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I am convinced we need to trade down.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by hitman8, Apr 19, 2017.

  1. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    This is a deep draft and we have many holes. We need all the picks we can get so I believe the best option would be to trade down and get more picks in the second and third rounds that's where the meat of this draft will be.

    I really don't see a whole lot of difference between the players who might be available at 22 and some of the second round guys. For example instead of getting lamp in the first I'd rather trade down and pick dion dawkins in the second plus pick up another 2nd or 3rd rounder.

    Unless another tunsil situation happens where a sure top ten guy falls I say we trade down.

    What do you think?

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    Last edited: Apr 19, 2017
  2. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I would definitely not give up the 22nd. Moving down a few spots in the 2nd and 3rd in order to pick up some 4th's/5th's would be great.
     
  3. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    The problem is if other GMs don't see value at 22, you're not getting much trading down. I'd only trade down from 22 if somebody valuable slid to that spot that I didn't want.


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  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Go and do the updated www.fanspeak.com draft sim. Use the CBS draft board. It's most likely the more realistic.

    Anyhow, you'll see that at 22 there are many elite players still available. However, once you get to our 2nd round spot there are many very good, and maybe a few elite players. At our 3rd there are still some really good players, but no more elites. In the 4th (of course we don't have one) there are still really good players. 5th there are some really good up top, but good towards were we are picking.

    Anyhow, the draft is deep. However, if we trade down from our 22nd we will miss out on a pretty close to sure elite player.
     
  5. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    There are no sure fire elite players at 22. Historically 20ish picks have been hit or miss or just solid but not elite players (looking at you jawan james). I would rather trade down and get more picks.

    Guys like taco charlton and forest lamp who would be available at 22 are not that much if at all better than for example dion Dawkins or jordan willis who would be available in the second.

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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    There are no "sure fire" elites at any pick. However, when projected out there are elite players going down into the top of the 2nd for this draft.

    I just did the 1st round of a mock draft, using the CBS board. At our pick these are the players left. IMO, there are at least 12 "Elite" players left. For what it's worth, I think Willis has elite potential also, but he's ranked in the 60's on this board. I think he'll go higher.

    upload_2017-4-19_10-44-20.png
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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  8. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Those graphs actually support my logic. You can see that elite players drop off dramatically once you get out of the top ten, and there isn't a whole lot of difference between low first rounders and second rounders.

    If you remember that was one of the things Jimmy Johnson was so great at and Belichik does it to an extent also. Jimmy's philosophy was to stack up on as many picks as possible and play the numbers game. The best players Jimmy ever drafted for us like Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, Sam Madison and Pat Surtain, were all 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks. He was terrible at picking first round talent (John Avery, Darryl Gardner), but great at stocking up on later picks and hitting on some gems.

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  9. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Great post, Hitman.

    I think we should certainly be openminded to moving down. As many posters have accurately stated, there really should be some unusually good talent at the 22 spot. I certainly would not want to give an elite talent at quite likely a need position to pick up a 5th round pick (I see a 5 as most likely a depth guy). If a team offered a 4th for us to move down a few spots with still a lot of talent on the board, that may be a bit more enticing.

    Now, let me pose a more juicy proposition for you guys. I really think that the QB class is weak this year, and there is a more than reasonable chance that by the time Miami is picking, only one QB may have been taken. Three spots after we pick, the Texans pick, and there is a strong likelihood that they will be looking to take a QB. It is entirely possible that teams that may have passed up on a QB (Browns, Jets, 49ers, Bears, Bills) or teams looking to find "the next guy" (Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Saints, Giants ~outside chance) could come calling. Swapping with a team with a high second round pick could net a hefty return, and although elite talent may not be there, good talent will still be there. Furthermore, if we acquire a 1st or 2nd round from one of those bad teams, it is entirely likely that it could be an early pick next year.

    And now for a curveball within a curveball - Usually the notion of helping out your division foes in terms a trade is frowned upon, but in all honesty, I really don't think that these QBs are franchise QBs. I almost think that we further sabotaging them by letting them dig their own graves.

    Here is the long answer to your short question: I would definitely consider moving back, but I certainly do not think that we should prioritize moving back.
     
  10. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    at 22, Miami could be in a spot where a team wants to move up, esp to get a qb. However, if we move down, I'd rather stay in late rd one or early two and get less compensation that more diluted picks later in 2nd and 3rd.
     
