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***Official All Things Tannehill Thread***

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fin D, Dec 28, 2017.

  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I have a long post around here somewhere showing all this info.
     
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  2. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, you have to account for the opposing QB, too--who we shouldn't assume were all average.

    In this case, the opposing QBs were:

    Tyrod Taylor (36 rating) (Brady was way better)
    Jay Cutler (112 rating) (Brady was way worse)
    Ben Roethlisberger (111 rating)
    Tyrod Taylor (79 rating) (Brady was way better)
    Bryce Petty (73 rating) (Brady was better)

    So, we'd probably expect the Patriots to have won 3 of those games considering the opponents. That in tandem with the fact that the 4th was so close is fair I think.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You're sort of understating those stats since we all know it was one game in particular that threw Brady off his game. Which bums did that again, I can't remember? =)
     
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  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    lol...Brady had one game with an above average passer rating in those 5 games. (The 2nd Bills game) The rest were 87 and under with the lowest being the 59 the Dolphins spanked him with. ;)
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The equation for expected wins given passer rating differential over a 16 game season is: W = 0.177*PRD + 8

    Using that equation over fewer than 16 games will result in less accurate results, but I guess it's better than nothing. To change it to expected wins over N games, just use W = [(0.177*PRD+8)/16]*N

    The combined passer rating of Brady for those 5 games is 81.6 while the combined passer rating of his opposing QB's for those 5 games is 82.6, so the differential is -1 lol. Plug -1 into that equation for N = 5 and you get 2.44 expected wins out of those 5 games. So I guess his team added (.. wait.. let me rephrase!) 0.5 wins and the REFS added 1 win. lol
     
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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    So once again we see the Pats defense winning games. Just like they have for the last 17 years. (Defense and cheating...lol)

    I mean, the Pats started off with horrid defensive play and they went 2-2. Defense starts playing top 5 and they go 11-1.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah it's definitely a team effort. They have one of the best coaches, QB's and defense, and sometimes one covers for a subpar performance by the other.
     
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  8. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Not really... I’m just using simple math... I don’t need to pick out PLAYS here and there to make a player look good. I look at thing like consistency and the only thing Tannehill has been consistent at is being an average QB. We can definitely upgrade the position and I’m sure going into this offseason here, that will be on the minds of everyone in the building.

    Will Tannehill be the starter to start the 2018 league year? More then likely, sure will.

    Will he finish the 2018 league year as starter? This is where I have my doubts...Especially if we lose Landry, I see mass regression happening from Tannehill.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I completely disagree on both accounts. Even if Tannehill remains average for the rest of his career (which we'll call the 16th overall QB in the league), I don't think we move on from him any time soon. Plain and simple, who do you start in his place next season? Some rookie off the bench? Moore? I just can't see it happening.

    In terms of Landry, I don't think he's going anywhere unless we use him as a trade piece for a high draft pick. But at the same time, I don't see him as a critical piece of our offense anyway- he's going to catch a billion passes for 3-5 yards a pop when we should be attacking the field with more dynamic playmakers. I love what Landry does and I hope he stays, but I almost think we'd be better off without him since he's the ultimate illusion. Great hands, great heart, but he just doesn't move the chains enough to get excited over.
     
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  10. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Lol we will see, I would love to see Tannehill take us see in the playoffs and turn up as a top 5 but at this juncture, I just don’t see it happening and instead of pretending, I just deal with it.
     
  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And yet Brady has rarely "covered" for piss poor defensive play. And BB cheats...so.... lol
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He's done that on many occasions. How often depends on where you place the threshold. Most famous recent case would be covering for his defense in last year's SB. That defense gave up 28 points and allowed a 144.1 passer rating by Matt Ryan. While Brady didn't play well early on, he did lead perhaps the most remarkable comeback in SB history to win the game.
     
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  13. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    The Pats defense and stupid play calling by their opponent once again won the game, however.

    Yes the Pats "D" was torched in the first half (They gave up 21 points and not 28. Brady had an 82 yard pick-6, remember?), but they were great in the second half. The Falcons averaged 34 ppg last season and the Pats defense held them to 21. The Pats offense averaged 28 ppg last season and the Falcons, until OT, allowed them 28 points.

    Brady did nothing spectacular in that game. If not for the defense tightening up they would have been slaughtered. Hell, if not for the stupid play calling and the Pat's defense getting the sack the Falcons would have won in regulation.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah when it comes to Brady you and I are on different sides. I don't think you give him due respect as one of the greatest QB's all time. I also don't think you are giving him due credit for the greatest comeback in SB history.

