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Shocking Danny stat

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Jul 6, 2017.

  1. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Dan Marino threw his 300th TD pass when he had 169 INT's. QB's better than that with INT's were:
    Peyton 152
    Brees 154
    Brady 115
    Rivers 146
    Ben 160
    Rodgers has 72 but is 3 td's away from 300

    To me it shows how imbalanced we all knew the offense was but also his gunslinger mentality
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I've always loved the gunslingers in the league. While a turnover is devastating for a guy like Pennington who marches down the field 6 yards at a time, it didn't mean nearly as much for a guy like Marino or Favre that could find the end zone on any given play. Just let it rip....and who cares if they shut you down a few times. You can let it rip again a few plays later and get that momentum right back.
     
  3. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    growing up and watching him, he did have some head-scratching picks though
     
  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Dan's picks were due to the same reason Favre and other great gunslingers got picks.....they weren't students of the game. The vast majority of gunslingers aren't cerebral at all. They are playing sandlot. It is a testament to their innate ability but it is also an indictment of their personalities as they could have done even more had they tried from the thinking end of the position.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, Manning is probably one of the biggest students of the game and he had his gunslinger moments as well. I think you're right on one aspect that QB's like that got out of their own heads and just went into attack mode when they had to, but I wouldn't call it a bad thing. For instance, the famous fake spike against the Jets...that was about as cerebral as it gets. Yet it was also Marino being that gunslinger and willing to risk the whole game on a crazy bullet pass.
     
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  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Manning had gunslinger moments, but that doesn't make him a gunslinger QB.

    The fake spike wasn't Marino's idea. The story is that Kosar invented the play and the team had practiced it all week. It was then Kosar that called for it.
     
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  7. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    What exactly was the risk? Worse case they spike the ball after the snap. Sheesh , people go back and watch the game


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Kosar wasn't the OC. Dan himself has told the story that the fake spike was Kosar's idea.
     
  9. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    You are splitting hairs. Stevens and Kosar worked closely. Im not even sure why I am replying. im sure you will be destroyed by your post


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I haven't buried anything. What am I saying is actually true, while you still think there's no difference between a back up QB and offensive coordinator.

    Let the record reflect also, that you just started attacking me for no reason in multiple posts....because I had an opinion. Isn't that what everyone says I do to everyone else?
     
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  11. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Everyone who is better than Dan on this list is part of a different era with different rules.
     
  12. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Didn't want to be the one to point that out. The most insane TD/INT ratios are after 2004 ish
     
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  13. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Rules are so different, it's hard to even think about where marino would be with those rules today


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's been reported many different ways over the years and the story had changed a few times depending on who you ask. I personally asked Marino directly after his Thursday radio show at Weston Country Club 2 or 3 weeks afterwards, and he said that Kosar had come up with the idea a few weeks prior to that game in practice. They did not actually practice it though and it wasn't a called play- it just unfolded that way. As Marino walked up to the line, his coordinator said to spike the football if the defense got set and Marino remembered Kosar's idea...which he thought would never work when it was said. But in the moment he figured what the heck, if someone doesn't get open then I'll spike it anyway. And the rest is history.

    Now, you could say that Marino was just saying that to a group of teenagers to sound cool, and you may be right. I was 23 or 24 back then but we always brought at least one young neighborhood kid to boost our chances of Marino signing autographs. Half the time he came out staggering from a few too many free cocktails, and I honestly can't remember if he was drunk that night or not. He usually wouldn't hang out and talk to us if he was sober though....so he had a few at least. But if I had to bet, I'd guess that it was his idea in the spur of the moment.
     
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  15. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    If it was not practiced somehow the WR knew about it.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I've heard Marino, Kosar, Westhoff, Shula, et all tell it differently.

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-dolphins-unforgettable-victory-new-york-jets

    Marino: I was more involved in trying to get our team into position in hopes of having a chance to tie the game or win the game. I give Bernie Kosar credit. He brought the spike play to us from Cleveland, and he actually mentioned in my ear, "Think about the clock play, think about the clock play." It was perfect and we did it.

