1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Playoff picture going into week 15

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Dec 13, 2016.

  1. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    No. 1 seed — Patriots (11-2): The game coming up against Denver is huge. What's left: at DEN, NYJ, at MIA

    No. 2 seed — Chiefs (10-3): It doesn’t look like we can overtake the Chiefs: The Chiefs beating Tennesse and Denver would give us be a nice push in the right direction. What's left: TEN, DEN, at SD

    No. 3 seed — Steelers (8-5): A loss at Cincy and/or Baltimore all but dooms them since we own the tie breaker on head to head. Then beating Baltimore is our best medicine. What's left: at CIN, BAL, CLE

    No. 4 seed — Texans (7-6): The one division that really doesn’t matter. Would like them to beat Tenn. What's left: JAX, CIN, at TEN

    No. 5 seed — Raiders (10-3): The match up with Denver is the big. What's left: at SD, IND, at DEN

    No. 6 seed — Broncos (8-5): Denver still holds this spot over Miami despite the loss at Tennessee because of the common-games tiebreaker. Their whole finishing slate is brutal. What's left: vs. NE, at KC, vs. OAK. We need them to finish 1-2 to realistically have a shot if we drop one game.

    No. 7 Dolphins (8-5): Jets looked terrible last week. It is a conference game and away, but I think Matt will do Moore than enough. What’s left: Jets, Bills, NE

    No. 8 Ravens (7-6): Crushing defeat that they may not bounce back from. The injury to Jimmy Smith could have a major effect on their defense. When he’s not in they are a different team. What’s left: Philly, at Steelers, at Bengals

    No. 9 Titans (7-6), Although Tennessee beat Denver, its best path is still beating out Houston in the South. Another loss and they are done.

    No. 10 Colts (6-7): Indianapolis is a longer shot in that division now.

    Who's still alive — Bills (6-7), Bengals (5-7-1), Chargers (5-8): Cincinnati is working to finish strong for Marvin Lewis. Injuries are preventing San Diego from doing the same for Mike McCoy. Buffalo can't do much for Rex Ryan.
     
    Fin-O, dolfan7171, gunn34 and 2 others like this.
  2. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016
    if the patriots win their next 2 do they automatically lock up the #1 seed?

    if so that could be big for us week 17
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Depends on what Oakland does. If NE loses their last game to us they still beat KC for the 1st seed with a 13-3 record because the tie breaker goes to common games and those are: vs. Jets, @Broncos, @Steelers and Texans. NE will be 4-0 while KC will be 2-2.

    But against Oakland that's not the case. The common games are: Ravens, @Broncos, vs. Texans and vs. Bills. NE will be 3-1 (lost to Bills) while Oakland is currently 3-0 playing @Broncos in week 17.

    That means Oakland could get the #1 seed if they win out and NE loses any of their last 3 games.
     
    Hoops likes this.
  4. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Yes you did the cliff notes edition. I did the full edition. Just to be That Guy. :-)
     
    Phins_Fan_87 and SICK like this.
  5. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Mine was more compressive and looked prettier. It had numbers and everything.
     
    Fin-O likes this.
  6. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Eh i hope the patriots are resting their players on week 17.. gotta take care of the jets first tho..
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    The Pats can't lock because of the Raiders and Chiefs...one loss and they slide considerably. So they can't technically lock until both teams lose twice or the Pats win the next three. The #1 seed may be decided in week 17.
     
    Hoops likes this.
  8. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    All of this is moot if we cannot run the ball. We are 4-1 the last 5 games and have squeaked by games. Yes they have found ways to win, but how long does that last? They need to have their identity, what they had with those three straight home wins. I think Miami needs a new ID, and that is slinging the rock. Many teams have that and then use the run effectively inbetween. Pats do it, Pack do it. If teams are teeing off the run and daring us to pass, we have to do that. Hell , we have the WRs to do this. If they cant run block, then pass block. Who has enough corners to cover our three WRs. For us to be a playoff team, they must have an ID. Backing into the playoffs (even with wins) is a waste. Id rather lose the games instead of masking deficiencies


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Finster likes this.
  9. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

    3,163
    2,325
    113
    Sep 13, 2011
    I'll take a W any way I can get it. If we beat the Jets 9-6 in an overtime game, that's fine by me. Of course, i'd love to go in there and smash them, but a win is a win. We need some other teams to lose because as much as i'd like to see us win out, it's going to be tough with Matt Moore. We can go 10-6, and we can be a playoff team.
     
