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Scenario Question - First Round QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 2, 2018.

  1. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Take Lamar Jackson.

    Our offensive line stinks and offensive playcalling stinks. Lamar Jackson's speed and improvisation can help counter the stank. If he's gone, get Mayfield.
     
  2. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    As a developmental guy, sure you could argue he’s worth a lottery ticket 6th/7th round pick. You might be able to make him in to a decent backup after a year or two on the PS. Arm strength, arm angle during release, style of play and lack of ability to go past the second read are issues for me. I’m not a fan of dual threat QBs. The ball travels faster then your feet so running from a qb should only be done when there is no other option imo. His arm angle is almost a 3/4 release like a pitcher and it’s not a natural release, almost like he pushes the ball. Coming from a zone read system he will need time to adapt to a more pro style system. In the end, I’m rather indifferent.
     
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  3. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jackson needs to stay another year and work on his ability to play from the pocket, accuracy, ball placement and reads. I need to see more of that before I’m ready to give him a top 50 grade. He’s exciting right now but that doesn’t get you wins in the NFL, it gets you injured. He’s not a physical runner a la a Cam Newton, he’s more Vince Young right now and that’s not a good thing. I actually genuinely like him, in his interviews he comes off a humble and appreciative, but he’s not ready yet imo.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I noticed that too...he has a strange release but appears to be pretty accurate with it. The arm strength looked good to me but I really don't know what I'm talking about when evaluating QB's...which is probably why I love the dual threat guys. I don't think he's coming out this season but if he does, I'd guess a 4th or 5th would land him safely.

    The other thing I'm thinking about is that we're not looking for a day-1 starter...we want a project QB to develop and let him take the field when it's time. That's why I was looking at other names than the hot ones right now- I really don't think it's realistic we grab someone in the 1st or 2nd unless a big name slides.
     
  5. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    I would compare him to a more athletic Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod had similar passing percentage numbers in college. Lamar has better production though. That's the type of qb we need for this offense full of holes.
     
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  6. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When you’re talking about arm strength, you’re not only looking at how far the ball goes but how quickly it gets there. A football is different then a baseball, you’re not going to throw it 90mph and it s weight won't allow it to go that fast anyway. With NFL QBs you’re looking at 50-55 mph as the high end of throws while staying accurate. Elway and Favre, widely regard as two of the strongest arms ever who were accurate, were consistently 53-57 range. Logan Thomas in 2014 had the fastest throw at the combine in the previous 7 years at 60MPh. Hard throwing does not equate to winning or Jeff George might be a HOFER and you don’t need to have a Kyle Boller type arm where you can throw 60 yards from your knees. But you’re looking for guys who don’t throw floaters (those get your WRs killed or intercepted) and can show some zip. Those throws in his highlight videos look like fly balls on a baseball field. He’s a real project right now and not someone I’d spend a mid round pick on.
     
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  7. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    . I agree Taylor is a good comp. But Taylor was a 6th round pick (#180) who spent years as a backup. That’s why I said Jackson needs to stay and clean up those things now. To be clear I don’t see Jackson as a 6th round prospect but right now he’s more 3rd round ish.

    The sooner people realize you don’t win games in the NFL with your QB running around, the better off you’ll be.
     
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  8. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Tyrod made a pro bowl and currently has his team in the playoffs. Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are running, probowl qbs that win. I don't want Lamar for designed runs...I want him for when our crappy oline screws up and when our playcalling gets predictable.

    I don't see any good pure passing qbs in this draft, so give me the best dual threat guy.
     
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  9. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wilson came in as a passer who could run. His height knocked him down to the 3rd. Cam was at a more advanced stage as a passer then Jackson is right now. Even Cam though has at times struggled with his accuracy at this level. For example, Newton started this past weeks game 0-5. You don’t see that from Wilson, Rodgers, Brady etc. To fix that you need to drill it constantly and operate as a perfectionist, I can’t see that being fixed any other way if it can evem be fixed. He should clean that up at the college level.