    Mike Westhoff, Dolphins special teams coach: We always referred to that as Bernie's play. He came up with it.

    Shula: Bernie's play? Who told you that, Bernie? It was a play we practiced during the week.

    Dellenbach: We worked on it on a weekly basis. Watching film, we saw some of their guys weren't really doing a whole lot when they knew the ball was going to be spiked, so we talked about this could be the week we do this.
     
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  17. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Marino was never a cerebral QB. The biggest complaint from defensive coordinators when Marino was tearing up the league is that they'd call the perfect defense and Marino would complete the pass anyways to a guy that was perfectly covered. He was instinctive and accurate and obviously he had that great release and pocket movement, but he wasn't a student of the game. That was a knock on him going back to Pitt. He was never studious. IMO he got pretty good at his pre-snap reads with experience, but he was never great post-snap. He once told me that he never tried to sell his P/A fakes b/c felt he felt he needed the extra time. From speaking with him on several occassions my impression was that he wasn't the quickest thinker.

    Kosar, on the other hand, was arguably one of the smartest QBs to ever play the game. I saw a stat once at UM where over the whole season he made the correct read something above 90% of the time. Kosar left much to be desired physically and I couldn't tell you if he was smart at anything else, but when it came to playing QB, he was a genius. And I would have thought that most knew he was responsible for suggesting that fake spike play.
     
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  18. eltos_lightfoot

    eltos_lightfoot Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I'm trying to figure out why someone would think that Marino was a cerebral QB. LOL. He wasn't. He was so good he felt he didn't have to be. And he was mostly right.
     
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  19. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Next we'll hear he could run like the wind too...


    ...and personally stitched every Isotoner he sold.



    ....I heard he cooks all the Nutrisystem meals sent out.


    ....I can't believe he wrote and directed Ace Ventura but was kind enough to let Jim Carrey star in it.



    ....I heard he can beat anyone at Connect Four in just 3 moves.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, like I said...I heard it from the horse's mouth, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's the full story. It's just the way Marino remembered it from his own perspective at that moment.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's true- I never even thought about that. He had to signal it somehow and that means you have an actual signal planned out for it. So they practiced it at least once.
     
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  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    And this is a complete story told by numerous parties involved who aren't probably drunk at the time.
     
  23. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    you can't have this both ways. Kosar was smart because he made correct reads, but then you distinguish between pre-snap and post snap? Everyone raves about Brady's and Manning's ability to pre-snap read. Marino, according to you, was the same way, yet he wasn't cerebral? You want to know how I Know Marino was smart and that he did have influence on plays? Look at the 4th and 4 play during the first game in 1994 after the Achilles against the Pats. He himself said he changed the play at the line and called the bomb to Fryar
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Sidenote, what the heck did I miss in this thread?? LOL
     
  25. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Fin F says Danny wasnt cerebral. He was a renegade on the field. He over rules plays and just used his precision to break records

    Then he says Brady and Manning were cerebral because they can read pre snap, which he says Danny could, but then backdoored it like always, saying he was not good post snap. And there you have it, another post ruined by Fin F


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He's saying you can win by resignation. Just like in chess where you don't actually have to play the move that kills the king (rarely happens in competitive play) if the opponent resigns before that.
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The fourth move is then implied.
     
  28. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    This. I don't know how you can compare QB play/statistics before and after the rule changes in the 00s, most notably, the enforcement of contact against receivers running across the middle of the field. That rule change opened up a huge part of the field to QBs, changing it from a risky play to a highly efficient one.

    There are other arguments for why comparing them across eras is impossible, but this was the most influential, I think.
     
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  29. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We know for sure Marino didn't communicate the play though. Why? Because the Dolphins lineman just stood there. The only two people who knew about the spike was Marino and Mark Ingram.



