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wow. our qb has arived

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by caliphinfan, Nov 20, 2016.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, I ask because there clearly is a massive difference, even this year between the starters and backups. But, it goes to the sack % that cbrad brings up. He wants to act like the line is just as bad this year, but it's not. Actually watching the games shows that.
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The favorite stance of Patriot's apologists on here, is that the Patriots did nothing different from anyone else, and big, bad Goodell screwed them.

    I'm sorry, I've seen no evidence that any other team was doing the videotaping to the extent the Patriots were. I've seen no other teams with an entire room dedicated to the illegal filming, building playbooks off the filming, etc. There is a reason that every single owner was pissed about Spygate. There's a reason that Goodell destroyed every bit of evidence.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This is one of the utilities of stats. For any single game, I'd trust what I see far more than any statistic (except who won the game haha), but humans really aren't good at remembering and then integrating information over time. Not only do we forget most things, but we are biased towards remembering certain things (like really bad events) that make accurate estimates of averages difficult. This is when stats tend to tell a better story.

    We all remember individual horrific plays by Dallas Thomas, and I don't think any other player we've had on the OL was as much of a turnstile, but as I showed in post #478, we're on average no better without him than with him (measured by sacks.. maybe it's different for pressures who knows) and it was really Turner that for whatever reason didn't mesh with the others well (which is why you can't just add individual ratings). Similarly, we remember horrific turnstile OL games from the past that I agree we haven't seen this year, but those memories cloud how good/bad on average the OL was - you know the stuff that happens most of the time that we tend to forget.

    Anyway, sacks per game and sack percentage are only two types of stats, but they provide evidence of where the OL has been over Tannehill's time. Sack percentage is probably better because it's an efficiency stat, and for reference the average sack percentage tends to be around 6.4% with a standard deviation of 1.8% (meaning around 2/3 of teams will lie between 6.4-1.8=4.6% and 6.4+1.8=8.2%). The 5.8% average so far this year is a bit low and if the past is any indication it will end up higher by the end of the season (average sack rate rarely goes below 6.1% by the end of the season). In any case, we'll see what happens to our sack rate by the end of the season.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Sack % doesn't tell the kind of pressure coming at Tannehill. We've been down this road before. Using sack % to make the case that the line is basically the same this year is silly. Also, you'd have to compare our sack percentage this season with our actual starters vs or sack % with the backups who are starting for injured starters.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah I know one (or two) stats tell only part of the story, but at least it's data and not just memory. If you can get the data on types of pressures I'll do the statistical analysis of it.

    And I gave you the stats this year for "actual starters" vs. backups in post #479. I also asked the crucial question there: who do you define as the "actual starters", say in 2015 or 2014? One reason I ask is because Dallas Thomas started all 16 games in 2015 and 14 out of 16 in 2014. He was almost by definition an "actual starter".
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We started down this path based on the performance of the "unicorn line" vs the line of backups forced into starting roles due to injury. So I don't care if, for instance, Thomas or Turner were starting, if they were replacing an injured starter, then they are a backup.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, this is exactly what I'm talking about. There is a drastic difference between our starters and our backups. That being said, there is a big difference between our backups without Thomas and Turner and our backups with Thomas and Turner.
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm not sure that stuff means what you are saying it means. Was Thomas the first guy off the bench, followed by Turner? In other words, was Thomas the first backup in? So when he was in by himself, there were more of the starters in? If so, would make sense that his bad play wasn't as detrimental to overall oline play, because he had better quality people around him. As opposed to then bringing Turner in, putting another crappy player in the lineup. Now his bad play really dropped the effectiveness of an already struggling Thomas, and any other backups on the line.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, I don't know the depth chart for all games. But I do know Thomas was our starter for 2015 and most of 2014. Billy Turner actually replaced Thomas in the two games in 2014 Thomas was out. That's why I asked about "actual starters" because "actual starters" includes Thomas.

    Also.. regarding 2016, keep in mind it was really only Pouncey that was injured until game 5. Albert, Tunsil and James all have something on their stat sheets for the first 3 games this season (can't remember who started and played for how long though). So it's really cherry picking to then say you need all 4 vs. just 3 of them when the unicorn line thing before was about having 3 of them (without Tunsil).
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why was Thomas the starter?
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    We had idiot coaches.
     
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  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its likely because Thomas played between Albert & Pouncey, while Turner played between Pouncey and James. Again, go back to the concept I was explaining to you.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's a possibility, but I think the simpler explanation (this is the one I'd go for if I had to guess) is that James either wasn't playing or he was playing bad.

    Specifically, James played real well in 2014 and until his injury in 2015 (occurred in game 7). Billy Turner played last two games of 2014 and all except games 2,3,4 in 2015. That means pre-injury James and Turner played together 6 games. Now, Turner played the rest of 2015 without James and first 5 games of 2016 with him, but James in the first 5 games of 2016 just wasn't good (pretty bad actually). That means Turner played with a bad RT for 14 games.

