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Bucs Game Moving Due to Irma

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 4, 2017.

  1. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    The game won't be played anywhere in Florida on Sunday. Orlando will be impacted as well. We can all hope that the storm turns and misses Miami. Then all of you down there will be safe, and the NFL can play the game in Miami on Monday Night.

    If it does keep heading to Miami I'm starting to think it won't be so bad to have the game Sunday in Atlanta, Carolina or New Orleans. All those Bucs division rivals are on the road. Play it Sunday night before Giants/Cowboys when the Saints/Falcons/Panthers aren't on and make the tickets cheap. They'd obviously cheer against the Bucs, and those places have a good amount of Dolphins fans anyway who would show up. Actually the Saints play Monday so it wouldn't interfere at all with the fans watching it on TV. We'd lose another home game, but they would've be traveling that far.

    Some fans floated a San Diego idea: a place with lots of Dolphins fans and angry (former) Chargers fans. Plus the Dolphins would be able to stay west for LA.

    Thursday night would've been a good option, but it seems like they feel it will be a distraction from preparation. They even could've decided yesterday right away to move it to Wednesday night.
     
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    When I go to Miami/Carolina games the stadium is almost 50% Dolphins....having it here would be awesome and I would definitely show up. I'm crossing my fingers!
     
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  3. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Per Jeremy Fowler on Twitter @JFowlerESPN, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are being considered to host the game on Sunday.
     
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  4. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I'll take my son and go to Pittsburgh in a heartbeat.
     
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  5. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    I would be in Philly in a heartbeat.
     
  6. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Depending on ticket prices I'd travel to either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia for the game.
     
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  7. BevoPhin

    BevoPhin Well-Known Member

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    If anyone in south florida is planning on evacuating and driving north, make sure you fill up some gas cans before you do. We just went through this with Harvey and thankfully I had a few cans filled because the roads northbound were packed and gas stations were running out of gas.
     
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  8. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Any reason given as to why Pitt or Philly? New Orleans would seem to make a lot of sense. Atlanta does have a soccer game on Saturday, but that is a shiny new stadium and the field should be able to take it. Carolina has a big Fins fanbase as we've seen. A west coast stadium would make some sense with Miami playing in LA during week 2. New York could make sense with the good amount of Phins fans here as well (although they'd probably not want it where the Jets play, but let's be real...the Giants own that place).

    I guess Philadelphia would be the better of the two...Pittsburgh are a bit of a rival in a way.
     
  9. TheOne

    TheOne Active Member

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    I say just have them play 16 weeks in a row.
     
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  10. Miami_Dolfan

    Miami_Dolfan Member

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    game will be played in Week 11
     
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  13. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  14. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    They didn't want the Dolphins to have 6 home games. Well maybe if the NFL didn't force them to play in London so they could host the Super Bowl it would've been easier to have the game at a neutral site like New Orleans. Still could've had it Thursday night...but they probably figured having it week 11 is in the best interest of their wallets. Going to NOLA would've meant less money.

    Now we lose the bye, which comes between two PATRIOTS games.
     
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  15. shadokp

    shadokp Active Member

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    Well that was the worse case scenario for the team. We are on such a teetering edge we need as much as possible to go in our favor for any chance to win and so this will probably result in some losses. the best news out of all this is the players can concentrate on staying safe with their families and not worry about football for a while.
     
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  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Actually, the bye was to happen before the 1st Pats game.
     
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  17. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I'm adjusting my expectations for the season. An exhausted Dolphin team stumbles in the final month and loses 2-3 games, missing a wildcard spot. This losing of the bye week, not the injury to Tanny looks to derail the season.

    Now, if they can win enough games in the first half of the season, then maybe that can be enough to offset the last month of losses. Perhaps Gase can ease up on the practice time and give them more time off to rest? They need to look at ways to allow the team more rest time this season and hope that can be enough to make up for losing the bye.
     
