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Bucs Game Moving Due to Irma

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 4, 2017.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Of course you'll lose more games in total when the bye is earlier. There's more games to play. If you had a bye week in week four, you'd only have 3 haves you could lose before, and 13 to lose after. It's nothing more than averages.
     
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  2. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Totally disagree with this bro. And I am a math genius. It's the same amount of games no matter when the bye is. Why is an earlier bye week a predictor of a losing strategy? It's still 16 games.
     
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  3. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    It's not about math, it's about phisiology. The players bodies need that break mid season.

    You will overwork them playing them 16 straight weeks which will lead to more injuries and fatigue putting them at a disadvantage against all the other teams who wont have to do that.
     
  4. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Injuries are usually a freak thing. They can happen to anyone. Also, there has to be a way to mitigate it by lightening the workload if durability and stamina becomes a problem through practices. There has to be a way. I trust Adam Gase. I think I gave him Less than Zero chance of making the playoffs last year after that awful start. Gase won't have that problem 2 years in a row. I think we go 4-0 to start the season.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Gotta look at the context of how the word "total" was used. bigballa2102 in post #117 was using the word "total" to mean "total games after the bye" in this sentence:
    That's what resnor was referring to: "total games after the bye" should be greater the earlier the bye.

    btw.. it is a bit funny when you say you're a math genius then say this (even if not meant literally):
     
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  6. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    OK...

    #1 - It's still 16 games, No matter what the "stats" say.



    #2 - One of my favorite movies ever. That's why I capitalized the "L" and"Z".

     
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  7. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

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    I wonder by how much a bye week actually reduces the probability of injury. I'm not saying it doesn't, because in theory, it's rational to assume that it would. Moreover, they have existed since 1990, so it must be sowing some benefit for the NFL to keep it around. However, I'm curious as to the extent of it's impact. Does anyone have data on this?

    Out of the three options the NFL had in terms of the Dolphins/Bucs game (reschedule for later, reschedule for earlier, or relocate) I would argue that relocation would have had the largest negative impact on this Dolphins team. Already down one home game, playing 10 away from Hard Rock would have been detrimental. Since 2003, Miami has a home win percentage of 59.7%, an above average mark, while their away win percentage is a measly 44.3%. Obviously, rescheduling the game for earlier in the week would have been the best option, but rescheduling for later in the season -- while having consequences -- wasn't the worst possible outcome.

    If we look at this week as an extra seven days to prepare for the Chargers (give or take a few, given that the team had been preparing for TB earlier), while LA is coming off a *likely* bruising from the Broncos at Mile High, we should realistically be able to open the season with a win.

    Again, this isn't the ideal scenario, but neither is Irma. I'm just happy they didn't take away another home game from a team that perpetually struggles on the road.

    Citation: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_away?range=yearly_all&sc=all_games
     
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  8. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    So I think its safe to assume, that next season we get a late bye
     
  9. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Bye, bye. :/
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nice find btw!

    The bye week is now between weeks 5 and 11 but has been between weeks 4 and 12 in the past. New injury risk from 2000-2014 according to this link shows that there's no real difference in injury risk for weeks 4-12 compared to weeks 12-17:
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/nfl-injuries-part-ii-variation-over-time

    So it doesn't look like the bye week reduces new injury probability in any significant way. Oh.. that spike week 1 includes offseason so don't include week 1.
     
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  11. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    It's not just about injury. It's also about performance and recovery. A team that has a break midseason will be fresher and have more energy for the second half of the season than a team that gets no break.

    The players know this wich is why they were all against losing the bye week.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's how the discussion started. Look back at post #105. Only a 51.9% advantage for teams coming out of the bye week, when they're freshest and when the performance discrepancy should be largest??

    And no significant effect on win% based on where the bye week is? Then couple this with evidence that injury risk isn't higher and you're getting real good evidence the bye week doesn't matter anywhere near as much as many think (apparently incuding the players who obviously feel better but aren't showing much better performance on the field as a result).
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think these are stats that our staff should use on the players psyche, if they keep thinking that the bye is such a negative, they'll convince themselves it is.
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Cash...

    If your bye is week 5, that means you have 4 games before the bye. You can only lose 4 games. That means you have 12 games after the bye, so you can lose 12. Odds are, if your bye week is week 5, you're going to lose more games after the bye, but it's just because you play more games after the bye than before. It isn't that the bye week has some magical power. Just like if your bye is week 11. In that case, you'd have 10 games prior to the bye, and 6 after. Do you really think most teams are going to lose more games in a 6 game span than in a 10 game span?

    Math genius. Pfffttttt.
     
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  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Lol @ math genius. 9th grade Algebra doesn't make you a genius.
     
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  16. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    Think our guys won't be fired up to finally get out and play week 2?

    P.S. Be safe everyone down there.
     
  17. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    You obviously aren't a HR manager trying to hire people for the business. Cuz I can tell you there's been many times when I woulda thought people who knew that Algebra was some kind of math thingy were geniuses, comparatively.
     
