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If cutler has big year?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by pumpdogs, Aug 19, 2017.

  1. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    What do you think the dolphins would do next year if cutler had 30-10 td ratio and leads them to a playoff win?Of course if cutler says he wants to comeback.
     
  2. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    I think at that point he would want about the same money Ryan Tannehill would make, and then you have to go with the younger player who is capable of roughly the same performance, with there being little or no difference in the impact on the salary cap.
     
  3. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    They would also have to look at how the team responds to Cutler as a leader compared to Tannehill. Either way, it starts to get interesting next year. Tannehill's contract has basically made it impossible to let him go up to now, but in 2018 you save over 15 million if you cut him. Even easier in the following 2 years.
     
  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That's the REAL question...

    Is Cutler a one year mercenary, coming to Miami to help out his old coach or is he looking at Miami as a second chance to have a successful NFL career?

    Now, the following is a lot of "IF's" but...

    IF he is indeed looking at Miami as a second chance, then he better put up impressive numbers and not only impressive number, but wins as well. Cutler will have to show that he, not Tannehill is the X Factor to lead Miami to the next level.

    Now IF Cutler is that X Factor and depending on Tannehill's recovery, Tannehill's days in Miami could be numbered however...

    IF Cutler's performance this year is equal to, if not worse, then don't expect to see Cutler back next year. Miami has too much invested in Tannehill financially to relegate Tannehill to a backup position and I seriously doubt Cutler would ride shotgun.

    And IF Cutler is just a one year mercenary, then all of this is moot.

    As I said, a lot of IFs.
     
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  5. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Well if he has a playoff win that would tell me the team has responded to him as a leader.Tannehill (I'm not saying he wouldn't have if he didn't get hurt)has not led them to a playoff appearance to date.
     
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  6. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    If cutler has a big year then you explore tannehills trade value and draft a quarterback. Allen from Wyoming or Darnold from USC are the top quarterbacks and theyre both better than any prospect from this past draft.
     
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  7. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If Cutler has a big enough year that we explore trading Tannehill, I hardly believe we will be in any kind of position to draft either one of those QBs
     
  8. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    What would be more likely is the Jets tank the season, get the 1st pick and take Darnold. Then the Bills with all the picks they have accumulated, trade a bunch to move up to 2nd overall and take Allen. That would suck.
     
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  9. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ryan would be coming off knee surgery which is always a little risky.
     
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  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If Cutler plays at that level, then they obviously will keep him as the starter and find draft a QB early.
     
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  11. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I hope we draft or trade for a stud young QB to groom no matter what happens this season.

    I don't want Tannehill, Cutler, or Moore in our future plans.
     
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  12. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    The problem with that is that the team would be drafting in the back third of the first round, and the only QB of the eight selected there since 2004 to succeed is Aaron Rodgers. The jury is still out on Teddy Bridgewater, and the other six are definite busts, either out of the league or backups.
     
  13. Walter

    Walter Well-Known Member

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    If Cutler has a good year and actually gets us to the playoffs, well, from all Dolphin forums I've been reading for the last 20+ years 98% will be on the Cutler hallelujah train. Expecting even greater heights the following.....who knows maybe true maybe second year crash and burn and potentially have a shot at that high first rd position. (But I doubt that happens)

    The other 2% will still be waiting for that other Dan Marino....good luck

    Gase is really going to have to be that super exceptional team builder and find that diamond in the ruff everywhere but the high first round of the Draft.......
    Gase possibly being that true QB whisperer may actually give us that extra shot...
     
  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Then people would give the current QB too much credit and the past QB too much blame. Reality is that this team is improving under Gase. The defense could/should be considerably better and that alone should lead to more wins. The OL depth is better and the skill positions are better. I believe that Tannehill is the better QB, but Cutler in this system is a very good fit. I'm expecting/hoping he has a very good year. I think he could very easily have his best statistical year ever.
     
