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Cam Wake and CSP - Contextualized Sack Production

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 23, 2016.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Jon Ledyard over at insidethepylon.com has just published a piece on a new statistical analysis - CSP - trying to differentiate between QB sacks, taking into account quality of opponent, how the sack was achieved etc. etc.

    I'll let Ledyard explain it himself with the intro to the article:

    "All production is good and all sacks are good. I’m not here to debate that. From a team or fan perspective, an 8-second hustle sack is just as valuable as DeMarcus Ware bending the edge in a ridiculous show of athleticism. But while the box score stat has consistent value on the field, it can be misleading when comparing a player’s actual skill set to his production. I’ve always longed to provide context for production, especially for defensive players, and my latest project has allowed me to do just that for NFL edge defenders.

    Contextualizing Sack Production (CSP) is a project that anyone could have created, as long as they were willing to put in the time to watch and chart every sack by an edge defender in the NFL in 2016. The idea behind the project was this: If I could divide sacks into three categories, charting the way and situation that each sack was achieved, I could provide readers with far better insight into an edge rusher’s individual prowess than a regular box score could. The CSP is the result of this effort. Here are the three categories of sacks and their working definitions.

    High Quality Sack – A 1 on 1 (or 1 on 2) victory over a blocker due to an edge defender’s individual prowess or skill as a pass rusher.

    Low Quality Sack – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill was required in order to record the sack

    Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work, a teammate’s disruption or a quarterback’s poor movement in the pocket

    NOTE: Beating tight ends or running backs can still be considered a high quality sack if a special skill was exhibited to defeat the block. Also, a high quality sack can still occur on a twist, so long as the pass rusher wins a 1 on 1 battle with a blocker.

    With these definitions, I set out to discover whose production was indicative of their talent as a pass rusher, and whose production was at least relatively misleading. By charting several other details for each sack, I was also able to create an in-depth look at how each edge rusher was obtaining their production, from their most successful pass rush move to their preferred stance or alignment pre-snap."

    There's a lot more in the article, including some quick takes on individual players. I thought I'd share the snippet on Cam Wake:

    "– Cameron Wake’s season is also quietly flying under the national radar, despite the fact that eight of his 8.5 sacks are high quality. He’s reached those numbers despite playing just 324 snaps (47%), achieving every sack out of a 4-point stance and a wide 9 alignment. Wake’s explosion out of his stance and ability to win the edge consistently is incredible considering his age (34) and the fact that he’s coming off a season-ending torn achilles tendon from last year. His average of a sack every 38 snaps and a HQ sack every 40.5 snaps are the highest marks in the NFL (min. 130 snaps)"

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    For those who like this idea you might be happy to learn that:

    "– I plan on taking the CSP back to the 2014 and 2015 seasons to chart every edge sack in those years as well. That information will be especially pertinent considering the number of elite edge defenders that have had limited or no opportunity to appear in this year’s CSP. Robert Quinn, J.J. Watt, Justin Houston, Ziggy Ansah, Aldon Smith, DeMarcus Ware and Michael Bennett have all missed much or all of the season, otherwise this list could be even more stacked."
     
    djphinfan, SICK, Finster and 2 others like this.
  2. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I remember having this discussion a couple years ago on another site, about quality of sacks and pressures, and how Wake had high quality and Jordan had low quality.

    On a side note, I wonder if some info on sacks due to QBs will come out of this, as he said that they count a poor quality sack due to the actions of the QB.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  3. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Keep your sack production to yourself pal!

    All jokes aside... while it's interesting data to look at, I don't like that fact that someone is still making their judgement on what the level of quality is on the sack. Anytime there's a judgement involved, you've got to question the accuracy and consistency IMO.

    It's interesting, and it has some value, but it has the opportunity to be biased. It wouldn't be the be all, end all for me, but it's interesting to see.

    What's really remarkable to me is the number of sacks he has, compared to the number of snaps he's played.
     
  4. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Willing to bet the more impressive things about Cam Wake involve his massive sack production.
     
    mbsinmisc likes this.
  5. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    This is a nearly identical system I use to self diagnose my prostate...
     
    resnor and Conuficus like this.
  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol...your a sack artist/expert rilla
     
    Pandarilla likes this.

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