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Evaluating Tannehill's Value

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finsfandan, Jun 1, 2017.

  1. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's actually an interesting topic to discuss.

    Would you rather have someone with extreme volatility, can play really well for stretches, but has some bad times. Or someone that is sort of steady eddie. Manning and Flacco have both played ridiculously well enough, for their team to win the Super Bowl. In Manning's case, in 2007 he had two great games passer rating wise, and two subpar games. But he only threw one INT vs 6 TDs which is important. .8% INT rate. 95 total rating.

    In 2011 he played great, especially considering it's the playoffs. 103 rating, 65% completion, 9/1 TD INT. 7.47 ypa. .61% INT rate.

    Flacco in 2012, well he played out of his mind. his completion % sucked, but everything else was great. And their defense and run game that year were decidedly average headed into the playoffs.

    It's like playing Skins in golf. If you are steady eddie and get a nice final good score, you might not make as much as if you completely buttfrack 9 holes, but play the other 9 very well.

    These two QBs are as hot and cold as you can find. If they get hot towards the end of the year that's a good thing. It's gotten Flacco one more ring than Dan Marino and the same amount as Aaron Rodgers.

    Sure you'd like a QB that plays relatively steady and then gets insanely hot at the end.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If winning the SB is the goal you want the guy with greater volatility as long as his average level of play is sufficient to get you into the playoffs often enough (have to make the playoffs first!). Maybe a QB that's consistently above average gets you into the playoffs more often, but then what? Above average in the regular season is average in the playoffs.

    Thing is.. how do you know which kind of QB you have? Playoffs really are a separate condition and you only need to compare Eli to Peyton to see that both have nearly identical volatility in the regular season! Eli's standard deviation across every regular season game he played is 26.97 while for Peyton is 27.49, basically the same.

    But everyone knows Peyton was elite in the regular season only. 17 years he made the playoffs! and he was instrumental in winning only one of his two SB's. Eli makes the playoffs only 6 years but is instrumental in winning both SB's.

    Anyway.. our goal is to just make the playoffs consistently enough so that we can play the odds game and maybe win a SB once a decade. It's been more than 4 decades already without one lol.
     
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  3. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would say he contributed to his first super bowl but Peyton was completely bailed out by Bob Sanders and that defense the first few games. He was terrible.
     
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  4. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The first question with Moore isn't his performane level, it's hus ability to stay on the field for sustained periods. That is why he is cheap. That is why he is a backup.
    Secondly if Moore had been on the field and performed at a level similar to Tannehill and shown durability he would get paid like Tannehill. Maybe a little less because of his age, but not $15M a season less.
    So if we had signed Moore as our QB and Drafted Keuchly we'd still be in a very similar financial position today. You see hiw Much Osweiler got paid. You see hiw much FitzPatrick got paid. You see how much Glennon got paid. Moore is arguably a better QB than all of thise guys, yet you seem to think we could have him be primary starter and pay him backup money. That isn't how the NFL works.

    And at some point we'd have to draft our QB of the future and pay him when the time came.
     
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  5. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    And a tremendous defense.

    Even then he has to make the Pro Bowl 6 times, become MVP, lead in passing TDs, win two Super Bowls and make the HOF. Forget about statistics, we're talking about two completely different eras.


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    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  6. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Like I've said multiple times, the front office could've signed Clay and Vernon before their costs skyrocketed. Smith was a free agent again recently. Miller should've been paid, we would have the best RB duo in the league. Plus you neglected to mention Kuechly, the best MLB in the game. I don't expect Tannehill to become a top 10 QB. I said he would if Ajayi and Landry kept producing the way they have. That doesn't automatically translate to me believing Ajayi and Landry can continue to defy the odds. Even then he only went 19-12 and we had the 2nd to last amount of passing attempts per game. He wasn't a difference maker.

    So what? They do well in the postseason. Give me postseason accomplishments over regular season stats any day. The only reason I talked about career ratings was because Ryan, Tannehill and Moore don't have rings. Know who else he has a higher rating than? Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon. Wow, let's crown Tannehill.


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  7. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I've said multiple times I would've drafted McCarron or Cook aside from Kuechly.

    Kuechly's contract: 5 yrs, $61.8M ($12.36M avg).
    Tannehill's contract: 4 yrs, $77M ($19.25 avg).

