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Spotlight on Suh at #55

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, May 23, 2017.

  1. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Again, just using passer rating is flawed. He did not outperform Tannehill.
     
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  2. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    I have an idea. Let's see who's better by letting Adam Gase decide who should start.

    I have a hunch it will be Tannehill.

    Oh and Finster is dead wrong about Suh. Suh is dominant and is paid like it.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just for info.. a difference in career passer rating of 86.5 and 82.0 (and btw if you do the proper adjustments for the different years they played in you get 86.33 and 81.86 so unadjusted is still accurate) is worth approximately 0.675 more wins per season (using 2014-2016 data) so it's not a negligible difference.

    In any case, if we kept Moore he'd only be cheap for one year so at the end of the day Tannehill will have to prove himself to leave no doubt in 2017 so that we can finally end this Tannehill debate. Whatever side you're on you better hope he does that or we're in some deep ****!.
     
  4. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean by proper adjustments?

    I don't know about you but 0.675 more wins per season isn't worth the difference in their salaries. If you took the difference in their salaries and paid it out to other position groups like OL or LB, you'd probably be better off. I'd like to see what the current Browns front office would think of that because they don't seem to want to reach at QB.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Career passer rating is calculated by assuming all component stats (completion%, Y/A, TD%, INT%) came from the same game, even if they come from different games in different years. So career passer rating (what you quoted) is different than just taking averages of passer rating.

    So to properly adjust for different years you have to take each component stat for a given year (let's say completion%), divide that by the average (completion%) for that year and then multiply it by the average for a target year (in this case 2016), the year you want to adjust all stats to. Then all the component stats are so to say in the same "units" (in 2016 units) and you can sum them and plug them into the passer rating formula.

    Out comes the "adjusted" career passer rating. This is worth doing if you're going to compare passer ratings over different years because the average passer rating in the league has changed quite a bit over the years (e.g. in Matt Moore's first year 2007 the average PR was 80.9 while in 2016 it was 87.6).

    I actually doubt you could improve expected win% by 0.675 at almost any other position (or at multiple positions using that salary difference) than QB that easily. And even if you could you can't count that increase in win% for more than one year because you'll have to pay starting QB salary to Moore if you keep him longer.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh, NFL players are the barometer for intelligence now?

    Here is your current Miami Dolphin



    Oh he's an ESPN analyst? Wow. Okay. I guess I stand corrected then. ESPN analysts never resort to hyperbole. Which Bengals staffs is he talking about by the way? The ones when Esiason was playing? the Jeff Blake era? The worst one you can find would be Coslet/Lebeau yet Kitna not only survived them, went on to play for a long time. Carson Palmer?

    So what Bengals staff is he talking about? The only QB to flame out would be Akili Smith and he survived 6 seasons. yet Kitna was developing beside him so you can't make the argument it was the staff.

    If you don't get the absurdity if what you're saying there isn't much I can tell you. That somehow Tannehill was able to survive the horrific coaching staffs of Mike Sherman and Philbin, yet other HOF QBs wouldn't have. And would be out of the league after just 5 years.

    What specifically is it about Tannehill that makes him tailored to surviving Philbin Sherman, yet other QBs couldn't? Please, expand on that. Let me guess, toughness? So what is unique about Tannehill that would allow him to not only survive but play decently well under Sherman, Lazor and Gase, while TB and others would be out of the league by now. Unless you have a compelling reason you are essentially arguing RT>>>>>>>TB. So tell us. Philbin was a tool but Sherman has a history and experience. What trait does Tanny possess that makes him the Survivor.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2017
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  7. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff. I disagree that you'd have to pay Moore starting QB money if you keep him any longer. He won't get that money anywhere unless Tannehill gets injured early and Moore duplicates what he did last season all next season.


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  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, to be fair, Moore came in cold, without the starter reps Tanny has had the luxury of since his rookie year. 87 in that situation is pretty impressive actually. As impressive as Tanny's 91 with an entire season to himself. Maybe even more.

    And if you adjust it like cbrad does, what does that number come out to? Cbrad? :D
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Adjusting passer rating for a single year is really easy: divide the passer rating by the league average PR for that year and then multiply by league average PR for your target year. League averages you can get here:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    So if you're looking at Moore's 2011 season where he had a 87.1 rating, divide 87.1 by 82.5 (2011 league average) and then multiply by 87.6 (2016 league average), giving you an adjusted 92.48 for Moore in 2016 ratings. Easy enough you can do the rest yourself for other years.

    The reason it's this simple when adjusting for a single year is because that year's PR already combines all the individual stats for that year and computes a PR as if all those stats were from a single game. So no need to do what I did before. You have do the kind of thing I did before when you combine across multiple games or multiple years.
     
