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Tannehill Vs Taylor?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jul 15, 2017.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    A little more insight into how the Dolphins are viewed...



    The comments though...
     
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    In two seasons Taylor has put up a 89.7 and a 99.4 QBR as a starter, with TD/INT ratios of 20/6 and 17/6 across those two seasons and an average 62.7 completion rate with 3k passing yards per season (both years were just a touch over 3k). Before that he mainly sat the bench in Baltimore so I'll compare just those two seasons.

    Tannehill's last two seasons were an 88.7 and a 93.5 QBR, 24/12 and 19/12, about a 64.5% completion rate and 3,500 yards...although he threw for 4,208 in '15 and 2,995 last year.

    On paper, Taylor is a slightly better quarterback due to the TD/turnover ratio. I think we all know that Tannehill is a heck of a lot more dynamic...but you can also argue that we have much better receivers than the Bills. So I think it's a closer comparison than we'd like to admit as Miami fans.
     
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  3. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think that this comparison interesting, but not for the reasons many may think. I think both of these QBs are highly underrated. I think we all know how much people on this board love to hate on RT, and I think the same can be said for the Bills dislike for Taylor.

    I don't think that Taylor is ever going to be a Drew Brees or Aaron Rogers, but I think that as we speak, he is about as good as Alex Smith. I have witnessed his mobility give the Dolphins defense a difficult time first hand.

    I also think that between RT and Taylor, there is another similar component. I think both teams run/should run their teams through their running backs. Honestly, when you see low passing yardage totals, I don't particularly see that as a problem.

    Generally speaking, I have a distaste for statistics. I think they are quite misleading. I think that the most overrated stat is passing touchdowns (and its effect on QB rating). On a previous post, I wrote about how I think we should use the J-Train and Damien Williams to hammer the ball in the end zone from the redzone as our most effective means of scoring. Suppose Gase buys into this strategy, and it is effective. What would be the problem if RT only threw 15 TDs all season, but our offense was highly potent? Nothing. Who cares? The goal is to score TDs; it doesn't matter which player is scoring the TDs. I also think that the Bills have the same thing going for them. Shady is a fantastic RB. Why wouldn't they try and pound it in the end zone with him? Last year, when they had Gillislee, they had a great 1-2 combo.

    Stats are easy to quote, but they often neglect to acknowledge the nuances of the game. It only makes sense that QBs on teams with elite RBs would have fewer TDs than one would expect.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've never been a stats guy either because they can outright lie- how many times have we seen a QB with a 120+ rating for a single game get beat 44-17? It does not tell the real story.

    The only reason I brought up the stats is because of the turnovers and total attempts/yards- Taylor threw six picks in each of the last two seasons. I don't care who you are or what your team composition is on offense, that's impressive. And for that reason alone, I think most would say that he's the better QB over Tannehill...even though it's just a small portion of the story.
     
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  5. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    You can add fumbles to the TO list, RT has 19 and TT has 13, and RT played in fewer games and runs less.

    Stats can be misleading, but we're talking about 2 full seasons of stats, so that is painting a pretty accurate picture, and TT is part of a sub par team.
     
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  6. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I tend to agree about stats being relied on far too much. But I also see Taylor as an underrated QB. I personally would still prefer Tannehill. I think he's even more underrated, often by people who apply team stats to QBs. I feel Tannehill is a more consistent, accurate passer. I also feel that Tannehill in the right system has a better chance of becoming Aaron Rodgers than Taylor does. The take away was nailed by the initial post. It shows how Tannehill and Taylor are viewed league wide. IMO that reflects how most people rate QBs and it's largely on stats, wins and flash plays or highlights.
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tannehill played in fewer games? Taylor only played in 14 games over his first 4 seasons. Tannehill's stats are over 77 games, Taylor's over 43 games. Tannehill is almost double the games.
     
  8. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    It's not impressive when you're not winning football games. Tyrods inaccurate, bottom half of the league in completion percentage. (Tannehill was top five last year). Tyrod doesn't take chances and if the bills running game doesnt take over, they don't win.

    Just going off volume alone, tyrods most prolific season is still less than Tannehills worst in terms of yards (excluding last year due to Tannys injury)

    Jmo but I actually don't see a very good qb in tyrod. He's not terrible but as a passer leaves much to be desired.
     