    Anyway.. we both know where we stand on this so no need to go back and forth.
     
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  15. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Well, by all technicalities Matt Moore took us to the playoffs and I can’t sit here and say it was a lock for Tannehill to win those games at the end of the year considering his horrific late season collapse in 2013 being the only point of reference of how well he would have done in those crucial games. Yes, he’s better than Tyrod or Blake but Mariota is arguable and I would take Mariota and his upside any day of the week however, I’m not sold on Mariota either.
     
  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yeah, but one more thing. I don't think he deserves "due respect". He's a whiner, a baby, and a cheater. He seems to work hard, and he seems really football smart, but how much of that is cheating? No one knows and thus he deserves no respect. He's a POS. BB is a POS. Kraft is a POS. The entire organization is a fraud. From the cheating at football to the cheating on their wives to the total lack of integrity from the top on down...frauds, the lot of them.

    And that may sound like sour grapes, but I have/had no problems giving Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Kelly, Aikmen...hell, even Bledsoe, and so forth, their due respect. Two of those guys I would say are/were better than Marino and I'm a huge Marino homer. I rooted for the Pats in their first Super Bowl. I was in awe of the "Brady to Cinderella" story. I genuinely felt happy for the guy. I'm a strong believer in working hard pays off. I thought that's what Brady did. And when it comes down to it I just love football. I love watching great players. Great teams are addicting to me. I relish in the fact that I will get to tell my son that I got to watch some of the greatest NFL QB's of all time. But, I don't like cheaters. I don't like liars. And the Pats are both.
     
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  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So why did those QBs have low ratings? Once you answer that, you'll find yourself right at the point we were making...
     
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  18. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    What proof do you have? All we have is 2013 and he crumbled against two AWFUL, TERRIBLE TEAMS (total of SEVEN/7 points).... (SEVEN!!!). So LOL away. Lmao

    And again, not a big believer in Mariota, either way, I would just prefer him over Tannehill. He uses his legs well.
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I understand. I don't deny they've cheated (that's obvious.. they got caught and fined for it). So the disagreement really boils down to how much of their success you think the cheating influenced. Personally I don't think the cheating we know of can come close to explaining their tremendous success, which is why I'm still willing to say Brady is an all-time great.

    So it's really a question of what cheating have they engaged in that we don't know of, and could any such unknown cheating be influential enough to give them 5 SB's. Who knows.. but my view will always be based on the evidence that I can access, so I can't agree with your view on Brady until new evidence of a more damning kind turns up (assuming it exists).
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Then the questions become:
    Why do you believe that is all the cheating they've done?

    and

    Why would BB risk as much as he did on cheating that didn't do much for the team?

    I mean if they're willing to risk all that for virtually no real benefit, wouldn't they be willing to risk stuff for MORE benefit?
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't necessarily believe we know all the cheating they've done so I wouldn't at all be surprised if Belichick has done more. To your second question, I think Belichick is the type of coach that will try to gain any kind of advantage however small. So it's not necessarily the case that the advantage has to be huge to justify cheating (that's just my guess btw).
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Then why are you so confident in their greatness? I mean so many great coaches from before and we'd be shocked if they cheated.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just going on the evidence available, nothing else.

    I mean.. nothing football-related would make me happier (other than the Dolphins winning a SB) than if a Lance Armstrong-type event occurred sometime in the future with Belichick. But until then, I'm going with the evidence available.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I guess I just see the evidence as pointing to cheating.

    They've been caught multiple times. Accused multiple more. BB was a failed HC already. Brady was a nobody in the draft. Most of the coaches and players that leave them fail anywhere else. All of this while gaining unheard of success.......

    That all points to still cheating and cheating big.

    There;'s really nothing that points to them not cheating actually.
     
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  25. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    You are being entirely too very calm about it actually. Right now, I will have to back away again or I will be recalling some of the glorious "corrections" a couple of Navy Chiefs I ran into chewed my as.... excuse me.. corrected me with while I was on the wrong end of the problem! Too many people equate thinking with talking, or writing on a board. 'Tis very seldom true!
     
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  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sports Illustrated did an excellent article on it last year, including on why they have BY FAR the least fumbles in the Brady era and admissions of guilt that have never before been made public. The entire league knows about it because the Patriots told them- https://www.si.com/nfl/2015/09/08/p...icions-bill-belichick-tom-brady?xid=si_social
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well first of all I agree that's a very good article, but they don't explain why the fumble rate was abnormally low for the Patriots (among outdoor teams btw) since the 2007 rule change. That fumble stat is the one statistical anomaly I can find about the Patriots and I haven't heard any good explanation of it.

