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Thoughts on the Dolphins Pats Part Duex

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 12, 2017.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You may remember two weeks ago in a crushing loss in New England that I mentioned seeing a different team in that second quarter- a team that was ready to go on a 5 to 6 game run. And if you look back, you might also see where I said last week that the stars were aligning for us to beat the living **** out of New England on Monday night.

    I'm not usually an "I told you so" kind of guy, but we just embarrassed the Patriots on national television. It was one of Brady's worst games EVER as a pro due to the unrelenting pressure and a Mr. Xavien Howard (which I also happened to talk about last week). Zip for 13 on 3rd down? Are you freaking kidding me? This may have been one of the Dolphins most dominant games this decade.

    So yeah, this is the one exception to my humbleness.....I FREAKING TOLD YOU SO DOLPHIN FANS! HECK YES WE SPANKED THE FREAKING PATS!

    There were so many great moments tonight- Brady actually looked scared at times in the pocket and it was impossible for him to find his rhythm. Down the stretch I almost felt sorry for him, but then I just laughed like mad and rooted for Suh to crush him again. By the 4th quarter, Brady's entire left arm was a bruise from wrist to elbow....it was freaking beautiful.

    And our boy Ajayi...how bad are we missing him right about now? Drake was fantastic. Cutler was fantastic. I could literally go on and on because this team has found their identity and playing awfully darn hot. I guarantee you that the Pats are now watching the playoff brackets for two reasons- first, they're desperate to catch Pitt...and second, they're even more desperate for somebody to knock us out of this playoff race. They certainly don't want us again in week 18...I can promise you that.

    There were some mistakes by our team tonight but you know what...now's not the time to talk about that. We did great knocking out the dumb penalties tonight, all aspects played hard and the scoreboard definitely didn't show what really happened on the field. Our boys really played perfect...hats off to them fellas.

    Oh, and one more thing- it really sucks that we beat the **** out of the Pats tonight and lost our "sweet" draft position, right? LMFAO!

    Three more wins to "maybe" making the playoffs Dolphin fans. It's probably not enough, but let's hop on that J-Train anyway now that the darn thing is finally chugging forward. Great game, my friends! Go Fins!
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2017
  2. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That was awesome! First time since 1991! Defense crushed it.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Regarding playoffs.. if we win out we don't need to worry about Buffalo, so only Tennessee (8-5), Baltimore (7-6), and either San Diego (7-6) or KC (7-6) are in our way.

    San Diego and KC play each other, so that takes care of that. Baltimore has an easy schedule against Cleveland, Indy and Cinci and they need to lose one of those. Tennessee has a tough schedule against the 49ers, Rams and Jacksonville and they need to lose two.

    Point is.. there's a small but decent chance EITHER Baltimore loses at least 1 more OR Tennessee loses at least 2 more, so it's not over yet!
     
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  4. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    On missed block by Pouncy or one drop by Drake or one run by Cutler for this game to not even be close.
     
  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    But I thought gase lost the lockerroom
     
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  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I did not see the last two weeks coming.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, we still have a fair chance if we win 3 in a row and Baltimore drops another game. You're the stats guy but I'd guess we have maybe a 15-20% chance with those variables? We still need to worry about LA as well....there's so many moving parts to us even having a chance. So I'm just hoping for a 2-1 or better finish and I'll be happy regardless- playoffs or not.

    I can't stop thinking about the two games we lost with game-changing phantom penalties over the past month....just giving us that Raiders win would change a whole lot.
     
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  8. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    I’m looking forward to less this team sucks trade everyone and fire all the coaches.....at least for a week or so. If we were to win out and somehow make the playoffs i think they could make some noise.......I wouldn’t bet much on them even making the playoffs but this win makes that not sting so much.
     
  9. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I will give it to gase. It may take him awhile to get everyone on the same page but eventually he gets them playing. Hopefully next year we are injury free and come out of the gates hungry for blood
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You could just see down the stretch a few weeks back there that our defense was explosive and picking up "frustration" penalties when the chips didn't fall out way. I don't think he ever once lost the locker room this year- this team looks so freaking hungry.
     
