1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Evaluating Tannehill's Value

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finsfandan, Jun 1, 2017.

  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,361
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    I'll make JD cry some more...lol...

    This is a post I made back in Jan/Feb of 2016:

    Brady:

    2007 AFC Championship: Played horrible throwing for only 154 yards, throwing 3 picks and got bailed out by the defense and playing against an extremely hurt team (Rivers playing on one leg, LT and Gates hurt)

    Super Bowl XLII: With one of the greatest offenses of all-time, could only score 14 points on the biggest stage. Couldn't do squat with pressure in his face the whole game getting sacked 5 times and fumbling.

    2009 Wildcard Playoffs: Threw 3 INTs and lost a fumble. Game was over after the 1st Quarter.

    2010 Divisional Playoffs: After 8 straight weeks off lighting up NFL defenses, was horribly outplayed by Mark Sanchez throwing an INT (after not throwing one in 335 attempts) and getting sacked 5 times against a team he lit up a few weeks earlier.

    2011 AFC Championship: Got outplayed by Joe Flacco and got help by the Ravens choking.

    Super Bowl XLVI: Played horrible in the 2nd half against scoring their last TD.

    2012 AFC Championship: Played absolutely horrible in the second half. Granted, the receivers dropping catches and the defense's poor play didn't help, but he was off the entire 2nd half. Team couldn't score a single point after halftime.

    2013 vs Indy. Brady posts a "clutch-like" 52% comp and 198 yds and a 75 QBR. They win. I wonder why?

    2014: Played well in each post season game.

    2015 Well, we all know how "clutch" he was against Denver.

    How many legendary game-winning drives like "The Catch" or "The Drive" has Brady had? He won so many playoff games early in his career because he was carried by a great defense and probably the best kicker ever.


    Oh yeah....and cheating.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  2. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Keep this post in mind when people say you don't give Brady credit and make excuses for Tannehill. And I get accused of being a hater.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  3. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    The funny thing is if you look back to 2000 (and beyond, actually), the SB Champion QBs are either elite or more like Moore. So I believe it helps my argument about value/Moneyball.

    Brady, Peyton, Wilson, Flacco, Eli, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Warner.

    You can argue Flacco and Eli are closer to Tannehill, but we haven't seen Tannehill in the playoffs yet. Flacco was always good in the playoffs, that I know.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,361
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    lol...Wut? How are posting Brady's playoff performances "not giving him credit" and "making excuses for Tannehill"?

    Some people should find a new hobby. lol
     
  5. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,753
    9,844
    113
    Nov 10, 2010
    I wouldn't say that. Of the QBs on that list Moore compares only with Johnson and Dilfer. The rest are most certainly franchise QBs that their team spent substantial resources acquiring/keeping. For that matter even Dilfer was a first round pick albeit for the Bucs.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  6. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    You're only posting the things you can bash him for and attribute his early success solely to defenses, Vinatieri, Belichick and cheating.

    You don't give him credit for doing enough to win. You cling to Spygate and the drought of rings then Deflategate as if it made a difference. He made the biggest comeback ever in a SB without any cheating you can point to and it eats you up inside.

    Let's be honest. You're envious, but you don't have to tear Brady down to feel better about Tannehill.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  7. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Let's not pretend all franchise quarterback QBs are equal. There's a big difference between those QBs listed and Tannehill, Dalton, Bradford, Smith, etc.

    I don't know what the Bucs and Ravens spent in picks and salary on their QBs but something tells me it wasn't much and they invested elsewhere.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  8. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,753
    9,844
    113
    Nov 10, 2010
    But that's the point. The Bucs and Ravens are the only 2 teams in the last 20 years to win a superbowl without investing in the QB position. Heck in the entire history of the superbowl there are only a handful of teams that won without a top tier QB. So there simple isn't a whole lot of evidence to suggest that building a team without investing in the QB position is a successful strategy.
     
    eltos_lightfoot likes this.
  9. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,361
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    No, I'm posting the things that Brady ball washers never seem to notice.

    His early success was mainly based on defense, AV, and cheating. All FACTS.

    Cheating is cheating. You're OK with that. I'm not. Some people have integrity.

    That post has nothing to do with RT. lol...
     
    Fin D likes this.
  10. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Sure, but you have to get a good return on investment. Those QBs that won rings did a lot of heavy lifting. How many can we point to that are like Tannehill?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  11. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Brady was a game manager because he didn't have to be a superstar to win with those teams. Then he became one and continued to win rings. You can't just focus on what you want to.

    No, I just don't pretend they cheated and won in SBs because of that. This last SB is proof to the contrary. You can't just believe what you want to.

    Yeah, it isn't, so why are you always taking the opportunity to hate on Brady? Just fishing for likes? Does it make you feel better?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  12. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,753
    9,844
    113
    Nov 10, 2010
    Your initial post raised the question of whether we could build a team around Moore using the resources saved from resigning Tannehill. That's an interesting hypothetical but as I have shown that strategy has rarely worked.