    Now I'm not going to get into how the cap would've been affected and who could've been signed when at what price for how long, but just give me Moore, Kuechly and Miller right now and I'm happy. Pound the rock all day with Ajayi and Miller. Move Kiko over to WLB with Kuechly at MLB right behind Suh and just below Reshad.


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  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I discount confidence as a leadership trait. The Dunning-Kruger effect has been repeatedly demonstrated, and there is an inverse relatinship between confidence and competence. For a simple example you never see Belichek boasting in public, even after the superbowl he said he was 2 weeks behind everyone else in preparing for next season.

    Getting other to follow you is NOT leadership either. Leadership is getting people to go to the right destination.

    Leadership is about the following:
    Motivation. Getting others to perform at their best.
    Development: Getting others to improve their abilities.
    Accountability: Getting others to accept responsibility and develop solutions to problems without waiting for the leader to provide it.
    Creative Problem Solving: Finding new and better ways to achieve your goals.
    Self Assessment: Accurate appraisal of your (team's) own capacities.
    Communication of vision: getting others to understand their part in the plan, and working together to achieve your goal.
     
  9. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Man, this is really getting exhausting having to break every little thing down for you. The front office signign Clay and Vernon before their contracts skyrocketed had what exactly to do with Tannehill? And AGAIN, the team was thisclose to cutting Ajayi last year without many dependable options. He was left home, and used sparingly until the Steelers game. You think he gets the same opportunity with Miller here? I think there's a fair chance he doesn't even make the team, and even if he did he wouldn't get much playing time with Miller taking the bulk of the snaps and Williams getting 3rd down snaps (like he did last year anyway because of his pass catching and blocking, two areas in which Ajayi struggled). I also don't think you can really argue that Tannehill's deal had any impact on paying Miller. But hey, if it suits your argument, right?
    I did actually mention him when I said "what does it matter if you have a great MIKE backer, if you don't have a good QB". MIKE is the MLB, aka Kuechly. I didn't discount that part of the equation, I just don't think that's worth it to have subpar play at QB.

    I'm sorry, but your exact words were" "I see Tannehill doing very well but not top 6, more like top 10." I can't keep reminding you of things you said you didn't say, but actually did AND remind you of things you said I didn't say, but actually did. Try to keep up. And exactly what odds are they defying? They're good players. Good players produce.

    As far as not being a difference maker. Was he a difference maker here:

    https://welcometoperfectvilledotcom...017/03/tannehill-dime-stills-td-sd.gif?w=1610

    What about here:

    https://thedeependmiami.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/great-tannehill-throw.gif?w=1100

    Those are legitimately two of the best plays any QB made last season. He made plenty of other "difference making" plays, but those are two that stand out the most simply because their plays that most QBs in the NFL simply cannot make.

    I take it you're not a big Marino fan then, huh? You do realize this is a team sport, right?
     
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  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Zach Thomas, Jay Fiedler.
     
  11. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    The thing is Pauly, you can't really have a leader unless he believes in himself, believing in ones self, is confidence, no one is going to follow someone who doesn't believe in himself, ergo confidence is a pre-req for leaders.

    All the things you listed are part of leadership, also part of the NFL curriculum, you're expected to do those things for your paycheck.

    A true leader motivates people to do their best, he's a walking, talking inspiration to his team mates, iow, they follow his lead.

    The trick is, and always has been, finding a guy that can capture the attention of a room full of alphas, no easy task.
     
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  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That's not really true though. It's a small example, but it's the first thing that popped into my head and it's early still....

    When my dad became paralyzed and I had to become his primary caregiver, I was ****ing terrified. He was terrified. My wife was terrified. My aunts and uncles were terrified. I didn't think I could do it, but I knew I had to go forward and everyone else would follow. So I did. We got through it and it was literally the worst 3 years of my life, but someone had to take charge...and I did even though I had no confidence at all.
     
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  13. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    What I'm saying is Tannehill's money would've been better spent on other players, even if we didn't draft Kuechly, because he's not that much better than Moore. The only counter argument that makes sense is Moore is prone to concussions. He gets the job done otherwise. You say Moore is subpar but as a Dolphin he's pretty damn similar to Tannehill for a fraction of the cost.

    I don't care what the front office has done or would've done, that's why I'm criticizing the moves we've made. At the end of the day, I know we could've had Moore, Kuechly and Miller at the very least right now instead of Tannehill.

