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Thoughts on the Dolphins Broncos Game

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 3, 2017.

  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You contradict yourself.

    I wrote:

    "So you're implying that he would have had a 30 passer rating if the Dolphins defense had not of taken the field?

    Of course the defense was the reason his passer rating was so low. It's crazy to think otherwise.

    However, I don't think this game was some jump in play by the Dolphins defense. Although, maybe they can get back to their first 5-6 games of the season form and this was the start of that."


    Then you wrote:

    What tells you it wasn't simply Siemian's ineptitude?

    If a middle school quarterback took the field and achieved a passer rating of 10, would it be because of the Dolphins' defense (which prior to yesterday's game had played extremely poorly), or his own ineptitude?


    Then you wrote the post I just replied too. make up your mind and be consistent.
     
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  2. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Oh the irony.

    "You're"
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    League average passer rating last few years is between 87.1 and 88.4 (was 87.6 in 2016). Standard deviation is approximately 10-12 depending on year, so that means Siemian on average plays at about the bottom ~22 percentile level (so 78% of NFL starting QB's will on average play better than him).

    As far as whether this was mostly Siemian playing bad or the Dolphins defense playing good, who knows but I think there's good evidence it was both because Siemian's average PR is 80, his standard deviation is 28, and a 30.5 means that you'd expect 3.85% of his passer ratings across games to be that bad or worse. That's below that 5% threshold statisticians use to claim it's evidence his performance wasn't just due to random variation.

    I'm sure he's played poorly in the past, and I'm sure he's faced defenses that played well. Maybe this was just a perfect storm of sorts where both occurred.

    btw.. in terms of what was most responsible for the 30.5 passer rating, Siemian lost 30.5 passer rating point (this is a different "30.5") from having 3 INT's in 41 passing attempts. So without those INT's Siemian would have had a 61 rating. So 19 passer rating points (to make his average of 80) was due to the low completion percentage (46.4% relative to his average of 59.2%) and the low Y/A (4.88 relative to his average of 6.8).

    So most of the hit he took in passer rating was due to the 3 INT's, and I think those were due to both poor play by Siemian as well as the defense playing well.
     
  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I love these types of replies. In order to see how often a person is online you must also be online. lol...

    "Dolt".....bwhahha
     
  5. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Melvin Gordon or Marcus Peters (2 players I openly wanted on these forums) got drafted after Parker... smh... that’s what we could of had... but instead we got DeVante “Where is he?” Parker...
     
  6. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Ajayi has accomplished more. Drake has been inconsistent too. The guy has one excellent rushing game against a gassed team with zero offense and you wanna talk him up.
     
  7. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I care about the rushing game in particular when it comes to running backs. Drake has had one excellent rushing game. A couple of good ones and a few very poor ones.

    He hasn’t accomplished anything close to what Ajayi has done rushing-wise.
     
  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is Ajayi's 2016 season in a nutshell.
     
  9. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    There is an even more unlikely prospect that the Dolphins' pass defense -- which prior to the Denver game had surrendered an opponents' passer rating of 105.7, with no single opponent's passer rating on the season having been lower than the mid-80s -- caused a QB's passer rating to plummet from Siemian's expected range to 30.5.

    So if you're statistically assigning weight to Siemian versus the Dolphins' pass defense, more weight should be given to Siemian.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's funny seeing you arguing with a poster who's username literally says they're playing the shame game with #13. Shame on you for not recognising that you're being shamed in the shame game.
     
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  11. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    More about passer ratings like the one we saw from Trevor Siemian Sunday.

    Between 2004 and 2016, 3,328 games were played in the NFL.

    90 of them involved passer ratings between 27 and 33 for one of the two teams, like we saw Sunday (Siemian's was 30.5).

    This happens 2.7% of the time in the league. More generally, passer ratings below 33 occurred in 221 of the 3,328 games (6.6%), also a fairly rare event.

    Only 6 of those 90 teams with passer ratings between 27 and 33 won the game. In those 6 wins, the opposing teams' passer ratings averaged 48.9. In the 84 losses by such teams, the average opponent's passer rating was 92.

    In other words, a team can win with a passer rating between 27 and 33 only if the opposing team's passer rating isn't much better.

    The average margin of victory for the teams with passer ratings between 27 and 33 was 6.3 points, less than a touchdown.

    In the 84 losses by teams with passer ratings between 27 and 33, the average margin of defeat was 18.7 points, a margin of defeat that's uncommon in the NFL. 35 of those 84 losses (42%) were by three scores or more (17+ points).