  11. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I see problems with most of the players left on the board there. Derek Barnett is a very good pass rusher but is a little undersized and iffy against the run. Would rather trade down for more picks and get another edge rusher like Jordan Willis or Tim Williams at the end of the first or early second. Jabrill Peppers is a jack of all trades master of none who doesn't fit our scheme since his ideal position is already occupied by reshad Jones, would rather trade down for picks and pick up Josh Jones, Budda Baker, or Marcus Williams who will be available in the second and are better at playing the high free safety position.

    Similar for all the other players on that list would rather trade down for more picks and get similar talents in the second and third.

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    Last edited: Apr 19, 2017
  12. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    I did the CBS draft board. Got OJ Howard in 1st, Lamp in 2nd and CB Myrick in 3rd.
     
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  13. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Personally, I say we trade Parker for a 2nd this year (plug in Carroo). Bundle the 2 2nd rounders to get back into the later half of round one. We have #54 with a 360 pt value and say we get a 2nd somewhere in the first 15 picks of round 2 in exchange for Parker (average of the first 15 in round 2 is 500.66). So we would have 860 points of value to trade back into the back half of round one which is the value of overall pick #21 or north. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

    Maybe take both Taco Charlton and TJ Watt and supercharge the D Line????
     
  14. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I agree with a lot of this, but you left out Jimmy's 2 1st round busts (Green and Avery). Of course the higher you pick the better your chance of hitting on someone, however, in this particular draft there is a lot of talent and elite level talent at that.

    I wouldn't trade down from our 1st, but I would with nearly every other pick we have.
     
  15. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to get higher in the 3rd. If that meant sliding down a couple in the 1st, then we would finally have a true 1-3, even more bananas if we kept that comp 3
     
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  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If we can get either Barnett or Peppers at 22nd the Dolphins will pull that trigger, IMO. A lot of people call Peppers a "master of none" player, but he would be a great safety for us for many years. Better than Reshad, IMO.

    While I do love Willis, and think he has the ability to be elite, I think Barnett is less of a risk and also elite. I like Budda too.
     
  17. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    tell me why better than Rashad? Rashad has been amazing
     
  18. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Rashad is elite. The top 1-3 safety in the league. I love him.

    However, I think Peppers can be just as good, but cover better and blitz better. I think he can be a great return man. I think he can cover the slot better. I think he can cover Gronk. I think he can play a few offensive plays to throw in a wrinkle.

    Put that guy out there and he will confuse the QB and scare the WR's. He's who I hope we pick.
     
  19. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I keep seeing this notion that because we have Reshad, we don't want a similar player at safety.

    But why?
     
  20. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Because reshad is still young and just signed an extension until 2021. If we draft another reshad jones we would have to either have him back up reshad which is a waste of talent or play him out of position at free safety.

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  21. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I went on fanspeak and ponied up the $6.95 for the premium edition which lets you work trades. I used the cbs board and set it to the difficult level. Managed to work a trade with Carolina for both their second rounders in exchange for our first rounder, one of our fifth rounders and a future fourth round pick. That gave us three picks in the second round and I picked up three great starters in areas of need for us. I think this would be a good scenario for us and a great draft. [​IMG]

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  22. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You got some really great players, but you missed out on a lot moving out of the 1st. I actually just finished a draft also, I paid for the subscription awhile back, but here it is. I traded down 7 slots in the 1st, moved up in the 2nd, picked up a 4th, and moved up in the 5th with one of our picks.


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  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    What traits of Reshad do not translate well to "free safety"? Don't we actually have more of a right and left safety?
     
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  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think we might have a chance at one of these three.

    Zach Cunningham...Ruben Foster...Hassan Reddick...

    If one of those three are there I don't trade down..if their gone, I'm with ya, trade down and get a TJ watt in the late first, then maybe pick up A feeny at guard and Tabor at corner with your accrued assests.
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Check this out deej:

    upload_2017-4-19_14-37-25.png
     
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  26. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would argue that our safeties are interchangeable. People equate Jones' instinct and success against the run as him being an in-the-box safety, but really he can do it all. He's got a lot of range.
     
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  27. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Ruben Foster is way overrated in my opinion he is slow to read and react and is bad at disengaging blocks and working through traffic. Also seems to have attitude problems as shown at the combine. Hassan Reddick is a monster athlete but he has never played linebacker before and we would have to be patient while he learns the position.

