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Here's What's Wrong With Cutler...Give Me A Minute...Wait I Know There Has To Be Something...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Rickysabeast, Aug 8, 2017.

  1. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Saying "he wasn't allowed to run" is pretty black and white. The speeding thing makes no sense, it should be obvious why.
     
  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Riiiight.

    Again, you're not allowed to speed. Speeding still happens. You are even not always pulled over when caught speeding. You are also not always ticketed if caught and pulled over speeding.

    Look, I'm sorry it destroys your whole silly BS theory that runs literally counter to first hand accounts by players who were actually there, but that doesn't mean everyone else is wrong.
     
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  3. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    [​IMG]
     
  4. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Its doesn't destroy anything because its a nonsensical analogy.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK, I redid whatever analyses I thought I did long time ago. So.. I can't find a QB where his ENTIRE post-season record has a statistically significant decrement. But there are multiple stretches of consecutive playoff games where you do find the decrement is far lower than you'd expect from random variance.

    For example, Eli's 2nd 4-0 playoff run in 2011 only requires that average post-season passer rating is 2.7 points less than regular season rating to be statistically significant. Eli's first 4-0 run in 2007 requires post-season passer rating to be 6.2 points less.

    Most impressive case would be all 10 of Flacco's playoff games from 2010 onwards (ignoring his first 5 games). For that stretch from 2010-2014 average playoff passer rating could be 2.7 points ABOVE regular season passer rating and Flacco's still doing something beyond what random variance would explain.

    Again though, in each case you'd have to make an argument that the QB was somehow "different" during that year or in Flacco's case.. from 2010 onwards. But yeah.. can't find anyone with say 10+ games where the entire record is significant. Oh, and Kurt Warner is also very impressive post-season wise.

    In any case, to answer your question directly we're only looking for outliers from the outset. So you'd be able to make claims for the outliers only.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2017
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  6. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I can't believe we're reliving the clutch argument again.

    And the same people believe choke exists but clutch doesn't...

    "I don't like this player, he chokes too much."

    "what I like about him is he doesn't choke, or is clutch."
     
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  7. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Well then, I guess you proved everyone else wrong. Lol

    Anyhow, I guess we need to define "choke" for some people.

    Choking isn't necessarily having a poor game. Sometimes, due to pressure or not, a player just has a bad game. Why? Well, most likely because people just aren't perfect.

    However, when a player consistently plays considerably worse under pressure, i.e. Tom Brady, we can start claiming that person is a "choker".
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Eclipses aren't difficult to explain with a flat Earth because you're just dealing with something in the sky.

    Actually this flat-Earth thing is instructive in some sense. It's well known in math/science that there are an infinite number of possible hypotheses that fit the same data equally well. It's not impossible to assume the Earth is flat and make your model as consistent with observations as our current understanding in physics/astronomy etc..

    The difference is the number of extra assumptions you have to make to get the same predictive power.

    For example, you can use the same theory of gravity to predict the Earth should be spherical in nature, predict the orbits of all kinds of celestial bodies and predict the results of all kinds of experiments on Earth. Assuming the Earth is flat means that for each observation you'll have to come up with a different explanation. For example, gravity could be explained by a (flat) Earth accelerating. Yeah, but then the laws of physics look different! Laws of physics look the same only in inertial reference frames (when there is no acceleration), so you have to invent all kinds of extra mechanisms to compensate for that initial assumption of a flat Earth accelerating.

    Just one example of course.. same is true when they say Earth looks round in photographs because of the lens used. OK.. so how to explain photos of other things that "look" fine with the same lens? More assumptions needed!

    lol.. just had to get that out.
     
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  9. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    Not a big fan of the Eclipse. But think from what I hear. They are saying over in Ooohs and Ahhs!
     
  10. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    There's a decent chance our guards aren't great this year, leading to Cutler getting hit quite a bit, leading to him missing some games.

    Our OG's and OL coach may be Jay's greatest weakness.
     
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  11. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ryan Tannehill. Any incompletion he ever had on 3rd down or in the 4th quarter was not his fault.
     
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  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I can't bring myself to read this. Wayyy to intelligent for me.
     
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  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    ..... and now Tom Brady is a choke artist?

    [​IMG]
     
  14. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I blame globers. They tricked RT into believing that the Earth is round. As such, and because RT can throw the ball so far, he takes into account the Coriolis effect. And since the Earth does not rotate he throws off target.
     
