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In-Depth, Two Part Study on Jarvis Landry's Value

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Jul 28, 2017.

  1. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Part One: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/jarvis-landrys-value-part-i

    Part Two: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/jarvis-landrys-value-part-ii

    I suggest you all read both parts, its pretty interesting and well thought out. But, if you're lazy, here's the conclusion:

    Conclusion
    In an era where passing is at an all-time high, a record like most catches in a player's first three seasons is almost meaningless, and sure to have an early expiration date. If that becomes a bargaining chip in Landry's contract negotiations, then it's not a good one, especially with the way he has accumulated his stats compared to former college teammate Odell Beckham. Beckham is the type of receiver who deserves a monster second contract based on his overall value and play-making ability.

    If the Dolphins are set on Landry's role as the slot receiver, then they would be wise to offer him a deal that's in the $11 million range, or "Keenan Allen money." Paying Landry like a top-flight, do-everything receiver would be a mistake, as would continuing to feature him as the No. 1 receiver in such a limited capacity.

    For the Dolphins to take the next step offensively, Parker is the Miami receiver who needs to make the biggest strides, which wouldn't be uncommon to see in a talented player's third season. As long as Landry is far and away the leading receiver in Miami’s offense, it is unlikely that this passing game will rise above mediocrity. If Gase is the head coach we think he can be, then he should realize that a formula of less Landry, more Parker, and more Jay Ajayi runs is the right one for Miami to continue having success in 2017 and beyond.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't fully agree with the sentiments because I think it misses the whole point on why Landry is so valuable. Stills and Parker should be our home run threats. Ajayi is the workhorse that opens up those home runs in the first place by keeping the LB's in check. Having someone like Landry who can provide a completely different gear is a massive asset because he's not a prototypical RB or WR- he's a unique problem for defenses that should already have their hands full with the other names mentioned.

    In other words, Landry is not a typical slot receiver or a usual #1 guy...he doesn't fit the mold and that's what makes him so incredibly valuable. In my personal opinion, he's a running back with great agility that lines up in the slot position. He can run people over. He can make people miss. None of that is normal for a WR on a weekly basis. So folks need to stop trying to figure out who to compare him to and just accept that he's a unique talent with unique skills that deserves a unique contract amount.

    With that said, I'd expect him to be somewhere in the 8-12 million per year range; but I wouldn't be shocked to see him resign for $6M or $15M. We are paying for unique intangibles and that's impossible to put a fair market value on.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2017
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  3. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    This is what many of us have been saying, he's good, but he's not that good, he's not a #1 WR, regardless of how many targets/catches, he's a release valve WR, perhaps the best in the NFL, but still, that's what he is.

    Also, the way he plays worries me down the road, I think he's going to break down early because he plays the position like a RB, he's taken quite a beating in his first 3 years.
     
  4. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agree with that conclusion. I really don't care for their metrics Dvoa dyar etc

    But the depth of target is what I really harp on. He gets a lot of Yac due to how close to the LOS he's targeted. This improved in year 3 to his credit.

    I think Landry is really good but let's not overrate him.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2017
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  5. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Landry reminds me of a few other WR. All of whom were not "#1" receivers but were still top talent, especially on their teams.

    Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward are the three that come to mind. The term that describes them is lethality, DB's don't want to tackle them. Or be blocked by them. And none of those three played special teams or took handoffs.

    If Tavon Austin is making 11 mil a yr, Landry should easily command 12-13. If not from us this year, from 10 other teams next year.
     
  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can't use a clearly bad contract as a comparison.
     
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  7. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I get what you're saying, Landry is tough like these guys, but the comparison kind of ends there except that they did all play STs and took hand offs, but they were all boundary WRs, and they were #1 WRs, at least Q and Ward, I can't remember about Mason, and they also scored more, and that is the big kicker to me, scoring is paramount if you want to get paid.

    TA shouldn't be making that money, that was a big mistake imo.
     
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  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Yes you can cause his agent will.
     
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  9. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mean, you can and get laughed at by a good GM who will point out it was given by a bad GM.

    But then again Tbomb himself has given out terrible contracts too.
     
  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm not going to click on the link, because FO is generally garbage with make believe stats. However, I do totally agree with the conclusion. Landry deserves to be paid like Keenan Allen or Doug Baldwin, with a slight uptick due to the increase in the cap. But thats all. Thats good money. 11-12 mil a season, probably with a lot guaranteed. But he's not Jones or Green, and he's not his buddy Odell.

    Right now, Landry isn't as physical, or a game changer like Ward or Boldin in their primes. Boldin had a season where he had 1400 yards in 14 games, and other where he had over 1000 in 12. He could and would absolutely take over multiple ball games a season and put his team on his back, forcing his will on the defense. Landry will never be Boldin.

    Ward, in his prime, scored 37 TDs in a four year period, despite playing with Tommy Maddox, Kordell Stewart and a very young Big Ben as his QBs. Now, I have also used Ward as an example of what Landry might become, due to their physical size and styles, and the fact that Hines didn't totally break out until his 5th year in the league. But Jarvis isn't there yet. Hopefully, he will.

    He's also a team leader, and seemingly a good guy, though a hot head. However, if he's dead set on getting paid like a top guy, then oh well, I guess we'll move on with Parker and Stills, and find another slot guy.
     
