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Thoughts on Dolphins Bills Round One

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 17, 2017.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well Dol-fans, we've heard about the version of Jay Cutler that looks so bad at times, you really wish your franchise would fire him today. And I really thought we saw that version of Smokin' Jay almost six weeks ago.....I now stand corrected. He really seemed like he just didn't give a crap throughout the afternoon.

    Let's start with something good first- we may have to change our team name to the Miami Drakefins if our young RB keeps showing up in all phases of the offense. He is a rare gem and I can't help but wonder what the year would have been like with him starting in game 1. Likewise, Xavien Howard was impressive again today as was TJ McDonald...the two seem to have a nose for the football and find ways to get in favorable positions. McDonald dropped an easy pick-six though that we really could have used today. Great read on that play and getting into position, but man...you have to catch the ball when your offense is struggling.

    Was Jones hurt today though? I honestly don't remember seeing him at all and that's a very rare thing.

    Another positive I noticed- lots of folks point at Wake and his declining stats, but I saw him beat the offensive lineman at least five times today only to be held from behind. While the flags did seem to go our way today, I'm hoping that the refs will glance in Wake's direction at some point in his career....he's still a dominant DE and it has to be frustrating with so many no-calls.

    Now back to Cutler- oh boy. I was thinking that he's a proven cold weather quarterback, but those four or five fumbles proved me wrong. And I can't even count how many passes he had sail this afternoon; he just looked plain bad and uninspired. Even on that final drive he was slowly walking up to the line and taking his time with the snap- he missed Parker, Landry and Stills over and over again. While that one throw to our TE should have been caught for a TD, that throw was off as well around knee-height. There's just no reason to be that inaccurate.

    Usually I'm defending our QB's here saying that the stats really don't tell the story and that's true today as well- about a dozen tosses to Drake is the only thing keeping Cutler's stat line halfway respectable. The deep passes had way too much air under them, the timing throws were off and it was painful to watch. Then he steps up and throws that beautiful rifle pass into double coverage to Landry on 3rd and forever and you think, "Screw you Cutler. Screw you for being so talented and never being able to deliver when it really matters."

    While the defense struggled early to stop the run and the play action, I was fairly impressed with the way they bounced back in the 2nd half and took control. The stage was set for a typical Dolphins last-second win....onside kick and all....but Cutler just wasn't feeling it today. I can't put my finger on it but I watched him on our very first drive and thought, "We have no chance today." Something changed in his mechanics and it certainly wasn't for the better.

    Well folks, I think we can officially stop talking about playoffs since Baltimore won- I think it would take a Christmas miracle at this point for us to get in at 8-8. But if the Jay Cutler we saw today shows up in KC next week, it's going to be even harder to get in at 7-9. I am so freaking glad that we're only two games away from having Ryan Tannehill back on the field...I think that's the biggest takeaway of the day by far.
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2017
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  2. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I think Miami beats Buffalo to keep them out of the playoffs, for whatever that's worth.

    I agree that Drake is BIG positive to take from this season, so that helps. I'm hoping against hope that Parker steps it up next season, but I think any thought of letting Landry go to save money to sign Parker is out the window.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yup, I feel the same way on all of your points (especially beating Buffalo week 17).

    I think Parker did make some strides these past two weeks but he's still not playing as the threat we expected from pre-season hype- today it was tripping about one step before he should be going vertical and hauling in the TD. That throw was actually a pretty good one...and that's maybe the 4th time he's tripped like that with the game on the line? (against NE last year on that final throw, three weeks ago against TB, etc.) Maybe it's a mental thing he has to overcome or maybe it's plain bad luck. It sucks either way though.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Anyone have a theory on why Cutler has so few "average" performances this season, but so many (relatively speaking) "extreme" ones?

    To put some numbers behind this, about 25% of Cutler's career ratings are 70.3 or below, 25% are 101.7 or above, and 50% are in-between (without adjusting to a single reference year for proper comparison.. just trying to get a general sense here). This year, 75% of Cutler's ratings are 70.3 or below or 101.7 or above. I do get it that he actually had a 70.3 and a 101.8 this year (first 2 games) so don't make too much of the specific thresholds, but the point is that so far only about 25% of Cutler's games have been around "average".