    You took my post out of context. You're lying by omission. "The thing is you can't expect ideal circumstances every game. I'd love for that to be the norm, but we'll see. If Ajayi keeps getting touches and doing that well against stacked boxes (#1 in the league), I see Tannehill doing very well but not top 6, more like top 10."

    I'm sorry but that's a terrible argument. You single out highlights and ask if he was a difference maker. We had the 2nd to last amount of passing attempts per game. Ajayi carried the offense along with Landry, two record setting players.

    You're playing a game where it's like: oh well Tannehill is better than Manning and Flacco in the regular season. "Yeah, but the postseason is more important." Oh well, you must not like Marino then, huh? "Yeah, but Marino held most QB records." Tannehill doesn't stack up well so you're resorting to BS.

    Of course it's a team game. It's why I don't get why we invested a #8 pick and $77M for a small upgrade at QB.


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    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think he's getting better at leadership..he's smart, and now he has seniority, I think for his personality, that process had to take its course..so he should be able to completely assert himself...
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not sure how you can discount getting others to follow you as a necessary component of leadership, and I say this after having emphasized how nebulous the concept is.

    Let's say you put a guy in a leadership position but that guy is only there because he's got the right connections and has no special leadership abilities. In fact the guy isn't even there most of the time and just pops in occasionally.

    However something interesting happens. Because the guy doesn't even try to be a leader, people are free to make decisions they couldn't make before and many of the things you describe begin to happen. People are more motivated, improve their abilities, solve problems without the "leader" there, etc...

    Not saying this always happens, but it definitely does happen in certain cases (I personally know of one such person - a relative of a really rich, famous and politically active family - who once told me he "doesn't want to have any regrets in life" and so he's basically on vacation half the year.. he's "visited all 7 continents!" lol).

    In such situations do you really want to call such a person a leader? No I think getting people to follow your plan of action has to be a necessary criterion of any definition of leadership. We shouldn't be calling people who just divorce themselves from a situation a "leader" even if the group performs better with them in a leadership position.
     
  16. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol, if you are incapable of understanding what I'm saying, that's on you. It's my fault for coming to the main forum and responding to a pretty ridiculous thread, but I thought maybe I could use some reason and have a real conversation. From some posters, I have. Unfortunately with you I get a repeated opinion and faulty logic without a shred of actual breakdown.

    Matt Moore is a backup QB for the Dolphins. That's been determined by every coach that has been here. The Dolphins new coach, Adam Gase, who is known to be a QB guru has said he took this job in large part because he wanted to coach Tannehill. I guess your knowledge about his QB rating in a handful of games trumps that, though.

    The truth is, if you really believe that Moore has been "pretty damn similar to Tannehill" then you're either not watching the games, or have no idea what you're talking about. Based off of your posts, my conclusion is that you've never actually been around the sport of football, and the latter conclusion is most likely. Moore has moved the ball at times, but he's also been a major liability with his decision making and accuracy issues. You simply cannot contend with a QB like that, and it amazes me that after the crap Miami's had at QB for two decades, that anyone would be content with that.

    I didn't take your post out of context at all. You said some kind of nonsense about stacked boxes (when I'm pretty sure you don't really know what that means based off of the way you used it), and said if Ajayi and Landry keep playing like this you expect him to be in the top 10. So now you're trying to argue that you don't expect Ajayi and Landry to keep playing well? Watch some football. The Dolphins, and Ajayi didn't see some inordinate amount of stacked boxes compared to the rest of the NFL. Teams will occasionally stack the box against good backs. And good backs still produce.

    I singled out two of the best plays any QB in the NFL made. Plays you will never see the Joe Flacco's or Andy Dalton's of the world make. Plays that only guys like Aaron Rodgers make. If you can't recognize them for what they are, I'm really not sure what to tell you. There are obviously other examples, but I'm not going to take the time to find and post all of them. Just because it doesn't suit your argument, doesn't make it a "terrible argument". Does this mean Tannehill is a franchise QB at the level of Rodgers? No. He's still not consistent enough yet (although he was becoming more so before he got hurt). But to say he's never a difference maker is just simply inaccurate.

    I'm not playing any game. I'm pointing out the ridiculousness in your logic. When it suits your argument, stats are most important, but when it doesn't, they're not. You used statistics (well, one statistic over and over again), to compare Tannehill and Moore. When that statistic is used to add Flacco and Manning to the equation, then it's meaningless and only postseason success is what really matters. Then, when a great QB like Marino is brought up, you go back to regular season records. Which is it? You don't get to have it both ways no matter how bad you want to.
     
