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A 7-9 finish is Very Likely

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by iamtiv, Dec 5, 2016.

  1. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Not if he would've gotten his Derek Carr...



















    Sorry, had to.


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  2. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    What's really weird is how long it's been going on, we've had off and ons like this with every AFCE team, including Indy before they left, but with the Jets it seems to always hang around, manifesting itself in weird ways.

    Like 6 TDs in a loss, throwing for career high 521yds in a game but also a career high 5 INTs, a 5-6 Dolphins team destroying a 10-1 Jets team so bad they lost 5 straight, Joe Klecko ending Dwight Stevenson's career, winstreaks in each other building at the same time, the spike game.

    Since 1986 they have had 6 seasons where they won 4 games or less, we are 6-6 vs them in those seasons.

    A true, died in the wool story book rivalry, one of the best in the NFL.
     
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  3. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I feel pretty confident 10-6 gets us in.
    Im less confident we get to 10 wins though.
     
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  4. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

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    how would a tie breaker work with denver?

    i agree, getting to 10 wins would be a major accomplishment for this team.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    10 wins is unlikely to get us in precisely because it seems like we'll lose the tiebreaker to Denver. This scenario changes if Denver loses 3 of their last 4, which is a possibility given that they play the Titans, Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.

    Here are the tie breaking rules:
    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

    If it's just between Denver and us at 10-6, then first tie breaker is conference games. Denver must be at 7-5 in that scenario while we theoretically could beat them if we only lose to Arizona and win the rest.

    Otherwise, we'll be tied and the next tie breaker is common games. Those are: @Bengals, @Chargers, Titans, and vs. Patriots. We are 1-2 so far (only vs. Patriots left) while Denver is 1-1. To win that tie breaker we have to hope Denver loses its next two games, to the Titans and Patriots, while we beat the Patriots. Tough eh?

    Next tie breaker is strength of victory and there is no question Denver wins there, so if it's 10-6 between just Miami and Denver, we lose. And if there are 3 or more tied at 10-6, the "common games" and "strength of victory" problem still occurs vs. Denver, so 10-6 is unlikely to get us in unless Denver goes 1-3 rest of the way. At least that's what I'm seeing based on the rules.
     
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  6. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    Pittsburgh has 2 challenging games left: @ Buffalo, whose defense just got shredded by Oakland, and a home game vs Baltimore. I don't see Baltimore winning in Pitt, but if they did then, if Miami wins 10 games, Miami could possibly be over Pitt because of that head-to-head win vs Pitt:.
    Ooh. KC does have quite a gauntlet and could lose at least 3 games, though their strength of schedule might present an advantage. The AFC West has gotta have the best metric of any NFL division.
    We're gonna see some truth pretty clear Thursday night. If they beat Oakland I think they will be above us if we're both 10-6.
    Denver: Holy ****! Good luck to them even finishing 10-6.

    OK, you definitely have a point, aqua4ever04. I stand corrected. If Miami finishes 10-6 there's definitely still an outside shot that we might have a playoff spot.
     
  7. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    Oh, but then there's Baltimore, themselves: and they have got a killer schedule. They could Easily lose of those games, if not 3, so I think they're out.

    The Dolphins have the easiest schedule of any of these teams. Even if we get beat by AZ (which, I think will show us to be lacking playoff worthiness) we have a good shot at winning 10 games.

    It's just become so easy to doubt this Dolphin team based on recent history, the eye test, and the vulnerability of our roster.
    Our QB will have to be freakin' spectacular and I think that's what we've seldom seen. Not 'never', but 'seldom'.
    It's make or break time for Tannehill here.
     
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  8. mor911

    mor911 pooping

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    I think they're well coached but still as weak as they were last year. This year they benefited from a pretty easy schedule and they're taking advantage (as they should). Every year a team or two sneaks into the playoffs because they win the winnable games. If they get into the playoffs I'd expect a very quick exit like the last playoff visit.

    That being said, I do not think the Dolphins get to the playoffs this year.
     
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  9. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Damn guys I like to look at the scenario for like 2 minutes but that's it. Other than that it'll play itself out in 4 weeks trust me.
     
  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Those Wrs are very good but they are not elite. Maybe Cooper will flirt with that one day, but Crabtree is benefiting from finally having a beast of a QB. OL as a whole is a very good unit...RB is meh.

    But yea, Derek Carr is a game changing QB in a good situation. Lethal recipe.
     
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  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why is that offense elite? Cooper is good. He's not elite. Carr is pretty good and unflappable. Crabtree is good. Also not elite. Their oline is great. Murray is not elite. Neither are their TEs.

    That offense is on fire.
     
  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Because. Why else would he be better than Tannehill if it not for surroundings?


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  13. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Shows you how important oline is. Raiders have the best pass blocking unit and Dallas has tje best run blocking unit. Both teams have ten victories already. Hmmmmmm
     
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  14. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Not true at at all...10 wins and we have a 52.percent chance of making playoffs.