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  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    From 2002 to present the trend for passer rating is to increase by nearly 0.75 points per year.
     
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  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Disclaimer in advance...I didn't read every post in this thread before commenting, so apologies in advance if I'm saying something that's already been said. With that being said...

    Last year our defense sucked to the highest level of sucktivity. Apart from Suh, Wake and Alonso (playing one handed mind you), the level of play defensively was atrocious, particularly against the run! Now there were defenders of our defense who tooted their horns about how few points our defense allowed, but when you are 31st in the league in yards against the run...smh...you're GOING to lose.

    Now as many of you know, I was NO fan of Vance Joseph as our DC. I think he was overrated, he was in over his head, his defensive strategies flat out SUCKED and he wasn't able to make adjustments, thus teams rolling over our defense. One can argue the overall talent of the defense {albet the 3 mentioned above), but when you have Suh and Wake on the LOS reeking havoc, and a play steering away from Alonso in the secondary, damn it, even average NFL players should be able to stop plays from progressing to yard producing plays if their defensive scheme is well planed and well executed. This is why I place more blame on Joseph. He was the defensive play caller.

    Talent wise, I feel we are improved defensively...there are players here now with better overall talent and that is a good thing, but is Matt Burke up for the challenge to stepping up as DC? Will his defensive schemes dominate and shut down running and passing lanes? Does he have the ability to make adjustments and shut down offenses that are exploiting weaknesses on the field? We won't know until the season starts.

    Offensively, Miami is a MUCH improved team than it has been years past. We're committing more to the run which is keeping defenses honest and taking pressure off of Tannehill which overall has produced a pretty effective offensive unit, but if the defense isn't as improved this year, I'm afraid we're going to be looking at either just missing the playoffs or squeaking in and an early exit.

    The first 5 games this season, which I've commented about frequently in other threads worry me due the extensive travel, will set the tone this year. If we are on the upper end of .500 after those 1st five games, the rest of the league had better not underestimate us. The defense, not the offense is going to set the tone for this year's success or failure.

    Matt Burke, I hope you're up to the challenge!
     
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Says the guy who repeatedly resorts to using what an NFL player said about RT in order to push his agenda that the offense was dumbed down for him....

    You've once again fallen for a simple trap set by yours truly...lol
     
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  13. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Thought it said SS, as in Strong Safety

    Would love to see that.
     
  14. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Without Suh we don't even make the playoffs last year.
     
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  15. Gaijin

    Gaijin Member

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    I thought Suh played better in his second season as a Dolphin, he just didnt play very well in the last two games against Patriots and Steelers and probably that's why his ranking is down from last year, for some recency bias. Anyway i dont put much weight into this stuff, it's really tough to rank players and I dont even know how much the same players know about players on teams they dont play.

    In the general argument about interior D-Line I think he is one of the very best and for what I've seen he is the most double teamed of the elite DT. I dont get exactly why Aaron Donald isnt double teamed more but even Donald isnt double teamed that much imho.
     
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  16. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    My understanding was that the offense was simplified, but not for Tannehill. It was simplified for the other offensive players.
     
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  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And that's most everyone's understanding. lol
     
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  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can certainly understand however you want. Or you can go on Gase's words where he says it was a lot for the QB, and a lot for the WRs. He didn't say it was a lot for everyone EXCEPT for the QB.

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...djustments-helping-tannehill-dolphins-succeed

    I don't get how you can read that, and take away "it was for everyone but the QB." I mean, it's really just plain English.

    Sure, you can assume Gase doesn't speak plain English.

    But hey, whatevs.
     
  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You have to read the entire quote. He's saying it's too much for RT to have to constantly correct everyone else.

    ANNNNND...you're once again using Weddle as your measuring stick.

    First you, admittedly so, don't think NFL players are smart enough to give their opinions.
    Second, Gase shot Weddle's opinion down with a sarcastic, albeit subtle, remark.
     
  20. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In that same article Gase is also quoted as saying this about RT:

    That seems like plain english to me.
     
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  21. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Well I read that article and Gase didn't said that RT had to correct other players too much, Gase said;
    "It made things a little easier than just running up to the ball and trying to get the perfect play. We weren't there yet," Gase said. "It's a lot on the quarterback's plate. It's a lot on the receivers' plate as well, as far as knowing every little detail of every concept we're running."

    As far as Weddle is concerned, this is what Gase said about Weddle's comments;
    "Yeah, that's why Eric is who he is. He knows this offense probably as well as anyone outside this building," Gase said. "Really, it came down to just trying to make sure all of us were on the same page. We were having some issues early. It was one guy here and there. We'd have an issue with the play we called and we felt like maybe we just needed to rein it in a little bit and let everybody be on the same page."

