1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Predictions for W/L Record

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finsfandan, May 21, 2017.

  1. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I'm gonna go with 8-8 assuming Ajayi doesn't miss much playing time. I don't trust the defense and I don't think this team knows it should be a run heavy team. I feel that we won't have strong contributions from the draft and we missed out on opportunities.

    That being said, I think them going 10-6 last season gives them confidence in their HC and in themselves and they'll overachieve. If it wasn't for that I'd say they go 7-9 or 6-10.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  2. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

    1,216
    686
    113
    Feb 4, 2016
    What did you predict we'd finish last year?

    IMO, we are MUCH better than last year. We have far more depth on a team riddled with key injuries.

    A few tidbits:

    Ajayi wasn't even on the travel roster week 1 last year. Now he's s top 100 player.

    Cam Wake now has a clone that he can help mold.

    We didn't have any players like McMillan or Timmons last year.

    The passing game is "DeVante Parker" away from being elite.

    Three second year players that could break out (Drake, Carroo, and Grant).

    We have a FO and HC that have a system and are executing a plan....

    I say 10-6, host and win wildcard game.
     
    the 23rd and Puka-head like this.
  3. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    we are a better team going into camp than last year. Not only with personnel, but the team is in the second year of a coaching staff. 7 wins? We should sweep the Jets and Bills, and that's 4 wins there. I also think we can start off 4-0. They indeed overachieved last year, but there are things on the brink in the post above me that I agree with. Parker and Drake arena line for breakout years. We are a Tannehill away from being elite
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I had us going 10 and 6 last year...

    I will stick with the same this year, against what seems to be a tough schedule..I will also say I think we have a better chance because of our specific improvements, to go 11 and 5 over 9 and 7.

    Xavier Howard is a beast against the run..he missed a lot of games in his rookie year.

    Lawrence Timmons is a beast against the run.

    Kwon is a beast against the run

    Reshad jones is a beast against the run.

    William Hayes is good against the run.

    5 upgrades and major reps added to a defense that was horrible last year.

    Offenses 2nd season in system should lead to coming out of the gates quicker that last..Should lead to us reversing the record from last years 1 and 4, and, we got better as the year went on..that trend should continue and get us to 10.

    Ryan tannehill should improve..there are no excuses..not even the interior line will be one..why you ask, because he's been told what to do by all his coaches..so if that rush is coming up the middle, recognize it, don't sit there and wait for your receiver to get open, recognize and bail quickly, using your legs to make a play, running past the Los or running to reset the platform.

    The season imo comes down to whether he gets that specific message, and adds it to the overall strategy of winning the game.
     
    Fin-O, jdang307, Fin D and 1 other person like this.
  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,815
    10,319
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    I hate pre-season predictions on how we are going to finish the season as I have been so optimistic in the past, only to have been kicked in the nuts by year's end. Last year I predicted 8-8; Met Jeff Cross during the Dolphins' game against Atlanta in Orlando and he predicted 10-6, to which I thought he was cray, but seeing how that is still a HUGE man, I didn't tell him that (lol) and we did indeed finish 10-6.

    On PAPER, we are a much improved team over last year's but football isn't played on paper and I've already expressed my concern over our BRUTAL first 5 games in which we're traveling 12K miles in five weeks. I fear the sophomore slump is going to curse Gase and we're sadly only going to finish 8-8.

    Jeff Cross, where are you my friend? :winks2:
     
  6. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

    3,087
    2,038
    113
    Jul 27, 2013
    I think that this seasons sched will be much tougher, and TC is where you start to really get a feel, but early on I think we are near a 500 team with a couple wins in either direction, and that will be on the QB.

    I think we are in store for a lot of close games again this year but vs better teams, so the QBs will be crucial imo.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I think Gase is to stringent to allow any so called sophomore slump..to me there is no logic in regressing performance wise..

    I also think the Suh affect comes into play here, this is why you pay him the big bucks..he's not going to have a slump..and I believe his presence doesn't allow others to slack..
     
  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Predictions are cool. I'm going with 9-7.

    But if you asked our predictions after 1-4 or whatever, what would it have been? And that's after watching the team for over a month. So unpredictable and never give up hope!
     
    Gaijin and finsfandan like this.
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    It's way too early for predictions, especially since our best three chances at winning ended the year on injured reserve (RT, Jones, Pouncey).
     
  10. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,142
    2,339
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    A tougher schedule balanced out with an improved team. Once again, I'll go with 10-6 and a wildcard spot. Depending on the match-up (love to play the AFCSouth winner for example) we might actually see a Dolphin playoff win for the first time since the 2000 season.
     
