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Draft Grade Round Up

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fin D, Apr 29, 2017.

  1. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I loved the positions we targeted, but I did question some of the talent we left on the board at the picks. I would still give us a strong B to B+ rating. Unfortunately this draft class just makes our draft from last year look that much worse. I have last years draft sitting at about a D+. I have my fingers crossed that this draft represents the new way Miami approaches the draft.
     
  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    See, for me, I don't understand factoring in who was on the board/value/etc. I say that because you never know who is going to bust out or excel. It's like when everyone freaked out when we didn't take Brady Quinn. If you grade based on those things, then the grade becomes meaningless because it can change based on things that weren't your pick. If you just grade on fit and need, then your grade can only change based on the players you chose not others.

    Now, later on, after time, it's perfectly acceptable, IMO, to grade based on who was on the board when you picked versus the player you grabbed...just not right after.
     
  3. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, Fin D, appreciate you pulling a bunch of different reports and putting them in one spot.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  4. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sure any player in the draft can excel or bust which is why I said this is more of a pass/fail situation and I am going to default to pass most of the time assuming there was sound reasoning behind the decision. But you can't deny that there have been times when the choice is questionable given who else was still remaining. Jake Long vs Matt Ryan is a good example of this. While I favored Long (because IMO he had the higher floor) I understand the logic in downgrading the pick a bit because you gave up the chance at a franchise QB. This gets debated quite a bit though because Ryan wasn't considered a slam dunk at QB. But what if the Colts picked Kalil instead of Luck, I think most would agree that would have been a WTF moment.
     
  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    What if Oakland drafted Joe Thomas instead of Jamarcus Russell?

    Again, grade that way a few years after the draft, but right after it's too much of a crapshoot.

    The point I'm trying to make (and failing it seems, lol) is that grading right after the draft should be about removing as many variables as possible to get the most accurate grade. Since no one knows if any of these players are going to bust or boom or be average, all you can really do is check the fit and need.
     
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    D+? Any draft where you get a top notch LT is worth a C- at a minimum. If Howard turns into a good boundary corner that gives them a C. Two good players at important positions? That is minimum a C.
     
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  7. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I gave it a D+ based on what that draft potentially cost us in this draft as well. I didn't like the Carroo trade. I really didn't like it then, and I have come to hate it after this draft. Tunsil is great, no complaints there. But after that we got a CB that hasn't been able to stay on the field and a WR that we paid(in draft picks) like he was great, but couldn't manage to get on the field. Drake, didn't really do anything to make me feel good about that pick. Grant pretty much scares me every time he went back for a punt return.

    Essentially we had a ton of needs on a team and walk away with 1 starter from the draft. 2 if you want to count Howard. Tunsil was gifted to us, so its really hard for me to give the front office too much credit there. I give them some credit, because they had to make a decision on risk, but he was as close to a sure thing talent wise as there is.

    If Howard breaks out and becomes elite(or even good), I could readjust my draft grade up some. But D+ is about where I feel that draft is right now. I don't claim to be any draft/scouting expert, this is all just my opinion. But I was scanning the tv screen trying to see if Ireland had somehow got a seat at the Miami Dolphins draft table again.

    Anyway, glad that's in the past. This year I was actually pleased with what I was seeing and enjoyed watching the entire draft.
     
  8. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the difference in mindset is you are looking at it from "a grading the players" standpoint and I am looking at if from "a grading the front office" standpoint.
     
  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No, I mean grading the FO too.

    Look, they are all privy to info we don't have. They've interviewed, seen medicals, often had tryouts on specific things, etc. All we are going by is a little bit of game footage and a couple of people's opinions who we've chosen to respect, who all still have less info then the FOs around the league. So grading them now on value or who else was available is pointless because all of that is going to change. It's like strength of schedule before the season starts....it's meaningless.

    That's why I'm saying what I'm saying...you can't grade on anything other than does X guy fit what we're trying to do and does he fill a need or want. That doesn't mean if we need a WR and draft a WR it's all good. I mean from what we can see, does the WR we took fill the actual specifics of the particular WR need we have.

