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How good will Tannehill be in 2017?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by zatrex99, Jun 11, 2017.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    just for info.. this statement is true during the SB era, but during all of NFL history it's not.

    Cleveland Browns were #1 in points allowed 5 years in a row from 1953-1957. But that was a different era.
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cle/
     
  2. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Exactly! And the Pats defense has been ranked top 10 in 14 of the last 16 seasons.

    Generational....
     
  3. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Pats since 2000, Steelers of the '70's, Dallas of '90's... to name a few.
     
  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I lived in Iwakuni for about 2 years. Loved every minute of it.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Worth pointing out that there seems to be a discrepancy between perception and stats here. Obviously most would have never thought Seattle was #1 in points allowed 4 years in a row. But consider some of the other teams you listed and compare them to the 2004-2011 Steelers which nobody lists:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

    First the 1970's Steel Curtain. Let's say we pick the best 8 year period from 1972-1979. Average rank was 4.6 and they were #1 twice and #2 three times.

    Now compare to the 8 year period from 2004-2011. Steelers' average rank was 4.75, they were #1 four times and #2 once.

    Compare that to New England's defense in the Belichick era. Best 8 year period you find is from 2003-2010. Average rank is 5.9 and they were #1 one time and #2 twice.
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/

    Dallas's best 8 year period is 1992-1998 and you get an average rank of 4.6 with no 1st place finishes but one 2nd place.
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/

    So if we're just comparing defenses by points allowed, 2004-2011 Steelers' defense should be placed with all the ones you listed, and if anything NE is the odd one out because all the others averaged rank 4.6-4.8 while NE is at 5.9.

    But who lists the Steelers' 2004-2011 defense?? There's a discrepancy between perception and stats here and you can't explain this by looking at number of SB wins either because 2004-2011 Steelers won 2 SB's, same as New England during their 8-year period.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2017
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  6. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I was the one who brought in Dilfer to the discussion. Mainly as a way of pointing out that it is a TEAM sport and it takes a team to win not singly a great QB. If it only came down to QB play Dan would have won multiple rings while he was in Miami.
     
  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    You as you both asked a question you knew an answer and then contributed nothing.
     
  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Those are great defenses. Never lead the NFL in points 4 years in a row. Dallas of the 90s were never #1.
     
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  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is a great point!
    Just to point out that in the last 6 years, which the Seahawks defense have been one of the best of all time, they have been 7th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, which is an average of 2.33
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yup.. so we'll see how well they do in the next 2 years. If the sum of their ranks over 2 years is ~23, then they're similar to the others over an 8 year period. But if they can manage keep that sum way down, say they're at worst 7th each of the next two years.. then over an 8 year period that will be unprecedented (already unprecedented over a 6 year period in the SB era).
     
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  11. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy

    I found the very interesting. Not sure what it means.



    For those without Twitter access - It shows that Brady has a passer rating of 103.4 when Gronk plays and 88.6 when Gronk sits out.
     
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Have you compared any defenses over a 15 year period? (I haven't) However, I'd bet that the 2000's Pats would most likely equal or beat any other great defense(s) over that period of time. Not to mention going to 7 SB's during that period and winning 5.

    Now, I DO think that cheating has played a roll in everything they've done since 2001, but some here don't believe that and thus should consider their defenses over the last 15 years, overall, to maybe be the greatest and at least in running for top 3-5. Which, IMO, makes them a "generational" defense.
     
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  13. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Gronk, like cheating, makes Brady....Brady. ;)
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. I just wrote a short program to check that. I had to manually enter in the teams and only checked 10 of them (most likely suspects) but it looks like San Fransisco from 1983-1997 wins out with an average rank of 4.27. Miami came in 2nd from 1970-1984 at an average rank of 4.93.

    NE was way down the list. The best they did is the last 15 years with an average rank of 7.8.
     
  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Who was the closest to the Pats over their 15 year time span?
     
  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And I knew that San Fran had some great defenses, but I would have never guessed they were #1 overall. I guess that lends some credence to those of us who claim Montana was top 10 all time, but had a great team around him.

    Also, too bad Marino wasn't a decade earlier or their defensive prowess wasn't a decade later! lol
     
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  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Thanks for all your hard work!
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You mean last 15 years? Pittsburgh with an average rank of 8.13.
     
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  19. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Impressive stat crunching. Thanks.
     
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  20. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    cbrad, what about comparing performance relative to peers, era, etc.

    Baltimore ranked 1, but was at 10 ppg while other teams ranked 1, but at 16 ppg etc.
     
  21. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    You also need to consider strength of offenses played.
     
  22. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    What a NERD! :butthead:
     
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  23. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  24. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    The New England Patriots, Fornicating Goats since 2001
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK.. some surprising results when you adjust for average points per game in that year. First of all, the BEST defense in NFL history (SB era) when you adjust by points per game in that year is..

    1969 Minnesota Vikings

    and a VERY close second: 1975 LA Rams.

    When adjusted to 2016 numbers, the 1969 Minnesota Vikings (who gave up 9.5 ppg unadjusted) gave up 10.32 ppg. The LA Rams' (gave up 9.64 ppg unadjusted) gave up 10.63 adjusted. Remember though that these teams did that with a 14 game season. Raven's 10.3 unadjusted ppg is the record for a 16 game season.

    No other teams gave up less than 11 adjusted. 4 teams' adjusted ppg lie between 11-12. Best on that list (barely) is that famous 2000 Ravens team with 11.31 adjusted, next best is 1968 Baltimore Colts with 11.39 adjusted, next is 1971 Vikings with 11.61 adjusted and finally the 1976 Steelers with 11.65 adjusted.