  11. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

    596
    724
    93
    Dec 31, 2014
    My prediction before last season began was 11-5 and a divisional victory. After the 1-4 start, I changed my tune to 4-12 and a top-five draft pick.

    This year, I'm once again predicting 11-5 and an AFC East victory, but I'm going a little more bold: Miami will be undefeated at home.
    I have victories over Tampa Bay, San Diego, New York (twice), New Orleans, Tennessee, Oakland, New England (twice), Denver, and Buffalo. I have losses to Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Kansas City, and Buffalo.

    I believe our floor is 8-8, and our ceiling is 13-3.
     
  12. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I wouldn't say way too early considering the draft is over. It's still early and of course circumstances change throughout the season but it's something to talk about in the meantime [emoji846]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  13. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Wow, that's ballsy. I hope you're right but I just can't see being undefeated at home. I can see 11-5 if Ajayi is leaned on like the workhorse he is and Jones stays healthy and the LB is significantly improved. I can also see 6-10 though depending on circumstances.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  14. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I don't recall my prediction but it definitely wasn't 10-6. I hope you're right but I really do believe we need to lean on Ajayi and hope the LB group is much better and have a healthy Jones. If Parker stays healthy, I see us really overachieving and winning a playoff game but I don't see it happening.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  15. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Yeah, I see us starting off strong and going into a slump later on. I see us going anywhere from 6-10 to 9-7 depending on circumstances but if the coaching staff is better than I think, I'll be proven wrong.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    One of the team goals this year is to be undefeated at home..
     
    thetylernator likes this.
  17. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I just don't trust the LBs and I don't see any major run stoppers on our line to assist Suh. I'm afraid Parker is injury prone so we'll rely on Landry far too much. Same goes for Julius Thomas. Maybe Stills will consistently be as good as last season but I'm skeptical. Maybe if we lean on Ajayi then we'll have a rested defense that'll be as good as they can be and allow for big plays on offense.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  18. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I don't think we are a much improved team on paper, honestly. I didn't like the draft at all. Free agency, meh.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  19. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Well, make a prediction, do you see a playoff win? [emoji102]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  20. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

    15,112
    7,311
    113
    Aug 15, 2010
    Davie
    Probably 8-8, but this year's team will be better than last year's.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Timmons and a healthy Kiko are proven linebackers that can play at high levels..add the kid to the mix and you know what your gonna get from him..his floor is as plain as day to see..
     
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    William Hayes stops the run pretty good..
     
  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Who would you have picked in the first three rounds?
     
  24. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Foster, Obi, Nazair Jones.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  25. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    11-5
     
  26. ripper1961

    ripper1961 Active Member

    277
    204
    43
    Jan 13, 2014
    I don't put much stock in strength of schedule. Too many variables with injuries, drop off in play and just plain luck. I think we can duplicate last season's record just because of change in our defensive backfield. Our LB's were awful last year. Couple that with an upgraded CB situation and our D should be better.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  27. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    About last yera record
    Pros:
    We had a good record despite being in year one of new offensive and defensive systems.
    Consistently improved output from the starters throughout the year.
    Emergence of Jay Ajai.

    Cons.
    We were 7-2 in 0-7 point games. History shows that teams can expect to go 50-50 in 0-7 point games. Our record in close games is unlikely to be repeated.
    Lack of depth begind the starters.
    No player produced great season long stats. Players had good games and good stretches but no one really had a good consistent season over 16 games.

    I'd aay the cons outweigh the pros and the starting point should be we expect a lower W-L record, maybe 8-8.

    Off season moves.
    Pros.
    Maintained continuity of scheme and players.
    Most of our acquisitions are addressing lack of depth.
    Return to health of key players.
    Bills and Jets apoer to be in turmoil, especially at QB.

    Push
    Gained Timmons. Upgrades LB if he's as good as he was and he remains healthy. There are question marks because his age turns ifs into IFs.
    Pouncey. Still talented but fragile.

    Cons
    Loss of Vance Joseph
    Concerns remain at G.
    Depth at RB. Ajai's draft stock plummeted because of health concerns. We have no proven back up who can carry the load.
    The Pats seemed to get even better.

    Overall, considering that most teams should be improved in the off season, can we say that the phins improved more than most?
    Maybe a little bit.
    Put me on the books for a 9-7 season +/- 2 wins.

    I'm not worried about the SoS. Historically there isn't much correlation between predicted SoS and actual SoS.

    I'd say our off season looks like it was focussed on building a winner next year rather than this year. I like that because it is what well run franchises tend to do.
     
    finsfandan, Fin D and Simon like this.
  28. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    How do you " see this?" TJ MacDonald comes back. Plus, Miami proved last year they were better in the second half.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  29. Simon

    Simon The Other English Simon Club Member

    724
    1,281
    93
    Mar 28, 2014
    London
    This is a really good post.

