I've got to lol at meaningless games. These dudes are trying to feed their families and get out without a serious injury. I don't think anyone of them plays a meaningless game.
I don't see Gase going in a different direction this season and unless the QB we draft in the middle rounds of next season looks like the next Dak Prescott Tannehill will be the starter next season too. Just think about what Ross said during that preseason game: Tannehill has the full support of his coach now, which is something he didn't have in the past. So how does Gase even think about going in a different direction while still maintaining the appearance of having full support of Tannehill, which is something Ross seems to think is essential?
Gase is a young coach with his first shot. He is saying all the right things to show confidence in his QB especially after it was obvious Philbin did the opposite. But I seriously doubt he wants to hang his coaching fate on Ryan Tannehill. And you can't really blame him. We've been through multiple coaches and OC's and the one mainstay has been the QB. If he somehow strings together a few good performances he may have a chance to stay assuming a restructure I suppose. But I think that is a bad move going forward. He isn't a guy who can overcome our deficiencies. Best thing that could happen to him imo is go to SF or backup Alex Smith for a year or 2 then do the Andy Reid thing.
It's meaningless for the franchise, which is clearly what I'm talking about. If anything, it's worse than that.. it hurts our chances to build a perennial winner.
Agree to disagree. I have more respect for every player in the NFL than I do for the guys who finance it.
I also have more respect for the players than the owners. I was talking about neither. I'm talking about what's good for the fans long term. Maybe we win a few more games with Tannehill, but if that prevents us from drafting the QB of choice... damn man, this wait for a perennial winner and a SB is going to be even more agony than any joy derived from a few extra wins this season (that are meaningless from that point of view).
When I read the tea leaves of what Ross and Gase are saying what I see is Ross was looking to hire somebody that believed in Tannehill, and that Gase truly believes he can fix Tannehill. I don't think they are just saying these things for public perception, I think Ross loves Tannehill and Gase really believes he's the QB whisperer. So the question for me is how big is his ego? Can he let this project go or will he go down with the ship?
Very good question. The answer to that will tell us a lot about Gase. If it starts looking like he won't get rid of bad investments, then I'm off his train too.
I think if we keep getting the types of performances we have seen the last two weeks in December Gase will start distancing himself from Ryan if he hasn't already privately. I think it was pretty clear that Ryan will go before Gase in this instance. His job won't be married to RT in 2016. Barring a stretch of games unlike we have ever seen from 17, he's gotta go. Enough is enough.
Yeah OK. Let's compare a generational talent with less weapons on offense in Green Bay to Ryan Tannehill.
Yeah right.. Basically what you're saying is that once you have a QB at least as good as Tannehill, any further improvement at the QB position - the single most influential position on win% among players - will lead to no further improvement in win/loss record. Untenable really. You think Aaron Rodgers would just stand there and take sacks like Tannehill, not buy himself extra time in the pocket or not take off and run when the opportunity arises? You think everything has to be scripted with Aaron Rodgers? You think he would be as slow as Tannehill in getting the ball snapped when you have little time left? Rodgers' TD% is 6.4% over his career and Tannehill's absolute best year he had 4.6%!! Rodgers' INT% is 1.6% over his career and Tannehill's absolute best year it was 2.0%. Rodgers' career Y/A is 8.0 and Tannehill's best year is (so far this year) at 7.8. Rodgers' career rating is 104 and Tannehill's very best year it was 92.8!! But none of this would translate into a more dynamic offense, more points and as a result, more wins.. Like I said.. untenable position.
No, what I'm saying is that it takes a team to win games. Replacing one player on a crappy team isn't going to change much. Especially if you were taking Rogers, making him learn 3 different systems in 5 years and surrounding him with one of the worst O-Lines I've ever seen on an offense with no run game. Hell, Rogers sat on the bench for 3-4 seasons after college and learned from a HoF QB and still gets sacked, stripped sacked, intercepted, etc etc. Have you seen Rogers play this year? I think he's broken the 200 yard passing mark once and has a sub 60% completion % on the season. Now, I think Rogers may be the best QB I've ever seen play. However, he, as great as he is, can't do it all by himself. Hell, even on Green Bay he only has one more win than the Dolphins and they're a SB favorite in the NFC. Why would you think he could come here and magically make the Dolphins as good as GB?
For argument's sake, let's take Rodgers at his peak, say around 2011 because Rodgers today isn't that same elite QB he was back then (to be clear, he's still elite but not at the 2011 level). If the only change you made to the Dolphins teams from 2012-2015 was replacing Tannehill with Rodgers from 2011, what do you think the effect on wins would be? I'd estimate we win on average around 3 extra games, at worst 2 extra per season. I cannot imagine us not having at least two 10-win seasons in the last 4 years and it's hard to imagine having even one 8-win season with him, if nothing else was changed. Extrapolated over the current 4-game span, that suggests to me it's more likely we'd be 2-2 than 1-3. I mean, imagine the games we've played with fewer 3-and-out's, more points scored, fewer interceptions and especially for the Seattle game, less time for the defense on the field. Yeah, I think we'd be 2-2. Rodgers today isn't what he used to be, but I'd still say 2-2 is at least equally likely as 1-3. So my only point of contention was that there'd be no effect on wins. Finally, regarding having the QB learn different systems with different coaches.. a good part of that is precisely because Tannehill hasn't performed at high enough a level leading Ross and co. to think they needed to change something up. IF you put 2011 Rodgers in there each year from 2012, we'd have made the playoffs multiple times and there'd be no change in coach or system. Hypothetical yeah, but so is putting Rodgers on this team in the first place. Point is, we're more likely to be 2-2 with an elite QB than 1-3.