  10. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

    1,950
    1,785
    113
    May 5, 2016
    When he does have to pass, I would like to see Moore stick with high percentage passes. And when he does have to an opportunity to throw it deep then he needs to follow the rules and not throw into double coverage, etc. Moore is aggressive, but if he stays within the parameters of our offense then I hope we will be fine. It's gonna be a dogfight Saturday, but winning this game would be HUGE!
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  11. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016
    So basically the pats are very likely to be playing for something week 17 and we may be trotting out matt moore to face them

    Ehh

    I have a hard time believing we win at buffalo with matt moore let alone vs the pats week 17 with something to play for

    Heres hoping tannehills ready week 17
     
  12. Miami_Dolfan

    Miami_Dolfan Member

    55
    13
    8
    Dec 27, 2009
    so if pats lose next 3 and we win out, we got the division?
     
  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,008
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Yes, thats still alive. So is the chance that we make the playoffs at 9-7. However, the much easier scenerio to root for would be us winning the next two while Denver loses theirs (and that means NE wins).
     
    smckenna3 and Finster like this.
  14. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,142
    2,339
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Well, we need to win any two of the next three, right? So we could drop that Bills game and win at home week 17 to get to 10-6. As long as Denver loses two more, and they have a really tough schedule.
     
  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,008
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Very likely any two of the three, yes. There are reasonable senerios though where we could clinch the #6 seed after Week 16 though, so winning that one would make it so much easier, not having to worry about New England and whether or not they rest people. We could also rest our own guys then, and not push RT to get into a game hes not ready for.
     
  16. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,142
    2,339
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Let's go down the rabbit hole on this. What if we are 10-6, Denver has lost to Pats and Chefs, and we are in. We could rest guys, or try and beat the Pats to knock them out of the #1 seed, right? Assuming the Raiders win out?

    Would 11-5 get us to the #5 seed and a match-up versus the AFCSouth winner? I don't care who wins that division, it would be the easiest potential win of the wild card weekend.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    This is a rabbit hole only a rabbit might go down haha!

    Anyway, to the 11-5 question it all depends on what the Chiefs do. If the Chiefs only beat Denver, then they are also 11-5 and get the other WC. Conference record is tied so it goes to common games and we do beat them there if we win out. Common games are: Jets, Chargers, Steelers, Titans, with us playing the Jets twice and them playing the Chargers twice. If they only beat Denver that means their common games record is 2-3 while if we win out for us it's 4-1.

    So IF the Chiefs only beat Denver the rest of the way, then we get the #5 seed. Otherwise if they win at least 2, then they'd be 12-4 with the #5 seed.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2016
  18. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

    2,435
    1,672
    113
    Apr 27, 2013
    Brazil
    I think it's pretty much a lock for the number 1 if they win the next two. Even if both the Raiders and Chiefs win their next three and the Pats lose the last one against us, they'll all be tied at 13-3...New England then seems to come out on top based on the tiebreakers.

    Here is what I got from the Playoff Machine:

    upload_2016-12-15_15-5-24.png

    AFC Tiebreakers
    • 1st Seed - New England
      AFC East Champ
      Wins tie break over Kansas City based on best win percentage in common games.
    • 2nd Seed - Kansas City
      AFC West Champ (Wins tie break over Oakland based on head-to-head win percentage.)
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    That's only if they're all tied at 13-3. Try Raiders winning out and NE winning next two but losing the last game. Let the Chiefs lose a game along the way. If my reading of the NFL tie breaking procedures is correct, Raiders should get #1 seed if it's only between them and NE.
     
    Brasfin likes this.
  20. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

    2,435
    1,672
    113
    Apr 27, 2013
    Brazil
    You're right, if KC loses just one game and Raiders win out, NE drops to number 2. If it's the Raiders that lose one, though, between the Chiefs and the Patriots, the Pats come out on top.

    I guess we'll just have to wait a couple more weeks to find out.
     
    cbrad likes this.
  21. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

    2,752
    1,373
    113
    May 31, 2013
    Plantation, Fl

    Fake it till you make it. I'd rather them stumble as far into the playoffs as possible. Move the stick forwards. Breaking .500 is a sorry measuring stick. Good teams mask deficiencies and play to the weakness of their opponent. Our D needs work and depth, but our offense was starting to flourish.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    What measuring stick would you use then? Make it to January football? Take the division? Super Bowl or bust? Sweeping the Jets and /or Bills? Ten+ wins?

