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Here's What's Wrong With Cutler...Give Me A Minute...Wait I Know There Has To Be Something...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Rickysabeast, Aug 8, 2017.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    People in general tend to overweight recent events, or things that currently influence them, even when asked to rate/rank things in a historical context. Most of those current events/people they rank high tend to later either be forgotten or just become another statistic (Aikman).

    With Tannehill I think it's that well-known human bias that first impressions tend to matter more. Luck was (rightfully I think) hyped up as one of the greatest can't-miss prospects from college. Those first impressions still haven't been completely overturned. With Tannehill.. he didn't prove he's one of the best QB's in the league but he certainly got far less credit for not-too-dissimilar performance from Luck.
     
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  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    This is one of the only forums on the planet where you'll find out Tanny and Cutler couldn've been one of the greats, but Tom Brady is not nor is he clutch.

    Powerful imaginations in here that's for sure. :chuckle:
     
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  3. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And the only place where you'll find so much hyperbole and lies in order to make believe that someone has said something they never did.

    I sure would like to see the posts where people said RT and cutler could have been "one of the greats". Lol

    Not only is a player being "clutch" subjective, but the entire idea of clutch is argued by people a lot smarter than you and me.
     
  4. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Or that only Tannehill could have survived Philbin and Sherman but Wilson and Brady couldn't.
     
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think its an interesting thought, how successful would Wilson have been under a coach who didn't support him, and wouldn't let him use his legs?
     
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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    We've all seen what happens to Brady whenever Brady gets sacked a lot. He plays worse than RT has.

    If Wilson was allowed to run he would have fared better, but if he had been chained to the pocket, like RT was, I doubt he would have done any better than RT.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Statistically speaking that's not true as you can see in the plot below where you have the mean adjusted (to 2016) passer ratings for Brady, Tannehill and Cutler as a function of sacks. Oh.. amazing that Cutler actually had a 9 sack game!!

    Also shows our OL just needs to keep it to 5 or fewer sacks with Cutler because he's so steady LOL!

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2017
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  8. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    If he wouldn't let him use his legs then how did he accrue 200+ rushing yards in each of his seasons under Philbin? In fact his rushing yards and ypa went down without Philbin. This narrative makes zero sense, especially since Philbin himself praised him for using his legs after the Oakland win saying something like 'its what QBs need to do to have success in the league today.'
     
  9. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    There is also this:
    http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports...ll-rises-for-dolphins/zq1TxX2DGs5MaMqPylfjaJ/
     
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  10. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I should have been more clear and written pressured instead of sacked.

    https://www.google.com/amp/patriots...-tom-brady-more-than-any-nfl-quarterback/amp/
     
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  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    This is kind of misleading. He averaged about 40 rushes per season with and after Philbo. 2014 he had 59 rushes but that's the only outlier and totally within his norm. It's pretty common knowledge that Philbo handcuffed RT in nearly every aspect of his play.
     
  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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  13. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    "Its common knowledge" only because people keep regurgitating it. So if he wasn't allowed to use his legs then why was it happening?
     
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Yeah, nothing ever happens when you're not allowed to do something.

    That's why there's no speeding, for example.......
     
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  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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  16. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Neither of those articles say anything about not being allowed to run.

    If he's doing it anyway then stop acting like it effected his game. But its not true because it makes as little sense as saying Suh wasn't allowed to sack the QB.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just a caution when looking up and quoting rushing stats, whether it's from pro-football-reference or any other source. Those rushing attempts include kneel downs!

    For example, look at all rushing attempts for Tannehill in 2014 and there are 56 of them:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=yLmNg

    But included are 13 kneel downs and 2 fumbles that he recovered. So really there were 41 rushing attempts in 2014. Same problem is encountered with all QB's so it's really hard to tell what the league average is unless you search for all rushing plays and count yourself.
     
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  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So speeding isn't allowed yet people do it and ALWAYS do it ALL the time? No of course not.

    So we're going to ignore all the articles and insider info that tells us Philbin & Co. wanted Thill to do everything he could to be a pocket QB including running as little as possible.....all because you, roy_miami, just don't think that's true, without evidence and what obviously must have been a conspiracy?

    Seems legit....
     
  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I stated in my first reply that he was handcuffed by Philbin and that it was common knowledge. You said it was only because people falsely kept repeating it. I showed you where players claimed he was being handcuffed. And without knowing the exact specifics I have to go with RT's entire playing repertoire was "handcuffed" which included running.

