Guys, that Leonte Carroo trade kinda looks bad today. Not sure if we guessed right or wrong. So, is there a strategy that we can use to pick up some extra picks? I assume the cleanest scenario is trading down in the first. The other one would be trading players, but I don't envision that, we either have players we really need or ones that no one will trade for. I really believe we need a full-compliment of picks. This roster needs to change over another 30-40%, and going into free-agency won't be intelligent, because you still have another 30% of the roster that needs to be turned over in year 3.
Do NOT trade down in the first this year. More important than the number of picks is the quality of picks. All we need to do in the draft is to continue the recent (3-year) trend of making sure our 1st and 2nd rounders are starters and this franchise will do well in the (drafted) personnel department, especially when you occasionally have home runs like a 5th round Ajayi. So my hope centers not around acquiring more picks, but making sure we get clear-cut starters with our 1st and 2nd rounders, and one of those better be a starting LB.
interesting about LBs. I think since we need desperate help on that unit, with Suh in his 3rd year, do we go more of the free-agent status for LBs? I think if they can upgrade that ASAP (for argument, just that), the defense can make huge strides. I saw on PFF, that Preston Brown and Donte' Hightower were two of the highest rated FA LBs and they come from within the same division.
I'm OK with anything that solves the problem, but I doubt you can fill multiple holes there all with FA's, especially given other needs. Besides, long-term it's better if we solve it (or at least part of it) through the draft. Got to draft well at many key positions to have success as a franchise long term.
totally agree, but wth only 5 picks, maybe we go into FA more if you told me we could get Martellus Bennett, two LB's and a guard or tackle (that starts), I would be thrilled because we would have addressed desperate needs in the face
Don't forget we'll probably get some compensatory picks too for Olivier Vernon and Lamar Miller. Could add some combination of a 3rd/4th and a 4th/5th to the picks we have. Will help a lot.
We're due compensatory picks. I think we'll have more than 5. Trading down in the draft isn't a horrible idea if the talent around the area you are originally picking and the area you are trading down to aren't vastly different. Then again, you never know who'll drop. What usually dictates that are teams reaching for quarterbacks, though I don't think there's been any serious 1st round reaches (jury is still kind of out on Goff) in the last 2-3 drafts. Cleveland would be absolute fools to take anyone besides Garrett or Allen with their first pick. After that you have Kizer, you have Watson, and maybe Trubisky, but I think teams are getting wise and realizing they can get these guys on maybe day 2 which bodes crappy for our first round pick but not so much for our second.
Yes, we will absolutely be getting at least a 3rd and a 5th. It might even happen that we get a 3rd, 4th and 5th. Now, those are at the bottom of those rounds, so the 3rd rounder would be in the high 90s, but still, they're useful, and we won't be going into the draft with only five picks. As far as a trade down, it would depend on who's been taken and who's left on the board. I wouldn't rule it out. Per the draft pick value chart (which is a rough guide), if we were to move down seven spots to #29, then we could expect the corresponding 3rd rounder back as payment.
Based on http://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ It would appear that our 2017 draft will be: 1:22 - Regular pick between #22 2:54 - Regular pick 3A - Traded to Vikes 3B - Comp pick 4 - Traded to Vikes 5A - Regular pick 5B - Comp pick 6 - Regular pick 7 - Regular pick That's 7 picks. Be interesting to see if we use that extra 5th to either get back into the 3rd or 4th, or if we drop out of the 1st altogether for an extra 2nd.
Remember we aren't picking in the top half, lol, I know we are all used to that mentality, but that is a "high pick" mentality, the truth is, when we pick there isn't a heck of a lot of difference between those players and 2nd rounders, dropping to the top of the 2nd and picking up a 3rd or 4th is a good plan. Quality picks aren't as important as quality pickers, quality picks are more important to teams that don't have quality pickers, and the truth is, this year we don't have a quality pick. Look at teams that are good year in and year out, they are always picking in the 2nd half of the first, often near the bottom, of every round, yet they keep drafting stars. Not every player will work out, no one has a perfect drafting record, but the better the pickers, the better your chances, and the more picks you have, the better the chances.