    There are lots of ways to judge the season, but I've personally already witnessed enough to say that our team is starting to become a legitimate contender. Patch up the defense, start building depth, and enjoy the youthful team we've put together. The measure of success will only grow in the coming years....regardless if we make the playoffs this season or not.
     
    LI phinfan likes this.
  23. Califin

    Califin Well-Known Member

    2,050
    403
    83
    Nov 26, 2007
    I'm calling it out with this anti Jinx, in an effort to derail an otherwise impending outcome, that we are being insidiously drawn from the solitude of our pessimistic lair, only to be shanghai'd in a devastating loss the Jets, a flatulent drubbing by the Bills, and then in a demoralizing horror show, experience the final outrage of losing in contemporary Dolphin style to a pared down, backup staffed Patriot squad.

    Remember, this may be a new coach, but this is still the same team that for better or worse you hitched your wagon to, the same team that cursed season after cursed season you've watched the wheels come off, and drag your team and dream into a ditch, the one we would again be destined to reside in til August.

    Let us hope this team is cleansed.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2016
  24. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

    2,752
    1,373
    113
    May 31, 2013
    Plantation, Fl
    Thats been our measuring stick for how many years now? Gase has moved the needle forward, we can now hope to accomplish more. I hope next year we can start competing for the division and be competitive with some of the better teams. Why would anyone ever want this team to lose games?
     
  25. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    Why do you even root for this team with an attitude like that??? Were you the same guy that said that we would go 7-9? I want them to win this week so you can come in here and eat crow or at least STFU with this bull c r a p.
     
  26. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    My big worry is the weather conditions in week 16. ****ing Buffalo... when are they moving to a dome in london?
     
  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,008
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    It was so great when that one was played in Toronto. Should be every year!
     
  28. Califin

    Califin Well-Known Member

    2,050
    403
    83
    Nov 26, 2007
    My mistake, I was editing and forgot to put back in the part about what I was derailing, and it being an "anti jinx" post.

    In fact, the second line reads like I got convinced of it.

    Deceptive bugger, might have known what i was up to, editing now.
     
  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,008
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Was it really that long ago? I was thinking 2010. Oh well, Im getting old, lol.
     
  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,008
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Hes hated us since before I started following the NFL closely in 1990. Can't wait for him to retire so I can finally watch ESPN's coverage again without puking.
     
    cbrad and Aqua4Ever04 like this.
  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    He's an unapologetic Jills fan...can't expect impartiality from ESPN. They all suck.
     
  32. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

    27,269
    44,474
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    NC
    The 2007 Giants backed in, losing 2 of their last 3. We're all glad they did.
     
    jdallen1222 likes this.
  33. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    1,846
    1,771
    113
    Nov 6, 2013
    Pats and the Packers have two of the all time greats leading those teams. While i will agree we need to make plays in the passing game, slinging the rock will almost be a guaranteed recipe for disaster playing the next two division gms most likely in bad weather....adding in the fact that we have our back up QB playing, who has not had many snaps over the last 4+ years...bad move.
     
  34. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Preferring losing to doing the SAME THING 31 other teams do (mask deficiencies), I wonder what that feels like.

    You make the playoffs, by winning 2/3 of your last 3 games (DIVISION games, 2 on the road, no less), and end up with a 4-2 divisional record, you earned it...period.
     
  35. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

    4,749
    1,940
    113
    Oct 9, 2009
    New York
    Go Patriots? Yuck...I'll just pretend I'm watching the Giants against the Broncos. Same colors!
     
  36. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

    5,126
    3,241
    113
    Dec 12, 2007
    If I were in his position, I wouldn't hold back my hate for the rest of the AFC East. He's being honest about it. I don't mind it. It makes me feel better when he has to show the highlights of his team losing to Miami.
     
  37. Runnincm

    Runnincm Active Member

    162
    63
    28
    Dec 18, 2016
    Pitt losing against the bengals.
     
  38. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,008
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    The Eagles just went up 14-13 on the Ravens too, which is awesome for us. Houston is getting shut out 13-0 at home by Jacksonville, and has benched Brock Osweiler. Indy is beating up the Vikings in Minnesota.
     
    Colmax likes this.
  39. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

    12,967
    7,293
    113
    Dec 7, 2007
    Las Vegas
    It's nice we played yesterday and won, now we can enjoy this week, and root for teams to lose.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
     
    NMfinfan likes this.
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Cleveland looking to go 0-16. You know.. the last time a team went winless in a full season was the last time we made the playoffs (2008 Detroit went 0-16).

    Coincidence??

    lol
     

Share This Page