    I think that 6 games with a good RT vs. 14 games with a bad RT may be the biggest reason.
     
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    We're actually saying the same thing.
     
  15. miami365

    miami365 Member

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    Too many variables to base solely on sacks. Pressures and hits come into play as well as single or multiple pressures, upfront or side and numbers dropped in coverage. Fact of the matter our current backups are better than the likes of Fox, Thomas, Turner and Douglas which has improved both our run and passing game this year.
     
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  16. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    T-hill is way better this year. Totally psyched thus far. He has made some serious improvement in his overall play.

    Are we seeing the Gase effect?....imo, most definitely. Gase certainly knows how to get the best out of his QBs and knows how to teach, etc. He’s done it in the past and he’s doing it here. Tanne is so much more composed and relaxed in the pocket. He’s sensing pressure so incredibly better than ever before. His anticipation and ball placement is phenomenally better. His reads are quicker and sharper. His ability to sense the pressure, step out of the pocket whilst keeping his eyes downfield has been night day from the past. His confidence, his command, his leadership, etc, etc, etc……all way better this year.

    There’s an element to this of just him maturing and progressing. You see it a bit around the league with guys like Smith and Palmer; guys who, when finally getting into the right situation, blossomed later in their careers. That may even be a new trend and evolution to the game. I don’t know, but with FA and teams changing so much from year to year, it must make it more difficult for a QB, especially those who come into somewhat bad situations to start their careers, to properly mature and progress. Yes, there are always exceptions with players like Dak, etc. However, he, for example, did come into a great situation for a young QB.



    Who knows if this will last? I hope so. This game is freakin’ huge. Lets get it on, biotches!!
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2016
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  17. number21

    number21 Active Member

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    This thread might blow up.
     
  18. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    It shouldnt, aside from the people who refuse to accept anything other than pure perfection. The guy is allowed to have a bad game against the best D in football in their house after the way he has been playing. The entire team top to bottom all played like ****. Everyone.
     
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  19. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Tanehill with a very poor game, however the 1st INT was just an amazing play.. Parker got outmuscled on the play.
    The last two INT's were poor throws and even poorer reads. Can't really blame him, the rest of the team seemed to be disinterested in hustling and playing hard today.
     
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  20. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not the way he had it though. He had it, by doing many of the things he'd improved upon during the win streak. He deserves all the criticism he gets after this game IMO. Albert and Tunsil were back, only Pouncey missing.

    His accuracy was terrible at times, as was his anticipation. He took two sacks where he could have, and should have thrown away the ball while running outside the pocket. He stared down Parker the whole way on the first INT (I'm still not sure that was actually caught, but whatever) and didn't even try to look off the safety because he saw the man coverage off the snap, and stared it down, that allowed the safety to get there as Rich Gannon pointed out on TV. Now, would you like a better effort from Parker there? Is it a good defensive play? Absolutely, but still... He should be over that stuff by now. He looked jittery though.

    The second INT was an example of poor anticipation, and a very inaccurate throw that was way behind Landry, leading to the popped up INT. Again, I thought this was illustrated pretty well by CBS with the back endzone view and Gannon's commentary. If he leads and hits Landry on that one, theres a good chance he scores, and if he doesn't, we're likely inside the 10.

    The third INT, was a terrible throw, and decision. He flat out missed the CB. You just can't say anything else about that.

    There was some good though. The TD throw to Parker was a nicely placed touch pass, and a great effort by Parker to get the feet in. He had some other nice throws today as well.

    I get your point, they all have a bad game every now and then. His though, always seem to come when we need a good performance, in a big game. That's what concerns me after today, that trend hasn't changed, and until it does, there's always going to be criticism, like it or not. And, IMO... that's ok.

    The key is being civilized and respectful about it.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, I have no problem with a QB having a bad game once in awhile. What I do have a problem with is people acting like my stance (and some other people's stances) of waiting to see how the season unfolds first before anointing Tannehill as our franchise QB was somehow crazy.

    This game is a perfect example of why it's prudent to wait. In any case, defense was the biggest reason we lost, but no question this was a crappy game by Tannehill even with relatively good protection (sacks were more on Tannehill than OL.. guy needs to learn to throw the ball away sometimes!).
     
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  22. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Ya. bad game. number 1 defense. away game. everyone played bad. he played bad. no one is gunna try and say he played good.
     
  23. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Great, but it's still a cause for concern and criticism. Especially when the book on him so far is performances just like this, in big games for this team. He's got to bounce back next week.
     
  24. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Id rather see this amount of criticism on the defense personally, you know the reason the game was over at half time. We just let one of the worst passing offenses in football have pretty much a record day. AGAIN. back to back.
     