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  18. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Smells like BS to me. We get punished because of the weather? Of course the NFL makes the worst decision for the Dolphins.
     
  19. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    WTF?
     
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  20. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Get over yourself. It's only a game. It's only a sport.

    I too would have preferred to see this game played Sunday at a neutral site, but given the destruction, and now potential path of this storm it's likely going to cause tons of damage to both Miami, and Tampa. Let's not forget, the players of this GAME all have family, friends, lives built in the communities of Tampa and Miami that need to be tended to. You think those guys are really going to be wanting to play a game for entertainment purposes as that storm rips their lives apart?

    I wasn't keen on losing the week 11 bye either. But good points have been made by others here, as recent as only a handful of years ago by weeks were as early as week 2, 3, etc. I think week 4 is typical start for bye weeks now. That's still playing 12 games straight, and then some if you're heading to the playoffs as a wildcard team lets say.

    In the grand scheme of things... it sucks, sure, but it's nothing in comparison to what's about to happen to so many people, including those playing for both teams.

    There's really not a better option. Remove yourself, and your sunday afternoon plans from the equation and you should be able to see that.
     
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  21. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    Even your logic of 460 samples does that include every team having the same schedule with the same rosters and different bye weeks? no its an impossible state to correctly judge. judging the patriots 1992 season with a bye week of 10 and the pats 2010 season with a bye week of 5 cant be correlated and being a statistical master mind as you seem to be you would know that.

    and dealing with ML I also said/guessed the line changed after RT got hurt and I did not have the line until yesterday and what it opened at and based of any knowledge you can look up and see Miami is not a hot betting team so I doubt enough money was put on them to not make the playoffs to make that line move from +350 to +425, I was merely stating that im sure the line changed after RT got hurt but it wouldn't have dropped 75 pts so I was guessing that it dropped 25-50pts at the max so the last 50-25pts was prolly from the bye week change. ONCE AGAIN MY OPINION!!!!! based on the 2 lines that I have starting and yesterday.

    your math is wrong on the percentage.
    here it correctly broken down for you.
    original line - 100/350 = 28.6% (rounded up)
    new line - 100/425 = 23.5% (rounded up)
    difference in percentage 28.6%-23.5% = 5.1%
    so on that note you now find 25% of the original 28.6% which would be 28.6/4 = 7.15%
    so in total the difference of the old line to new line is as follows 28.6 x 17.8% = 5.1% (rounded up)
    so it was a difference of 17.8% not bad on merely a guess.

    what I am anxious to see is the line on o/u of games won is at. So in all your educationally dropped knowledge it was all based on my sole opinion if you don't agree with it fine.
     
  22. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I literally laughed at this I don't know if you were being funny or serious but I found the delivery funny as hell lol
     
  23. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it makes or breaks the probability of injury everyone is somehow banged up or injured late In the year its about letting them sit and get rest later in the season to finish strong!! now with a 16 game stretch our guys are going to be running on 80% come week 9 and have no shot of getting that 80% up, its like in video games you can fight 4 bosses and not die but at some point your going to need to eat the lil shiny apple for energy!!! unless your a savage that is!!!
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Umm.. no your logic is wrong. It's actually easy to prove you're wrong. Let's say we do the calculation as you suggest, taking a positive moneyline and putting that in the denominator with 100 in the numerator.

    OK, then ask yourself what a moneyline of +100 corresponds to percent-wise? According to you the calculation is simply 100/100=1, or +100 moneyline according to you corresponds to 100% probability of winning. Except that by definition +100 moneyline = 50% chance of winning.

    The reason you need to add that extra 100 in the denominator is because moneylines represent odds, a plus moneyline represents the odds against of that moneyline to 100. And let's say you have a 2:1 odds ratio. Obviously the probability of success would be 2/(2+1) or 1/(2+1) depending on whether it's odds for or odds against, not 2/2 or 1/2 as you're saying.

    You also don't have to take my word for it if you don't want to and just look it up:
    https://sportsprofit.wordpress.com/...-money-line-into-a-percentage-and-vice-versa/
    Neither in your 8 samples nor in the 460 samples nor in virtually any statistical analysis are you dealing with things that occur in the exact same conditions. Doesn't mean you can't estimate the effect of things, like a bye, in the presence of random variation. In fact, that's exactly what statistics is for.

    And yes you can and should include a bye on week 5 from 1992 with a bye on week 10 from 2010 in the same analysis because the effect of a bye (extra rest) should show up regardless of year. So on average, if the week the bye occurs in has an effect, you should see different win% for bye weeks early vs. late. Also remember that you looked at one team for 8 years while they looked at ALL teams over a total of 15 years.
     
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  25. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    So another consideration here, putting aside the injury argument. It also allows teams an additional week once per year to prepare for an opponent which is an advantage, even if it's not a HUGE advantage. You could say Miami has this advantage now, but the hurricane is going to negate any additional prep time.