    Then, in a couple of years, when the players from that draft have more or less established whether or not they are solid, crap or JAGs....THEN you can grade the FO based on all those things. Then we can see if their vision was good or bad. Then we can see what was and wasn't good value.
     
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  10. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you are grading the FO on their decisions, isn't passing on a player as much of a decision as taking one? Sure in hindsight the decision may work out or fail but it is nevertheless a decision and can be graded at the time it was done.
     
  11. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Of course, that's what you're grading on. My point is, the value of who you pass or take is meaningless right now. The value right now is applied by people with less information than the teams. Mayock, Kiper, Walterfootball, PFF, even CK, Boomer, you, me, etc. are all operating on less info than the teams. The value is made up at this point, so grading on that value makes no sense.

    Pretend you have 5 choices...

    bicycle, book, jump, spaghetti & hammer

    ...and I wanted you to put those words in a value order, only I don't tell you what value I'm using. Maybe you look at those words and think the value should be most letters to least. So you list them:

    spaghetti > bicycle > hammer > jump >= book

    ...what if I told you the value was actually words that are obvious verbs. So now the list should be:

    jump > hammer >> book >>> bicycle >>>>>>> spaghetti

    Now, if 5 people each get to pick one of those words, and you grade them based on your initial value judgment of most letters to least, then that grade is pretty meaningless, no?
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
  12. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is what I originally said:

    Sounds like we are saying very similar things with the only difference being that I think there are rare instances where a teams selection is so far off in left field that in warrants criticism. I don't think that is the case with this draft but I don't think you can just say I'm always going to ignore who was left.

    BTW the answer is jump, book, hammer, bicycle, spaghetti
     
  13. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Lots of educated views on here. Put a lot of work into my knowledge before the draft. No big wow moves. I agree with he poster that says this seemed like a Belicick draft.

    My thought is that hopefully the draft picks make us 10% better than we were last year. We'll need them to get in play hard and be sponges because the competition is fierce this year. HAVE to blank the Pats.
     
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Again though not really.

    Had we taken Reshad Jones instead of Jared Odrick in 2010 first round, that would have been panned and from left field. In the end, that would have been a better value for the first.
     
  15. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is were you seem to be grading the players as oppose to the front office. The decision to use a first round pick on RJ would have been met with criticism at the time because he was not that highly regarded and could have been had with a much lower pick (not good value for the pick). Its like walking into Vegas and putting your life fortune on red. Red may come up and you walk out a wealthy man but that doesn't make it a wise investment strategy.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No. Who, in the end, would be better value for the 1st round pick Odrick or Jones?

    If the Dolphin's FO had picked Jones at 1, they would have been blasted after the draft. These years later, they would have been considered visionaries.
     
  17. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Again you are looking at the players in the rear view mirror and letting how they turned out effect your judgement on the front office's decision at the time. You can make a good decision and have it turn out bad and conversely make a bad decision and have it turn out good. The end results don't change how the decision should be viewed at the time it was made.

    It doesn't sound like we are going to come to a meeting of he minds on this so I would suggest we let it rest rather than hijack the thread.
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    But that's exactly what I'm saying.

    I'm saying grading the draft with values you are is meaningless. The only time using those values makes sense is a few years after.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    IMO, the exact opposite is true. There is a reason why Belicheck said something along the line, "If I was a genius, I would have drafted Tom Brady in the first round."
     
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  20. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pretty sure Belicheck was just kidding, particularly since they didn't have a 1st round pick that year.
     
  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I am not sure he was kidding. If he was smart he would have drafted Brady with their first pick. Because their algorithms and scouting was flawed, they drafted him in the 6th round.

    While it is a good story, drafting better players in lower rounds is a failure of scouting and analysis.
     
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  22. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Maybe I am not explaining this well. Its called outcome bais and if you google "good decisions bad outcome" or "outcome bias" there are hundreds of articles on it. Here is a link to one I picked based solely on the fact that it starts with a football analogy.

    http://traviswhitecommunications.com/2015/02/04/decisions-and-outcomes/
     
  23. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I think the draft is a different beast where outcome bias is not much of a factor. It isn't a split second decision.

