence that showed the defense was shooting itself in the foot in not getting off the field.

    To me, the problem of circular arguments is that when conflicting narratives get to a point where they clash, someone needs to dig into the details and start analyzing the difficult data. If no one bothers to do the real work of furthering the investigation then the conversation ought to stop. If it doesn't then people ought to feel justified in saying something to the posters involved. We should all be policing the forum. If someone says "hey bro, I've seen you take a hostile tone in 3 separate threads and you need to adjust that" then they've done their civic duty IMO. And that goes for paying members, general members and total rookies.

    We've all found ourselves amidst one of those arguments. At some point you realize what you're doing and you back out of it. I think the reason some people continually fall into them is (1) they just don't realize how bad they're making themselves look in the eyes of 90% of the readers or (2) they don't care.

    Now look, I am 100% down with putting folks on ignore if all they do is argue. Ignore is simply designed to get the unwanted posts off your screen. It's remarkably great at what it does. Removing 2 or 3 posters that irk you can totally change how you view a board.
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    WADR, you don't really understand it.

    That was a calculated attempt to derail the thread, whether it worked or not isn't really relevant. The problem is the attitude behind the attempt. This problem is pervasive and it doesn't just end by kind of agreeing with them. That's not defusing the situation (ok it might in the short term) but rather empowering it in the long term.

    Now I agree, the approach must change, and I'm trying, but the best thing to do is just not engage. It is not ok to validate the behavior though.
     
  40. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dec 7, 2014
    I understand what you're saying and I actually forgot to mention your last point. I was going to make it, too. The best medicine is to simply turn a cold shoulder to it. But that further establishes my point that people should be using the ignore feature. Far too few posters make use of it, I guess because they feel bad or because they don't understand how troll-ish some folks really are. But nevertheless, it's a fact that we do see many decent posters get sucked into engaging bad posts.

    I've made a concerted effort not to engage. I've even begun to skip over posters I know are legit just because they're partaking in arguments. So, if you ask me, I'm already doing what you're talking about and it's been pretty darn easy to tell you the truth which is part of the reason I suggested we get back to the Mains.

    I'll also tell you this much...if you, Boik, Ronin, Rocky, Piston, Cbrad and others are going to contribute here, it's going to set a strong standard.

    If folks can't meet it, they'll go on my ignore list--and that doesn't just go for the trolls, it extends to any poster that engages with them. The standards are going to get higher, that's just how it is. I have a feeling that being ignored will bore a lot of these people, particularly if they're intent is to start arguments.
     

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