    26 of the 84 losses (31%) were by 26 points or more, like Denver's loss on Sunday.

    So the take-home message here is that Denver was far more likely to be blown out than it was to win Sunday.

    And if you attribute the nature of that loss much more to Trevor Siemian than to the Dolphins' defense, as I do, then it may be as difficult for you, as it is me, to feel any better about the Dolphins than you did last week.

    Again, the Dolphins' pass defense came into the game surrendering an opponents' passer rating of 105.7 on the season, with no single opponent's passer rating below the mid-80s. I find it highly unlikely it was more responsible for Trevor Siemian's extremely poor outing than Siemian himself.
     
  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok.

    With Ajayi this season:
    The entire rushing offense averaged 3.18/ypc and 0 TDs a game

    Without Ajayi this season:
    The entire rushing offense averaged 4.67/ypc and .5 TDs a game

    There is no question, on any level the rushing offense VASTLY improved after Ajayi.
     
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    So wait a second- our team sucks if they lose, but the other team sucks if we win? It sounds to me like you're going to say we suck no matter what happens- which begs the question why you even bother watching to begin with.
     
  14. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Oh come on. When he was given an opportunity he had a Pro Bowl season. How much is Gase paying you?
     
  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    He had a pro bowl season with a couple of great games, a couple of good games, and a few bad games.
     
  16. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Ajayi had many more rushing attempts than any other RB and was the only threat defenses honed in on. His YPC has already rebounded.
     
  17. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    When I said a couple I meant literally two. When I said a few I meant three. When I said excellent I meant one. You’re just talking **** and being facetious.

    If you wanna compare the multiple 200 yard games to the single 120 yard game, fine. When has Ajayi rushed for 0.6 YPC on 7 attempts?
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I literally just proved to you that the rushing game was much worse with him.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. first of all good job in pointing this out!

    Problem is.. for the question of estimating which had more influence I'd prefer not to make an argument just using these distributions. We need a stat that more or less directly addresses the question.

    For example, which is a better predictor of passer rating in a given game: a QB's average rating up to that point, or the average rating given up by the defense up to that point? I can't readily do that kind of analysis with the way stats are formatted in pro-football-reference (wish I could!) but that would directly test which of QB vs. defense is more responsible for the observed variance in each distribution, and by how much.

    Couple that with the distributions we have and then I'd be more comfortable saying which was more likely influential. So yes I agree that if you ONLY use these two distributions you can make the claim you're making (it's just Bayesian inference), but QB's influence the defense and vice versa, and if it turns out that the defense is primarily responsible for the variation in passer rating, then the conclusion will be different.
     
  20. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Much worse? I mean if you’re okay with fewer attempts and lower rushing totals in exchange for higher YPC then yeah, it’s better.

    We never should’ve had Ajayi if rushing totals and attempts don’t count. Let’s just get a bunch of Drakes to rush 7-10 times per game.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I won't engage in the ridiculousness of proving that one of the best defensive performance of the year from any team had nothing to do with the defense or the defensive players on the field. But if you want to search for actual proof, start with factors such as-

    - Time of possession
    - Average starting field position
    - Average down/distance on 3rd down
    - The number of pressures/sacks

    Even without seeing the actual tape, the statistics paint the picture of a team playing from behind with horrible field position. If you want to add coaching to this formula, Gase said in his press conference that he sent the front four loose and had the corners playing tight due to the pressure they were generating from blitzing. That's a style we can't play while we're behind and since we've only had the lead at halftime a few times this season, we haven't seen our defense performing like that often. It's obvious that's what we're built for though and it's where we excel.

    You're trying to figure out if it was the QB or our defense that made us so dominant, which is truthfully ignorant. Our offensive time of possession, our punter, and several other things play into that formula as well. What exactly is a QB supposed to do when he's pinned within his 5 yard line, he knows the other team is blitzing, plus he's already given up two safeties, an interception on a tip and a pick six? Because that's where Semian started almost every single one of his drives.

    The answer is not much...you just keep that clock running so you can get off the field.
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Dude...ypc is THE way to judge the running game. I mean c'mon.
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well first of all no one is arguing the defense had nothing to do with it. I also said both influenced the outcome and that I wouldn't try to answer the question of which was more influential at this time, because I don't think the passer rating distributions alone give us enough information (still DHitchens does have a point about the relative likelihoods given ONLY those distributions).

