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The effect Gase has had on Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Pauly, Apr 18, 2017.

  1. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I don't make excuses, period. If I give credit to the Patriots, it's usually because somebody else is trashing them and I think they're full of it and acting envious. I'm just upfront about it and say I wish we had their success.

    I just hear the words great thrown around too often. Tannehill is great at this, he's great at that. And I hear a lot of big talk. Matt Ryan is a choker, Tannehill will surpass Wilson. Enough with the mental masturbation already.


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  2. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Once again , nobody throws around the word great. But I will wait for the day when you defend a single Dolphin player like you do with other teams players... because it will be the first time. Your eagerness to go this route continuously is why you get such push back with every post. You seem to enjoy it.


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  3. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I was just arguing with danmarino yesterday about a post where he made claims Tannehill is great at a few things, yet he never gives credit to Brady. That's the kind of blind fan mentality I don't sympathize with.

    Go through my posts and you'll read my praise for Ajayi, Jones, Wake, Pouncey when healthy. I'm sure I'm missing a few guys I like.

    You were quick to like that post about me derailing the thread when I proved it was danmarino getting into a semantics argument with me after I REPLIED to a post from cbrad. So I didn't make my own post to go off topic or bait anybody. I know why I face backlash. It's because you're more sympathetic towards homers than guys like myself, Finster, jdang, and a few others I'm forgetting at the moment.


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  4. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Check your memory :confused1:, I'm not a Romo fan or detractor, you are mistaking me for someone else.
     
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  5. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You came back to the forum after a while and started right out of the gate. Brandon is one of the really honest posters on here with no agenda. I cant help if he called a spade a spade...he is always spot on. The three guys you mention are smart guys who have blind spots and enjoy negatively stirring the pot. Not my cup of tea. Excuse me to being more sympathetic to more optimistic posts. I don't mind people being critical of this team....but when its constant and unwarranted and not backed up by much sense? Then its just becomes constant irritating noise that turns off many fans that come to this site to enjoy, you know, being a fan of the Miami Dolphins. Back to the topic, we agree to disagree. I hope this year this team gives us fans very little to complain about.
     
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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Liar
     
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  7. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Look for yourself. I responded to cbrad, then danmarino went on and on and on over semantics. You and him can feel you're calling a spade a spade but it's simply not the truth.

    You feel it's not warranted. If you feel that way, debate my points. Don't attack my character and follow the mob mentality.


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  8. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, you're right. You give him credit for being great under Belichick and cheating.


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  9. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the issue here is maybe how you're interpreting the use of "great", and I think you're right, it's probably not the best choice of word to explain some of Tannehill's traits if you make the assumption that someone saying something is "great" about someone means they're at the top of the list. I'm not sure these guys saying Tannehill is great at things are implying he's the best at that particular thing, it's just a word used to mentioned something they think he does well. Doesn't necessarily mean best of the best. Maybe I'm wrong, some people probably do feel that way and you may be right. :lol:

    As for the last part... I agree with you essentially. However, I'm also not a huge fan of comparing one QB to another. There's too many circumstantial factors involved. From coaching, to surrounding talent, opponents faced, divisions, etc. etc. It's just, there's no easy way to do that. If people can't see that Matt Ryan, and Russel Wilson are good players, then I'm not really sure what to tell them. I don't see the need to compare them to Tannehill either though. Of course, that's just in our nature though as fans.

    Ultimately, what we should be concerned with is seeing progress in his game, progress with the results of the team, wins, playoffs, playoff wins, and championships. Ultimately, that's what guys get judged on, and hundreds of other things have to get factored into that discussion, not just the QB. Which is why I'm not a huge, huge fan of comparing them. As I said, too many differences to do so.

    However, in this regard, the context of your post here, I'd tend to agree with you.
     
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  10. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    The only reason I compare them to Tannehill is because the same posters that tend to crap on clearly better QBs make excuses for him. That's not a reasonable position to take. I should be able to make a reasonable assessment without having a mob of people calling me a hater, belittling my intelligence, nitpicking my diction, questioning my fandom, etc.

    I've said Tannehill will usually rank 14th-17th in his career, peaking at the lower end of the top 10. I've also said Brady is the GOAT. I have two jerseys of Wake. I had two season tickets for two years when I had the money. I had a helmet signed by the team. I love Ajayi and thought Gase didn't know what he had until it was clear. I think Reshad Jones is one of the most underrated players in the league.

    Back to my original post, I don't think we're on New England's heels. I think we're three very good drafts away from truly contending with them for the division. We can disagree, but I don't think a healthy Dolphins team stands a chance against the Steelers in the playoffs in their current configurations. If we change our focus to a run oriented, run out the clock, rest our defense team, we can be perennial division champs in five years.


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  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think you've definitely hit on something here. I doubt anybody think RT is the best at anything he does great.