Two things: 1) We can't change the quality of our "pickers", so for any level of picking ability you want the most "quality" picks. So while it's obvious having quality pickers is more important, saying that doesn't help much because we're stuck with who we got. 2) I don't think you realize how rich the last 1/3 of the 1st round is in talent. We are probably picking #22 this year. During the years 2000-2012 there were on average 3.8 players per year picked from #22 to the end of the first round that made the pro-bowl!! That's a LOT of players (about 35%). So you want to stay put, not trade down unless you only go down a bit (that figure quickly goes down to about 20% in the upper half of the 2nd.. pretty big drop).
No expert here, but I would also think that picking at 22 doesn't lock us in on what position we take. For example, if were picking in the top 10, we wouldn't go center there, but at 22 we could if we wanted too and not get roasted by the so-called experts for the pick for over-drafting a player. Not saying that LBr, OG, and DE are not priorities, but I like that it will give us a lot of options because we have a lot of holes to fill.
I will be beyond pissed off if we trade out. I would rather draft in the late teens/early 20's than have a top pick. Often the guys that slide to these spots are better football players who maybe ran 0.1 seconds slower and jumped 2" shorter.
I agree right now it doesnt look great. But many WRs take a year to bust out. Look at Rod Smith...he was a year on the practice squad. But having Carroo still might be the key to getting extra picks. If we keep Kenny Stills, then maybe its time to jettison DeVante Parker for a 2nd and 4th rounder. We'll be getting a few compensatory picks this year, but we are going to be giving Landry a big payday. With whatever we have to pay Stills to keep him, thats your #1 and #2 WR budget, IMO. Carroo, Scott, and maybe even Grant are going to have the opportunity at the 3rd WR spot...If you look at the second round in this draft, there is ALOT of value there, IMO. Njoku and Engram at TE, Adoree Jackson and Tre Davious White at CB, Nazair Jones, DT from UNC (who I really like) have all been mocked in the second round. We don't need to upgrade the starters as much we need to upgrade the depth. We don't have to get a better C than Pouncey, we need to make sure we get one better than Urbik. We don't need a S better than Reshad Jones, we need one better than Baccari Rambo. We don't need a TE better than Cameron Jordan, we need one better than Dion Sims. We need to get younger at DE...If I could trade Parker for a second and a fourth, and trade out of the first for a second and third this year....i would think we have a great opportunity to upgrade this team. Three seconds, two thirds (comp pick), a couple of fourths....would give us some excellent young players. 2018 is going to be a critical year.
Great post! However, I think we wait one more year for Parker. Worst case, we can franchise Landry. If he is injured again in camp, then maybe it is time to let him go next offseason. I agree we need quality depth, incase our starters get hurt. But we do have some starters that are straight garbage, starting at LB. I posted a couple topics about what LB's are available and their importance to the 4 playoff teams
People have to start rethinking how they think the draft should be played. The first thing people should be realizing is the New England model for the draft won't work for us now. They can afford to trade down and get more picks because they already have a team competing every year for the SB. Their needs are few and trying to get blue chip players at those few needs isn't critical to their overall success. We are not in that boat. We have holes keeping us from being real contenders. We HAVE to hit on these guys. The higher we pick the more likely it is we hit. It's really that simple.
As far as compensatory picks go, I understand we will get two for sure and possibly a 3rd. The FO had to be figuring on this when they made the trade to get Caroo. As far as trading around in the draft, if the guy you want is still there and you expect he will still be there a few picks later and you have another team that covets someone you have in your reach then do it. Make the move and get more picks. Just make sure you get your guy.
If we were following the New England model we would trade Wake. I don't want to but he's proven that he came back from the injury. He has value. He might play for 2 maybe 3 more years. When they traded Wilfork everyone was shocked but he just retired only 2 years later. They are the masters at getting something right before a player starts to decline.
I'm sure it has been mentioned a couple times in this thread but aren't we getting some picks because we let Vernon and Miller walk?
It would be a good safe pick. I saw him rated as 16th best player on a site. Tunsel, Lamp, Pouncy. left side is looking really solid.