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  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yeah, as of right now I am not expecting the Dolphins to make the playoffs.
     
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  21. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Ah thanks, I thought it was Pats, Bye, Pats. It was Bye, Pats, Broncos, Pats. Sucks anyway, that is going to be a big game and the Dolphins would've been well rested going into it. Even being in New England where they haven't won in ages anyway.
     
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  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I think we may be overvaluing the bye week. I mean it is nice to have a break and all, but I don't think it's season changing.
     
  23. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Not season changing? A game where players are bruised, battered, and pummeled every week and they lose the only break they get? While every other team except Tampa gets a break? Ask the players and coaches if it's season changing and I'm sure they would set you straight.
     
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  24. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    One thing is for sure, if Adam Gase somehow gets this team to the playoffs after losing his starting QB, losing a home game to London, and now losing a bye week, he better earn coach of the year.
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There's a SLIGHT statistical advantage for teams playing after a bye week. From 2012-2016 teams after a bye week won 51.9% of the time. Dolphins have done much better: 4-1
    http://www.cheatsheetwarroom.com/fantasy-football/nfl/bye-weeks.aspx#teamRecordsAfterBye

    Of course we don't know how having no bye week affects a team at the end of a season (hardly any samples to look at), but you'd still expect that 51.9% to be much higher if indeed a bye week helped a lot.

    Oh.. and this shows the effect of WHERE the bye week is is essentially nil. Win% data is from 1994-1998 and 2002-2011:
    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/is-this-real-is-the-late-bye-week-a-competitive-advantage/
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2017
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  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The players like it but it is not season changing.

    We've had a lot of early season byes, they didn't make or break or season. You really think players are going to be hurting more at week 14 if they haven't had a bye then they would be at week 14 if they had a bye 10 games ago?

    You act like every game adds a specific unit of pain to a player.
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2017
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The importance of the bye comes down to who you play right after, because that gives the coaches an extra week to plan. Even then, that comes down to how good your coaches are.

    The only time it matters injury wise is if the timing works out where an important player is coming back from injury that week, but that is obviously random.
     
  28. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if the game was between the Steelers and patriots if it would have been moved to a bye week :) I bet if belicheat had to play 16 weeks in a row that game would have been moved to a different location lol!!!!

    The percentage of playoff chances has fallen 25% just merely cancelling this game, I thought playing 10 weeks with a bye then running the gauntlet with the pats twice was going to be a task now it seems even more a killer, if we win 2 or 3 out of the last 7 id be ecstatic.

    prayers for everyone in Florida!!!
     
  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    How did you arrive at the 25% number?
     
  30. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Yea, no. I guess that wouldn't work. Maybe if they moved that game vs Carolina to Sunday but that's money so...
     
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  31. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Bye weeks come in handy when you've got mounting injuries that need a little rest and TLC ....... as well as for teams with pathetic depth.
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2017
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  32. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    Merely my opinion on the 25%, and here is how, as the season gets deeper and deeper teams with early bye weeks lose more games after week 10 (I don't have exact numbers for that) so the earliest bye week is week 5 latest is week 11. Teams who have bye weeks 8-11 statistically win more late in the season because there is less games and less teams to prepare for as well as more games to begin the season to judge where your team is and the direction you need to go. Week 5 teams have really a month of extra practice to get ready for the onslaught of 11 games stretch and 6-10 teams to prepare for with possible short weeks and adjusting on the fly. So adding 5% less a game is for the extra 5 games to make a 16 game stretch while including the London trip the out west trip Thursday game as well as the short week after the Carolina MNF game plus only being able to prepare/judge your team on 3 practices during the week I would say 5% per extra game is generous in a game where beat up players is the cause for a lot of losses.