    9 wins and we have a 13 percent chance.
     
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  15. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Crabtree was considered a bust Cooper was a beast, kinda like our Parker is supposed to be. Could it be their QB is making them better????
     
  16. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Are you saying a good QB can raise the level of play of those around him?
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. those playoff predictors can't be trusted. First of all you'll notice different sites give different results. Second of all, and most importantly, the ability of any of these models to predict who wins each game based on current team strength is extremely poor.. even well-known methods such as ELO have been described as being only good enough "for entertainment purposes". Worse, they perform not much better than just assuming random assignment of wins and losses, and you very well know that's unrealistic.

    So no one really knows what the (correct) probabilities are.

    As far as my claim that it's unlikely we'll get in if we go 10-6, that's based only on a very small set of scenarios involving only the teams most of us think are in the race and assuming they don't do something crazy like lose out or so. The proper critique against that is that it's not taking into account many other less likely scenarios, and I admit that. Of course, the playoff predictors do try and look at every possible scenario, which is on the face of it better, but because their ability to predict any single game is bad all they're doing is compounding and propagating errors.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2016
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  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Carr has 4-5 seconds to throw routinely.....

    Lol, really??


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  19. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Pretty much common knowledge in real life.


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  20. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Yeah. He does. Best pass blocking oline in the nfl
     
  21. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Yeah. He does. Best pass blocking oline in the nfl. Now when his oline was mediocre people were worried that he dinked and dunked too much to his backs. Now that he has time he can play qb
     
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  22. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    So who's going to be to blame when the raiders lose to the chiefs tonight
     
  23. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I could be a goofball and say it's anyone but Carr?


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  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I hope. I got chiefs and over
     
  25. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Carr with a whopping 2.9 YPA in the biggest game of the year. They go from home field advantage to the 5th seed.

    I thought our best shot at the playoffs was Kansas City losing but they win every single week, despite a tough schedule. Andy Reid is a great coach.
     
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  26. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Well Carr just doesn't play well in "big" games. We can scratch him from the good qbs list. A good QB is supposed to elevate the play around him but clearly Carr cant do that either. Showed horrible pocket presence when he took a sack. Overthrew and underthrew all day long. Too many dump offs. What a bust!
     
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  27. Simon

    Simon The Other English Simon Club Member

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    Spot on, except wasn't it Marty Lyons not Klecko whose hit ended Dwight's career?
     
  28. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Yes, I believe you are right.
     
  29. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    Aren't the 3 AFC South teams in Wild-Card position, somewhat, if they don't win the division? The Titans, Colts, and Houston are all right there aren't they?
    Also, whoever loses the AFC North is right there in contention, though both division race teams might have the same record as whoever wins and the winner will be likely determined by the head-to-head matchup or strength-of-schedule.
     
  30. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    I have to question Oakland's coaching last night. KC sat in a 'dime' defense the whole game and Oakland just refused to keep running the ball. They had 5 possessions after it became 21-10, 2 of which happened inside the KC 30 and only 1 of them even led to FG. Oakland had plenty of time to run the ball and run KC out of that defense. They never did. Oakland WRs had nowhere to run free and Carr's pinkie was obviously hampering his accuracy.
     
  31. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    The Titans are better than the Dolphins. I know we were short a couple O-linemen against them but they still freakin' destroyed us. They're more balanced and have a better defense.
    We had all but 1 of our starting O-line and Parker playing vs Baltimore. No more excuses. We got exposed. No way in hell is Tennesee below us on any realistic metric assessment.
     
  32. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Thats the beauty of divisions though Travis, look at the AFCS, they had to play the AFCW and NFCN, while we played the AFCN and the NFCW, they had a tougher schedule.

    So if we take out the Pitt and Cincy games replace them with KC and Oak, change the LA and SF games to GB and Chi, and Min coming up this week, what would our record be going into this game? Fair to say 2 and 2 in the 4 changed games so that'd put us at 5-7 or at best 6-6, and that's a bit of a stretch.

    Whoever wins the AFCS deserves a playoff spot, allowing a team like ours a spot, because of 1 or 2 wins, because of a weaker schedule, is what wouldn't be fair.
     
  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If Denver gets to 10+ wins, then they honestly deserve the spot more than we do. Their schedule has to be the hardest one remaining and I really see them closing 1-3. But if we sweep the AFC East, then it doesn't matter either way. Despite what the expert analysts say, we are still in full control of that final slot (for now) unless Denver goes 4-0.
     
  34. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Odds of finishing 7-9 now 0%.
     
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  35. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    You tell em Gish.
     
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  36. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    /thread
     
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  37. mor911

    mor911 pooping

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    LOL
     
  38. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Are you sure?

    Is that an exit poll or raw data....


    ... there could be outlying precincts
     
  39. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Not likely at all, as it appears.
     
  40. iamtiv

    iamtiv Active Member

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    I'm glad to be eating **** on this one.

    We can beat the Bills. Let's go Miami!!
     
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