    JD isn't quoting Weddle, he's quoting Gase, but at the same time Gase didn't refute anything Weddle said, if fact he lauded him for his knowledge of the O, as Weddle has be playing vs Gase for several years now.
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    See, the problem is you're supposed to believe a player from another team and not Thill's actual coach.
     
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  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Gase threw a dig at Weddle. That wasn't a compliment.
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I have to disagree.

    If you take this entire article and other articles on this subject it becomes quite clear that RT was picking it up just fine.

    As for Gase's comment about Weddle, it's a backhanded jab basically saying that Weddle is wrong.

    Gase said, "He knows this offense as well as anyone outside this building." I'm outside of the building, do I know it too? lol.... And the "Eric is who he is" comment is funny too...meaning he's not a coach, not a part of the Dolphins...i.e.: He has no clue what he's talking about.

    Gase was disagreeing with Weddle in a sarcastic way.
     
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  25. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    This is the sentence that prefaced Gase's comment;

    "Gase credited Weddle, the former Charger who even faced Gase last year when he was the Bears' offensive coordinator, with his knowledge of what the Dolphins are doing."
     
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    lol...And the writer also didn't pick up on the sarcasm.

    If Gase wanted to credit Weddle why not say, "Eric knows this offense better than anyone outside of this building"? He didn't though, he said "as well" not "better than". And why start off by saying "That's why Eric is who he is"? What does that mean if not a sarcastic jab?
     
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  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That was determined to be "credit" by the author of the article. That doesn't retroactively change Gase's intent. If I said "Sarah Jessica Parker was pretty like a race horse", a person may determine I was being complementary, when I wasn't.

    The author, like many other people, missed the dig.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What Gase really meant is testable is it not?

    If we take Weddle at his word and accept that only a Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers can run the type of offense Gase ran with Manning, then we shouldn't expect Tannehill to be able to do it in 2017 (Weddle never suggested Tannehill belongs in that group).

    If on the other hand it's really only the surrounding cast that couldn't get up to speed, then we should see a lot more no-huddle and check at the line plays this season because there's no reason to think our WR's can't do what Manning's WR's did with sufficient practice (not in any quote there).

    Personally.. I doubt Tannehill can run the type of offense Peyton ran. One thing he's never demonstrated to me is the ability to run a good 4 minute or 2 minute offense. But any improvement in that regard - even if it never gets close to Peyton Manning level (I mean seriously.. Peyton was maybe the BEST at this!) - is welcome. So maybe we'll see some improvement but never see Tannehill run a Manning-like offense. At least that's my prediction.
     
  29. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    You can't change common vernacular Dan, that is an extremely common term for saying he knows it well, but leaving that aside, Gase then goes on to say why what Weddle said is right;
    "Really, it came down to just trying to make sure all of us were on the same page. We were having some issues early. It was one guy here and there. We'd have an issue with the play we called and we felt like maybe we just needed to rein it in a little bit and let everybody be on the same page."
     
  30. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    There is no changing of the vernacular. Saying that Weddle knows as much as anyone outside of the building is not saying he knows much. It's saying, "Weddle is outside of this building and doesn't know anymore than someone else outside of this building." To top it off he wrote, "That's why Eric is who he is".... Well, who is he? Why say that? It was a sarcastic remark made to the media about a player who Gase feels doesn't know what's going.

    No one is suggesting that the offense wasn't simplified. The argument was over who was it simplified for? Gase has said over and over that he trusts RT's decision making. Has he said this about any other player?
     
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  31. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    You are in fact changing the vernacular, "knows it as well as anyone" means he knows it as well as anyone, lol, which means to the highest degree, like saying "he can high point the ball as well as anyone".

    Gase said it was a lot on the QB's plate, he didn't leave RT out of the equation, then there's just pure common sense, the QB has to know everyones job, the WRs only have to know their job.
     
  32. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    But you're leaving off the "outside the building" part. When you put those two parts together it forms an insult/dig not a compliment.

    If I said you were really terrible in the sack, your significant other could say, "Fin D knows as much about our sex life as anyone outside our bedroom". She would be insulting me and pointing out I don't have the foggiest inkling of what I'm talking about because I'm not there and I'm not privy to the actual facts...and she'd be right.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2017
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  33. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    FinD gave the perfect example as to why it was a dig. lol

    And I've already said that the system was dumbed down also because RT couldn't correct everyone who was making mistakes. He himself, however, was picking up the system.
     
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  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    In the first game alone, Gase came out and said he should have listened to Thill more.
     
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  35. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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