    Another factor that makes me believe this is watching him play in college vs. his NFL style. He was much more hesitant and tentative in nearly all aspects of his play under Philbin.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2017
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  20. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    It makes no sense. The speeding analogy makes no sense. It makes no sense the coaches, the same ones that were using the read option, would say you have to stay in the pocket. And Tannehill left the pocket, to the tune of about 50 times per season, we have proof.
     
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  21. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I replied to a post saying "he was never allowed to run." You responded saying that was common knowledge. Now you're moving the goalpost with the general "handcuffed" umbrella under Philbin.
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It makes plenty of sense.

    You said the coaching staff didn't tell him not to run because sometimes he ran. I pointed out that we're told not to speed, yet that doesn't stop people from speeding. That means just because something is discouraged or even illegal, it doesn't mean people stop doing it.

    You are thinking in the unrealistic terms of black and white. You're doing that, because it is the only way you can try and justify your Thill hate. You ignore player accounts that Thill was shackled by Philbin and Lazor, you ignore the evidence before and after those guys....all because you have some irrational dislike of Thill. I suspect it is because, like many fans, you must find a single scapegoat to focus your frustrations on. Phlibin is gone, so Thill is the target, after all, great QBs can win SBs, slay dragons, cure cancer and solve world hunger, and they do all of this on their own. Thill has not even cured the cold, let alone cancer or win a SB singlehandedly, so he must be the problem. Black and white.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2017
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not only was he told not to run, but he wasn't supported by Philbin. In fact, Philbin actually was undermining him. So, if your head coach is undermining you, are you going to be comfortable going against his directives?
     
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  24. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    There's a problem with that though, as guys who have a tendency to choke feel the pressure more, and conversely, clutch guys feel it less.

    The on paper pressure is the same though, 1 loss sends you home as a loser, and that's real pressure, however each individual will weigh that differently in their own head, so to some it will feel like a crushing weight, and to others it feels like it's their time to shine, and for many, it's a mixed bag.

    However, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, choke cannot exist without clutch, and Dan has said he believes in choke, so therefor he must believe in clutch.
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Not true.

    As I wrote earlier, "clutch" is typically defined as playing better than usual under stressful situations. As if some players can will themselves to throw a football through a basketball hoop from 100 yards away when under pressure.

    If you define "clutch" as playing as well as you usually do under any circumstance then I suggest that ALL NFL starters are "clutch" or they wouldn't be NFL starters.

    Claiming that choke can't exist without clutch is nonsense. A person can definitely feel the pressure more than another and thus play worse than they normally do. These are people who usually don't make it to, or don't last long at, the NFL level. However, a person can't play better than their physical and mental limitations unless you believe in magic.

    Basically, average NFL players play average ALL of the time. Great NFL players play great ALL of the time.

    (In before I get someone showing me how some great player had a bad game. Yes, ALL players have bad games from time to time.)
     
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  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Let's define...."slack" in terms of player effort.

    Slack - means a player is not giving 100% effort by not playing to a 100% of their ability.

    I think we can all agree that's a pretty good definition of slack in terms of effort. I think we can also agree that being slack, is a bad trait and therefore undesirable.

    So what does "clutch" mean? There's numerous ideas about what clutch means, but the only one that is A) possible and B) generally accepted, is:

    Clutch - playing one's best in times of great stress or need.

    So, using simple logic, since it is impossible for a person to play at a higher level higher than 100%, for a person to be clutch in times of great need, they must also be slack all other times.
     
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  27. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If we all agree that "clutch" means what you just wrote, then every single NFL starter is clutch.

    However, I think most people who believe in "clutch" think "clutch players" ARE playing at a level higher than 100%. IOW, magic! lol
     
  28. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    This is where your stance fails, if someone can succumb to the pressure, then obviously, someone can rise to the pressure, as I was saying, you can't have one without the other.

    It's like fear and bravery, when everyone runs from the grenade, there's one guy that jumps on it to save his buddies, the absolute pinnacle of clutch.

    While everyone else is running in blind fear, that guy worked out the possibilities of him surviving and that of his mates and realized that him jumping on the grenade provided the best results possible, and he worked that out in the ultimate moment of stress while everyone else can think only of self preservation.

    Clutch exists, it's not up for opinion, which is why you would not be able to site one reputable source to back up your argument.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Clutch, or playing better under pressure, is a farce. Choking does not mean there is clutch.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK.. so I did a really quick review of some of the "performance under pressure" literature, starting with this paper:
    http://journals.humankinetics.com/doi/abs/10.1123/jsep.31.5.583?journalCode=jsep

    Not sure you guys can access that but in any case it has a bunch of references and it tries to incorporate a lot of what has been done in the previous literature so it's a good place to start.

