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Evaluating Tannehill's Value

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finsfandan, Jun 1, 2017.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I realize that the coaching, the game planning, etc. has held Tannehill back, but history doesn't make that a valid excuse. Look at Chad Henne trying to run the Pennington offense- decent enough prospect in the wrong system, and we kicked him to the curb after two seasons. Then we fired the coach that fired the QB.

    If we're looking at this from purely a financial perspective, Moore was 6 and 3 as a starter in 2011, 3 and 1 as a starter in 2016. His TD/INT ratio in 2016 was 8/3, which is ahead of CBrad's ratio. So if this is purely about money and value, Moore is the man.

    My point here is that most guys don't get six years to develop- we gave Moore 9 games total. Henne got 20 starts. Tannehill is at 76 and we're still saying "wait and see". That's rare in the NFL.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Fin D is saying if you just looked at what Tannehill did since the Pittsburgh game he would be top 10. Combine all the individual components of passer rating (comp, att, yards, TDs, INTs), treat them as if they're from a single game and compute the passer rating for Tannehill's last 8 games and you get 100.13.

    Among "starting" QB's that puts Tannehill at #6 (had he done that the whole year).
     
  3. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    How is the team mediocre? They did well with two different QBs. We've had our best roster in a while. Wake, Ajayi, Jones, Suh, Landry, Pouncey, etc.


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  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    RT threw 7 of his INT's last season in the 1st 5 games (Learning curve). After that he went 6 straight games with only 1 INT total. Then the entire team, including himself, **** the bed against the Ravens and he had 3 more INT's.
     
  5. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    who could we have gotten? The ultimate RT debate I always ask is aside from the draft, who should and could the LT replacement. who should we have gotten instead?

    Mind you, the needs wouldn't have changed on this team, the same needs like OT and corner last year and defense this year
     
  6. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Hey, I hope he can do that next season and I'm proven wrong, but I don't see that happening. We'll see.


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  7. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    This would make sense if the entire defense, majority of the o-line and the starting QB wasn't hurt.
     
  8. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Went further where? For whom?
     
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  9. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    We could've kept Moore. Not sure if Glennon or Schaub were available. I wanted to draft McCarron and Cook since then. There were options that were more cap friendly.


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  10. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    that is the expectation, otherwise we will be moving up in the draft like KC, Chic and Hou did
     
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  11. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Didn't Moore have the more run down team?


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  12. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I'm talking about a Moneyball approach. Making our money go further.


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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's funny how perception works- Moore's QB rating against the Steelers and the Pats was a 97.8 and a 93.4. He completed 80.6% of his passes in that playoff game- 29 for 36 and 289 yards. But here's the kicker- those were Moore's worst games.

    Meanwhile, Tannehill had a 97.4 rating against the Steelers and a 93.5 vs the Pats. We did beat Pitt the first time (without big Ben) so that should count for something, but it's unfair to say Tannehill played solid while Moore "played like crap". These were average games for Tannehill. His worst games were a 62.3 rating against Tennessee and a 63.1 vs Baltimore.

    My point? Last season was Tannehill's best ever with a 67.1% completion rate and a 93.5 QB rating. Yet Moore topped both of those numbers in his two losses for the year and you're saying he stunk. If that's true, then what does it say about our starter that's earning 4x the salary?
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
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  14. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    we all know that was garbage time. Miami was never in those games.
     
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  15. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Yes, you can certainly make the case that there are mitigating circumstances with RT.
     
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  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I don;t think you read the post closely enough.
     
  17. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yes, cbrad pointed out what you meant. Are you predicting Tannehill will continue that trend next season?


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  18. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    That's totally true, and I think RT's is a fairly rare case.
     
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  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Big Ben played the entire game sans 3-4 plays.
     
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  20. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There's no way to do what's being asked in this post. There is no "moneyball" equation here, because we don't know how Moore would have done in the same circumstances. What I CAN tell you from watching the games and not looking at any kind of metrics, is Ryan Tannehill before he got hurt last year, was a better QB than Matt Moore, and I don't believe it is close. Matt Moore did some good things, but he also really hurt the team in spots. I do not believe that Miami makes the playoffs last year with Moore starting 16 games. What you can also say with pretty much certainty, is Tannehill still offers considerable upside, whereas Moore does not. If Moore were your QB, you'd still be looking for the long term answer. With Tannehill, not only do you still have a chance at one, I think you have pretty favorable odds when you look at the progress he made in such a short time under this head coach.
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Why wouldn't he?

