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Damn!!Can we all stop feeling sorry for ourselves..Defense baby!!!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Oct 10, 2017.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is football for crying out loud, a bunch of folks with all all doom and glom attitude about the offense and team, hell you remember the raven team who won the Super Bowl??? with Trent differ and an offense that didn't score a Td for 5 weeks strait..???..yeah won the friggin Super Bowl??

    Please..go get some cheese with that wine if your gonna keep it going..

    I love Defense..and we might have a real good one here, so instead of having a pity party for ourselves, how bout we man up, like what our defense is doing and try to help the team amidst all these damn distractions.... how bout we listen to our standout late round steal..

    “We need energy,” Godchaux said. “We feed off that energy. We need the fans in the stands. I’m trying to get them hyped. We all need to be hyped.”

    God is talking to you..

    if this doesn't get you hyped, I don't know what to tell ya..

    https://twitter.com/WingfieldNFL

    there is 20 gifs of a dominant defense...check'em out, come back and lets talk about how good we can be..How maybe this defense can keep us in games until we figure some sh## out..
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2017
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Also worth pointing out that 2017 might turn out to be a pretty good draft for us.. which was mostly on defense. Harris, Tankersley, Godchaux all showing they're probably not busts at the very least and might turn into long term starters (we'll see.. it's still early). And that's after the Raekwon injury which reduced the potential production from draft picks this year.

    Timmons also showing the FO might not be that bad. Again though.. it's early so we'll see, but news is good on defense so far. If they perform well against Atlanta I think we can say it's for real and not just due to who we played.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    in your opinion C-brad...do dominant defenses have a better chance to win then vice versa.?
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think a good way to see the effect of having better or worse offenses or defenses is to look at how win% is best predicted by offensive and defensive rankings (by points) across NFL history (1966-2016):
    [​IMG]

    That equation is the summary: Win Percentage (WP) = 95.5 -1.66*Offensive Rank (OR) -1.44*Defensive Rank (DR).

    First thing to note: each improvement in defensive rank increases win% by 1.44% while each improvement in offensive rank increases win% by 1.66%. That means that across NFL history offensive rank is more important than defensive rank because win% goes down more for each rank you lose on offense compared to defense.

    You can plug in our current ranks and see it doesn't bode well. We are #4 in defense but #32 in offense. That comes out historically to a 36.6% win rate.

    As to the question of how important a dominant defense is.. that graph actually shows you shouldn't separate defenses or offenses into "dominant" vs. "average" vs. "bad" or so because it's a continuum that's fit well by a plane (i.e. a line along either offense only or defense only.. which makes a plane in 2D space).

    So how good does the offense have to be for us to be likely to get into the playoffs, given our current defensive rank? In recent years these are the best-fitting normal distributions to teams that made the playoffs vs. those that missed it:
    [​IMG]

    You need just above 9.15 wins, or 57.2% win% to be more likely to make the playoffs than to miss it. Using that equation from the first graph you'll see that means our offense has to be ranked 19th by points scored with this defense in order to make the playoffs.
     
  5. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    I like that post above, nice job. Right now we are averaging 8.5 pts. a game from our offense I believe. I won't bother looking it up but I would think we would need more than double that to climb into the top 20 in the current NFL. Also, our defense is fairly thin, like many positions on this team, so we would also need to control the clock and TOP better than we did last year. Are we holding onto the ball enough to protect our defenders from injuries this year? I haven't kept track but our time of possession must be at least somewhat improved over last year.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    After the Titans game we are now at 10.2 ppg on offense. We need to get to 19.8 ppg to get into top 20.
     
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  7. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  8. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Kiko and reshad best at their positions for a week..

    ''ooooooofense...come out and plaaaaaaaaaaaay''
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    have to remember as far as stats, 30 teams have played one more game...I know we still suck on O.

    WHO CARES!!! think about this...

    Hopefully Hayes and Timmons will want to be dolphins next year, we load up on offense during the offseason like we did on D..we get ourselves a stud Tight end, two studley interior lineman, developmental qb with hi level talent.
     
  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Don't forget Vincent Taylor
     
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  12. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    Which game was it that folks were calling for Burke's head? Haha

    I kid. Now, the offense......
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And William Hayes.
     
  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This Travis wingfield dude does some outstanding work on our team...someone needs to recruit him to be a beat writer for us..
     
  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    A huge improvement over Omar.
     
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  16. ChrisKo

    ChrisKo Season Ticket Holder

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    Desert
    Travis is too big time to come slum with his old friends.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I hope that everyone who reads this , who is a true dolphin fan will follow him on twitter and Insta to help expedite this process of him moving up the ladder..
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    takes time brother...head down...grind...it will come...start threads, speak to us, tell u how you feel about everything.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    people may not post but they do read.
     