    However, the biggest problem is that some people just criticize for the sake of it. If you can back up a criticism with well thought out and legitimate opinions I doubt you'd find anyone here arguing with you. However, what we see here is mostly whining and complaining about made up scenarios or cherry picked stats.
     
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  12. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    You know sometime you start a thread because you want to have a serious discussion and other posters just want to use it as yet another platform to insult one another.

    Please people there are plentyof other threads you can slag off at each other in, but please leave this one alone.
     
  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Another one of these eh?

    Honestly, I don't understand why they don't get merged into one universal thread.
     
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  14. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    When you say Ryan had a good game, do you follow it up with "yea but X had a good game too"?

    Nope.

    This is why we have so few truly neutral people around here. It pains them so much when they have to admit something that a "yea but" is always included.

    He was bad that game. It is what it is just as long as they are fewer and farther between.


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  15. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The post I quoted was blaming Ryan for the loss in an important game. I admitted he played poorly but the main reason for the loss was CLEARLY the defense. No yea but.. just the truth. Maybe take a lesson Fin O and try to be neutral like you said , and don't let it pain you so much that it wasn't Ryan's fault .


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  16. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I never said it was Ryan's fault.

    Some of u guy's habitually just pull things out of thin air.


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  17. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And how do you know what I post after Ryan has a good game Fin O? Seems like you like to generalize and habitually pull things out of thin air. How about stick to the topic and stop with the you and you guys routine. I thought "we" were Dolphin fans.


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  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    -generalizes me as someone who blames Ryan for losses despite me never doing that. Then accuses me of generalizing by calling him out on it.

    Classic


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  19. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Generalizes me as someone who only gives Ryan credit for wins despite me never doing that. Then accuses me of generalizing by calling him out on it. Classic... Post #54, People living in glass skyscrapers should not throw boulders. Lets both move on.
     
  20. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fair enough. I get where you're coming from. I don't exactly agree about the 3 drafts away part, but I can kind of understand why you might think that.

    I know our additions this offseason aren't grabbing bigtime attention, but I think this staff showed last year they can get an awful lot, out of a little. They've upgraded this year at positions that hurt us last year, especially after we had to slip into the depths of the roster due to injuries. I think some are just maybe a bit more optimistic than you, based on that. And, that's ok. Doesn't bother me. Like I said, I get where you're coming from, I dont fully agree, and that's ok too.

    I think you're selling Tannehill a bit short at 14-17, but I don't think you're that far off either, so I can't say much more there about that because as I said earlier, I'm not big on comparing him to others, so when I'm thinking you're selling him short at 14-17, I'm thinking statistically. However, that being said, I think we will see him take another step forward this year with Gase in year 2. Improvement was there last year, another year should help that. Especially if we can improve the roster more through the draft.
     
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  21. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    What I have used is the team passer rating taken from the season summary page at pro-football reference. (2016 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/), and the total passer rating from each year.
    I have found using truncated data reduces the effectiveness of the correlation between win% and passer rating.
    The yearly NFL average passer ratings are:
    2006: 78.5
    2007: 80.9 (+1.57 over straight line trend 2006-1016)
    2008: 81.5 (+1.34)
    2009: 81.2 (+0.21)
    2010: 82.2 (+0.38)
    2011: 82.5 (-0.21)
    2012: 83.8 (+0.32)
    2013: 84.1 (-0.09)
    2014: 87.1(+1.96)
    2015: 88.4 (+1.60)
    2016: 87.6

    I found a few errors where I had the wrong year average in the wrong cell. Numbers are revised as follows.

    Average NFL Passer rating adjusted to 2016 base. 88.66
    Offence
    Standard deviation: 12.00
    Correlation to win%: 0.67

    Defense:
    Standard deviation: 8.99
    Correlation to win%: -0.52

    Difference between offensive and defensive passer rating
    Standard deviation: 15.90
    Correlation to win%: 0.80
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Ohh! Now I see what you're doing. The "straight line trend" you're using is a line between 78.5 in 2006 and 87.6 in 2016.

    What you really want is the "true" straight line trend. That is, the line that fits all 11 years best (minimizes cumulative distances between data and the line). If you plot from x=0 for 2006 to x=10 for 2016 that "best-fitting line" equation is:

    PR = 0.9064*x + 78.9045

    Use that line and you get:
    2006: 78.5 (-0.4045 under straight line trend)
    2007: 80.9 (+1.0891 over line)
    2008: 81.5 (+0.7827)
    2009: 81.2 (-0.4237)
    2010: 82.2 (-0.3301)
    2011: 82.5 (-0.9365)
    2012: 83.8 (-0.5429)
    2013: 84.1 (-1.1493)
    2014: 87.1(+0.9443)
    2015: 88.4 (+1.3379)
    2016: 87.6 (-0.3685)

    Add all those deviates up and you get -0.0015.. the error not being precisely zero because the equation minimizes sum of squares of the deviates, not the absolute value of them (technical detail).