    Also.. while that article shows many teams are suspicious, they also point this out:
    which jibes with how I view them and why I also consider Belichick and Brady two of the best.

    Oh, and this quote jibes with my answer to Fin D about why they'd risk cheating if the gain wasn't that great:
    So yes, good article, but it doesn't show evidence that team cheated its way to 5 SB's (that is, the effect of the cheating was so huge), especially if it's true so many teams are taking extra precautions against specifically the Patriots.
     
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  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I didn't re-read the entire article since it's pretty long, but doesn't it go into how "the Deflator" got caught letting air out of footballs all the way back in 1999 when Bledsoe was quarterback? The theory is that with less air in the ball, you can grip it harder and less likely to fumble. This was suggested almost 20 years ago by multiple clubs.

    By the way, your other comment about the cheating not helping them is irrelevant. For instance, if Mark Cuban got caught robbing a bank, would the police let him go because he really didn't need the money in the first place? Of course not. Why they cheat does not matter in the slightest regard- it's the cheating itself that's the problem and their history of trying to circumvent the league rules.

    It has taken place throughout Belichick's tenure and I don't care how god/bad he may be- a cheater is a loser in my book 100% of the time.
     
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  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No they just point out the anomalous fumble stat. Remember it's only since 2007 after a rule change that this happened.

    My argument is relevant given that it's the argument I was making in the post you originally quoted. I've already acknowledged they're cheaters. What I don't acknowledge is that the cheating we know of is the reason for their tremendous success, and your article is helping me make that argument, especially with that quote about NE's harshest critics agreeing they'd win anyway even if they did things by the book.
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sorry my friend, we're just not going to agree here. Cheating is cheating- I don't care if it's the #1 factor for their success or virtually no factor at all. The act of cheating itself makes that irrelevant.
     
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  31. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Winning a playoff game in Cleveland is like winning 10 Super Bowls m
    Okay. Go check the actual psi numbers of those balls in deflategate. Then see how much air should have been in their after the ideal gas law (with the balls being wet) and tell me how much air the deflator let out.

    Do that.
     
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  32. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    "They could win without cheating" is not a valid reason to excuse them IMO. They are all frauds.
     
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  33. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Are your Brady and BB posters circa 2001 or have you updated them to any recent ones?
     
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  34. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Waits for blowhards to ask him what the route concepts were on those progressions....

    hehehe.

    Nice stuff Trav, hopefully theEXTREMISTS from the Anti-Tannehill group leave ya alone.
     
  35. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    It just never ends does it?

    You make declarations like "Thill struggles with secondary reads". You're asked why you think that. And you say the equivalent to, "Because I said so."

    So naturally people start asking for proof.

    It is extremely bizarre to act like wanting proof or evidence of a claim is unreasonable.
     
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  36. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Not that Im defending BB or TB, but I think ONE of the reasons they fumble less than most is for example the game vs Pitt where the TE tried to reach out before it was a catch.

    A Patriot player then said publicly that the players are NOT ALLOWED to reach out toward the GL in any circumstance. The risk wasn't worth the reward.

    So one of the reasons has to be pretty damn thorough coaching, with some easy to grip ball's mixed in.
     
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  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You really are special. He breaks down routes in one, detailing Tannehill's progressions. Post #370, in case you missed it.

    He didn't make a claim, give no proof of said claim, then insult anyone who disagreed with said claim.
     
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  38. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Do the players that leave NE forget that "pretty damn thorough coaching"? Because when they leave their turnover rates go right back up to normal league averages...
     
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  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    No, I actually said one of the few things I noticed in that 5 game sample was that when he had to be out of rhythm and go to his 2nd read, he looked uneasy. Nevermind the props I gave him for other things, naturally that one line was nit picked then some dude comes out of no where running his mouth about all the things one must know to come to that conclusion.

    Travis just posted about watching Ryan go through his progressions.

    I got a $5 bill that while he may very well know the routes, the defense etc. That he didn't factor that in to his evaluation. And his evaluation on that play was correct.

    So he got the answer right without those irrelevant variables. Why? Because those variables are irrelevant. :clap:
     
  40. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    You can pick out plays for any player in the NFL to show how “special” they are.... it’s called CONSISTENCY and Tannehill isn’t consistent however he is consistently average. I’ll give him that. But you can literally do the whole thing Aqua4Eva is doing with any player in the NFL. Lmao
     

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