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  17. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Try asking another way. Like lets say Tannehill is out of the picture for some reason, would people prefer to give the Bengals a first for Andy Dalton or save our first and roll with Moore?
     
  18. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    All anecdotal evidence and attacking the messenger instead of the message. The numbers don't lie. Moore and Tannehill as Dolphins have very similar passer ratings. Moore has been a Dolphin for 6 seasons. You still haven't explained how Tannehill is so much better that he was worth passing on Kuechly and any possible free agents like Miller or Clay.

    You're still talking highlights. I'm talking about whether or not he's a difference maker. When you're second to last in passing attempts per game, you're not a difference maker. Ajayi is. Landry is. Regular game statistics aren't the end all be all. You have to factor in the post season. Some QBs are good in both, or just one. Tannehill is underwhelming in both. You can pretend in your head he's better than Manning and Flacco or that I think Marino isn't great. You also lied by omission with that out of context quote. You're not being honest here or sticking to the point of the thread.


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  19. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure I'm following but I believe you're asking if I'd rather spend a 1st on Dalton or stick with Moore. I'd stick with Moore and would've drafted Kuechly and resigned Miller.

    I'm guessing your point is to show I'm consistent and not just "hating" on Tannehill.


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  20. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    How do you figure Peyton wasn't elite in the playoffs?
     
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  21. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I wasn't really asking you, I was asking the others to test if they are biased or if they really think a QB of Tannehill/Daltons level is so much more valuable than Moore that they would pay a first round pick and an extra $15 million a year. If the answer is no for Dalton then it should also be no for Tannehill.

    Another way of looking at is did the Vikings get good value trading a first for Bradford? Another QB of Dalton and Tannehill's level.

    The Chiefs are another example, they could have gotten Alex Smith help but instead spent a bunch of draft capital on a first round QB.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
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  22. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree. So many QBs are decent but not $15M per year better than Moore. Even Bradford and Dalton have had nearly 100 or 100+ passer rating seasons in their sixth or fifth seasons and they're not worth it. And they've had the same postseason success (none).


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  23. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol, this isn't worth my time anymore. If you're not reading what I am saying or just can't understand it, there really is no point. I've attacked the message many more times than I've questioned the messenger, but both are equally lacking in this thread. If you really took from any of my posts that I feel "Marino isn't great", I really just don't know what to say. I've learned my lesson, though. I'll just stick to the Club threads.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. this is actually a good question. I haven't done a comparable statistical analysis on just playoff performances as I have for regular season stuff so I only have a partial analysis and I admit I'm still going by perception to a good degree.

    But here are a few things I know:

    1) His W-L record in the playoff is not good at 14-13. Only problem here is I haven't adjusted his playoff record for stuff like defense (points scored against).

    2) His drop-off in passer rating from regular season to post-season is around average (~8 points drop-off) for QB's that go to the playoffs often. Of course this doesn't mean he played poorly.. just that he didn't show something beyond the norm.

    3) His variance in passer ratings in the playoffs is really high compared to QB's like Brady that went to the playoffs in similar years. Peyton's standard deviation (square root of variance) is at 30.9 while Brady's is at 23.76. Since their overall averages aren't that different, this means you're more likely to get consistent performance above average in the playoffs with Brady.

    But like I said it's only a partial answer. It's just harder to gather the comparable data for playoffs as for regular season, and you have to constantly adjust not just for year but for sample size so I haven't done the work to really see whether the perception that Peyton was elite only in the regular season is warranted.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
  25. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    There you go taking what I said out of context again. I said if you want to pretend I think Marino isn't great, go ahead. You only brought him up because I said Manning and Flacco had postseason success. Stop quoting what I'm posting if you're gonna misrepresent the message.


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  26. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're right. I apologize. I misread what you wrote. The point still remains, though. I didn't actually think you didn't believe Marino to be great. It was a device to prove a point. I thought that was understood.
     
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  27. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Really this thread should be titled "Evaluating a QB's value" as the heart of the question is less about Tannehill and more about a moneyball scheme to build a team around mediocre QB talent. So the question is whether it is smarter to spend market value on a good QB (yes in today's NFL $15 million+ and/or a first round pick is market value for an average starter) or use those resources on other positions. If you look at the list of superbowl teams in the modern era (let's use 2000 as a cut off), its clear that the winning teams by and large had better than medicore QBs with the two notable exceptions being the 2000 Ravens (Dilfer) and the 2002 Bucs (Johnson). Now the list of losing teams includes a number of sub par QBs but what is interesting is that most were just a flash in the pan. This suggests that the scheme to build around a mediocre QB may result in a superbowl appearance or even a win if the stars align but it will not yield sustained success.
     