    So that explains why most of your data points are above your straight line trend. Better to use the equation I put up there.

    btw.. there will still be a very tiny discrepancy between averages computed this way and the true average even if you use the best-fitting line because attempts per year aren't identical.. but that's another story and the errors should be tiny.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
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  23. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We've had many posters here downplay Ryan for years, and Wilson as well.

    Ryan Tannehill has been a 12-14 rated QB. Circumstances and improvement may push him up to top 8 ish.

    I've never called for Tannys replacement or benching. But if I'm not all roses I get push back. Let Tannny stand on his own. If someone tries to argue a similar ranked player is better, fine. Push back.

    But when you knock on clearly better players it's silly.

    Same with Kirk Cousins. Well two years later he looks better.
     
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  24. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, ultimately it's a hot topic, we all get that. At least this is a thread specifically around it. It's when it leaks into other threads it bothers me.

    Agreed on the frustrations with those bashing others who've had success. I think everyone gets so caught up always in trying to compare these guys, I'm not a huge fan of that as I said previously, it's too circumstantial IMO. The QB's success hinges on so many other parts of the team, and every team is different, opponents are different, even comparing QB's against common opponents is flawed IMO. Sure, it gives you a bit of a comparison, but it's never a "fair" comparison because they play on different teams. It just makes the argument more... complex.

    I've always been a bit surprised by the push back you've gotten, you're pretty thorough in your statements and opinions which, at least to me anyways shows it's not an unfair bias, it's an opinion you've formed based on what you believe you've seen. It's ok to disagree with that, and it's ok for you to think that way, and it's ok for that to be disputed. I think we just need to understand and respect those opinions, and the fact that we're maybe not going to be able to change someone's mind.

    Maybe I'm the one who's wrong. I just try not to view the players in a vacuum. This game is too dependent on everyone on the entire team to study one or two particular players under a microscope like that. That's just how I feel. Of course there's things we can look at in that regard, but it's difficult I think, and I think that's where a lot of the real issues and frustrations come up in these QB related discussions when people look at it in different capacities. Oh well, that's the beauty of talking football.
     
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  25. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks bud, for recognizing that. I don't hate Ryan, or even dislike him. I want to see him succeed, so I wanted to see more. Around here that makes me a Ryan hater for some reason (well we know the reason).

    I understand there are extenuating circumstances that affect a QBs success. But that doesn't make me throw everything out. I can still watch his play despite the terrible circumstances and form an opinion. I'm just not ready to crown him, when he doesn't deserve a crown. He's always played at starter level and I've always said that. If you think a draft pick could be the next Aaron Rodgers and he drops in your lap, do you pass him up because of RT? That's a tough question.

    Do you cut or trade Tannehill? Absolutely not. He's a starter in this league I've always said. You don't get rid of those unless you struck gold with a top tier QB. Tanny is a solid starter. With Gase's tutelage, you hope to see him develop. I see Philip Rivers as maybe his ceiling. A 4.2k, 30/10 type season regularly. You can win with that.

    But I'm still going to criticize him when he deserves it.
     
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  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I don't think you're an RT hater. I do think, however, that you hold him to a higher standard and give him less of a benefit of the doubt than Brady and a few other QB's. Which is your right, of course.

    Although, I think you do this because you find Brady perrty....Amiright? lol

    Saying that, there are definitely some RT haters on this forum.
     
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  27. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    This is a reasonable stance but I actually feel differently. I don't think he can average 4.2k 30/10 regularly. I think that's about his peak season. Phillip Rivers is clearly better despite having a worse team. And I don't see the point in hanging on to him or any other QB that you don't think you can win a SB with unless your team is historically great.


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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, me personally, I don't have a problem with holding Tannehill to a standard, AS LONG AS you hold all QBs to that standard. Why we seem to get into arguments is because you come across, to me, as holding Tannehill to a different standard than other QBs. I've always maintained that I don't have a problem with legitimate criticism of Tannehill.
     
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  29. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But see, that's your bias making you think, I'm holding him to a different standard. Every QB is going to have a different team around him, with different coaching, and different circumstances. If you're going to hold onto something unique about Tannehill to differentiate him then no QB can ever be evaluated against his peers.

    Take Andrew Luck right now, go see his thread. Yes you can look at his passer rating and say, see, no better than Tannehill. Almost identical. In fact, some have. Do you think they've played at the same level? Luck had a terrible 2015 there is no getting around that. Then we hear he tore his shoulder early and has played with it since, now just getting surgery on it. Despite that, despite a team with not a lot of offensive talent (TY Hilton is pretty good), no run game, crappy oline, coaches that insist on a down the field offense despite oline, etc. etc. etc. I think they've had one 100 yard rusher in 5 years.