Since 2011 the Packers have had an 8, 10, and 11 win seasons. You think he would have made the Dolphins a perennial playoff team? Even considering what our division was doing compared to theirs? IMO, with him on our teams from 2011, we may have won a couple more games TOTAL over those seasons.
My hypothetical was taking 2011 Rodgers and putting him on our team. That team went 15-1 and Rodgers put up insane stats like a TD% of 9% and a Y/A of 9.2 and an average rating of 122.5. Yeah, with 2011 Rodgers I think we make the playoffs 2 out of those 4 years. You do realize we were often just ONE game away from making the playoffs the past 4 years. Yeah I know.. great coach can make a big difference (happy they lost today though!). I think Belichick on our team would make more of a difference than Rodgers, but that's a separate argument.
Yup, including at QB. I took their better roster into account. If I didn't, then we'd have to conclude 2011 Rodgers would give any team a 15-1 record, which is absurd. No, I think 2011 Rodgers adds 2-3 extra wins to our team on average per season.
It's not accurate to base anything on 2011 Rodgers. Feel free to use career averages for Rodgers if you want to do that, but don't cherry pick his best season to see what effect he'd have in the Dolphins. Not to mention, his stats in 2011, with a better overall team, wouldn't be at all representative of what his stats would look like on crappy Dolphins teams.
The goal was to cherry pick the extreme case. No elite QB plays at top level his entire career (if it's long). So the question is what the maximum effect of a QB would be. You want to cherry pick in that case. Yeah we know.. that's precisely what my previous post stated.
Yet, you're basing what you think the Dolphins would do, record-wise, based on his performance in Green Bay. You don't see how that's counter to what you're saying?
Ok, so the one of the best QBs ever, playing at his best level ever.....only 2-3 extra wins.... Soooooooooo, why do we even care about QB play at this point then?
Nope. Just so it's clear, there is no person on this planet that could entertain a hypothetical like how 2011 Rodgers would do if put on the Dolphins by basing it on his performance in any situation other than in 2011 Green Bay. Who knows if I'm right or not about the 2-3 extra wins, but I do think it's a reasonable expectation.
2-3 extra wins in some past seasons gets us into the playoffs. Most fans care about getting into the playoffs.
I'll say it again.... One of the all time greats playing at his best ever level, only gets 2-3 more wins. Why worry about anything that rare? That's like giving up a 6 figure job in the hopes of winning the lottery. Is there a store where you can just pick one of the all time great QBs, whenever you need one? The best thing to do is build around the solid QB you have.
So, you admitted that his performance wouldn't be the same on the Dolphins, due to the talent differential...yet maintain that he'd win more games in Miami, based on his performance in Green Bay...yet claim that the only way to hypothetically analyze this is to base it off his Green Bay performance. You still don't see how you're contradicting yourself?
I don't care how we get better.. I just think the quickest way is by drafting a QB that gets you maybe on average 1-2 extra wins per year (even 1 extra win is fine). I can't think of a better use of a single draft pick.
No resnor it's really simple. Take Rodgers' stats/performance in 2011 and assume that he'd do worse on the Dolphins' 2012-2015 teams than he did with GB. But because we think he's way above Tannehill, we have to assume with the same Dolphins teams Tannehill played with, 2011 Rodgers would do much better than Tannehill.. just not as good as he did with GB. I can't model that mathematically LOL, but intuitively I'm assuming that extra level of performance would translate to 2-3 extra wins per season on average. Absolutely NO contradiction anywhere here dude
So a HoF all time great = 2-3 wins, then what exactly gets you one win more? And who is that draft pick exactly? Are they marked as guaranteed 1, 2 or 3 win QBs in the draft or something? What evidence do you have that says Thill isn't that QB and that we've actually been a 7, 7 and 5 win team the past 3 years?
I'm no high level stat guy but I think he said a Rogers led Dolphins team would more likely be 2-2 at this point of the season..
There's no doubt that Rodgers makes a team better. And I agree that he is one of the very few QB's (P. Manning, Marino, et al) who is able to carry a team on his shoulders, but even the great ones need an o-line. However, a playoff team is a playoff team. One person doesn't make a team a playoff team. And the Dolphins, even if they were one win away, haven't been a playoff team for awhile. The coaching, in my opinion is the biggest difference. I hesitate to call BB's coaching a difference because I'm not sure how much of his success is him and how much is his cheating. (separate argument too). But coaching, IMO, is 90% of being successful. That includes continuity. This coaching carousel that the Dolphins have been doing for 15 years is, IMO, their greatest problem.
There's no guarantee with any draft pick. But if you are going to pick a 1st rounder, then I'd want to upgrade the most influential position, QB, because even 1 extra win is huge (IF we get the pick right). No statistical evidence.. but the eyeball test to ME (and I think many others) suggests he just doesn't have the football smarts.