    I don’t know how you don’t see any good pure passing QB’s. I haven’t had a draft with 3 QBs I genuinely liked in the 1st round since Eli, Roethlisberger and Rivers. Rosen is a cut above for me but I wouldn’t go crazy if someone else like Darnold or Mayfield.
     
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  10. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    You honestly think Rosen or Darnold can overcome this oline and bland playcalling? Maybe Mayfield...
     
  11. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wouldnt put them in position to. Go ahead, take a qb 1st round...you can go Price and Ragnow rds 2 and 3 and have a C and LG for a decade. Mason Cole and Will Hernandez work quite well as consolation prizes
     
  12. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    OK. Been thinking about this for a day now, I know get a life right.

    I seriously don't see a QB this year I would want spend our 11 pick on. All the top three have serious flaws in translation to the NFL, especially for top picks.

    But, make me do it I would go for Luke Falk. I like the vision and accuracy, decision making could have been better this year but over his career he was pretty good.

    If we could trade down, or package a player and our second to move up to 26-30 for him I wouldn't hate that.
     
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  13. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I would be happy if we select Allen, but any QB the FO feels fits our requirements is fine with me.

    I suspect we are about to have a hole at our backup quarterback position and will need to get one this year. This may be fixed by free agency or the draft. Which way the FO takes is immaterial, as long as it works for us. This should not be seen as a threat to our starting QB, but just an other QB that is available when we need him. This situation exists on every team in the league, so lets dispense with all the absurd dramatics.

    I do not feel the position a QB is drafted in has any particular meaning, other than a perceived value based on a limited amount of knowledge from their playing at a much lower level of competition. I will be happy as long as we get someone that develops to the point where they are a capable replacement and eventually a starter.

    A developmental QB has always been one of our needs and this position is currently just as critical as any of our other positions of need. If a player meets our requirements we should take him. I don't care what round he is drafted in. Restricting our choices in the draft due to someone's arbitrary opinion about potential salary vs. position requirements places an unreasonable limit on our ability to draft good players. We should let the other teams limit themselves that way and take advantage of it.

    I am not interested in trading up in the first round for anybody. I would like to see us trade down for more draft positions; especially if we feel we can get as good a player for our purposes at the lower draft slot as we might get at our original draft slot, based on our teams board. I remember reading that after the first twenty draft slots, there is a significant drop off in the historic NFL performance of draftees. Usually the top 2 or 3 rated players in the draft are a step above the rest. This means to me that any draft pick between the 4th and 20th position offer roughly the same chance for success. If we trade down from 11 to 15 we are not going to be in any worse shape in the draft and any extra draft position is just icing on the cake.

    Just remember that there are no perfect players in any draft, only potentially good players. This kind of thinking helps keep me from getting "wound around the axle" when the draft arrives.
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Anyone you'd prefer to get when trading down?
     
  15. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    My favorite QB's are Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen. I suspect Jason Rudolph will be gone by the 11th round. I anticipate 5 QB's being selected in the first 10 picks.

    After round 10, the teams that want QB's will have likely made their selections, moving up if they thought it necessary. I feel this leaves Josh Allen and he is as likely to be available at a later sub 20 pick as he would be at 11.

    What I like the most about these guys is their size. In the NFL, they are going to need it. As for how good they are as players, I rely on some of the national ratings, keeping in mind they are often limited in their analysis. This forum adds a lot of information about skill sets, but it is often overstated, understated, or just biased towards a given posters view as to what is important. I like all looking at the information but accept that most of it is going to be distorted or incomplete in one way or another.

    What I would love to know is who is on the Dolphins draft board, where they are at and what about them caught our scouts eye.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If that's your viewpoint of the team, then why are you even talking about drafting a QB in the first place?
     
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  17. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Action Jackson declared for the NFL draft... take him
     
  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Where and for what cost?