    How good a QB Tannehill is or is not is a different topic which has been beat to death in countless other threads.
     
  13. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Or a strategy that's rarely been tried. I don't see anybody trying it today except maybe the current Browns front office. They haven't reached for a QB yet and I like what they've done so far. We'll see what they do in the next five years.

    Unfortunately it's part of the discussion to determine what his value is. If you spent a #8 overall pick and $77M for a small upgrade, perhaps it wasn't worth it.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  14. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,753
    9,844
    113
    Nov 10, 2010
    Its been tried more often than you think. Its just doesn't work out so the teams trying it go unnoticed. Wanny even tried it with Fiedler.
     
  15. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    Oddly enough, the best Dolphins team in the last 25 years didn't even make the playoffs. And what was the biggest reason? Jay Fiedler got hurt.

    Cruel cruel season that was..
     
    VManis and eltos_lightfoot like this.
  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Ray Lucas was very terrible.
     
    VManis and eltos_lightfoot like this.
  17. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    I would appreciate it if you just wouldn't even say his name.

    2k rusher, top flight veteran defense...all wasted.

    Still should've made it however, fluke play @ MN followed by the infamous pass pass pass with the lead @ NE.
     
  18. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I'm not convinced it's been tried enough to compare to reaching for great QBs. So many teams draft QBs high even when it's not warranted.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  19. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

    11,035
    4,419
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Teams draft high for a QB because it's rare to find a starting QB in the mid-to-late rounds.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  20. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    It was more than "pass, pass, pass" Also a kick out of bounds, a fumbled kick return, and letting them come with an easy 40 yard drive.

    That loss was so bad I almost stopped watching football.

    Still, I think Miami would have been a lot better if they had a better quarterback than Fiedler. At least try. Wanny did not even try. Fiedler just did not have the arm and was too injury prone.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Most teams draft QBs low and end up cutting them because they are not good enough. That is the reason why they are drafted low.
     
    VManis and Fin D like this.
  22. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,753
    9,844
    113
    Nov 10, 2010

    Teams also draft QBs in later rounds but those guys rarely amount to anything.
     
  23. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    How many teams actually end up starting QBs drafted in rounds 4-7? Not that I believe in targeting certain positions in certain rounds, I'm just curious as it relates to the discussion.

    From what I've seen, QBs drafted late are usually intended as replacements for more expensive backups.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I do not know the answer, however it is rare. There are the Romo's, Prescott's, Brady's, however, there are a bunch of quarterbacks that we do not remember the names of because they were cut.

    They are usually intended as replacements for more expensive backups because that is how good they generally are. A few will go beyond and turn out to be good.

    Basically it is like telling someone that casino's are the best way to plan for retirement. For a few people, it will work out amazingly, for most, they end up broke.
     
    Pauly, Silverphin and danmarino like this.
  25. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    No, I get that, and I'm not saying we should draft one at rounds 4-7. I believe in drafting BPA. I just believe too many teams reach on QBs and it's glaringly obvious a lot of the time.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Here's an article by someone who apparently was interested in the same thing. Looks at all likely starting QB's for the 2017 season and shows where they were drafted:
    http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/20...rting-nfl-quarterback-draft-trade-free-agency

    Graph at the bottom (the "Per-Round Analysis") shows 7 of 32 projected starting QB's for the 2017 season were drafted in rounds 4-7 or undrafted.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  27. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Out of curiosity, I decided to go with 3-7+UFA and that number jumps up to 12.

    I'd be curious to see what the "bust rate" and "start rate" is for other positions because it seems like QBs are the most reached for position in all of sports.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Once again, DM proving that nobody mentions Brady more than him. It's an unhealthy obsession. Nobody even mentioned his name, but the discussion of Peyton Manning, and only Manning, happens. And all of a sudden you can't resist the urge to bring him up. They have therapists for that. You should get it checked out.

    Back to the Colts and Chargers, 2007.

    End of the 2nd half, Colts move to the chargers 35 yard line. Peyton throws an INT. Probably 3pts there with one of the great kickers. Cromartie actually returns it to the end zone but it's called back for a penalty.

    In the 3rd quarter, they move to the 4 yard line of the chargers. Pick. Weddle.

    Down 28-24, they get to the chargers 7 yard line with just minutes left. 3 incompletions by Manning to turn the ball over on downs. From the 7, down 4. Pretty big moment, don't you think? Yeah.

    The defense gets a stop, and they get the ball again. The Colts turned it over on downs, again. But you wouldn't know this because all you did was look at a box score (although you dig real deep on the Brady performances ... really deep).

    Manning is a great choke artist. He has NEVER carried a team to a Superbowl win. Flacco has. Eli has. Big Ben has. Drew Brees has. The difference between him and Marino is pure luck. He's so overrated it's ridiculous. I don't even have him in the top 5. I'd take Montana and Young over him all day.