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  9. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    We're just looking at the last 2 years.
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but Taylor threw for about 200 more yards last season with 2 less TD's and 6 less picks than Tannehill. It's a pretty close comparison on paper with the INT's standing out the most. HOWEVER, Tannehill put up those numbers in 12 1/2 games...I just remembered that part. If he wasn't hurt and kept pace, he would have ended up around 4k yards, 25 TD's and 15 picks. That gives Tannehill a 6 TD lead and around 900 extra yards in the air over Taylor.

    I do agree with you though that it's hard to compare a winning QB to a losing one. Miami also won three additional games on late 4th quarter drives through the air (since that's how we won almost every single one of our games, it seems). To me, that's the kind of thing that really proves a QB's worth- what can he do with 2 minutes on the clock and down by 4? I'd take that one stat over all the others combined.
     
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  11. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    The Rams game last year. Wasn't our best game. Wasn't Tannys best game. But what Tannys did in the last 5 minutes, back to back to drives capped off with a beautiful outside corner throw to Parker, we have yet to see Taylor do anything like that.

    The closest was against the Seahawks last year where Tyrod, on 4th down with time expiring, missed his wr by a mile in the endzone. I think, even in that moment, tyrod was so afraid to throw a pick that he didn't give his guy a chance.
     
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  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I would take Ryan...however I agree it is not a snap "yes"....have to think about it a little.

    Tyrod is not a bad QB by any means.
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I will save you the suspense. NEITHER will EVER be on that level. Aaron Rodgers is as complete of a QB this game has ever seen.
     
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  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I love Rodgers' game, but if you'd asked most anybody in GB if Rodgers would ever be as good as Favre after his first 4 seasons you would have got the same 'never' answer. I find your opinion here as valid as their's was.
     
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  15. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    That really is a piss poor comparison in trying to salvage an even poorer comparison of either of those guy's getting to the level of Aaron Rodgers.

    I mean, why even take a conversation about a Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Tannehill and insert the name Rodgers?? You certainly aren't talking apples to apples here.
     
  16. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Why is 4 relevant? RT has played for 5 years.

    After Rodgers 1st 5 years starting, the only people left that felt Favre was better, had the last name Farvre, and after the 1st 5 years of AR's career, which would be after his 1st 2 years starting, everyone agreed that it was the right move to let BF go, because AR was clearly a special player.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Let me just add one thing about comparing Tannehill and Taylor's stats the last 2 years. Statistical analysis depends on sample size and if you take the passer ratings for the 29 games Tannehill and Taylor each started in the last 2 years and perform what's called a t-test that estimates the probability the two sets of 29 passer ratings come from the same QB, you find that with just about 50% probability they come from the same QB.

    ..meaning we're exactly at the stage right now where the two sets of 29 passer ratings are equally likely to have come from the same QB or from different QB's. In other words, we need more data before comparing.

    And while we're on the subject of stats being misleading, I think most of the problem here comes from people not understanding that sample size affects the level of confidence, or the confidence interval (a technical term), of any statistic.

    You can't just say a single data point of 120 passer rating that didn't fit what you saw means statistics are misleading. The confidence interval associated with a single data point is undefined in statistics (or if you wish it's infinite), meaning statistical analysis can give you NO estimate of the range of passer ratings that are say 95% likely to contain the "true" passer rating (one that's not misleading) given a single data point. As sample size increases that range grows smaller and smaller, meaning you have more knowledge about where the "true" statistic lies.

    That doesn't mean statistics can't be misleading. It just means that most of the comments I see here are due NOT to the statistic being misleading but due to people not understanding the effect of sample size. Statistics are misleading when you assume they tell you one type of information when they're actually giving you a different type of information (e.g. the mean of a skewed distribution will be misleading if you think it's the midpoint of that distribution).
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    those are just the Pass stats.

    Taylor has almost 1300 yards rushing with 11 tds over the past two years

    Ryan has 300 yards rushing with 2 tds over that same span.

    1,000 yards and 9 tds is a significant discrepancy/part of the game from a production standpoint to not leave out..

    Im pretty sure i was on an island when I said predraft that taylor would be better than mike vick and would be an nfl starter.
     
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  19. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    5 years in a near ideal situation. Tannehill has had one year in a decent situation. IMO people who have decided what Tannehill can't be are idiots.
     
  20. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Hey you brought this on yourself you could've said top tier quarterback, top-five quarterback a pro bowler an All Pro...