    It's a crappy situation all the way around. I get that in the grand scheme of things safety and family is the most important thing for both teams. What bothers me is it seems like both teams and most players wanted to play the game this week at a neutral site, and it doesn't seem like the league honored that wish. They had plenty of time to act and choose a location. Moving to an alternate location would have allowed players to bring families along and get them out of harms way, and provide them time to prepare their homes.

    I'm sure there are other factors I'm not aware of, I just hope the league gave fair consideration to what the teams, players and coaches wanted when making this decision.
     
  26. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Does Miami have to treat this week as their bye week now? If so there are rules regarding practice times and amounts and what the players are allowed to do during the bye week aren't there? So besides the Hurricane recovery issues they will have to deal with that also.
     
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  27. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    OH MY GOD CAN FOOTBALL JUST START ALREADY!!!!!!

    We are down to a nerd fight between BigBalla and Cbrad (and no offense Brother Balla, but I think you just may be outgunned, Cbrad could be their King) for entertainment.
     
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  28. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    cbrad seems pretty cool to me!

    No offense, Balla, I just don't know you all that well yet. lol
     
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  29. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Really? take a chill pill bud. the Hurricane and the game aren't mutually exclusive.

    Most of my family is still down on the Southeast FL coast. I'm obviously concerned about the storm, and my prayers are with the state, but the hurricane is going to hit whether or not the Dolphins play on Sunday.

    Your post is presumptuous and insulting but I suppose that is what you were aiming for. Why make this personal?
     
  30. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I saw a weather channel report today that said winds in Miami would be about 127mph at 1pm on Sunday. On both sides of the state getting Hurricane winds all the way up. That's not as bad as 175-200 by far but the waves are going to be the killers. Get to higher ground if you can. I'm not claiming anybody is listening, but I'm lighting a candle, hunker down and hold each other tight boys and girls. Football matters, but only if you are here to watch.
     
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  31. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    :lol: overreact much? Personal? Insulting? Give me a break. You're ranting about it being BS, and the Dolphins being punished because of weather, and complaining about the NFL making a bad decision for the Dolphins as if it's some conspiracy in your original post. I'm merely pointing out to you that there's things in life much more important than a football game on a Sunday afternoon, because despite the fact you have family in the path of this thing, it didn't seem so important at the time. Of course it's still going to hit, but that's irrelevant. The game can be played later, when everyone involved can focus on it, rather than being worried about what's going on back at home in Tampa or Miami.

    That being said man, if it came across to you that when, then as I said, I apologize, but there's been too many people complaining about this (not just here, but online in other places) as if their enjoyment of watching a game for 4 hours on Sunday is more important of the well being of many people, it irritates me. Wishing for the best for your family down there.
     
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  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    my approach to this is to try to keep life and football separate and try to find the solution to the football side, just because we have to, because the league is not gonna wait for us..

    if your ok with sacrificing the season then thats cool, Ive been trying to find the best solution for safety while keeping the season in order from a competitive standpoint.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No one is sacrificing the season. we went 1-4 last year.
     
  34. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What the hell are you talking about deej? Sacrifice the season? Huh? :confused2::confused1::confused::dunno:

    It's pretty hard to keep the life and football sides separate. I mean, sure, maybe it's easier for you and I since were not down there.

    I think you have to keep in mind the mentality and focus of these players even if we played Sunday at a neutral site. How focused and prepared do you really think they'd be Sunday afternoon at 1pm going to play a game while their homes and lives are being potentially torn apart by this hurricane? Not just us, but Tampa too. You can talk about coaches motivating the players psychologically all you want, it's not going to help. These guys are athletes, playing a game, usually focused on nothing but it, yes... but these are unique circumstances that aren't going to be easy to overlook and ignore regardless of what mind tricks the coaches try and use. It's not that simple to separate life, and football for them, when they're the ones trying to deal with both.
     
  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    They practiced the first half of the week normally, which means they got all the bye-week requirements out of the way. Gase already gave the team the rest of the week off.
     
  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If I had to choose between protecting every Miami Dolphins player and their family members OR going 0-16 this season, I would take 0-16 in a heartbeat. That would be sacrificing the season and you know what....it's a sacrifice clearly worth making when you're talking about people's lives. The NFL CLEARLY did the right thing from a people standpoint and I applaud them for it.

    Anyone who can't understand that should hop on a bus and head down to Miami for the weekend...then share their complaints again in three weeks when they finally have the ability to communicate again.
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I'm not giving you crap and I agree with the sentiment you meant, but you worded it wrong and it is kind of funny.

    You said rather lose every game then help Dolphin players and their families. I guess you really hate the players. Hahahaha:lol:
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Ross apparently saying he's taking care of the families of the coaches and players:
    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ahead-their-week-2-game-chargers-sources-said
    Traveling that early to the West Coast should also help negate time zone disadvantages. Now if only Irma would cooperate a bit and not force us to cancel any more home games..
     
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  39. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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    Good luck to everyone on this board who is, or might be, in Irma's path...
     
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  40. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Loo time no talk, I just wanted to drop in and wish the best for my Florida peeps and all the others in the path of this thing.

    Do the right thing. Stay safe ya'll.
     
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