    Do you move up at any cost? Only if he comes at 11?

    What's your take?
     
  19. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Stay at 11, if he’s there get him
     
  20. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see why everyone is so high on Jackson, 5 years from now everyone's going to be saying RGIIII squared to the 5th power. the guys has bust written all over him he plays in a conference that really defenseless besides a few teams in the past 3 years, mind you the god all mighty himself had parker rated high in this same conference which made him look powerful and a huge weapon.....how'd this one turn out?

    he constantly loses to lesser teams, he runs entirely too much and his accuracy even for college is a miss. and at 210 lbs hes small for a 6'3 frame for football. I think too many of you look at hype IMO he should have never won the Heisman, someone who loses multiple times a year is not the best player in college football I thought Watson should have won it easily, Jackson lost 4 games last year and only 1 to a top 20 team and lost 2 straight bowl games to the sec. I have a failure to see the greatness in this pick. If I was front office I would let someone like Cleveland sink themselves again with this pick.

    i seen someone say get falk in the second round or something, i like that idea if he is still there unless you move down for Mayfield then i wouldn't get anyone early. Jacksons will go first round i just hope not to us.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Can you guys do us a favor? When you mention a QB we haven't talked about yet, could you grab a highlight video for those of us that don't know college QB's? I think that would help a lot of folks out.

    Here's a highlight reel on Jackson-

     
  22. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Because I think Lamar Jackson is the only qb in this draft that can fix this offense. Possibly Baker Mayfield. We've been trying to get a competent oline for almost 15 years...it hasn't worked. So get an athletic qb to offset the incompetence.

    A question was asked. I answered.
    Simple
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2018
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  23. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Yep
     
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  24. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    Looks like the solution to me.
     
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  25. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    If the front office is convinced about one of the top QBs in this draft, then they need to go get them. Trading Tanny and #11 might be enough to get the Browns #1 pick -especially if the first choice for Cleveland tells them 'No' and they decide to pick up a couple stud players at #4 and #11 to help them win a few games in 2018. Maybe Miami needs to throw in a second rounder next year to make the deal happen? A small price to pay if you end up with a franchise QB.

    I'd rather keep Tanny though, as he should be able to play for another 5-6 years before age might become an issue. The whole team will look quite a bit different in five years time anyway. Getting a QB for a backup and potential replacement would not be a bad idea though. I'd spend as high as the second rounder to grab one in this draft.

    Milton looks too small to be a legit NFL QB. I saw him listed at 5'11" and 177lbs, so unless he is the second coming of Russell Wilson......
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Gase has been adamant that Tannehill is the starter for 2018. Ross is adamant that Tannehill is the starter for 2018. While I'm all for a 1st round QB if that scenario plays out to our favor, it's not going to involve an RT trade. The only names I see big enough to trade up that the team would even consider is Landry, Suh or Jones...and I don't think they'll move Jones.
     
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  27. Base of Gase

    Base of Gase Active Member

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    Two for me: Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. I love both of these guys.

    I opined for Josh Allen months ago, regarding potential QB targets in the upcoming draft.

    Josh Allen pros: Can make any throw on the field. Physical traits and overall size. Pure arm strength. Smooth progression through reads. Surprisingly nimble allusive for his size. Strong pocket presence. Intelligent.

    Josh Allen cons: Can make some bad decisions. Can rely too much on his physical abilities rather than taking the easy play. Level of competition. Needs to mix up his cadence. Predictability.

    Josh Allen is actually my number one, and I would just say that Lamar Jackson would be 1A (or consolation prize). IMO, Jackson has made some good strides this year in three key areas: pocket presence and awareness, deep ball accuracy, and overall decision making. He’s an amazing playmaker and still a little bit raw, but I see him being a star in the NFL. I do think he will put on some weight, strength, and mature at the QB position, so that aspect doesn’t really worry me.