    Yet he had a damn good year. Better than any year Tanny has had, despite the same crap coaching, and playing on a shoulder that needed surgery. Despite that, some want to paint him as equal to Tanny. Do you believe that? But that's the stuff I push back on.

    I look at Tanny and think, am I happy with his play, despite the crappy circumstances around him. I take into account the oline, the coaching, etc. But is he doing the things he can still do, that's under his control. You've got Ravens players telling the TV staff he's easily rattled by pre-snap movement. Do I think he'll get to where we can be consistent contenders, and if so, when? He's 29, no spring chicken.

    I want to know, NOW, that he's the guy. So far, it's looking like he is. Year 2 under Gase, a coach I love (first one in a while) will be very telling. His stretch down the end was very promising. He looks the part of a 2/3 tier guy.
     
  30. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Especially at the price we're paying, we paid Hartline on potential he never reached, and we know how that ended.

    You have to take a really strong hard look at a QB who still needs to take strides in his 6th year starting, for whatever reasons, it's not a historically good omen to say the least.
     
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  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    ESPN's NFL Nation reporters and ESPN The Magazine contributors polled more than 100 players (not every player answered every question) and found a similarly sensible consensus. While 72 percent of respondents believe the Patriots were responsible for lowering air pressure of the footballs...

    -@ReggieWayne_17 "There is no way Tom Brady can win MVP because he was caught cheating this year."

    Marshall Faulk: Patriots cheated to beat Rams in Super Bowl



    I guess, in your book, that settles that. ;)
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Jdang, its not just my bias. Now, you clearly feel that Luck is better...you point out all the negatives he's dealt with, but come to a conclusion that despite the stats, he's outplayed Tannehill. But, for Tannehill, you seem to ignore the negatives around him. Perhaps that just your bias. Perhaps I just don't get how you think. I'm just saying how you come across to me. I know I come across, or people perceive me as "loving Tannehill," even though I don't.

    Finster, all things considered, we're not paying Tannehill something outrageous. He's paid like a starting QB in the NFL gets paid.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
  33. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Finster doesn't believe in numbers. That's why he keeps repeating the false belief that RT is getting some kind of top QB money and why he still thinks the Dolphins gave up 4 picks for Carroo. haha
     
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  34. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I agree completely but I'm more worried about time than money.

    He'll be 29 by the time his 6th season begins and he hasn't had one breakout season. He's played poorly when he had chances to clinch a playoff spot. He shows just enough to keep us wondering if he's worth hanging on to. Some of his statistics have progressed, others have regressed. I don't have more patience.


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  35. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Whats amazing is that you can't add 2+2.

    2016 draft picks, 3rd we used to draft him, 6th we traded.
    2017 draft picks, 3rd we traded, 4th we traded.

    2+2=4

    I guess you didn't take calculus, lol.
     
  36. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didn't. I just cited you the negatives Luck had to face because they're the same ones Tanny had to face. I didn't pull them out of thin air. It is almost word for word the negatives Tanny has had to face. Bad coaching. Bad oline. Run game. Hell Tanny has had good runners just not a 50/50 commitment to it. Luck hasn't even had that.

    I didn't cite those negatives because of some coincidence. It's acknowledging what Tanny has had to face.

    Despite that, and despite an injury to his throwing shoulder that required surgery, despite still having bad coaching (we can all agree Gase is a damn fine coach) he outperformed. Tanny had good coaching and no shoulder injury if you are counting. And Ajayi. Other than TY is there anyone on that offensive roster you lust for? Their 2nd rated receiver Jack Doyle maybe? Dorsett? Montcrief?

    If you want to call Luck overrated, that's fine. He hasn't been the second coming of Jesus. He's almost a Matt Stafford level QB right now. But to argue there isn't much sunlight between the two is going too far.

    Even though my citation of Luck's negatives is a direct acknowledgement that Tanny faced them, you walk away from my post thinking I ignore them when discussing Tanny.
     
  37. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well Finster, gonna have to disagree with you. It's 3 picks. We manufacture that 3rd rounder so we gave up the 6th, and the 3 and 4 from 2017. It's still too much. But it's 3.
     
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  38. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You quote the wrong post?

    21 of 21 white NFL players voted for Trump in a poll.

    You want to use NFL player polls as a barometer of truth? I've got some news for you ... I present two Dolphins

    http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-netwo...d-Knocks-Tannehill-doesn-t-know-his-divisions

    http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-netwo...ard-Knocks-William-Hayes-believes-in-mermaids
     
  39. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I think it's best if the critics like myself just don't participate in Tannehill threads anymore. We're not convincing anybody. We'll just let things play out and see what happens.


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  40. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Still adding the phantom pick
     
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