    He's had a similar run before. Those runs happen when the oline is at a minimum average for pass blocking or he has tools to counter when the oline is below average, like a commitment to the run game or being allowed to audible.

    People get tired of me saying that, but it's been proven true every single time.
     
  22. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is true, but Tannehill is somewhat of an extenuating circumstance. A) he was playing WR his freshman year in college; and B) He's played in 3 different systems in that time period. And that's not even getting into the offensive line play or the atrocious route combinations under Lazor where guys simply weren't open.
     
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  23. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah. They didn't get them fired that's true.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Such bull****.

    You're basically implying Thill got Philbin, Campbell, Lazor and Sherman fired.
     
  25. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But if you think about it, it makes sense. If Tanny took two years to develop, we'd still have Philbin. As bad as he was our teams still got to mediocre records. A Tanny who developed quickly might hav been good for a win or two.
     
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    It makes no sense. That's like blaming RT for not knowing how to swim when his hands are tied behind his back and a 45lb weight is tied around his neck.
     
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  27. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    if it meows, it's a cat
     
  28. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    is it true Philbin wanted Carr?
     
  29. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    That's the rumor. Philbin hamstrung RT from the beginning.
     
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  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ryan's contract has always been based more on potential then his current play.

    In 2017 he will realize this potential, so we good.
     
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  31. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    that's the problem. The "right guy" is subjective and the criteria to fill that description is going to vary quite a bit person-to-person. I imagine it varies quite a bit even within the organization.
     
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  32. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is not true. Last season would be the first season where Tannehill was paid above average starting quarterback wage. His contract was a combination of current play and potential, with the added benefit that if he did not reach the potential that he can be easily cut.
     
  33. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    The thing is you can't expect ideal circumstances every game. I'd love for that to be the norm, but we'll see. If Ajayi keeps getting touches and doing that well against stacked boxes (#1 in the league), I see Tannehill doing very well but not top 6, more like top 10.


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  34. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yea. I suppose having that "out" made it more of a team friendly deal even with change in guaranteed $.

    It's all working out as long as he plays like he did the middle of last season.


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  35. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I'm not making an apples to apples comparison. I'm not saying swap Tannehill for Moore straight up. I'm saying before Tannehill ever got his contract or even drafted, actually. Our team wasn't ready for a rookie QB, which is why we've spent so much time evaluating Tannehill.

    I would've locked up Moore for far less, retained players we had to let go like Sean Smith comes to mind (Davis maybe, Soliai or whatever his name was, etc). I would've targeted BPA in the draft, so that means Kuechly at #8 and tried to hit on QBs like McCarron and Cook.


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  36. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Come on. This thread has been relatively tame.


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  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    The out and the amount of salary he was paid. Last season was the first season he was paid as an above-average starting quarterback. All of the other years he was paid as much as a Glennon, Kyle Orton, Matt Schaub, and all of the other mediocre quarterbacks.

    Yes, last season and this season and all of the rest of the seasons are based on him performing well, however, he has to perform well.

    IMO, he has performed up to his contract every season since he has signed it. I do hope he takes a next step this season. I do think the modern era has changed people's perception of what it takes to be a good NFL quarterback. Back in the day a player had 5 years to prove himself. In the modern era you barely have 2 years, and offenses are much more complex than they used to be.
     
  38. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not making an apples to apples comparison, makes it a tough thing to evaluate, though doesn't it? I'm not sure I agree with the notion that they weren't ready for a rookie QB, but even if they were and he turns into a franchise QB under Gase, isn't it still very much worth it?

    I personally don't believe that I' rather Smith, Davis, Soliai, or any FA they let walk rather than Tannehill. And while I like McCarron, I don't think there's any reason to believe they would even be as good as Tannehill based off of a very small sample size. As for Kuechley, he's a legitimately great player, but having a great MLB means little to nothing if you don't have a good QB.
     
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  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But you're dismissing the entire point. If Moore's WORST TWO GAMES are better than Tannehill's 5-year average, is Tannehill worth 4 times what Matt Moore is? Because I believe that there was plenty of "garbage time" in Tannehill's 2016 season as well...just like any QB.
     
  40. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Of course it does, but that's what this thread is about. I didn't make this thread to compare QB salaries. I made this thread for people to speculate and contribute stats to try to determine which route makes the most sense.

    Idk about you but I'd take Moore, Kuechly, Miller (in addition to Ajayi), and retaining a guy like Smith over Tannehill since we've paid him his contract. Plus we could've developed a guy like McCarron and given him time instead of rushing Tannehill with one starting season in college. Obviously I wouldn't have wanted any of our coaches we had then but that's another rabbit hole.


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