    Several things:

    1) The generally accepted definition of "clutch" is performing either better under pressure or at one's optimum (100%) under pressure. So this does fit with what we've been talking about.

    2) Most of these studies are doing things in "controlled" situations, meaning they're taking a large number of athletes (mostly non-professional) and then subjecting them to different "pressure" conditions where objectively the pressure is greater in one condition than another. A rare paper here or there tries to estimate the subjective level of pressure experienced, but mostly it's objective pressure.

    3) They all cite evidence for "choking" and "clutch", but again none of this seems to answer the question of where on that performance curve most professional athletes are. For a few select professional athletes the stats are clear enough that they are used as examples of clutch and choking. For example, Greg Norman repeatedly blew leads in major championships (choking) while Tiger Woods performed way above expected in them (clutch).

    4) In general, the quality of the research doesn't seem to be that high lol (seriously). Yes they have a few controlled situations to demonstrate that performance under pressure curve I talked about before (where up to a certain point, increase in arousal increases performance but beyond that greater arousal decreases it), but it doesn't go much further. The hypotheses they "test" are kind of weakly defined general concepts or precisely defined ad-hoc ones. But it seems to be a decently sized field judging from the number of citations of some of these papers.

    In any case, the measure I proposed in post #139 where you compare the decrement of a given player's performance in a "pressure" situation to expected decrement (how that condition naturally lowers expected performance) fits in with the general literature on the subject. So in summary, the literature demonstrates lots of evidence for both choking and clutch, but its applicability to professional athletes seems to be only on a case-by-case basis.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Generally speaking, people see a player do well in a pressure situation, and they remember that, but they tend to forget the times they failed. Over a career, I think most "clutch" stats closely resemble a players normal stats. Greg Norman had plenty of "clutch" moments throughout his career, but he's labeled a choker for blowing one tournament, the 96 Masters. Clutch is a myth. You either perform or you don't.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't follow golf, but this is what they're saying about Greg Norman:
    - He spent 331 weeks at #1 and won 88 (or 86 by another measure) professional tournaments.
    - However, in the 4 majors he won only 2 out of 48 tries and squandered leads in the final round 5 times.
    - He also lost each of the 4 majors in a sudden-death playoff after being tied after 4 rounds of play.

    By contrast they say Tiger Woods:
    - won 14 majors and lost only once when having the lead going into the final round
    - in sudden-death, Tiger won 15 of 17 playoffs and is 3 of 3 in majors.

    Point is, statistically there's a difference from expected given what they normally produced. Tiger isn't as dominant in non-sudden death situations for example.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tiger Woods almost never lost any tournament when entering the final round with a lead. Tiger played in majors the way he played in regular tournaments. He dominated. He didn't suddenly become a different player in majors.

    The reason Norman is labeled a "choker" is negate ghee blew a 6 stroke lead on the final day of the Masters tournament.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. I really shouldn't defend their claims either because I do have some issues with the methodology I'm seeing (or lack thereof). For example, I'm not seeing the hypothesis testing necessary to show a lot of what they're claiming couldn't be explained by random variation alone.

    In any case, what I will say is that you will find some pro athletes that do produce statistically above what you'd expect in higher pressure situations, based on their normal performance levels. That's consistent with the hypothesis that in less pressure situations they're just not "aroused" enough to perform at peak levels, though it doesn't prove that hypothesis.
     
  35. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    My stance doesn't fail. It seems you're not understanding my stance, however.

    Jumping on a grenade is not "clutch" in the sense we are talking about here. If you think it is then you're not understanding.

    For the sake of argument, I'll play along with your definition of "clutch".

    Being in the NFL is "jumping on the grenade". There are hundreds, possibly thousands, of people with the athletic ability to play in the NFL. The thing that separates those people not playing in the NFL from those playing in the NFL is mental. This mental ability allows them to play well under pressure. Notice I said "play well". Not play better than your ability or play better than normal, but the same as they usually do.

    Clutch would be like saying a 6'-1" NBA player grows to 7'-1" during the playoffs. Not possible....just like "clutch".
     
  36. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Who plays better? I understand that Flacco and Eli have better post season stats than regular season, but they are like 2 out of 1000's. Is that a big enough outlier to make any claims?
     
  37. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Hey non clutch/flat earthers...

    How do you explain this eclipse taking place if the earth is indeed flat?

    Also, can you clarify how many gunmen were on the grassy knoll?
     
  38. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    lol....

    Duh, is a plate a sphere? ;)


    Fin-O...can you tell me what player(s) you think is "clutch" and why?
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Still waiting for someone to explain why clutch doesn't mean a player is slack at all other times then when they're not being "clutch"....
     
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