    The other thing that I like about either Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, there won’t be a lot of pressure to rush them on the field (barring another Tannehill injury). Let Ryan hold the reins for another year or two (possibly more), and let Gase work his magic with these two young studs in a learning capacity. Don’t throw them right to the wolves, or reason to (minus injury). With Rosen, Mayfield, or Darnold I see the fans and front office facing more pressure to insert them if things go south quickly - along with giving up more capital and resources to acquire them in the first place.

    My ideal dream scenario: the Dolphins swing a deal to move down in the first, say ten spots, and pick up another second or third round pick. Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson is still there at the new spot, and we get an extra pick and still get one of the two QB’s they covet.

    Dream scenario aside, my two QB’s that I love (and sink or swim with) in this draft are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
     
  28. NCPhinFan

    NCPhinFan Active Member

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    I am an RT17 fan, but I think if Mason Rudolph is there at 11 we have to take him. He played in a pass heavy offense at Oklahoma State but he has a laser quick release, a good arm, and is pretty accurate. Others seem to be high on Jackson, but he is just too turnover prone for my liking.
     
  29. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I know Tanny is here for 2018, no doubt. The OP was asking about IF Miami wanted to get a QB in this draft. If Miami was determined to do that, you use Tanny in any trade up. Gase could bring Cutler or Moore back for another year while the rookie QB learns. Again, NO WAY does this happen.

    A trade down from #11 to get another second or third rounder AND then a project QB in the first round? Maybe.
     
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  30. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think Grier is doing the smart thing in planting this seed that he would take a qb if he was bpa on their board, I don’t think he would personally but the other 31 teams should t know that, it’s a good spot if someone falls like Mahomes and Watson did last year and someone wants to move up and give us some extra picks
     
  31. NCPhinFan

    NCPhinFan Active Member

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    Rudolph is projected to be a first rounder on most draft boards.
     
  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's a few Mason Rudolph clips; I couldn't find a 2017 highlight or career highlight video-



     
  33. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    Most draft boards are run by people that watch more college ball than pro ball.
     
  34. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    The idea of trading Tannehill is intriguing and we should at least explore it. That said, not sure the price paid for Jimmy G will encourage the Browns to give up a first. Then again, they reportedly were in on AJ McCarron lol. It's the ****ing Browns. I'd take pick 4 and a pick in the second round for Tannehill.

    I think it's a smart move to keep as many options open as possible, but we had better be dang sure of someone later in the draft if we are moving back. We have been bitten by that, and I don't like leaving premium talent behind. Are we going to say no to Josh Jackson or Derwin James for instance?

    What boards? I haven't seen him anywhere near the first on pretty much any mainstream board. The dude is a system QB - he might be worth taking in the 3rd or 4th but that's about it.
     
  35. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Yep. He had a bad year this year and it was mostly due to pressure. Run game was below average and thus teams were focusing on stopping him. Oh, and it turns out he's had a broken wrist since week 2, so check off the big balls box. And we've seen the arm, he can make the throws, check the arm box. Ended up all time NCAA records, 4 yr starter and team captain so check off the leadership box.

    Career stats: http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/550629/luke-falk

    Worst year completion percentage was 64% which is above average. NFL QBs need to be in the mid to high 60s to be successful and yes you can argue which stat is most important til the end of the universe. But getting the ball where it is supposed to go is the QBs main job. The more often he does that...
     
  36. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    mayfield at 11 some people have him going around 20th so...
    or
    jackson in the 2nd or 3rd.
     
  37. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Josh Allen is a bust. Carry on.
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He’s got some hi level tools, arm strength and qb specific athletic ability, but...

    I don’t see the ability to change speeds and apply touch in critical situations..I get a mechanical impression from him..
     
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  39. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Well said. Pitiful accuracy and ball placement as well. And . . . you can't teach accuracy.
     
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed, Cannot teach accuracy..
     

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