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  11. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    BOY WE SURE MISS AJAYI OUT THERE GUYS! JUST A FOURTH!?!?!?! FIRE GASE!

    Seriously though, what a great game. Exciting to see some young guys starting to ramp it up. Howard looked like a bust halfway through, now he looks like an allstar. Hopefully he turned a corner and can be a shut down guy going forward. Drake ... godDAM that spin move in the backfield he put on ... Chung? Then bounce it out and take it 20ish. That was a #1 runner move there. Dude can catch the ball too.

    Grant stepped up on that TD - would be great to see him involved. Landry getting some tough yards and a tough TD. Still not convinced about bringing him back for premium $$$. OL played very well. Parker ... mostly invisible, still disappointing that he can't turn it around and dominate. But still, great win.

    Seeing Tom Brady sulking and frustrated will never, ever get old.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Hey.. just realized we play KC so we actually don't have to worry about LA because we'll have conference tie breaker with KC if we win out and are in a 3-way tie with them!

    Anyway, probability of us winning all three is basically (1/2)^3 = 12.5% if we assume it's a coin toss. Probability Baltimore wins at most 1 out of 3 is exactly 50%, so multiply those together and I think a decent estimate for us making the playoffs through a 3-way tie with Baltimore and either KC or SD is about 6.25%.


    EDIT: I calculated the wrong thing: "Baltimore wins at most 1 out of 3" lol.. like that matters haha.

    OK, just to do this right.. if we assume games are coin tosses, the probability Baltimore loses any 1 out of 3 remaining games = 3*(1/2)^2 = 0.375 or 37.5% and the probability Tennessee loses any 2 out of 3 remaining games is also 0.375 or 37.5%. So the probability one OR the other happens is 0.375 + 0.375 - (0.375)^2 = 0.61 or 61%. Multiply 12.5% by 61% (as opposed to 50%) and you get a rough estimate of 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. Well.. the brain fart at least got you in the right range haha.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2017
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  13. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I don't see the Ravens losing a game the rest of the way. If we win out and have young players like Drake and Howard playing well? We are in better shape for 2018 than if we had the #10 pick versus having #20.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, so it sounds like we are definitely still in this IF we win three, plus Baltimore, LA and Oakland loses at least one. I'm certainly not counting on it but heck, were we talking playoffs three weeks ago? It's exciting to even start getting back into this conversation.
     
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  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Cincy will be tough. The other two are cakewalks
     
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  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Yep. I was 100% all in for a total tank job the year Luck came out. What's the difference in 1, 2 or 3 wins? This year though? It felt different, felt like we needed to make a few statements. Started slow, but now we are seeing what could be. Im not an optimist by nature so I don't see us making the playoffs, but if we can at least split the Bills and give KC a run (or beat them), that will be a good close to the season, especially if the young folk keep stepping up. It really seems like we have struggled to develop our home talent, some encouraging signs that may be changing.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah now that I realize we play KC, it's simple:

    Summary for making playoffs:
    1) We win out
    2) Baltimore loses at least 1 OR Tennessee loses at least 2

    That's it. All other teams will lose in a multi-way tiebreaker with us due to conference record (the one tiny exception is we can't end up in a 2-way tie with Baltimore).
     
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  18. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Dude they got wiped out of the building by the Bears ... they look like a team that has given up and quit on Lewis. Granted, that will be an AFC North division game, but another few stinkers, and an early score by Balt and that game is done.
     
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  19. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    Congrats on kicking the Pats butt tonight. Awesome win for you guys, love watching NE lose.
     
  20. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    This game left me believing that after watching Drake the last 2 weeks get a bulk of carries that there's no reason he can't be a top tier back in this league.
     
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  21. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    Me too Bro. Me too.
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's been a rough season....we really needed that to carry our pride over to 2018. Thanks for stopping by brother, you're always a class act!
     
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  23. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    That is a less complicated path than I thought. The Titans face the Rams and Jaguars, even the rising 9ers could give them trouble. I'm not getting my hopes up, but I was thinking we had a 10% chance, when it is closer to 25%. :)
     
  24. Arodgers12

    Arodgers12 Well-Known Member

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    Brady having his head down was a great moment!
     