    So before calling someone ignorant you should make sure you're not setting up a strawman argument.

    Secondly, the stats you suggest looking at paint a mixed picture because Denver has been at or near the bottom in sacks given up and average starting field position, which if anything would suggest what we saw was more on the offense, while they've been just about average in time of possession, suggesting it was more the defense (yesterday was real bad in ToP).

    Point is.. there's evidence both were influential. Not sure anyone can really make a good case it was mostly one or the other.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Keep in mind that the difference in rushing attempts between winning and losing teams is mostly due to number of attempts in the 4th quarter by the winning team. This suggests that rushing attempts isn't much of a causal factor and is instead just due to the team leading in the 4th trying to run out the clock.

    So you really shouldn't evaluate running backs by rushing attempts.

    Yards per carry is fine, and yards per game is OK too (YPG matters because otherwise you'll be comparing to RB's that only carry a few times a game), but I wouldn't make an argument using rushing attempts.
     
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  25. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Weeks 2 and 7 vs the jets 1.5 and 2.2 ypc
    Week 8 vs baltimore 1.8 ypc

    Last year:
    Week 2 @ Pats 2.8 ypc
    Week 12 vs SF 2.5 ypc
    Week 14 vs arizona 2.4 ypc
    Week 15 @ Jets 2.7

    And if you really want to beat it...week 17 of 2015 7 carries 2 yards 0.3 ypc
     
  26. DHitchens

    DHitchens Active Member

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    It has everything to do with the nature of the win or the loss and who it was against, and far less to do with whether the game resulted in a win or loss.

    Think about it this way -- would you rather lose by a point at New England in a game that, by its nature, makes it appear the Dolphins have talent roughly equal to New England's, or would you rather blow Denver out and then get blown out by New England, in a game that by its nature makes it appear New England is light years better than the Dolphins?

    (The latter of those two possibilities is very likely to happen next week, by the way.)

    This is essentially how these top college teams are being selected for the CFP. If it were all about wins and losses alone, the University of Central Florida -- the only undefeated team in the top 25 -- would be the number-one seed.

    Who have you beaten, and how -- not just did you win or lose.
     
  27. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not true, you get a 5th year option on 1st rounders just like we do next year on James.
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you completely. And just to be clear, I wasn't calling you ignorant- I was saying that the theory of Miami only looked good because the other team played so bad was the ignorant part.

    Denver had two first-time starters on the right side of the line so it was fairly obvious that they were going to have a rough day. But trying to take ALL THE CREDIT away from Miami? That is surely ignorant. If we suck as bad as the other person implied, then wouldn't it have been an even match-up in the trenches?

    There's simply no getting around that Miami's defense played better than Denver's offense. To even debate such a thing is silly.
     
  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, but you're assuming that I'm making an argument for the Dolphins to be the best team in the league...clearly I'm not. I'm not comparing this to college either because their ratings have been flawed my entire life- you can't rank 200+ teams without head to head matchups. It's impossible.

    When it comes to your hypothesis, I don't have a "would you rather" scenario. I want the team to play up to their potential and beyond it at times regardless of who the opponent is. Because if we base everything off of beating New England, then guess what....31 teams in this league suck. And if we're going to say that, then there's no sense in watching the NFL anymore- let's just call NE the eternal champs and move onto a different sport.

    Additionally, I don't think we're going to get blown out by New England anyway. Our team has played a lot better over the past two weeks in virtually all aspects of the game, and we're 3-1 against NE at home over the past 4 years. The odds aren't in our favor by any means but if we come out and attack like we just did, I think we have a fighting chance. That's all I hope for in any week...for us to show up and play with enough heart to make the game competitive.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
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  30. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Amazes me that from 2015 to game 7 of 2017, roughly 2.5 seasons, Ajayi had exactly 6 good games out of 40.

    Drake has started 1 game, yet he has 3 TDs to Ajayi's 1, and Drake already has almost half as many yards as Ajayi.

    The things you learn here - Cutler is misunderstood, Moore has been asked to do the impossible, Parker is a bust, Drake doesn't count, and Ajayi is all-world.

    Enjoy. lol...
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2017
  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I could add a few......ahhhhhh never mind, have at it.
     
  32. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    What I’m saying is the guy gets a very low amount of rushing attempts. It’s easy to say, “See! He averaged 11 YPC,” when he ran 7 times.
     
  33. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, well Drake also got -3 on one attempt but I’m not cherry picking. If we look at the full resumé, it’s not even close.