    Don't forget Peyton Manning LOVES to throw INTs. Loves it. His career 2.7% is bad for post-2004. Most of the QB greats you see in the 80s and 90s had high INT% like that, ~3%. But now the elites are around 2 or below. Rodgers for example, 1.5 for his career. You could argue he played part of his career before 2004 but he was still throwing high INTs after. High INTs are why I never placed Brees in the top category.

    His superbowl stats:

    6.54 ypa, 3 TDs, 5 INTs, 77 rating.

    That's right. in 4 superbowls, the "greatest" QB some say, threw 3 TDs. In 4 of the biggest games in his life. Russell Wilson threw 4 TDs in two Superbowls, only one infamous TD, and a 9.86 ypa.

    Discuss any of that without saying Brady.
     
    Steve-Mo and finsfandan like this.
  29. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    What was the point of all this? He has 5 rings. We're asking why Manning's team didn't do better than they did with that many playoff appearances.

    This is the second time this week in a thread nobody mentioned him, you (or FIN D) bring him up.

    Can you even discuss QBs without bringing up Brady? Try it. For the love of god and sake of everyone here, try it.

    How many forum days can you go without bringing up Brady. Let's start counting today.

    Bottom line: Peyton Manning was carried to his two rings by his defense. Both times.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2017
    finsfandan likes this.
  30. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,361
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Of course. Manning won a Super Bowl with the 23rd ranked defense in the NFL. Facts seem to elude you. lol
     
  31. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    i would be thrilled if Doughty played or Moore, I have lots of confidence in both of them.
     
  32. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,361
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    kim-jong-un-clapping-youre-joke-was-so-funny-i-forgot-to-laugh.jpg
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Brr.
    Brrrrrr.
    ...
    Brrrrrrrraaaaaa..
    Brrp!
    ...
    Brrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaa..aaaa..
    Ahhhh..

    ((leaves rustling))

    BRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAADDDDYYY!!!!
     
  34. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

    18,044
    19,678
    113
    Dec 8, 2007
    Well away from here
    Well this thread certainly has taken a turn towards the "you're ****ing joking right" side.
     
    cbrad likes this.
  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Bob Sanders, All pro in 2005, and 2007, only played 4 regular season games in 2006. When he came back their defense was dominant, only allowing 73 rush ypg game in the playoffs, after allowing the leagues worst in the regular season.

    Bob Sanders' return to their defense is something I didn't even have to look up because anyone who even watched the NFL that year, remembers their defense after he came back from injury from the first playoff game. 16 ppg allowed. Would have been good for 4th if in the regular season.

    These are things you'd know if you went deeper than a box score or stat sheet.

    Peyton 3 TDs, 7 INts. Against KC 1 td 3 INT. Not a typo. 3 INTs. 23-8.

    Against Baltimore. 0 TDs. 2 INTS. 15-6. All field goals. 39 rating. Both of those games were carried by the defense. 1 td and 5 INTS through two first games.
     
    Steve-Mo likes this.
  36. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    The problem with that approach is that you need to rely on your starting 11 defense not getting injured, and your OL remaining healthy and your bell cow RB remaining healthy.

    You can add the 1985 Bears to your list too. All of those teams were one and done when it came to SB rings.
    Any 'defensive dynasty' you care to mention had an offense piloted by high performing QBs.
    No Name Phins had Griese
    Steel Curtain Steelers had Bradshaw (who had horrible regular season stats and amazing playoff stats)
    Bill Parcells Giants had Phil Simms.
    Current Seahawks only got to SBs after they drafted Wilson. And while his salary is low he is a case of good luck, not good management.
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    And if they did not stumble onto Russel Wilson in the 3rd round, their quarterback search was dismal failure after dismal failure.
     
  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    It also is important to look at the quality of those QBs.
    Tyrod Taylor. Starter quality (but the Bills FO seem less convinced than I am)
    Tom Brady. In discussion for GOAT
    Tom Savage. Placeholder until the 2018 draft
    Trevor Siemien. Does the job Mark Sanchez did for the 2009 Jets - cripples a great D.
    Kirk Cousins. Has played close to probowl level for the last 2 years.
    Dak Prescott. Lucky find, but looks like will be a long time quality starter.
    Brian Hoyer. Placeholder for the 2018 draft.

    So 3 of those 7 are horrible QBs who really should be backups at best.
    There are 18 first round QBs. The only ones I would say are definitely not starter material are Jared Goff and Blake Bortles. Even then Bortles showed enough 2 seasons ago to justify giving him another shot.
     
    cuchulainn likes this.
  39. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Basically you need to rely on your team instead of mostly your QB.

    I only went back to the year 2000. There's more examples of SB winning teams that didn't waste a ton of resources into the QB spot.

    I didn't bring up that term and didn't say the two were mutually exclusive.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  40. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Whilst it is possible, you then need to compare it to teams that did invest into QBs. Investing in QBs is a more reliable way to make the playoffs and win the superbowl
     

Share This Page