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  15. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Or maybe they find Kirk Cousins in the second round


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  16. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    As one would expect, the second round is even worse, where only two QBs (Andy Dalton and David Carr) of the 15 drafted since 2004 have been successful.
     
  17. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Damn right. Never stop searching until you have an elite QB.
     
  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Well what is the alternative?
     
  19. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    There are basically two ways to win in the league: with an elite QB, and with an average or better one and an elite defense.

    The problem with continually searching for the elite QB is that you may end up with a well below-average one, and then you stand little or no chance of competing at a high level, regardless of how good your defense is.

    If you build long-term around the average QB, however, you at least stand a chance of amassing the requisite talent around him to compete at a high level.

    This is again why Cutler should be replaced by Tannehill, even if he plays at Tannehill's level. At least with Tannehill you have a chance at building around him long-term, due to his age. And I've posted above the likelihood of obtaining a better QB in the early rounds of the draft, which is slim.
     
  20. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    It's only 1 pick every draft until you "think" you've got that QB. One pick never won a Super Bowl, unless it was a QB.
     
  21. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Tannehill will need to take a pay cut to stay in Miami, that is almost a certainty. I think he owes it to an organization that has been so patient with him.
     
  22. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    That would depend on what you mean by "win." Is winning a perennial contender that has a legit chance to win the SB every season, or a team capable of making a run if all the stars align? Even the perennial contenders with elite QBs don't win very often, I would guesstimate you have about a 1 in 10 chance in that situation. In the other situation, an elite team around a mediocre QB is probably more like 1 in 30. And thats if you happen build an elite team, which is improbable in its own right.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah recent SB history (past 10 years at least) shows that almost all the time the SB winner has a QB that is either generally considered elite or played that way in the playoffs. It's no surprise the QB position is so highly valued (just look at how much teams give up trying to draft that next great QB).

    So even if Cutler does well I think you still have to try to draft that next great QB with an early round pick.
     
  24. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    By win I meant Super Bowl, and pertaining to the second post above, in the instances in which that didn't happen, the winning team had one of the league's best pass defenses, thereby limiting the effectiveness of the opposing QB.

    And yes, the chances of winning a Super Bowl with an average QB are relatively poor, but the chances of winning one with a poor QB are near zero, and again, you see from the posts I made above the likelihood of getting an elite one in the back end of the first round, or the second round.

    In essence any coach who jettisons an average QB in the hopes of getting an elite one is playing with fire with his job. I don't think you'll find many who will take that risk. They'd rather have a good chance of simply making the playoffs with the average QB, keeping their job, and trying to build around that QB to become something more than just a playoff team. This is about what we're seeing with Gase right now.
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Which pick? If it's the first that would get you fired as GM.

    You need blue chip players at more than just QB to win a lot.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    In the scenario I'm talking about there is no jettisoning of an average QB. It's all preconditioned on Cutler playing well.

    Point is, regardless of whether you keep Cutler or Tannehill, we need to try to find that next great QB with a high round pick. It's only one pick every few years that you need to spend (have to evaluate what you have first) so I don't think it's a bad strategy. And putting together an elite defense will take a lot more investment than that so it's not really detracting much from building the rest of the team.
     
  27. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    And when we get to the third round (I posted about rounds one and two above), we're talking about just one QB (Russell Wilson) of the 16 drafted since 2004 whom you could call better than average.

    In the fourth round we have Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins of the 14 drafted in that round since 2004, while players at any position on the field selected in that round have a relatively meager chance of becoming long-term starters in the league. So I could get on board with drafting a QB in the fourth round every year, until an elite one is obtained in some way or another.
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think people are overlooking how stacked our offense is right now- I am confident that Matt Moore could get us to the 2nd round of the playoffs this season or better. If our defense takes the strides it is expected to and holds opponents to that league average of 22, I don't see too many teams that can beat us if we have a competent QB under center....which we definitely have in Moore, Tannehill or Cutler.