  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    ...IF WE WIN THREE. The Bills and Chiefs are no slouches by any means, and it's going to take the effort we've seen in the past two weeks to close the year strong. But if we do manage to win out, then I think someone will open the door for us. Baltimore struggles against everyone but us, so I have faith that they'll help us out.

    And one more thing, the 9ers are pretty hot themselves and feeling like a winning club. I wouldn't count them out against anyone this season.
     
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  26. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    intra division games are always tough. They will want to knock out baltimore
     
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  27. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    The Buffalo game next week, in the past years, is the exact game that has eliminated us in the past. let's hope we defeat demons of the past
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure you said the same thing yesterday as well and mocked anyone who thought we had a chance at winning. You COULD SAY that yes, maybe the Bills beat us because it's happened in the past (not last year....we swept them). Or you could try being a fan and appreciating an amazing performance last night that has the entire league talking.
     
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  29. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    imagine a raiders win and tampa win!!!! that's it, we miss the playoffs now we need entirely too much to happen to make the playoffs.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah but when's the last time you remember us playing like we did yesterday? You know.. possessed.. like the demons you speak of.

    For the first time in a long time, I think I'd be more surprised if the Dolphins disappointed than if they played well. No, I think we beat Buffalo. Doesn't mean it will be easy or a blowout but the way this team is playing last two games you'd be hard pressed to bet against them unless it's another team playing at a high level.
     
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, reverse those two and we're sitting at #6 and 100% in control of our own destiny. It sucks. Like I said though, I just want to see three more good games and let the chips fall where they may.
     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    LOL, like the New England patriots? That's the problem when you physically manhandle the best team in the league- I really think your locker room loses all fear and starts to get a little chip on their shoulder. And you know what? Our boys play pretty darn good football when they have a lot of confidence.

    I'm not "expecting" us to finish 3-0 because we all know anything can happen, but I really think this team has the potential to finish strong and change a lot of opinions. I think Gruden said it best last night when he said we were seeing what everyone thought was the 2017 Dolphins before the hurricane, the RT injury, etc. Our boys just need to own that and keep the momentum flowing...and I like our chances from here on out as well.

    By the way, I heard it was an all-out party in the locker room after the game last night...our boys are not taking this late-season surge lightly. They're on a mission!
     
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  33. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    well If you remember I think it was a couple years ago, when pitt had a 1% chance to make it in they literally needed like 42 things to happen and we lost to buffalo and pitt got in with the last slot, there have been crazier things lol I just don't see it, I could careless if we win one more game, im good just after smacking brady.
     
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  34. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    It was the uni's. it was the csonka, kick, greise, marino offerdahl, taylor, cox, Thomas ghosts making them play for the guys in the past lol combined with it being the patriots the patriots were doomed from the start hahah
     
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  35. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Dream scenario would be Dolphins @ Jaguars wild card weekend.

    It could happen.
     
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  36. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No worries Key. Lose next week and Dirty will be back to the same nonsense of Fire everyone and trade everyone. Wish he could see how knee jerk he is after every game with his hot takes. I am sure he had 20 thread topics ready today if we lost, telling people how right he is about everything. Makes last night's win even more gratifying!!!
     
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  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, me too. If we play three more hard-fought games and come out of this 0-3...I'm really okay with it. We've seen what we need to see to know where we need to build next year. I just feel it in my gut that we're going to get more than that though- these guys are so darn hungry and playing with so much freaking passion...
     
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  38. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I just wonder if and what game we woulda won would it have been to turn it around, maybe beating the pats gave them a lot of confidence and now its just a little too late, had we beat the saints? Carolina? BALTIMORE!!!!! could that have been the turnaround we seen last night earlier in the season?
     
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  39. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    last time we played the jags in the playoffs it didn't end well, marino still has nightmares about it hahahah
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nah.. dream scenario for me is Dolphins @ Pats in a WC game so we can put the beat down on them while their memory is fresh without a bye week in-between.

    It could happen.
     
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