    I'm also guessing 9-7 this season, and that 2018 is the season we become a real challenger.
     
  30. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    ok, should be interesting to see how yours works out.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2017
    finsfandan likes this.
  31. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Don't think he makes a huge difference on his own. I feel that way for all the reasons I mentioned elsewhere in this thread.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  32. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    Him coming back is not the sole difference, however I believe this team is built to be stronger at the end however the schedule is favorable to be getting also if there is any struggle, I might be in the middle of the season. What I mean by that is I expect people like Parker and Pouncey to be injured because they are notoriously known to be in around this time of the year


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  33. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    That's another thing I'm factoring in. Aside from the easy wins at the beginning, the schedule gets tougher, guys get banged up and injured and I just don't think we're deep enough.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  34. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    this off season sucks if we didn't not add quality depth. this is what we were told they did
     
  35. EverFin

    EverFin Active Member

    360
    126
    43
    Apr 23, 2014
    Zurich, Switzerland
    This is my "no-if-prediction". I don't say 11-5 if Jones stays healthy, if Wake's age doesn't show, if the Draftpicks contribute, if Tannehill improves, if Gase continues to be a good HC, if Howard stays healthy, if Ajaji stays healthy and performs like last season, if we finally got some LB's, if we finally got some Guards, if Shu continues to dominate, if DeVante finally becomes a real Football player if, if, if...

    This Game almost guarantees a certain amount of injuries - it's not an if, it's more of a reason to build a roster with quality depth. I don't predict with the hope or guess, that a 5 year QB develops into a Pro Bowler or other player reach their ceiling.

    I just have my own opinion about the qualitiy of the roster and Coaching staff:

    11-5
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2017
  36. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

    32,070
    22,827
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Concord, MA
    tougher schedule on the surface, but in hindsight, I'm not as taken aback as I was when I looked at our September schedule last year.
    We are a better team. going with same record though 10-6.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    This is exactly the same prediction I'd make but based on using stats alone.

    Across Tannehill's entire career, the number of passer rating points above or below what his opponent gave up for that year is shown in this graph:
    http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/889624_tannehill_passer_rating_differential.png

    Extrapolate that best-fitting line (equation in red) to the midpoint of the 2017 season and you will predict Tannehill will have a 96.5 passer rating based on passer rating points above 2016 average passer rating.

    Average passer rating in the NFL has stayed steady last 3 years at 87.1-88.4 (in 2013 it was well lower at 84.1). So if you take all passer ratings of QB's that started at least 5 games in 2014-2016, extrapolate their wins to 16 games, you get this:
    http://img.pixady.com/2017/05/336692_expected_wins_vs_pr_20142016.png

    Using that equation for the best-fitting line (equation in blue) for passer rating of 96.5 and you get 9.29 expected wins. As you can see with the graph it's about +/- 2 wins in either direction from that point. And as people have pointed out before SoS is hard to predict so no need to adjust for that.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Something we as Dolphin fans need to start considering that we haven't been able to since JJ's years is that we may actually have a staff that can develop and improve players.

    Maybe, just maybe some of these players some are so upset about, will possibly...improve. It does happen you know, with good coaching staffs.
     
  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    The counter to that is, if you started off with better ingredients the final dish would be even better with such good cooks in the kitchen
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I re-watched the shorts of all 2016 games last week and what I saw didn't inspire a lot of confidence.

    - We won 5 ugly games where we stunk for 2-3 quarters and stole the W in the 4th.
    - We lost 2 ugly games where we stunk for 4 quarters.
    - Two other losses were due to a complete lack of an offensive line.
    - We should have won against Seattle and NE in weeks 1-2, but it goes back to the 1st point....we pissed away far too many opportunities in the first half. Seattle in particular, we left 19 points on the field in a 12-10 loss.
    - We closed the season well because Moore & Ajayi played fairly solid as the defense completely crashed. Even still, the offense was inconsistent.

    My point here is that we could have EASILY been a 6-10 team or a 12-4 team...I couldn't find a single game in 2016 where both the offense and defense showed up for 4 quarters. We are competitive but the team is also leaving a lot of plays on the field with mental errors, so it's really hard at this point to say who will show up in 2017.

    We have the talent to win the Super Bowl...but will our boys execute with a much tougher schedule? There's just no telling. If I had to guess today, I'd say that we will go 8-8 this season. I've seen enough to know that I'll be changing my prediction towards the end of pre-season though- it all depends on how far the defense and a few key piece on offense come over the next few months.
     

Share This Page