    Oh, and sorry to say but recent teams are really low on the adjusted lists. Other than the 2002 Bucs whose adjusted value is 12.81, ALL teams from 2001 are adjusted over 13.75 and the best any Seahawks team did in the last 6 years is in 2013 with an adjusted 14.01.

    As far as the best defense over a 15 year stretch, Dolphins narrowly edge out San Fransisco. The average adjusted ppg for the Dolphins from 1970-1984 is 17.85 while San Fransisco from 1983-1997 gave up an average of 18.14 adjusted.
     
  26. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    [​IMG][
     
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  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    GO DOLPHINS!
     
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  28. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    So over the past 15 years the Pats have led the league with Pittsburgh being the closest to them?
     
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  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    By average ranking yes. However, if you do the same thing I did in post #225 and calculate adjusted points allowed, you get the following:

    NE last 15 years adjusted average points allowed per game = 19.35
    Pittsburgh last 15 years adjusted average points allowed per game = 19.26

    lol.. so it depends on which measure you want to use, average rank or average adjusted points allowed. By average rank NE has been #1, by average points allowed it's Pittsburgh by 0.09 points per game LOL.
     
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  30. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    In 2012 and 2013 the Dolphins had a top 10 scoring defense, and we were the only team to miss the playoffs having a top 10 scoring D both seasons. So I don't think its fair to say defense or coaching were things Tannehill had to overcome for those seasons.

    Audibles
    2012 week 3 vs the Jets: Loss in OT. Sherman is being grilled on making such a stupid playcall in OT going deep when we were in fieldgoal position for the win. His response: not what I called, the QB changed the play
    2013 week 7 vs the Bills: Infamous sack/strip/fumble as we were trying to seal the win. Again Sherman is getting grilled for calling a pass and again he said the QB changed the play.

    And at some point Sherman was asked about the sacks to which he responded that some of that was on him because they scripted the first series which didn't allow the QB to get out of a few sacks.

    In 2014 Hartline was asked about audibles after a game and his response was he can audible sometimes and sometimes he can't. Jordan Cameron said it was blown out of proportion. Lazor said he had more audible authority than any QB he coached.

    In poker there is a term called leveling. Level one: you bet your good hands. Level two: you get a sense your opponent is folding too easily to your bets so you bluff. Level three: your opponent gets the sense you are bluffing too often so he re-raises, etc, etc. This type of "leveling" occurs in football between offenses and defenses. Ideally you want the QB to be the one on offense to decide if they are bluffing or playing true but I don't think Tannehill is good at this aspect of the game. I think you can fool him over and over and dictate his audible which dictates where the ball goes. To counter this and keep some semblance of unpredictability the coach has to force plays to be run as called once in a while.

    And lastly Tannehill has been absolved of blame too quickly when Gase stripped back the audibling "only because the rest of the offensive players weren't up to speed." He put Tannehill in charge. If the coach can see the other players can't handle it then why can't Tannehill see that also? That would never happen under Peyton Manning. First of all because Manning would get in their faces and make sure it was right in practice. And second of all because Manning wouldn't be stupid enough to audible in the first place if didn't think the team could execute it.

    So the audible thing was not only not a hindrance he had to overcome but he probably had more power than a lot of experienced QBs even as a rookie. The ridiculous thing is he was probably hurt more by having too much power as a rookie than having too little under Lazor.

    Replace Tannehill with Rodgers and I bet we're 30-18 instead of 23-25. And I wouldn't say thats because Rodgers can overcome 4 of the worst things ever, I would say its because everything has been closer to average than the worst ever and Rodgers adds 2-3 wins to an average 8-8 team. Whereas I would expect a raw Tannehill to be ~23-25 when paired with average.
     
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  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    When comparing RT to Manning and Rodgers, arguably two of the top 3 QB's to ever play the game, and all you get is a little less than 1.5 more wins per season, then RT is better than I thought. lol
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If roy_miami is saying we'd be 30-18 instead of 23-25, then that means it's over a 3 year period because that's 48 games.

    7/3 = 2.3 extra wins per season.
     
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  33. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    IMO, three have been zero quarterbacks drafted after Tannehill that I would decline a trade for Rodgers.

    Rodgers is a cut above the rest.
     
  34. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    lol..I wasn't thinking about the season totals. I assumed that he was giving us RT's career wins and losses and didn't bother to notice that 23+25 doesn't equal 80...lol. So I divided by 5 an dnot 3.... Anyhow, I'm not sure why he'd use only RT's last 3 seasons?
     
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  35. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I don't think there has been a QB drafted since the late 1990's that I'd take over Rodgers.... In fact, I may only take a couple of QB's over Rodgers in the history of the NFL.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    First 3 seasons (only from 2012-2014 was Tannehill 23-25).

    And I agree with you and Dol-Fan Dupree about Rodgers. He does need a bit more longevity though but he's going in the record books as one of the greatest if he keeps this up a few more years.
     
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  37. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Rodgers is the only QB that I'll admit was better than Dan, I think Rodgers is the GOAT.
     
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  38. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I'm not sure if Rodgers is the ONLY QB better than Dan, but I think when it's all said and done he will be the GOAT.
     
  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's a prototype. Brady and Manning are cerebral, some of the best. But Rodgers, is a physical beast to go with it. On top of that, his improvisation? I mean, you can't build a better model.
     
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