    Same thing happened to him in 2010 and 2013 so this isn't in any way "statistically significant". But it is a trend that he has so few "average" performances. Not sure if anyone has a good theory as to why.
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2017
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  5. Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    Drake looks fantastic and clearly fits what Gase likes to do on offense. I don’t usually do this but I’m going to toot my own horn and say it was very obvious at the time of the Ajayi trade that this was what Gase had in mind:

    In hindsight Gase hit a home run by getting rid of Ajayi and getting a 4th for him.
     
  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'd make two guesses-

    1) A lot of receivers had critical drops early this season and Parker has continued to disappoint. I think Cutler gets behind and just says "Screw it", which takes his average game and ends it with a pick late in the 4th that doesn't matter (except to statistics). I can't be sure, but it feels like the 4th or 5th time he's thrown one of those dumb picks with the clock waning. Today was the 1st time it actually mattered though.

    2) Penalties don't show in QB stats but we all know that's what has killed us most of the year- those stupid, stupid pre-snap penalties that turns a 3rd and 3 into a 3rd and long. That let's Cutler to play well while the team is actually anything but- we were leading the league in pre-snap penalties for quite a stretch this season (not sure if we still are or not).
     
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  7. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Parker, at this point, might be trade fodder the beginning of next season (hell, maybe even before). He was a lazy route-running in college and though he has all the physical talent in the world, injuries and his absent mental comeuppance has prevented his development of an NFL receiver.

    Something stinks on defense. I just don't get the late starts- putting the offense in rush mode. Like everyone said, bad Cutler today.
     
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  8. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Overall the Bills are a more talented and better coached team than the Dolphins. With the Bills having six drafts picks in the first three rounds of the next draft, I think they are going to be the real threat to the Patriots in the AFC East in the coming years.

    The Dolphins will likely be fighting the Jets to avoid the cellar in the AFC East for the next several seasons.
     
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  9. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely agree, and to me this falls a lot on the coaching, last game we were ready because it was the second time we played the patriots and the coaches finally did their homework, plus everybody was up to beat the patriots. This game they came out flat and looked unprepared, no fire, lots of sloppy penalties. That's just bad coaching in my opinion. We needed to establish the run in a cold weather game like this and we didn't. Lot's of penalties, third and longs.

    Gase and Burke did not have the team well prepared for this game.

    BTW aside from cutler I think we need to move on from pouncey as well, the guy has been playing terrible all season.
     
  10. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    There was play early in the game it was 3rd and 6 I believe. The defense was set up with DB's off the ball about 7 to 10 yards. I thought that is where I would throw the ball. Sure enough EASY first down completion.
     
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  11. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Kiko totally sucks too. I would game plan to pick on him if I were a OC
     
  12. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Didn't Drake have 10 carries and 54 yards at halftime? I'd say that's doing a pretty decent job of establishing the run. I'm not sure how many passes we'd attempted at that point. Problem was he only ran it 16 times all game. I get it, we were behind, but why we didn't stick with the run is a bit confusing to me. Lorenzo Alexander was on Sirius this morning talking about the game, and he said the same thing. Praised Drake, said he gashed them early, and wasn't sure why they didn't stick with him.

    I didn't get to see a lot of the game, I was spending time with family celebrating my mom's birthday, it was on in the background, but I didn't pay a whole lot of attention. I doubt I'll re-watch it either, but from what I saw of Jay Cutler, he threw this one away. It was obvious he was struggling so why we threw it 48 times is beyond me.

    I'm 100% on board with moving away from Pouncey, as long as there is a plan to replace him and not continue to neglect the interior OL.
     
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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    DONT re-watch it...there's just very little to gain from that. The only things you'll learn are (1) Drake is super talented and (2) our one-year rental at QB has no business in the NFL.
     
  14. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    what was the terms of our rental, a rent to own? small down payment? lol

    due is absolute garbage like hes been for 10 years
     
  15. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    :lol: Yeah, both things I already know.

    The nice thing about this crappy DAZN service we get up here now as the only real option to get all NFL games is that I can watch condensed versions. I'd likely be able to watch the whole thing in about 45 minutes I think. I think they even give me the option to just watch the offense. It'll be pointless, but at least it won't waste a lot of time. I'll still probably find some enjoyment out of seeing some of the other players/plays. Plus, be interesting to see just how different things will look when we play them again in two weeks.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Oh, okay...that's like the "NFL Shorts" where they strip out all the time between snaps. I've watched a few games like that and it's actually pretty enjoyable.
     