    I never knew that was RB Ingram's dad until now. Pretty cool. But Bernie did call it. Well, he's not the OC so he didn't call it, but he told Danny who decided to do it.
     
  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Only one person has even broke 40 TDs in a year except Dan (Kurt Warner). Rule Change in 2004. Now everyone is breaking it.
     
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  31. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Throwing for 4,000 yards in a season is common.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You can definitely compare across eras as long as you adjust the stats in one year to those of another. For example, average passer rating in 1984 was 73.2 while in 2016 it was 87.6. So for passer rating divide the 1984 number by 73.8 and multiply the result by 87.6 to get an adjusted passer rating (to the year 2016).

    Marino's 108.9 rating in 1984 becomes 130.3 in 2016 rating, and that's probably about right given how unbelievable that year was relative to what others in that year did.

    In any case, you can adjust every stat across eras if you have the historical data.
     
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  33. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate statistics as much as anyone, but you don't think that the nature of the game is so fundamentally changed that a comparison of the numbers like that winds up telling the wrong story?
     
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  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    If you don't connect four, you don't win. Your opponent may concede, but only because no matter what he does, your fourth move will win. After your third move, the game isn't over. Your opponent can still make a move. If the game were over after your third move, then he wouldn't be able to make a move, as he wouldn't have a turn, because the game would be over.

    And I don't think the scenario posited is even remotely likely. With only three pieces, you'd have to be on the bottom row going across, and I can't imagine ever a 5 year old wouldn't block one end preventing you from having a space on either end to win on.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I agree with you. I don't think adjusting statistics truly shows what the rule changes did. The routes being thrown to routinely today weren't back then. Receivers would have been killed.
     
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  36. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing I don't like about just looking at averages is, you are averaging the absolute worst QBs in the league. Rule changes I would think, would benefit the better QBs more so than that crappy ones. Has anyone ever had a 45/6 TD ratio? 50/8?

    Looking at the averages has its place, but also look at the records being broken left and right.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Depends on which question you're trying to answer. But if you're just comparing stats across eras, then what the specific rule change was doesn't matter because you're seeing the EFFECT of the rule change.

    To be clear, what adjustments like the one I described allow you to do is to compare how relatively good a QB was across eras. Raw stats can't do that. What the adjustment I described does NOT allow you to do is to assume that a QB that was in the top 10 percentile in one era would automatically be in the top 10 percentile in another era. That you don't know.

    But saying that getting a 108.9 rating in 1984 is similarly impressive as getting a 130.3 rating today is something you can say and that means you can compare how impressive Marino was in his era (measured by passer rating) to a QB today.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The standard deviation of starting QB passer rating from the 1980's has remained very steady till the present day, around 10-12 passer rating points. That means that whatever rule changes have occurred have just been moving that distribution upwards without changing the spread. So at least since 1980 or so it's provably not true that lesser (starting) QB's are affected any more or less than the better ones, measured by passer rating at least (haven't looked at TD/INT ratio).

    However.. that doesn't mean that whoever is "better" in the 1980's will be "better" in the 2010's. It just means that the overall distribution has similar spread.

    Interestingly that spread did change from pre-1978 to post-1978. So the ONE rule change that measurably affected better QB's differently than worse QB's was the one in 1978 where illegal contact was now 5 yards and offensive holding was interpreted differently (allowing OL guys to open their hands on pass plays). The standard deviation went from the 15-17 range pre-1978 to the smaller 10-12 post-1978. That means the rule change was an equalizer of sorts.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Dude.. that's provably false. If your opponent concedes you win without finishing the game. You play an opponent, not the board, so "win" or "lose" is completely decided if your opponent concedes.

    As to whether the scenario is likely or not, that's another story.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
  40. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    The legend I have heard was that Bernie was screaming "run it at the rookie, run it at the rookie".

    dont know how true it is, but Ive always heard/assumed it was a Bernie called play.
     

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