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  28. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    It's fine, don't worry about it. Let's just agree to disagree.


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  29. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I would take Eli over Peyton in the playoffs, a lot of playoff exits on poor Peyton games, and not many memorable moments either, his big games weren't in big games for the most part.

    So my vote would be Peyton is not an elite playoff performer, but above avg.
     
  30. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just to be a little contrary. Earlier you said higher variance was good because in aeli and Flacco's cases it meant they were more likely to put together a SB run if they get hot.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah referring to post #204, the argument was that a QB that was consistently above average in the regular season but average in the postseason would get you into the playoffs often but struggle in the playoffs. A QB with higher variance in regular season ratings (but with the same average passer rating) would fail to get into the playoffs as often but more likely have a year where he goes all the way to the SB.

    Here, we're talking about variances WITHIN the playoffs. So once you're in the playoffs you'd rather have the guy that is consistently above average in the playoffs.


    The real critique to my argument is that variances are blind to the order in which the events occur. That is, you get the same variance for a set of numbers regardless of which order those numbers are in. Thus, having larger variance doesn't imply that QB has more 3- or 4-game stretches (if you're the wild card) where he does well. Maybe all the variability is game-by-game variability.

    My response to that critique would be that we simply can't do the proper analysis there because too few QB's play 3 or 4 consecutive games in the playoffs in a given year and we shouldn't just collapse across years.
     
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  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The problem with Peyton was, his variance would be game to game almost. Usually his very worst game all year, would be in the playoffs, and they would lose and get knocked out. That's why looking at stats is good but sometimes, you have to dig deeper.

    This dates back to 1997 with the Volunteers where he was benched in the bowl game. Go look at the games where his teams were knocked out and see how he did. Despite the conventional wisdom, Manning played with a lot of great defenses too. He played with top 8 scoring defenses 8-9 times in his career, a few of them they were #1.

    62, 82, 31, 35, 69, 90, 81 (SB win). After his super bowl he played better in the games they were knocked out (except the superbowl against Seattle of course). In 2014 he posts a 75 and loses to Andrew Luck's colts. And of course a 56 against Carolina they won. Manning would have an average post-season when you just tally up the stats, but his worst game of the year would often come in the playoffs and his team knocked out.

    He has two rings. the first ring, he throws 3 TDs and 7 INTs. The second, well we all know his second one. He depended on a brilliant defense both times (16 ppg the first super bowl) to win both his rings. He is seriously overrated IMO.
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. maybe we can just do a quick visual inspection to see how often Brady vs. Peyton had 3 game stretches in the playoffs where they: 1) played above league regular season average, or 2) played above expected playoff average (let's say it's 8 passer rating points less than regular season).

    You can get league average passer rating history here:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    and Brady's and Peyton's playoff games:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/post/
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/gamelog/post/

    OK.. so Brady had 8 years where he played 3 games in the playoffs (2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2014, 2016). Out of those 8 years he had 2 years (2004 and 2014) where every game was above league regular season average, and he had 4 years (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014) where he was above expected playoff average.

    Peyton had 5 years where he played at least 3 games in the playoffs (2003, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015). Out of those 5 years only in 2009 was he above league regular season and expected playoff average. Furthermore, in 2006 he played 4 consecutive games, so we could theoretically look at the first 3 of those games and the last 3 as 2 different samples but neither is above either regular season or expected playoff average.

    So just by visual inspection Peyton has more trouble stringing 3 consecutive above average games in the playoff together than Brady.
     
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  34. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I'm not sure why you're using "top 8" defenses. In Indy Manning had a top 5 defense one time. In his entire career he had a #1 defense, one time. Out of his entire career he had a defense ranked better than average (better than 16th) 8 times (2 of which happened when he was in Denver and a shell of his former self.) So out of 17 playing seasons he had a better than average defense 8 times. Out of the 9 seasons that Manning had a below average defense he made it to the playoffs 7 times.

    To compare, Brady had a top 5 defense 7 times out of 15 seasons. In 13 out of 15 seasons Brady had a defense ranked better than average. In the 2 seasons that Brady had a defense ranked less than average (Both 17th) he failed to get into the playoffs in one and lost the div. round once.