    But you said in a 28-year-old quarterback will wake up and have the same skills, of maybe the best all-around quarterback this game has ever seen.

    "Idiot" or whatever defense mechanism you want to throw out....you made a horrible comparison for the sake of comparing.


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  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Actually I didn't bring up Rodgers. He was brought up in the post I was responding to. It would have made no sense to change the reference. And you're the one who then interjected your opinion. My response wasn't a defense mechanism. It was my opinion and one I've been consistent on. I believe that people do a poor job of differentiating between circumstances and individual QB abilities. I don't agree that Tannehill has to wake up. Those skills have been apparent but most lack the vision to see it.
     
  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He only included two seasons for both since Taylor's only started two seasons. Those stats are over two seasons.
     
  23. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm going to go out on a limb and say Tannehill has 0% chance of becoming Aaron Rodgers.

    Since Tyrod is also at 0%, I really don't see how Tannehill has a better chance :D
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It also happens to be Tannehill's worst two seasons for fumbles.
     
  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Exactly.

    Much better ways to profess your love for a QB then to just go ahead and set the bar as high as it can get.

    Aaron Rodgers......pshh


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  26. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Actually that would be '14 and '15, where the total would be 20, but it's splitting hairs, 3 season 9 fumbles, 2 seasons 10 fumbles, he quite literally fumbles 9 or 10 times a year, lol, so no peaks or valleys as of yet.

    It's on the high side, RT has been top 10 in each of his 5 years, but it's not a huge problem in and of itself.
     
  27. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Even the phrasing was off, "if RT was in the right system", well, if he has to be in the right system, then right off the bat he can't be AR, because AR would be AR in any system you want to put him in.
     
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  28. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Also, Ryan Tannehill IS in the right system. I challenge anyone to show me a QB surrounded by a better coach/skill player combo in football.

    This is also part of the reason I see a huge year for 17 and our offense.


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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    New England.
     
  30. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree now, I haven't really felt that way in the past though. This year is going to prove a lot. He needs to start fast, my confidence in him is going to get shaky pretty quick if I have to wait 5 games for him to start showing high level of play.
     
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  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ajayi


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  32. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yep. Certainly was not the case the previous 4 seasons.

    However he has been a traditionally slow starter, that needs to change effective September.


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  33. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, it's not like he said, let's use these two because they're the worst seasons fumbling wise for Tanny. It's the only two seasons Tyrod has started.

    And if Tanny's latest two seasons is his worst for fumbling you'd hope it was just an anomaly.
     
  34. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    RT has been very consistent with his TO's, fum= 9, 9, 10, 10, 9, INT= 13, 17, 12, 12, 12.
     
  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That last year is actually worse if you factor in games played and pass attempts
     
  36. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    I've always been a Tyrod fan even before the phin's scouted him heavily..... I'm just glad he got his shot and is proving himself. I certainly wouldn't trade Tannehill for him, though I'm sure the Bills would take that.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I was looking at fumbles while rushing the ball...
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    New England has a far better, at this point, coach/ skill player combo around Brady.
     
  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Far better is a huge reach. We have no idea how Cooks will fit in, Gronk is hit or miss to even be on the field. Then you have Edelman.

    Either way, my point remains. Ryan's situation couldn't get much more ideal than what he has. He is being set up to succeed for once....so lets see him do it.
     
  40. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Naw, it's far better. Who do we have? We have a unit with a lot of potential. But only Landry has performed at a top level. And he's a shorter average depth of target guy. Stills is probably my favorite guy on the team, but even then he's not reached his potential on this team. Parker, all potential. Julius Thomas, misses a lot of games.

    What makes Cooks dangerous is he's not just a speed/deep guy like one considers Stills. He's also very dangerous in the short/medium area. As long as he can grasp their complex offense with the many reads he's dangerous. Without him or Gronk they already had a top offense. 3rd in PPG without Brady for 4 games, without Gronk for half, without Cooks. The only change really, is Bennett for Allen.

    They lost Blount but added Gillislee. And losing Blount wasn't much of a loss at 3.9 ypc. Gillislee in limited time in Buffalo has looked good. At least good enough to do 3.9.

    We will see with Tannehill. I think Aqua4ever pointed out Gase laid out some simple safe gameplans for Tanny. We're gonna try and turn up the volume this year, and hopefully Tanny is able to grasp and run it.
     
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