    Zack is the best of the three in my opinion but he also has some issues in that he lacks some change of direction quickness and lacks top speed for a linebacker.

    I would still rather trade down till the end of the first or early second in exchange for an extra second and third rounder.

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  28. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Reshad Jones could play free safety if he had to, but he is better at strong safety. He would be out of position at free safety and would not be as elite in that position as he is at strong imo.

    Also our safeties are not completely interchangeable. We do play coverages where they are, but we also play alot of high/low safety coverages with a free safety high and reshad in the box. You will hardly ever see rashad playing center field which is why we need a true free safety with great range who can do that.


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  29. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    Yeah as really it is about boasting the secondary. And may need to put Rashad in center field. Or draft someone that could.
     
  30. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Honestly I don't care much for the T. J. Watt pick, he is too much of a tweener and is not really great at any one thing.

    Also why are you drafting a fullback? We don't use them in our offense.

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  31. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed. If one of those three are there, and make it 4 with Peppers, we have to stay put and pick. Too good of a player to pass up.

    My concern with that, is the Lions picking ahead of us with their obvious needs at LB and pass rush help too. I could see them start to panic and jump ahead of Detroit to pick one.
     
  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When you have that many elites you are misusing the word elite :D
     
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  33. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can't be to picky at 22.

    I agree that Zach has the best upside..

    Don't agree that foster is not worth the 22nd pick..the dude is all football and I've heard that his incident at the combine is not looked at as a negative, this dude is a tough mother grabber..he no Likey people in the other uniform, or people in general, I hear he just wants to play football and destroy you.I like that, let Suh and Wake deal with him..

    Hassan is a projection of course but he also has upside projection to effect the game on multiple levels, foster and Cunningham don't know how to rush the passer, Reddick does..

    Zach does lack that top gear to get to the edge, and it does show up sometimes, but with his outstanding skillset and instincts I can deal.
     
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  34. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think Watt will turn out to be a fantastic player.

    That "fullback" has great hands and is great for short yard situations. He'd also tear up special teams. Bring him in to "block" and then let him out into the flat and he'd get you yards.
     
  35. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And you don't understand the word projection or what quotes infer.
     
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  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Better at strong than free? Ok, by how much? Let's say Jones is a 100 at Strong, what is he at free safety? 50? 90?

    I also think it's pretty interesting to think having 2 Reshad Jones on the field is somehow a detriment.
     
  37. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I do understand projection. And if you project 40 players to be elite you either project terribly, or are misusing the term elite. I don't know anything about your projections nor want to judge it, so it's your use of the term elites.

    Elite, is the best. If you start getting more than 2-4 then you're not in elite anymore. Who is the best prospect in the draft? Myles Garret most people would say? Well anyone you call elite, needs to be projected to be as good or very nearly as good. So at 22 you're saying there are still 12 players that you project to be as good as Garrett?

    Elite. You take the best player, then the group with hardly any separation behind him. That's it. Anything else and you're misusing the term.
     
  38. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I would say Reshad is an A+ player at strong safety, while at free safety I think he would be a B+, maybe A-.

    It's similar to outfielders in baseball, there are right and left fielders who could play center field, but are better as right or left fielders because of their strong arms or speed and range limitations.

    Point is Jabrill Peppers is not a natural free safety and that is where we need him. We would be playing him out of position. The top natural free safeties in this draft are malik hooker, budda baker, and marcus williams in that order. Then you have obi Melifonwu and Josh Jones who can play both strong and free and have experience doing both, wheras Jabrill Peppers is more of a strong safety nickel linebacker tweener.

    I would not spend our 22nd pick on Jabrill, that's just my opinion.

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    Last edited: Apr 19, 2017
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I'm not trying to say any player is the next Reshad Jones. I don't have the skill nor knowledge necessary to make that kind of prediction. I'm only taking exception to the notion that a team wouldn't want 2 Reshad Jones on the field at once because that's crazy talk IMO. If a DC had 2 Reshad Jones at safety, he would put them on the field at both safety spots and then sacrifice whatever the football gods demand from him for bestowing such a gift on his humble and unworthy existence.
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2017
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I categorize elite as a level of hi performance, more than one can reach that level.
     
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