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  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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  16. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    :chuckle:
     
  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Rock, for some reason I see you as an angry 55 yr old with a large, unkept mustache who wears a sleeveless shirt that reads, "Free mustache rides" to local high school football games.

    Amirite? Lol
     
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  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Sure it is...from the same guy that thinks the players and coaches all got together and lied about Philbin. I mean you you don't even recognize evidence let alone analogies.
     
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  19. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Dan, being in the NFL for NFL players is normal, like being a soldier is for a soldier, not everyone can be in the NFL, just like not everyone can be a soldier, and day to day stress on the job is high for both, so your analogy isn't accurate.

    This whole thing that you have created about the "better than their abilities" clutch definition, well, you are the only one bringing it up, just to deny it it seems, because as far as I can see, it is nobodies argument, certainly not mine, so it has no place in our discussion.

    Robert Horry is a good NBA clutch example, he was never a great player, but he hit the big shots.
     
  20. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    What? Your military analogy makes no sense.

    Then explain to us what your definition of "clutch" is.

    Robert Horry had a career regular season FG% of .425. His postseason average was .426. Regular season 3pt FG% was .341 and postseason was .359. No statistical significance. I.E. he was the same in the regular season as he was in the post season.
     
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  21. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    If you're referring to my screen name - it was from a client sheet we had at a bank I used to work for. I had to call the guy and kept putting the phone on mute every time I said his name because I was laughing so hard. It ended up becoming my nickname around the office.

    I have a looooooong way to go to 55.
     
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  22. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Name and attitude. Lol
     
  23. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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  24. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    You're just as argumentative as I am man. LOL
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Or something you see in the credits of "Ram your pole in my hole IV"
     
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  28. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Actually Dan, it was the "jumping on a grenade = being in the NFL" analogy that made no sense, it's all about thinking under pressure and making the right decisions and executing them, and in the NFL, playoffs = pressure.

    My definition is no different than anybodies, rising to the occasion down to simply not choking, succumbing to pressure is the norm, so anything above that is clutch.

    To clarify, clutch players also succumb to pressure, it happens, no one is unaffected, they just do it less often, just as chokers can rise to the occasion at times, they just do it less often.

    Well, clearly Dan, you aren't personally aware of Big Shot Rob, lol, he's basically an NBA "clutch" legend, also, generally, players "everystat" goes down in the playoffs, where teams actually play defense, so your stats actually do more to prove my point than yours.

    This is a video about clutch and Horry.
     
  29. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. It is.
     
  30. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    If you feel like Brady is a choker you are free to voice that opinion. Just as anybody is free to feel like Tannehill is elite. But you would in the minority and would not be taken seriously.
     
  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I grew up loving Horry. He was one of my favorite players on NBA Jam... lol
     
  32. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    He's not a "choker". I do that because jdang loves it. Lol...

    Anyhow, he is rattled more than any other QB great I've ever seen. When he gets even the hint of pressure he wilts. However, he is as cool as a cucumber in big games when not pressured. Could be the fact that he knows the defensive plays before hand, however. Lol
     
  33. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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  34. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I was just talking about that with my neighbor during the eclipse. There is absolutely no rational justification in believing the Earth is flat. If anyone truly insists it is, accept they are a delusional fool and remove yourself from their presence. It is not worth it. Flat Earthers have a twisted up nonsensical way of saying the eclipse proves the Earth is flat. My neighbor told me what they say. We both had a good laugh, and the discussion moved on to something else.
    There are also some who believe no astronaut ever set foot on the moon. Of course they have no explanation for our Apollo astronauts leaving a reflector there. It is about the size of a football field as I recall. Anyone on Earth with the proper equipment can bounce a beam off it. Likely not any of us, or our friends and neighbors have such equipment though. :)
     
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  35. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Precisely.

    Same goes with the "Clutch is a Myth" folk.
     
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  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Isn't Robert Horry's shooting in the playoffs right in line with his regular season stats?
     
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  37. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    But, I will go to my grave believing LHO did not act alone. :)
     
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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Good find and good summary!

    And yeah that dovetails with what I found in post #205. I can find stretches of performances in "clutch" situations where statistical tests show the player is doing something unlikely to be explained by random variation, but I can't find a single player with sufficient sample size in the postseason where he is consistently "clutch".
     
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