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Thoughts on the Dolphins Bucks Game

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 19, 2017.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Matt Moore stood tall midfield and let out a bloodcurdling scream that represents everything Dolphin nation has repressed in recent years. Despite the phantom non-safety, the phantom offensive pass interference in the end zone, the phantom holding call on Landry's 40+ yard catch, the phantom 2 yard burst on 4th and 1 that only advanced the ball two feet...despite all of that, Matt Moore stood like a warrior and made a statement- we will not lose this game to crappy officiating and stupid mistakes.

    I'm not sure if you guys noticed or not, but didn't it look like our top-five defense was on display throughout the 2nd half? That's what happens when you believe in your offense and know that you're simply one stop away from victory. You hit harder, run faster and make bigger plays.....like a safety on 3rd and long. Our defense played fantastic down the stretch but we just couldn't overcome that terrible, terrible first half.

    Folks, I wish the best for Jay Cutler and all, but imagine what the score would have been if Matt Moore had played four quarters today. The difference in the offense on the field is night and day. I realize that one pick was on Parker, not Cutler, and I also realize that Landry fumbled (which he more than made up for), but the tempo just isn't there with Cutler on the field.

    And those ridiculous penalties and blown ref calls in the second half? It was disgusting, but that's also what happens when your line can't stop jumping off-sides and holding people. Once it happens a few time, the refs are looking for it and you sometimes get bad calls. We lost five points to imaginary penalties today and normally I'd be screaming bloody murder, but that's what happens when you turn the refs against you.

    It's not the Dolphins fault they lost, but it really is at the same time.

    I'm not even going to bother talking about the first half because there just isn't anything to say- our team looked flat out bad. No tempo, no energy and I get it- why get fired up when your team has almost no chance of scoring? It was really night and day once Moore took over though and at least that gives us something to look forward to for these last six games- an offense that can compete with Moore at the helm.

    I was also impressed with our young corners in the 2nd half since they played man most of the way. For those who say Miami can't generate pressure in 2017...well, you saw what happens when we bring more than four. Fitzpatrick was running for his life out there and I miss seeing that type of playstyle. You don't call blitzes when you're down by 2-3 scores though, which is why we've been so conservative lately.

    I have been against all the silly "fire the coach" talk all season, but I may be hopping on that bandwagon next week if we see Cutler start. I mean, Gase was calling MUCH MORE aggressive plays with Moore on the field......how can you possibly go back to the guy that can't even run your base-level offense?

    Despite this ugly, embarrassing loss where we actually won the game (that's twice now with the Raiders game), I am actually more confident heading into our last six games than I have been all year. With Moore at the helm inspiring everyone around him, we will play some competitive football and surprise a few teams.
     
  2. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Have you forgotten the game that Moore started and played in against the ravens? He was dreadful. The night and day difference on offense that you mentioned, accounted for exactly zero points
     
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  3. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    that game sucked....your right....but almost every game cutler has played has been bad....the team looks better with moore in....Id rather loose with him then watch cutler...and maybe just maybe they put a run together.....might not happen but it isn't happening for sure with cutler
     
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  4. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Moore is at his best coming off the bench. I don't really care to see him over any stretch of time. Inconsistent, and teams that prepare for him are able to counter him well. He's a very good game day backup, he is not a starting QB in this league.

    If we really want to change up QB, go with Fales or Doughty. I don't really see much if any from them, but it's better than Moore.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Let's not forget WHY Moore was put in: Cutler was being evaluated for a concussion. That means we should NOT give Gase any credit for deciding to put Moore in the game.
     
  6. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    The Dolphins played bad, but they totally got reemed by the officials AGAIN
     
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  7. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    Pats just made a 62 yard FG..We are so fffkd
     
  8. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    Your kidding.......right?
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Oh heck, this argument again. Let me try a different approach.

    In Marino's last game as a Dolphin, we lost to the Jaguars 62 to 7. Does that mean Marino is a terrible QB as well? Or is it possible for quarterbacks to occasionally have off days? Considering that Moore's record and QBR is higher than any Dolphin QB in recent memory (including Tannehill), I just can't follow your logic here.
     
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  10. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    That's not a very good analogy. Marinos body of work over 17 years shows that he's not terrible because of the jaguar game. What exactly has Moore accomplished in his career to give him the benefit of the doubt?
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't think Moore is a long-term starter either, but the Ravens game was just one game and most QB's have a dreadful game here or there. Overall, in the Gase era, counting both regular season and playoff games Moore now has a combined passer rating of 92.67. That's pretty good for a backup when the league average for all QB's in 2016 was 87.6.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Moore's overall work, while limited in Miami, shows the best passer rating since Marino. It's a very good analogy because you're taking one game out of 20+ and saying it was typical instead of the exception.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Everyone forgets about Pennington.