    Miami was a +350 odd to make the playoffs at opening line im sure with RT injury it went down a little and signing cutler might have made that around +375 +400 I bet its around +450 +525 right now interesting to see.
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You have any proof of this? Look at post #105. I linked to someone who showed that where the bye week falls has no effect on overall win%. Only way what you're saying would be consistent with that is if teams that have bye weeks late just happen to be weaker teams BEFORE the bye.

    So unless you have stats to back this up I'm going with what that link showed which suggests the opposite is true.
     
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  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok, 25% is your opinion. Great. No problem.

    Now where did the teams with "8-11 bye weeks statitiscally win more late" come from? Is that real?
     
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  35. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I look at this as motivation for our team. Gut check time Coach Gase.

    I believe we will use this adversity along with all the other tragedies we have suffered this year, and become stronger. Team unity should be at an all-time high come about week 11. I expect us to go 6-1 starting that week, looking like a team that NOBODY really wants to go up against in the playoffs (Like 2016 Packers). Not sure we can go all the way, but playoffs is ours this season.
     
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  36. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Obviously theres a lot of money and contracts involved that runs way deep that we would never comprehend so it will never happen but in my opinion if a game has to be moved by any team because of a natural disaster then all teams should get a second bye week..
     
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  37. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    That's fine take the link!!! it was just my opinion but here's something to think about......

    That's really is a stat that is impossible to make, unless you have the same team with the same schedule and the same roster yearly that would be impossible to judge all you can correlate would be bye position to strength of schedule even then it would be skewed. But I think we can all agree that NE is consistent no matter what so here are the past years for NE with the bye weeks.

    2016 - bye week 9 - 2 total losses - 1 after bye
    2015 - bye week 4 - 4 total losses - 4 after the bye all after week 10
    2014 - bye week 10 - 3 losses - 2 after bye
    2013 - bye week 10 - 4 losses - 2 after bye
    2012 - bye week 9 - 4 losses - 1 after bye
    2011 - bye week 7 - 3 losses - 2 after bye
    2010 - bye week 5 - 2 losses - 1 after bye
    2009 - bye week 8 - 6 losses - 4 after bye

    with the exception of 2010 you can see the earlier the bye the more games you lose in total is all im saying and that's merely taking a small sample size of the most consistent team in football based on records and opinion of myself.

    ALSO.......
    Miami is now +425 to make the playoffs up from +350 at the start so my 25% was really not that far off, however I think the line went down after RT got hurt I think it went to +375 +400, and these guys do this for a living so obviously all your "stats" that don't matter, matter to change a line lol just saying!!!!

    But in retrospect money on Miami not making the playoffs could make that line move as well but Miami isn't a "hot" betting team so I doubt that mattered much, its very rare a non top 5 teams odds change. prior to the season starting.

    Like I said merely my opinion off of stats!!!
     
  38. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I had the same thoughts about maybe Irma will make them play for something else as you said, just as I think maybe Houston will play very emotional on Sunday and I see Houston covering 5 points easily against jax!!!!
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The sample size for your NE example is 8. The sample size for the link I gave is 460!! No comparison: link is better.

    Also, your logic with moneylines is wrong. Convert the moneylines to percent as follows: 100/(100+425) = 19.05% probability right now while it was 100/(100+350) = 22.22% at the start. That's NOT a 25% difference.

    Finally, if you want to make the argument with moneylines you need to show us the moneyline for yesterday vs. today because we're only talking about the effect of the bye. I bet there's hardly a difference.
     
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  40. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    You'd think they'd have an advantage getting, what amounts to, 3 weeks off for a game in LA. Then what has to be an automatic W against the Jets, before going to London to play a Saints team that's supposed to be on the decline.

    I like their chances to be 3-0 before hosting the Titans in their "home opener". Except for a home date against the Jets their schedule is brutal until they play the tanking Bills twice in December.

    We don't know if teams like Carolina, Denver, Baltimore and even the Raiders will be better or worse this year though. I'm sure we thought the 2016 schedule looked challenging a year ago, it ended up being ridiculously easy.
     
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