I get that. Where we really disagree is with the situation surrounding him. His oline was really that bad, they were terrible. The coaching was really that bad, they were terrible, which is why they all got fired. The defense was average, except when it counted.
Where I disagree with you Res, and why this debate continues, and why I've been stating my criticisms since watching ryan play at this level, has always been about speed of the game.. It's why Ive always talked about isolation of the QB and why the variables didn't matter for me when evaluating..it's like college scouting, you have to be able to see the player execute his own responsibilities first, take into account the variables, then give the grade. I've stated on this board over the past five years a million times that ryan had not caught up with the speed of the game, and that he needed to show a lot more awareness when it came to his own dual threat skillset, and that's why I would put him in a certain category..cause I hadn't see either trait displayed at a championship level...that's an individual thing imo.. Now, is it coincidence relative to what I have said, that we finally heard that the light came on for him mid season last year, and the direct quote that " the game finally slowed down for him" and, that he needs to do a better job keeping his offense on the field by all means necessary, including using his legs? From his head coach and coordinator both I might add..I don't think it is.. Personally I think it fits with what I've been saying all along..where it gets Grey in this debate is guys like yourself, rafs, Fin D and others and what you all have been trying to tell us, which is he's being held back by the variables..which I think is great evaluation on you alls parts.. I think both sides have been right to an extent, but where you all gain the edge is actually seeing it happen last year where he played a higher level than ever before..I wasn't as convicted that it could happen, I mean I had been right for 5 years up until that light came on..and I still need to see much more to have the conviction that you do..but five years is a long time to see it. I still feel like there will be another jump in tempo he will have to reach to win a championship, I truly feel that the QB has to be able to make individual plays, savvy athletic movements and decisions to win big playoff games, championship games, on the road.. So while regular season tempo may have slowed down for him and we see a better individual player this year (I believe we will) will we have to wait for him to catch up to championship speed.? Maybe a couple of appearance to find it? My take has always been, if the kid starts to realize how he can threaten a defense from a dual threat perspective, the game will come much easier for him, quicken the process if you will, this stuff that he has to be a master of the pocket and win from there, and running for first down when plays break down plays a minimal role in the outcome of a game, is not something I agree with... Just listen to what his coach said, he said it for me, so once I see him be aware of that very specific instruction, I will be much more confident with him going on the road to win in playoff conditions..
Do you think it's a coincidence the game slowed down for him once he got some protection, a commitment to the run game and the ability to audible?
I think it's to complex to analyze in a box like that..I think you have to watch the individual and see how he deals with poor line protection, and how fast he does everything..usually when your line sucks you have to speed everything up on your own, or get yourself out of trouble and make plays
But... here we are..the light came on and speed slowed down, now we all get to see what that level of play will look like... before I believe 100 percent I still have to see a few traits that I haven't..when I see them I will know he's thinking at a high level and the game has slowed down enough where I trust his game on the road in the playoffs.
I do believe ryan is smart enough to understand what his coach is asking him to do...still waiting to see it though..and I don't mean once in a while...consistent awareness is what he's talking about..please don't come back and tell me something like "he's shown it before"..... that's his freakin coach telling you what's up...it's his next step in becoming a champ qb
Did you just tell me it's more complex than that? Seriously? Deej, I have been for years trying to get you to understand how complex it actually is and you literally refuse to see it as complex. I have tried to get you to understand that even pressure is complex. On top of that, it's you and the others that are compartmentalizing this issue. You guys take EVERYTHING separately in regards to Thill. You think he can't handle pressure but don't understand the types of pressure. You all refuse to acknowledge how interconnected all of the things are from coaching, to line play, to bad receivers, to no run game, to not being able to actually audible.....and you are telling me I'm making this too simple?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!? I love you bro, but you're out of your mind on this....
Yeah, its very simple. You take a raw, unpolished QB, give him a terrible oline, average at best receivers, bad coaches, and underused run game... and you get a QB who looks lost. Take that QB, give him a coach that believes in him, uses the run game, allows his input in game planning, allows him to audible, and give him decent oline play, and he suddenly looks like he knows what's going on. It's really that simple.
The coaching was 110% more devastating to his progress than those two fat lineman. QBs with the right tools can compensate for many things to a degree. But when Joe Philbin and Zac Taylor and telling you how to play QB it can't be a good thing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
He has had pretty damn good WRs all but 2 seasons. Imagine if me and some others were touting some narrative that "Ryan needs a Pro Bowl RB and a QB that made tim tebow look good to finally look like a top 10 QB" Guess what. We would be wrong. The main group of "us" and the main group of "you" all are living in the same building, but just with different views. I'm actually more confident in my cohorts that he will absolutely take that next step. I saw a different QB down the stretch. And yes, one of his best games I saw him play J-train was bottled up and he was getting constant pressure up the middle. This was the 49er game, if you get a chance re-watch it. ****ty G's? No problem. No 200yd or even 100 yd rusher? No problem. He played QB at a high level despite these shortcomings. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
its more complex because you can learn a lot about a qb when their playing with poor variables...I learned that he's tough as hell..
No, it's more complex because everything is intertwined. And again, until you acknowledge the different levels and types of pressure, you aren't gleaning anything from Thill or any QB in regards to the rush.
I would agree that his last two seasons he's had good receivers. His first three, not so much. The years of crucial development, he had garbage receivers, garbage coaching, and garbage oline play. The three most critical things for the development of a raw QB were missing. That is why I've always had a problem with the arguments surrounding Tannehill. A very vocal group of posters have been arguing since day one that Tannehill was a problem, while ignoring the fact that he, more than most drafted QBs, needed to be developed.
he's still an elite qb...always has been, even when folks were Shi$$ing on him and calling him overrated, he never was overrated, has always met the expectations of being a blue chip qb prospect coming out of the draft, no matter how bad his line has been, how bad his running game has been, how bad his defense has been, he's still an elite player at his position, all because you can separate variables and individual talent, then project the individual talent with better variables to get an answer. many folks were taking part of that ''he's not as good as the hype said he would'' train, and I for one never wavered on the guy, and now its pretty much a universal opinion that he is elite.