    Pennington had an overall 94.5 rating (unadjusted to present day) as a Dolphin, and in 2008 he had a 97.4 for the year that was 2nd best in the NFL among starting QB's. Adjust the ratings to the present day and that 94.5 translates to 101.5. So let's not forget Pennington was the only starting QB we've had since Marino that was clearly one of the best in the league.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I didn't forget about Pennington, although I do the math a little different. The two years Moore has started consecutive games were an 87.1 (2011) and a 105.6 (2016)....2012 to 2016 was a game here or there coming in for relief when someone got hurt. In fact, there are several "stats" for seasons where he was only in for a few plays or a series. I don't count the 27.1 QBR he had in 2013 where he completed a bomb and a short pass out of six throws in two short drives...in a game that was already over. Yet his QBR for 2013 is a 27.1.....which is averaged into your calculations like he played an entire year with a 27 rating. The same goes for 2015 when he had the 118 rating....it was less than a quarter in a comeback win.

    Those tiny stats shouldn't be weighed equally to a season where he started 13 games.
     
  15. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    Where did this idea of a top-five defense come from?

    The opposing passer rating the team is surrendering on the season has been associated with a 4-12 record on average in the league since 2004, and it surrendered a passer rating over 100 again today, to Ryan Fitzpatrick no less.

    The defense has yet to hold a single team this year to a passer rating that makes that team unlikely to win. In other words, the defense hasn’t won a single game this year.
     
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  16. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    This game was more about the refs then anything
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No KeyFin, I'm not averaging yearly ratings. That's the wrong math. If you don't adjust ratings to a reference year, you have to multiply each yearly rating by the number of passing attempts in that year, then sum those numbers, then divide by total attempts across all years. That's what's called a "weighted average".

    If you do that for Moore you get almost exactly 88.7 as a Dolphin compared to 94.5 for Pennington. The problem is those ratings aren't directly comparable because 2008 league averages were different than from 2011-2017. So what you want to do is to FIRST adjust all passer ratings to a reference year (divide by league average for that year and then multiply by league average of the reference year) and THEN take a weighted average.

    For Moore you get almost exactly 92 if you do that. For Pennington it's about 101.5. Statistically there's no comparison: Pennington >> Moore.
     
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  18. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    Pennington was the league MVP runner-up that year. People took notice.
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I was talking about the defense in the 2nd half today- they did play well enough to win despite all the missed calls by the refs. And I was comparing them to the first four weeks this year where we gave up 20 or less each time, which had us in the top five for several key defensive stats.
     
  20. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    The most key defensive statistic of them all (other than points surrendered) is passer rating surrendered, and here's where we are on the season at this point, in order of individual games:

    110.6
    126.3
    104.5
    85.5
    86.4
    108.4
    107.9
    99.3
    120.4
    100.6

    Notice they started the season with three poor games in a row. And again, they have yet to surrender a passer rating that makes an opposing team unlikely to win. The ratings there in the 80s give a team about a 50% shot, and the other ratings there make a team more likely to win than lose. The ones in the 120s make a team far more likely to win than lose.

    The overall rating surrendered on the season is associated with a 4-12 record on average in the league since 2004. That gives you an idea of the power of that statistic. Offensive performances throughout the league during that period can't pull that average to even the 8-8 range, where the average team in the league lies. Pass defenses that function at that poor a level drag teams downward to that degree.

    This is why Drew Brees for example has posted passer ratings over 100 amidst losing seasons. His pass defenses were that bad, and had that much an effect on the team.
     
  21. The Finest

    The Finest Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Let's use a one game sample (an aberration at that) as a representation of a player's ability.

    Matt Moore shouldn't be starting, but unfortunately he gives us the best chance to win
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If you're looking at passer rating surrendered from 2004 using unadjusted ratings, then the stats you point out in these 2 sentences I picked out will be biased when applied to games played today. Specifically, since passer rating has steadily increased, the rating surrendered that would correspond to 50% win% should be higher today than "in the 80's", and the rating we've surrendered so far should also correspond to something better than a 4-12 record.