  11. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Boldin was #2 behind Fitzgerald
    Mason #2 behind Kevin Dyson
    Ward was probably #1 til the Wisenhunt years

    They all averaged about 6-7 TDs a year

    Mason played quite a bit on ST actually, Ward and Boldin not so much and none of them ran the ball more tha 10-12 times a year.

    More than just the physical comparison or just numbers I see a similarity in that none of these guys were considered what you folks call #1 WR. But if you ask opposing DC's who they were missing sleep trying to figure out how to stop...

    That's our boy, and with some help from the rest of the offense and hopefully never having to mess w/ WR screens that even yeti fans can see coming from last Tuesday, He'll score more.

    And I still haven't heard him say, other than generic "I want to be the best yada yada" where he is expecting or demanding to be the highest paid or like a top 5 WR. Heard lots of others put those words in his mouth, never him.
     
  12. SocaCasualuk

    SocaCasualuk Active Member

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    1st off I love Jarvis, his passion, toughness and skill is a joy to watch. I appreciate the stats say he isn't a number 1 WR and that our record is better when we target him less, but stats don't show the times he runs over people for that extra yard, or the number of people he makes miss with his freakishly quick feet.
    His play also, on many occasions, ignites his teammates and lifts them to another level, such as the rams touchdown last year, cardinals massive YAC play and against the Pats where he ran over Hightower(?) to score.
    Those are the skills and attributes I pay good money to watch the game for and get my butt of my seat. Hell the way he plays it's like he loves the team and wants to win as much as me!
    So, while he isn't a prototype #1 WR, and probably won't get paid like one, I know that he is our #1 and we should cherish him while he is here and do what it takes to secure his future.
    Pay the man.
     
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  13. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I don't care much for FOs individual stats, as they often throw out some oddly assessments. I do like their system for team analysis. Having said that I think the most valuable thing in their assessment of Landry is looking at his performance in WR screens.

    Much of FO's dislike for Landry comes from the fact he gets targeted a lot for WR screens (24 times last season). WR screens, according to their numbers, are generally inefficient and Landry is seeing too many of them.

    We saw in year 1 of Lazor that the WR screen was effective for 2 or 3 games then opponents started scheming to cover them. There is no good reason for any receiver to be getting 1.5 WR screens a game. The team should only be throwing one every 2 or3 games because it is only effective when it is unexpected.
     
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  14. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Landry may line up in the slot, but he is Miami's #1 target. Unless proven otherwise, he is the one closest to 100 catches and 1,000 yards. Parker and Stills are big play guys but until they put up the stats, Landry is 1. Landry needed more TD's to end the debate. To me Landry brings a total package similar to the best WRs in the league. The TDs are a byproduct of Miami having a revamped run game And also a lack of passing TDs (points) a game. If Miami can score more, period, Landry should (and could have) benefited from this in prior seasons. The number one WRs like Julio, AB and OBJ all are in well developed offenses. Should Landry pay the price for a past anemic offense? Because that is the issue, right? Miami should be able to score more per game. They should be close to 30. Let's see who benefits from the increase


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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The argument could be very well made that Miami's offense was anemic because Landry was the focus, and he lacks the physical tools to truly be a number 1 receiver.

    I love Landry, but, again, if he's your number 1, then your offense is in trouble.
     
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  16. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    It will be interesting what his numbers are w Thomas and Parker. Good post btw resnor


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  17. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    We're all big Landry fans, we all value the same things about him, I don't have to into them, we all know them by heart.

    Traditionally, the premise is that a #1 WR is the WR that draws the #1 CB, but more "real world" it's the #1 and #2 WR's, draw the #1 and #2 CB's.

    Traditionally the slot is where you put WR's that don't match up well vs CB #1's and #2's, this is the case for Landry, he would be less effective vs boundary CB's.

    The #1 WR has to be effective vs CB #1's and #2s, that is the primary job of a #1 WR, beat the best CB's on the other team, this is the reason I don't consider Landry a #1 WR, he may be the best slot WR in the league, but slot's are slot's, not #1's, imho.
     
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  18. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    When AB beat us on the two long plays, when was he in the slot


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  19. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    That's the key word. Traditionally. NFL offenses have evolved. Todays NFL throws the ball between the numbers 65% to 35% outside the numbers. Where does the money position come from in that style Offense? Slot WR and TE, with a little to the RB.

    If you run a Traditional Set, ie 3 WR, TE 2 RB formation, 2 WR are targeted 35% of the time and 1 WR is targeted, sharing with TE and RB ( About 50% 25% and 25% usually, 50-30-20 sometimes) 65% of the plays, which WR is the #1?
     
  20. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    It's about the attention you merit by the other team that dictates #1 WR, Dirty brought up AB working from the slot, he also gets it done vs #1 CB's, where he plays most of the time.

    Landry is very productive, catch wise, from where he plays, but until he is drawing #1 CB's he can't really be considered a #1WR.
     
  21. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    What is ironic (I Think), just from a pure numbers view, a slot could be the best WR in the league based on matchups. Then if you bring the #1 corner inside, the offense now opens up on the outside


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  22. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Well we all here debating about something Landry has not even said. We also thought we would lose Stills and he ended maybe taking less money. Also Miami may have some chess moves to make on other personnel to free up money. Miami knows they have the franchise tag in their pocket.


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