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  17. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    You mean Gase, the head coach who convinced the front office to pay Cutler $10 million dollars
    to come in and lead the Dolphins to the same mediocre season they could have had with Matt Moore as the starting QB.

    The reality is that the Bills are already a more talented team than the Dolphins and their addition of 6 rookies in the first three rounds of next years draft is only going to continue to separate them from the Dolphins in future years.
     
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  18. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is the worst reply I have ever seen.
     
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  19. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    No, you are nitpicking game management decisions, from a gameplan and motivational standpoint, his team was a lot better prepared. Overall the bills have had a lot better season even though they don't have as much talent as the dolphins. McDermott has proven himself the better coach, at least as far as this season is concerned, he has done a better job.
     
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Okay, but who do you sign INSTEAD of Cutler at the start of 2017? Anytime I bring this up, it's crickets.

    And I agree about starting Moore- I'm the biggest Moore homer here. But then you need a competent backup since Moore won't last 16 games....which we found out three weeks ago. So who do you have on the field to replace Moore? I don't think there was a better option than Cutler in terms of talent and day 1 starting. I liked Romo, I liked Kaep...but Cutler sadly was the right choice.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2017
  21. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill will be QB and Doughty the backup.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    For next year, that's quite possible. I meant what do you do in 2017 when you're 2 weeks away from kickoff and you need a QB1? It's easy to second-guess in hindsight and say everyone sucks because the team has struggled, but Gase had to make an immediate decision and there weren't any better options out there.
     
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  23. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That is a good point. It is just my emotional self who wants to believe that Brandon Doughty would step up and does not want to see either Culter or Moore behind the center as a Dolphin again.

    If you look up the definition of Fans Overestimate Back Up Quarterbacks you see a picture of Moore. If you look up Quarterbacks Who Have The Talent Yet Will Continue To Disappoint You, you see a picture of Cutler.
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Well, Gase sees enough in him to keep him around for one more offseason. I will not completely write him off. or maybe he is just a really good scout team QB. Which is possible.
     
  25. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I think going with Moore and Doughty as the backup was a better option. I can't say Moore was better or worse then Cutler. They seem to be about even actually. I'd rather have kept the 10 million.
     
  26. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    You obviously did not watch the pre season. Try to find some and watch. You continue to want to bash him yet for some reason yet the Dolphins have kept him around and even while Foles is on the team. So they have 4 QB's. You don't do that unless you believe in Doughty.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2017
  27. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    This offense that they are running now is taylor made for Doughty. You want an accurate passer and he is that.

    Those horrible throws Cutler made I believe Doughty completes those.

    This offense is also designed for Tannehill as well.
     
  28. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ya i have a theory on that actually...

    Some people/players just dont have an in between level. Its no different then any other job after all...ive seen employees that look like all stars one day and the next day youre like "is this the same person?" They either play great or terrible. They play up to or down to the opponent. Theres probably a mental reason for it but I've no idea what that could be other then maybe disliking one team or player more then another. Motivation is after all, a variable. Its only as consistent as the person running the show.
     
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  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Cutler's had that in-between level in many other years. For example when he was with Gase in 2015, 10 out of 16 ratings (62.5% instead of 25%) were above 70.3 or below 101.7. So the question is specifically about 2017.

    And to reiterate, that 25% is consistent with "random variation" from year to year so none of these numbers are "statistically significant". But "random variation" just means you don't know the cause-effect relationship, not that there isn't one (technically: cause for the variance.. not necessarily a physical cause).
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2017
  30. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think the entire team has been extreme this season.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Shouldn't be a surprise, but I had to look at the stats to see how this season compares to past ones lol..

    For defense it looks like the distribution isn't extreme. From 2007-2017 you'll find that 25% of all points we've allowed in a game are 15 points or below, and 25% of all points we've allowed in a game are 29 points or above. This year we gave up between 16 and 28 points in 8 out of 14 games, so 57% which is a bit more than the expected 50%.

    Running game is harder to compare because our mean rushing yards per game has varied so much over that period. Actually, just pointing out what that mean is tells you how to characterize our rushing game compared to past years. 2017 is the first year where we have less than 90 YPG rushing. Right now it's at 88.3. And the standard deviation is also by far the lowest since 2007 at 34.6, which is partly due to the low average, but also shows there aren't too many extremes. All other years the standard deviation was between 40-70, with it being the highest in 2016 at 69.8 because of all those 200+ yard runs.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2017
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