    If a player is a "reach" in the first round and they become of hall of fame player, that is a great pick. If a player is a sure hall of famer in the first round and they become a bust (Aaoron Curry), that is a bad pick.

    In fact, if anything outcome bias works the opposite in the draft. The fact that the outcome of drafting a player in the 5th round turning out being better than the player you drafted in the 1st round, might seem like great scouting and drafting, in reality, it can be a failure since they should have drafted the player in the 5th round, in the first round if their information was accurate.
     
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  24. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is the very definition of outcome bias

     
  25. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Yet that is the only time you can evaluate the draft as being correct or not. So outcome bias is not a factor.
     
  26. TheOne

    TheOne Active Member

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    I think Tankersley who was my least favorite pick competes with Bobby McCain for the corner job. I really like the picks of Vincent Taylor and Isaac Asiata who I do believe will get alot of playing time this year, I think McMillian easily gets that starting job over Misi and Harris although I do believe will get alot of playing time will strictly be a role player this year waiting for either Cam Wake to lose a step and maybe call it a career or for Andre Branch to become what we expect just some DE who got payed alot. (I do like that we resigned Branch though)
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You only know the quality of the outcome years later. Which is my point. You can't accurately rate the outcome until the players show if they are good or not in the NFL.
     
  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why do you want tanekersly competing with a slot corner?
     
  29. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes but you can judge the quality of the decision at the time it was made. That's the whole premise of outcome bias, separating the decision process from the outcome.
     
  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    But grading now means you're basing it on a faulty value system. It's like you're grading a scientists work based on a bartenders opinion who has watched a couple of episodes of Mythbusters.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Concepts like outcome bias are useful when you can quantify the probability of different possible outcomes at the time a decision is made. How do you do that here? You can't tell me we know there is a 56% probability of Harris becoming a starter, etc...

    No one knows the probabilities of different outcomes at the time the decision was made, so outcome bias really doesn't enter into the discussion. You actually have to wait and see what the outcome is to judge.
     
  32. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So why did you start this thread?
     
  33. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Exactly. This is not like flipping a coin where the last 8 flips have been heads, so you think tails is going to come up next.
     
  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I thought it would be nice and interesting to have them all in one place.
     
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  35. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Outcome bias is a concept that is often taught as a means of evaluating management decisions. The probability of the outcome of those decisions are no more readily identifiable then the probability of a player succeeding.

    One problem we do have when we try to evaluate the decisions made in a draft is that as fans we rarely know the rational behind those decisions. So its a bit unfair to judge those decision without knowing the details. That's why in my original post I said I assume most are made based on solid reasoning and apply it as a pass/fail (usually defaulting to pass) to one aspect of grading a draft.
     
  36. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But why if you think grading at this point is meaningless?
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It is meaningless, but I still read them. Really, all of football is meaningless, I still follow the team.
     
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  38. TheOne

    TheOne Active Member

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    I probably worded it wrong, I just think right now Maxwell Howard and Lippett yes Lippett are our best corners, I think they will all outplay him at aleast this year next year though he could be better than all of them.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. if the probabilities aren't known, say in evaluating management decisions, then you can adjust your subjective probabilities any way you want to justify the decision you made, rendering the entire concept of "bias" meaningless. That is, you just make up probabilities so that your decision can be shown to be optimal (that's the "rational" you're referring to).

    So whether it's taught with or without specified probabilities, you NEED to specify the probability of each outcome and possibly the assumed value/cost/benefit of each outcome before you can talk about analyzing how optimal a decision was.
     
  40. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This isn't a statistical analysis. Its merely the theory of analyzing a decision making process and judging whether the decision was made using sound logic and the best available data.

    If you were to find out that we selected Harris because Grier liked the color of his eyes would that make it a sound decision, even if three years from now Harris is an all pro? No that would be still be a stupid decision that worked out well. That's what Outcome Basis is all about, separating the result from the decision process.
     

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