    In 3 out of Brady's first 6 post season games he failed to post a passer rating better than 76 and yet won 2 Super Bowls. In 17 out of 34 post season games (50%) he failed to post a 90 passer rating or better. The Pats still won 9 of those games or 53%.

    Manning posted a passer rating less than 90 in 16 out of 27 postseason games (59%). His teams won 5 of those games or 31%.

    The Pats won 8 postseason games when Brady posted a passer rating of less than 80 (13 total) 62%.

    Manning's teams won 5 (11 total) 45%.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2017
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  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There you go with Brady in your mouth again. Can't keep him off your tongue can you? WEIRD!!!!!

    The difference between 8th and 5th scoring defenses are usually not that big. The fact remains, those are good defenses. For example, in 2008 the colts had the 7th best scoring defense, at 18 ppg. Their offense scores 17. One and Done.

    2009, 8th scoring defense. 7th scoring offense. Super Bowl. They score 17. He has a chance to tie it, and he throws a pick 6.

    In 2005, his Colts had the 2nd best scoring defense in the league, surrendering 15.4 ppg. They boasted the 2nd highest scoring offense, at 27 ppg. One and done. Offense scores 3 points through 3 quarters and lose 21-18.

    2007 he had the best scoring defense in the league. One and done. He didn't even lose to the Patriots. But the Chargers. He accumulated some good stats, 400 yards, 3 TDs. But two INTs were costly. The second one, at the 3 yard line.

    And if we are talking regular season, since you brought up brady, let's not ignore Manning got to play in a dome for more than half his games which significantly increased his numbers.

    Let's not even discuss the ridiculous talent he's had around him. Edge, Faulk, Harrison, Wayne, Demaryus. Brady did have Moss, for 3 years, and Gronk, for about half the games in a season. His best receiver the pass few years is a midget QB.
     
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  36. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Brady had 17 games of 34 in the playoffs with a rating of 90+, exactly 50%.

    Manning had 10 out of 27 for 37%. For the regular season both were averaging around 10 per season (just eyeballing it) or about 60%.

    Eli had 5 of 12 in the playoffs for 42%, which is probably pretty close to his regular season success (again, eyeballing it).

    Dalton: 0 for 4 (expected).

    Rodgers: 12 of 16 playoff starts with a 90+ rating, which seems pretty incredible.

    Wilson: 8 of 12 for 66% which is slightly better than his regular season average of about 64%
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2017
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Don't forget Kurt Warner. 102.8 playoff average! compared to 93.7 regular season average. Going by your metric.. he had 9 out of 13 = 69% of playoff games with 90+ rating. Of course all ratings are unadjusted meaning guys in the 70's-80's are being undervalued a bit here but it's still impressive.

    If you're willing to include stats before the SB era I'm not sure anyone beats Bart Starr. 104.8 playoff average with 7 out of 10 games 90+ rating... no even better: 6 out of 10 with 100+ rating. Oh, and this was in a day and age (1960's) where the average passer rating was in the mid 60's! (today it's high 80's).

    But I think the most impressive stretch of playoff games ever by a QB is by Joe Montana in 1988-1990. He had 8 consecutive playoff games in three years, all with ratings higher than 100!! with an average rating of 122. He won 2 Super Bowls during that stretch and had the 2nd highest passer rating ever in a SB with 147.56 (highest was Phil Simms with 150.92).
     
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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Whenever anyone says Brady, JD be like:

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    No, you used "8th" because it better fit your agenda.

    That 2007 #1 defense averaged 16 ppg. Against the Chargers they gave up 28 points. Their offense scored 3 points less than their season average, but the defense gave up 12 more points than their average. In 2006 the Pats had the 2nd best defense and lost to the Colts. You really should look more into things.

    And I compared Manning, the QB you were talking about, to Brady. Why? Well, I think it's better than comparing him to Dilfer or Johnson or pretty much any other QB that has played in the 2000's. If I compared him to any other QB you'd also whine. So, I guess for me it's a lose/lose. However, I'm sorry that Brady and Manning are similar in the playoffs. I know you go to bed at night with the thoughts that Brady is the GOAT and no one is close, but you're wrong.

    Sorry I shattered your dreams.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2017
  40. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If I had compared Manning's playoff history with anyone else he would have also cried and asked me why I didn't compare him to Brady. lol
     
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