    One guy has a higher YPC for a portion of a single season on very few attempts. The other had a Pro Bowl season.
     
  34. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Obviously YPC matters but not when the guy rushes 6, 7 or 9 times in game...

    He just had a 23 carry game against a gassed defense whose offense was non existent and turned the ball over several times.
     
  35. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One guy is a bad teammate, cursed out his coach, didn’t want to learn the offense, couldn’t blitz pickup complained like crazy and the other actually tries to pick up blitzes and isn’t bad at it, is a big threat out of the backfield and isn’t a baby. The first one is Ajayi who oh by the way has a degenerative knee condition
     
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  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I have no idea how to explain how wrong you have this without violating TOS. I mean honestly, you couldn't be more wrong if you were a ref of a Pats game.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Oh.. well that's not a problem with YPC because you're interested in YPC across many games, not during one game. So you'd have to ask whether the 46 carries for Williams and 65 for Drake are enough to compare to Ajayi's 138 carries for the Dolphins, and I think they probably are individually but certainly combined it's comparable (I say "probably" only because I don't know how many carries you need for YPC to become a reliable stat). If anything, the problem would be Ajayi's 29 carries with the Eagles being compared to his 138 with the Dolphins.

    The bigger issue with YPC is whether you report the mean or the median because the median is insensitive to huge runs. Either way, let me just list some stats here for reference. All stats are ONLY for the 2017 season:

    YPC (using the mean):
    Ajayi with Dolphins = 3.3
    Ajayi with Eagles = 7.9
    Williams = 3.9
    Drake = 4.9
    Williams + Drake = 4.5

    So if you use the mean it's pretty clear we're better off without Ajayi. Now look at the median:

    YPC (using the median):
    Ajayi with Dolphins = 3
    Ajayi with Eagles = 3
    Williams = 2
    Drake = 3
    Williams + Drake = 2

    So using the median, one could argue we're worse off without Ajayi.

    Finally, you can look at rushing YPG. There it's pretty clear so far:
    YPG while Ajayi was here: 76.4
    YPG after Ajayi trade: 96.2

    I'll point out that if you compare the set of games with Ajayi to those without there's nothing statistically significant about the difference (yet), but 96.2 is still a lot more than 76.4. Anyway, I'm not taking sides but those are the stats, and there's no problem with YPC as a stat because it's not "per game" but "across games" (or at least that's what should be reported lol).
     
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  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    PFF doesn’t fo PR allowed by team but you can find it on the web.
    https://thephins.com/threads/building-a-winning-team.91138/
    From that thread:
    SD of PR made by offenses is 12.04
    SD of PR allowed by defenses is 9.01
    So the variance is more likely explainable by variations by the offense as a whole, Including the QB, rather than by the defense.
     
  39. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The other problem with YPC is that it is sensitive to the team situation and pass/rush ratio.
    As an example Lamar Miller averaged something like 5.0 YPC with us, under BIll Lazors pass wacky scheme, but averages something like 4.0 YPC in Houston under a more balanced scheme. Most of the difference in YPCis explainable by the difference in rushing percentages.
     
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  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm getting my stats from here:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/opp.htm

    That second link has PR allowed for each team. Not sure if you meant 2016 but standard deviation for team PR in 2016 was 11.23 and standard deviation for PR allowed was 7.56. Here's the graph for all of NFL history (raw stats.. without adjusting PR to any reference year):
    [​IMG]
    As far as the interpretation, what this directly means is that there is greater variability in strength of offenses compared to defenses (so on average, the best offenses are much better compared to the worse offenses than the best defenses are to the worst defenses).

    This doesn't tell you which unit is more influential in determining passer rating. It could be either and still produce the discrepancy. I think the only way you can really get at it statistically is to do what I suggested: on a game-by-game basis, which predicts passer rating better, the QB's prior average passer rating or that of the defense.

    Oh.. and the logic is going in the wrong direction anyway. Variances add, meaning that the game-by-game variance is the sum of the variances in "across-team" variance and the "within-team" variance. "across-team" variance is what's in those links, and if the defense has smaller across-team variance then it must have larger within-team variance, meaning that on a game-by-game basis the same defense in 2016 varied on average more than the offense.

    So the logic is really the other way around if you wanted to just use variances because we're asking if an abnormal performance by our defense (i.e. relative to its own mean) was more responsible, etc... But as stated, all this obscures underlying causal factors so you really have to more directly test which is more influential.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2017
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