    An easy way to show this without doing a full analysis using adjusted ratings is to just look at 2014-2016 ratings where no adjustment is needed because league-wide passer rating has remained fairly stable over that time:
    [​IMG]

    W = -0.21*PR + 26.78 is the best-fitting line for yearly passer ratings surrendered from 2014-2016.

    You can solve the equation for W = 8 wins (50% win%) and show that passer rating surrendered must be 89.4, so closer to 90 today than if you use unadjusted ratings from 2004. As for the Dolphins, our combined passer rating surrendered in 2017 is now at 103.1 which when plugged into that equation gives you 5.1 expected wins, so better (marginally) than 4-12.

    But yes, among defensive stats, I do agree that passer rating surrendered is the most important one after points allowed.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2017
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  23. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    Awesome stuff -- thank you.
     
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  24. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    It seems like a lot of the forum is onboard with drafting a QB to replace Tannehill and is starting to turn on Gase.

    Wow, imagine that.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Someone asked me what the comparable stats to post #22 are for passer rating differential, and that's a really good question and a good stat to have as reference, so for anyone interested here's the data:
    [​IMG]

    That equation, W = 0.177*PRD + 8, basically says that if you increase passer rating differential on average per game by 5.65 = 1/(0.177), you can expect to win 1 extra game per season. 5.65 doesn't sound like a lot but it does show how important it is to improve PR on offense or PR surrendered on defense.
     
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  26. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    They could use that graph in statistics classes as an example of a strong, positive, linear relationship.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. one of the most surprising things for me working with football stats is how often you get such linear relationships because that's not true in general for a lot of real-world data. Of course, in principle the relationship to win% can't be linear because there's a ceiling and a floor to win% (so we should really be fitting cumulative Gaussians.. i.e. sigmoidal curves that are linear over a certain range), but yeah.. VERY surprised by how often you get linear relations in football stats.
     
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  28. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Yeah, losing badly does that kind of thing. Imagine that!

    Nope, why would I be? We aren't challenging **** with Moore. Roll the dice.
     
  29. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    You guys really think we didn't get completely hosed by the refs today? Did you watch the same game? I'm proud how Matt fought today and so did the D. They only allowed 3 points in the second half and we had 9 taken away plus a free a kick. We got jobbed by the fantastic system that is NFL referees. They are old and ******ed and the NFL brand as a product, sucks donkey dick right now.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think the refs did a pretty bad job overall, but especially because of that non-safety call. I would really like an explanation on that one from one of the refs because this was after a review so it's not like it was a "mistake" from their perspective.

    Nevertheless, I'm not blaming the refs for this loss or any other. This team has far more serious problems than the refs making mistakes in games.
     
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  31. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    18 or 19 flags 4 of which were phantom calls. 2 took points off with the safety and the pi on Fasano which wasn't there. That's 9. Plus the free kick and then there's the big bomb to Landry where there was no hold. Then Kiko grazes Fitz and gets flagged. This was jobbed dog**** by the refs all day. I'll give you the false starts but damn 19 flags???? I don't think so.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It definitely was bad and WAY beyond normal. Average number of flags per game is 12-13, and nfl.com says we had 17 penalties for 123 yards, with the Bucs having 9 penalties for 82 yards. So that's TWICE the average number of penalties per game!
     
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  33. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    Just by way of contrast, the Patriots were called for only two penalties today.
     
  34. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion the season is over. Jay Cutler was a failed attempt at salvaging the season. Truth is, the **** hit the fan when Tannehill got hurt again. I'm ready to see what the youngsters can do, mainly Doughty.
     
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  35. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Thank God we got rid of Ajayi. Right, guys?
     
  36. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, ajayi is having another great game today just broke off another huge run.

    Sucks for us that we got rid of him, but it was great for him. He now has a line that can open holes for him and he has a real shot at the super bowl this season.
     
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  37. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    Two words for you. Adam Gase. That is all.
     
  38. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    If only somebody had warned us since the very beginning about him.
     
  39. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Happy to see that Moore got a chance to show out after that tumultuous game vs. Baltimore. Would've hated for that game (on a short week and terrible gameplan) to be his last.
     
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  40. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Im ok with keeping RT,but drafting one very early for two reasons:
    Injury and future salary. In 2019 alone, there is a $19M cap savings to cut him, and $15M to cut Suh. Miami, realistically could save $15M in 2018 by cutting Tannehill. It depends on the direction of the team and that goes hand in hand if Gase is retained. As for Gase, I'm actually ok with his on-the-job experience as a HC, but I don't think him having final say on the 53 and calling plays is sustainable. And if this doesn't change, yes we should fire him.
     

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