Honestly, for a guy who was supposed to be the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning, I don't quite think Luck's lived up to expectations yet.
Of course everything is intertwined. Evals still need to be made on players' individual performance even though it's a team setting (I know, it's impossible and makes no sense, but that's the position coach's job, to some extent, as well as pro-player personnel assessors).
Not arguing any if that. What I'm saying is that you cannot evaluate anything without factoring that stuff in.
Yeah, but it's not like RT hasn't had a handful of games like the one he had against the 49ers with the same crappy running game and blocking.
And I believe you can, and then some. I'm all about understanding that when the variables improve around ryan his numbers will go up, see last year..that's easy stuff
DJ, many of these arguments stemmed from people blaming Tannehill for our win/loss record. Tannehill has posted pretty good stats, pretty much from the get go. So, despite all the problems with the team, Tannehill has been pretty good, except in the win department.
I don't blame ryan for everything but a QB can influence how a team performs, and wins or loses, by his own individual performance, and ability to lead. How much is very difficult to properly assess. I believe ryan can play, and win some games in this league, but I'm not evaluating him based on that, we trying to be a dynasty here, I have a level of play in mind that I'm waiting to see..it's just my opinion.. I just need to see it to move on from the position.. I guess you all have looked through the poor variables and have seen that level, then matched up better surrounding variables and feel content that he has the position covered.
But your not, WADR. You are assessing results. "Did Ryan circumvent pressure on this play? Did he "feel" it?"...is what you guys are asking. When instead it should be on this play, what kind of pressure did Ryan get, how fast was the pressure, how many people got pressure and at what point in the play? What could he realistically do to avoid those specifics? (This last one is the one you struggle with because you think virtually anything is possible when there's pressure, up to and maybe even including teleportation.) Hell, many QBs are allowed to change the play based on the defense he sees....when he wasn't. Do you honestly think great scrambling QBs don't change the play to make it easier to avoid the pressure that is coming?
Yeah, I believe that with average play aground him, the Dolphins can win significant number of games. I don't believe Tannehill can turn a turd of a team into a playoff team.
I'm not saying that Luck's ceiling isn't higher, but so far he and RT could be twins in regards to QB efficiency. Luck has a career 87.3 passer rating and RT has a 86.7 career passer rating. I don't think Luck has been on any worse teams or had any worse coaching than RT. And if everything is relatively equal in those regards and Luck is so much better, even "elite", why do his stats not show that?
Luck has had better coaching, a more consistent commitment to the run game, an easier division and permission to properly audible.
I agree, but I was trying to not get into the argument of "well Luck's coaches, O-Line, injuries etc etc" was worse. I think it's fair to just say that their teams have been relatively equal (even though I believe Luck has had the better surroundings).
Oh yeah, I wasn't saying you were wrong, I was just pointing out that if their surrounding talent was equal, these are the things Luck had in his favor to overcome those surroundings.
Fin, instincts are instincts..they can be hindered, which in Ryans case yes...but you still can evaluate in isolation to see what you feel you need to see to feel confident that you have the right guy.. I'm not saying he can't do it, I'm saying I haven't seen it yet, and it's been a while, maybe it's because of all the crap he's had to deal with and he's about to breakout..I mean I've said this before, he's an unprecedented player..what he's doing has never been done before..
If everything is equal then what's their record when they start for their teams..I honestly don't know.
Advanced Passing team record in gms started by qb(reg season) Luck: 43-27-0 pass att: 2651 gms played: 70 gms started: 70 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LuckAn00.htm Tannehill: 37-40-0 pass att: 2637 gms played: 77 gms started: 77 http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm
That's a pretty hefty discrepancy in winning percentage if the talent was equal..now Fin is right he had a better offensive coordinator and more freedom.. But, what that tells me is situational football and having the awareness to know how to convert at all costs..basically what our head coach told him what he needs to do more of.
So his age is an excuse too? Apart fom 2016 he and Tannehill have performed at nearly identical passing efficiency. No excuses his performance is well below what it should have been, and was masked by playing in an historically weak division for the first 3 yearsof his career which allowed him to pad his W-L record with 6 homecoming games a year.
When you compare Tannehill vs. Luck passer rating wise, but adjust each game's passer rating for passer rating allowed by the defense for that year, you get very small differences: http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/889624_tannehill_passer_rating_differential.png http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/785744_luck_passer_rating_differential.png Each data point in those graphs is that QB's passer rating above or below what the defense allowed for that year. The red dashed line is the best-fitting trend line and the equation in red at the top tells you what that trend looks like. For Luck it's y = 0.1981x - 6.5942, and for Tannehill it's y = 0.1859x - 7.6233. What that means is that Luck's improvement is only very slightly better than Tannehill's (0.1981 vs. 0.1859, which comes out to 6.6% faster rate of improvement for Luck) AND Luck's average passer rating differential relative to what the defense gives up is slightly better: 7.6233 - 6.5942 = 1.0291 passer rating points. That's not that much. So Pauly's right about efficiency (and this is across their entire careers). btw.. that data point for Tannehill's game #54 that's WAY above what the defense gave up was his perfect passer rating against Houston in 2015. Oh, and so there's no confusion.. "game number" goes from 1-80 (5 seasons) for both qb's.
Remove their divisional games and you see the real picture. The AFCS was horrendously bad from 2012 to 2014 woth bad offences and bad defences. The AFCE had average offences and strong defences.