  25. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, you'll have a hard time seeing the defense criticized here when it's a thread about the QB. The defense was pure trash today. Nobody can dispute that.

    However, what does that have to do with how Tannehill played today? Nothing. Zero. I'm not saying Tannehill is the reason we lost, not at all, so don't think that. I'm also not someone who hates the guy. I'm just saying, he had a bad game. The defense has nothing to do with his play today. I'm sure there will be several threads about the defense. The two are separate issues.
     
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  26. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Well, of course. Tannehill didn't have a good game at all. But the whole team played like crap, IMO. It was a bad day all around.
     
  27. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Lol, k
     
  28. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Fair or not, QB's are judged by how they play in December when wins become harder to achieve for teams playing to make the playoffs. It is at this time of the year that the better QB's in the league historically rise to the top.

    Obviously today's loss was a total team effort, or lack of effort. The defense was absolutely terrible and that spread over to the offense as the game went on.

    There have been two prior seasons during Tannehill's tenure as the Dolphins QB in which the Dolphins had a legitimate chance of making the playoffs going into December. In both prior cases the team and Tannehill collapsed once the playoffs were on the line.

    Perhaps they will overcome the loss today and turn it around the next four weeks to make the playoffs. Yet they are going to need much better play out of every player on the roster, including Tannehill if they expect to be a playoff team this season.
     
  29. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Was that really worth posting?
     
  30. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    :


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  31. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Yep. Because I know what i'm going to be reading here all week, and i'd be surprised if the defense is mentioned once.
     
  32. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dude, it's a thread about the qb. Nobody has said he's responsible for the loss.

    Everyone knows the D stunk today. It's just, that's not the topic in this thread.

    Start a thread for that if that's what you really want to discuss.

    Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5 using Tapatalk... ignore the typos!
     
  33. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I'm good, thanks. Go ahead and reply again whilst simultaneously complaining about spam posts.
     
  34. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you're good, why do you want to keep bringing up the defense in a thread about the QB?

    Heaven forbid a conversation takes place on a message board if you don't agree with it, right? I wasn't complaining about a spam post, but seriously, if you're only going to type "lol, k" as a response or as part of a discussion, why post it at all? I'm really not sure what you're having a hard time with here. You're getting all defensive over comments I made towards the QB and his play today, and wanting to discuss how bad our defense was today in a thread that's not for that.

    Aren't you and your attitude just a pleasure to have a discussion with. Wow..
     
  35. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I knew you would be physically unable to resist.

    If I want to point out the comically huge lopsidedness of this boards main subjects of discussion, blame, criticism, etc. I 'm going to because I can, Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2016
  36. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I'm not so sure about that. Tanny was pressing today, as it became clear after we were down 14 pts that the only chance for a win would be a big offensive output. This game does continue the trend of big game meltdowns all around, which I was really hoping would change under Gase at this point of the season.

    A win next week only shows we can beat teams with a losing record (though 8-5 looks pretty good on paper). It is the final three games that mean the most. Division games, where the teams know Tanny and his tendencies very well. Can Gase have him playing at a high level and avoiding mistakes for those games? Or do we end the year like we began it?
     
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  37. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fair enough. Valid point. Second half, sure, I think he was pressing. That might have forced some bad decisions, or decisions he otherwise wouldn't have made. I believe that to be true as well. That third INT is probably a perfect example of that. The second though... yeah... I don't think that's it. It was just a bad throw, he was late seeing it, he didnt set his feet, and he missed the throw. The taking of the two sacks when he'd gotten outside the pocket and wouldn't throw it away... that's frustrating as well.

    Ultimately, it probably wouldn't have mattered because yes, the defense was so bad. However, there's still things I saw from him today, that made me go... damn... all that progress the last few weeks, and we're back here again? He did make some great throws too, and they moved the ball decently, just... didnt make enough plays, and the D couldn't get a stop.

    So, I get it... but that's the point (not to you Deus..) if you want to claim the defense has an effect on his play, at least say why. Don't just deflect from his play and use it as an excuse. I mean, we're here to talk and discuss things afterall...
     
  38. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Honestly, Ryan was pretty good in the 1st half. He was bad in the 2nd. Kind of a common theme with him this season, one good half one bad. But make no mistake, he is about the 4th reason we lost today. Defense sucked, Parker can't finish, Landry is pissing me off more and more. I ain't mad at Ryan, he will be fine.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill wasn't terrible but he wasn't okay either. That said I'm sticking with my conviction of no judgment until the end of the season. Still more games to be played.

    Of course AZ decided this week to be woke.
     
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  40. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Hard to judge him today. The D, especially the secondary, were absolutely terrible today. They put the O in a big hole. Hard to play a call a good game like that when you're in that situation.
     

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