    It's a shame RT won't get this year to prove himself once and for all but I think it's a unique situation that will go against the history books- I don't think Cutler sticks around more than two seasons regardless of what happens. And I think this organization is just too high on RT to let one year change that- regardless if we're SB champs or if it's a 6-10 year.
     
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  29. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    Interestingly enough, even when a QB is drafted number-one overall since 2004, he stands only about a 10% chance (1 in 9) of becoming what we might call "elite." Cam Newton is the only such pick since 2004 who can occupy that status right now in my opinion.

    If we expand that back to the third overall pick, we incorporate six more QBs, with only Matt Ryan's entering the "elite" picture. We're now at 2 for 15 (13%).

    If we expand that back to the tenth overall pick, we incorporate five more QBs, with only Philip Rivers's meeting the criterion (15%).
     
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  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing is, RT is no spring chicken. What's his age when he comes back? And you hope he isn't set back another year. The good thing is, QBs come back from acl's fairly well compared to other positions.

    But I'm trying to think of the last athletic qb that had a knee surgery and hit the ground running. Not Brady, Palmer, Flacco etc.
     
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  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Even elite QB's not named Rodgers or Manning can win without an elite defense.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Does it have to be a QB? I'm thinking of Adrian Peterson who had his best season ever in 2012 after an acl injury 9 months before the season. He ended up just a tad shy of breaking the all-time record for single-season rushing yards that year.
     
  33. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    You pose a really strong question that has more working parts than you may realize. Suppose Cutler appears to be an obvious upgrade over RT, what kinda contract would you feel comfortable giving him? I think that anyone that advocates sticking with Jay needs to offer a realistic contract proposal keeping in mind the types of deals that Glennon and Bradford received. My guess is that if he had a strong enough season that he truly supplanted RT, $20~ mil per year would seem to be at market value. How many years and how much guaranteed? My guess would be 3 years/$57 mil/$35 guaranteed.

    The next can of worms that signing Cutler would open is the backup position. Matt Moore is a free agent. This situation is complicated too. First of all, he may feel disrespected and want to leave. Further complicating the Matt Moore situation is his strong play in relief of RT. My guess is that Moore has proven that he deserves a premium backup salary. My guess - $4~ mil per season.

    The next question is, "Is quarterback now a need?" Odds are, if Cutler has a great year, and we are picking late. Do we use a first round pick on a QB prospect and give him time to develop while in the mean time get no value on the field from our first round pick? Do we use a middle pick on a rougher prospect with a much higher chance of not panning out eventually causing us to use another pick on QB in the future? Do we simply roll with Cutler + Vet (potentially Moore) and put the future on the back burner? Also remember free agency occurs before the draft, so a decision on Moore must be made prior to the draft. We cannot simply say, "Draft a QB in the first, and he will be our backup?" We really don't know who will be available when we draft.

    I think extending Cutler requires a plan. I'm not saying that it can't or shouldn't be done, but a plan is needed if we choose to make Cutler the face of our franchise.
     
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  34. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    If we think we've got our Elite QB it doesn't matter what round. You just do it. Once we get him, groom him and draft the other positions.
     
  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm talking trends. Not outliers cbrad. Maybe take a stat 101 course??

    Jk!!
     
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  36. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Its what the Eagles have essentially done. Personally I prefer their QB situation to every mediocre QB situation. Will he be fired if Wentz doesn't become a great QB? Of course. But unless Gase turns out to be an elite coach I don't see him lasting much longer than Pederson anyway. And if Wentz does become great then Pederson will be there for a long time.
     
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  37. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    And that is the counterargument, that mediocrity at QB can make a franchise stagnate at the average level, as the team neither contends at a high level nor drafts at a high enough position to become significantly more competitive.

    The argument there is that it's better to have a poor QB, stay up near the top of the draft as a byproduct of that, and try to obtain the elite QB who can springboard the team to a much higher level.

    This isn't quite "tanking," but it's similar.
     
  38. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    If Cutler has a big year, we won't be in a position to draft either of those guys.
     
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