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  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like that Suh understands what the falcons like to do..horizontal offense, lots of misdirection..

    we need to stay disciplined early, less aggressive early, keep things in front of us, figure it out then get more aggressive.
     
  22. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    I'm tired and just going by memory but I remember 19 (Chargers game), 6 (Jets game), 0 (Saints game) and 9 (Titans game) by our offense. In 4 games those 34 points would be an 8.5 point average. If you want to count the defensive TD (Reshad Jones I think), you would have 41 points in 4 games for a 10.1 average. I have no idea how you get 10.2 even if you count Jones as an offensive player. So there is a TD and another "mystery point" that either I forgot or you are adding somewhere. Either way, my point was that I think this offense needs a lot more production and now that I reflect on it a bit more I believe that even more so, by another quarter of a point than my original quick estimate. 19.8? Thanks for finding that. Yep, these guys need to come together somehow and find a solution to more than double their output.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    41/4 = 10.25 not 4.1

    In any case you're right "offense" shouldn't include the Reshad Jones TD, but all the stats I'm comparing to didn't make that distinction so I left it in (that is, NFL.com officially lists offensive and defensive ranks and they include points by the defense as "offense" whether we like that or not).

    Oh.. and 34/4 = 8.5 not 8.25

    I think you're tired :smile:
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  24. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    I had serious concerns that there would be a big dropoff in our Cbs and S's from Vance Joseph to Matt Burke. Pre-season made me more concerned. Now, I am relieved to see I was probably wrong... but lets see how the Falcons passing attack does versus Nate Allen.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well, like I said in another post, we are 4-0 on the year if we could have scored 21 in each game (since the opponent's highest score has been 20 so far). Last season, Carolina was 18th in PPG with an average of 21 points, which correlates pretty well with cBrad's chart of us needing to be 19th. Tennessee was 14th last season with 22.0 PPG- New Orleans was 12th with 23.3. So it's a pretty crowded area with around 21.5 being average per season.....we just need to score the league average and we should have a chance to be playoff bound.

    That may sound like a big jump forward since we got blanked twice in the past three weeks, but our two other games were 19 and 16 points. So we're really just looking for one extra TD from the horrible performance last week....that seems fairly doable if the defense can keep up this terrific pace.
     
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  26. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    Yep, I just noticed that too when I reread my post. Just a typo. Not that dividing by 10 is the type of mental math one should brag about. Either way, I was wondering where the 42 points came from - as I said I was tired. I thought it was the Reshad TD but then I was really confused about your 8th point.

    Even without looking at the points, I just don't find that it feels like this is a 10 ppg offense so far, which is kind of sad.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2017
  27. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    We could also say the first few weeks were tough with travel and the hurricane, along with whatever happened with Timmons. However, we failed to score on a horrible defense at the time (New Orleans) so that is even more cause for concern. This offense has to get better. I mean it just kind of would have to improve somehow right? But the problem is we will be getting into tougher opponents now as well. Could be a rough ride unless something big clicks fairly quickly.
     
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  28. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    The Bills and Jags have dominant looking defenses to this point, ours is average at best.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Maybe, but in the end all that matters is points allowed, not how the defense "looks", and we're top 5 even after adjusting for opponent strength (did the calculation here: https://thephins.com/threads/this-defense.91994/#post-2983052).

    Strength of opposition is similar among the teams you listed btw: Dolphins' opposition averages 20.7 ppg, Jags' opposition averages 21.4 ppg, and Bills' opposition averages 21 ppg (all weighted for games played).
     
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  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think that our offense just needs to be able to score like 20 points a game, honestly. That would have drives eating up clock, scoring a couple tds and field goals, allowing the defense to rest, and keeping the other offense off. A dominant defense is certainly a good way to win. Has no one paid attention to the Seahawks formula? Nothing about individual pieces on offense, but if your defense is holding teams to under 20, it's significantly easier for the offense to win a game.
     
  31. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I know I liked seeing Timmons and Mags out there allowing Kiko to play freely.
     
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  32. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    If we score 21 points or more a game from here out and the defense continues to play how they have, we win 10-11 games....problem is without serious improvement on Offense, that aint happening. I really believe all it will take is one good game by cutler to turn things around....he looked good in limited action during the preseason and in game 1 until he got smashed. we come out strong in a game and I think it builds on itself......I just hope it happens soon.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  33. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Usually, if a D carries a team for a stretch then the offense heats up, the D finally slacks off a bit because it's relief to not have to put forth a superhuman effort weekly just to win games. It's sort of a 'your turn' mentality. hope that doesn't happen here!
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This defense is for REAL!!!

    Dolphins win baby! 3-2!
     
  35. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The additions have made this defense night and day. I can't imagine how we would have looked with a hungry McMillan in the middle.
     

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