1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Awesome Dolphins Playoff generator

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by SICK, Dec 20, 2016.

  1. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

    72,658
    35,312
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Charlotte NC
  2. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Bizarre how they're somehow more likely to get the #5 seed than the #6 seed.
     
    SICK likes this.
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Nice find, thanks!
     
    SICK likes this.
  4. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

    4,323
    4,012
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    It shows that the Bills game is HUGE. But even if we lost both with a couple of scenarios were still able to make it. Not likely but many this right would have to happen.
     
    SICK likes this.
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah the good thing about this type of simulation when there are only 2 games left is that as long as you manually select the outcomes for the remaining games of the Dolphins and Broncos, the estimated probabilities of making the playoffs should be approximately correct because the true probabilities (whatever they are) are dominated by the Dolphins' and Broncos' remaining games.

    As they note, they simulate by randomly selecting a winner for all other games which will normally bias the results (because clearly some games like Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland don't have 50% probability of winning for each team!), but thankfully all those other games for the most part matter if you want to know who we face in the playoffs, not whether we make it or not.
     
    SICK likes this.
  6. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Oh man would I kinda like that fifth seed don't like the idea of going to Pittsburgh to win on the road there. If we can Just win this game against Buffalo things will work out!
     
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    So, per that site/page, 11,580 simulations were run, and the Dolphins made it in 100% of those? Craziness, but I like it!
     
    SICK likes this.
  8. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

    72,658
    35,312
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Charlotte NC
    Really boils down to beating Buffalo, really need this game.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I don't think the simulator is right. The default setting had us beating the Bills and losing to the Pats, yet it still had us with a 100% chance to make the playoffs with Denver winning both games. It also has us inked in as 87% favorites at the #5 slot..which can't be right.

    Edit- okay, I see what it's doing. If you don't predict the Chiefs, Raiders, etc. then it doesn't count them in the final tally. And since Denver plays the Chiefs, that's how we got to #5. Denver will not win that one though since they can't seem to score at all, so we're likely #6.

    If the Broncos lose one of their last two games (highly likely) and-

    - If we go 1-1 in any order (beating the Bills or the Pats), we are at least 86% likely to make the playoffs.
    - If the Chiefs go 0-2 (or 1-1 with us going 2-0), we have a 52/48 shot at #5.
    - If we win both and the Chiefs lose both, we are locked as the #5.
    - If the Chiefs win out and we go 1-1, then we're locked for #6.

    So we are not Broncos fans since there's no way they win both games!
     
    SICK and Finatik like this.
  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    If we win one of the next two, while Denver loses one of the next two, we're in. 100%

    If we win our last two games, we're in. 100%

    If KC wins both of their remaining games, they are no worse than the #5 seed, and might win their division, and even a bye. Should they win both, there is no scenerio where we get the #5 seed, because even should OAK lose both of their final two while we win ours, they have the tiebreaker advantage, and we'd be the #6.

    If KC beats DEN, then loses to SD in Week 17 while we win both games, then we earn the #5 seed. Unless OAK loses their last two games to also finish 11-5. In that case, KC wins the AFC West, and we're the #6.

    If we go 1-1, while KC Beats DEN, then beats SD, and DEN goes 2-0, then we're out.

    As was said, just root for DEN to lose. It makes things a lot easier.
     
  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I don't think that means what you think it means?

    :)
     
    SICK likes this.
  12. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Did you mean if KC ties DEN?
     
  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,931
    63,009
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    oops my bad guys. duh, my blurb about KC and DEN both winning is impossible. Sorry, was writing while wrangling kids earlier.

    But the top few are right, lol. :lol:
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  14. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,142
    2,339
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Getting selfish now, but I'd like to see a playoff WIN this year too, so the #5 seed would be a huge step toward that. For that to happen it seems we need KC to drop a game versus Denver or San Diego (and Miami winning out). Division game, who knows how things will go (we just watched a hot Giants team lose a game to the Eagles they should win 80% of the time).

    Given the early season expectations, a winning season is already a modest success, making the playoffs would be a good year, and a playoff win would be an awesome year!
     
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    That was my first thought too- hope for Denver and KC to both go 1-1 so we have a shot at #5. But if Denver wins this week, it also means we're one game from being out of the playoffs completely. So screw Denver...let's root for the safest road to the post-season.

    Then again, the biggest factor by far is us beating Buffalo. As long as we can walk into their house and steal the W, I really don't care how the rest plays out. Just get us that W for Christmas and all is well.
     
    PhinFan1968 and resnor like this.
  16. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

    72,658
    35,312
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Charlotte NC
    Could you all imagine basically a bye week before the playoffs?!?!!? Start Doughty or Yates, and Hull for Alonso etc etc....resting week 17 preparing on the afc north team would be unreal.
     
    Fin-O and PhinFan1968 like this.
  17. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

    7,503
    4,979
    113
    Mar 9, 2013
    Weston
    i think if we clinch tomorrow, a win vs pats would give us 5th seed(other things would have to play out but high % we get 5th seed with 2 more wins.)
     
    SICK likes this.
  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    Barring the Chiefs going 0-2 we have no shot at a 5 seed.

    Beat Buff and KC takes care of Den tomm night and we can likely get ready to travel to Pitt.
     
    SICK likes this.
  19. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

    7,503
    4,979
    113
    Mar 9, 2013
    Weston
    if chiefs go 1-1 and we go 2-0 we would have a 61% chance of the 5th seed.

    need to take of business tomorrow first :)
     
  20. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    Ahhh...

    I think if we win tomm we play the starters maybe a half next week. If Tom Brady's words are true, they won't be coming down to Miami passively.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

    7,503
    4,979
    113
    Mar 9, 2013
    Weston
    would love to knock brad out in a game they dont need to win :)
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    What did Marcia say?
     
  23. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    Article floating around, in short he doesn't want to finish complacent, what's to be playing their best football going in to the playoffs. Thinks it may have hurt them in the past "resting".

    Hopefully Bill disagrees.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.

Share This Page