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THE Jarvis Landry Future Thread - News, Updates and Discussion

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 3, 2018.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Throwing twice as much as you run 65/35 split is about normal in the NFL these days.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not quite that high yet. The highest the league average has ever been was in 2016 with 59.28% passing attempts. And in 2017 the Dolphins had the highest passing percentage in the entire league with 63.82%.

    Over NFL history this is what the pass vs. run percentages look like:
    [​IMG]

    One important caveat about these types of stats. Not all sites agree on how many "passing attempts" a team had. Some include sacks in passing attempts while others don't (pro-football-reference doesn't btw). I included sacks as passing attempts because by definition (in the NFL) you can only get a sack if there was a passing attempt. So that actually increases the passing percentage a bit more than it would otherwise.
     
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  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Landry and the Dolphins FO both need to be realistic with one another.

    Landry's number of receptions is without question. The man is reliable in being a security blanket if you will when the big plays downfield aren't there. He has the talent and ability to turn short plays into big gains, but the number of touchdowns proportional to the number of receptions is off balance. He keeps the Dolphins offense on the field, but doesn't produce points. He has to concede this.

    On the other side of the coin, the Dolphins need to realize that due to Landry's playmaking ability, this is a receiver you want and need on the team. We once had a receiver named Wes Welker whom we let go and he went on to help teams in New England and Denver win Super Bowl championships due to his reception ability. Welker and Landry are essentially the same player, only Welker was more physically punishing in my opinion but the fact remains, you need that reliable outlet receiver.

    If BOTH sides would sub mit to realism than the solution presents itself. Pay Landry a short term contract, 1-2 years worth 1.75-2.75 million dollars with incentives and allow the team to use freed up capital to build the team for a shot at the Super Bowl. If Landry's numbers and performance continue to impress, then offer than long term multi-million dollar deal
     
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  4. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, it would be great if we knew both sides were going to work together but quite frankly we don't. We've got a front office that's consistently over-extended themselves and a player who's asking for an amount that makes him seem like an opportunist.

    One thing we don't know is how willing the Dolphins are to stand firm and commit to a team-friendly number. The other thing we don't know is to what extent Landry is willing to play the free agency market.

    I do not think that franchising Landry is the solution. He's got nothing to "prove" as some might suggest. We know what he is through 4 years. Franchising him would only secure him 1 year of big money and force you into the same uncomfortable decision next year at which point DeVante Parker's rookie deal will also be ending making the WR position a huge need. So, IMHO, the franchise tag would be inappropriate in this case.

    That really leaves the ball in Landry's court. He has to decide whether he wants the money from a team in free agency or whether he's willing to accept something more reasonable from Miami. So far, he's claimed that he wants to be a Dolphin but we haven't heard that he's willing to negotiate. It seems he really does believe he's as valuable as $14M/yr.

    At that point, the team may need to start asking some philosophical questions about how much a WR is even worth to a team that (A) has a competent QB and (B) expects to see a continued supply of WRs come out of the draft. Are you even interested in signing a WR to a huge deal, let alone someone who's playing inside and lacks game-breaking speed?

    In my personal opinion, this is a bad deal waiting to happen. I don't think Landry's the solution to any problem Miami faces right now. And while it's wonderful when a Jarvis Landry falls in your lap, what do you really have to show for it? Ryan Tannehill isn't a rookie anymore. His arm is best used making big-time NFL throws to outside guys. I'd much prefer to see size and speed added to this offense, neither of which Landry offers in the slot.

    And as far as moving the chains, I'm sorry, you simply do not pay a slot receiver $14-15M/yr to get first downs. You'd better be a difference maker if you're getting that salary. Edelman produces similar stats and gets paid $11M/yr on a 2-yr deal he just negotiated in July. If there's a connection, I'll accept that. Maybe Landry is to Tannehill as Edelman is to Brady? When we talk about efficiency we see Edelman (7.2 Yds/Tgt) and Landry (7.1 Yds/Tgt) are very close. If so, why are we entertaining the notion of committing more money and more years?

    In the bigger picture, if you can't generate first downs, you've got bigger problems than just your slot receiver. That's an awfully mundane thing to discuss when justifying a big expenditure. Seems like a bad deal waiting to happen.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
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  5. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    My understanding is the dolphins want 10-12 million. I don' see Landry getting more from us. Part of the problem paying more is that he still runs incorrect routes and isn' much of a team leader plus his attitude penalties that come every so often. I think we have to let him go if he wants 14.
     
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  6. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Yep, and that's gross. I didn't think we would see imbalance like that again after Philbin was fired.
     
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  7. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Replace Landry if you can get a guy who can rack up YAC.

    YAC is extremely underrated.

    Just a reminder:
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    Just starting with 2012.

    Red: WR/RB/TE ranked over 30th in YAC
    Orange: WR/RB/TE ranked 21st-30th in YAC
    Green: WR/RB/TE ranked 20th-better in YAC

    2012:
    Top 10 QBs based on qb rating and where the top YAC getter on their team ranked:
    Rodgers (Cobb 12th)
    Manning (Thomas 4th)

    Griffin (Garcon 40th)
    Wilson (Tate 65th)

    Ryan (Jones 11th)
    Brady (Welker 1st)

    Big Rape (Miller 28th)
    Brees (Sproles 2nd)
    Shaub (Johnson 3rd)
    Romo (Bryant 13th)


    2013:
    Top 10 QBs based on qb rating and where the top YAC getter on their team ranked:
    Foles (McCoy 6th)
    Manning (Thomas 1st)
    McCown (Forte 10th)
    Rivers (Woodhead 20th)

    Rodgers (Nelson 23rd)
    Brees (Thomas 3rd)
    Wilson (Tate 15th)
    Romo (Bryant 14th)
    Big Rape (Brown 7th)

    CKap (Boldin 22nd)

    2014:
    Top 10 QBs based on qb rating and where the top YAC getter on their team ranked:
    Romo (Murray 12th)
    Rodgers (Cobb 7th)
    Big Rape (Brown 6th)
    Manning (Thomas 4th)
    Brady (Gronk 11th)
    Brees (Thomas 20th)

    Luck (Hilton 27th tied)
    Palmer (Ellington 27th tied)
    Fitzpatrick (Hopkins 25th)
    Wilson (Lynch 26th)


    2015:
    Top 10 QBs based on qb rating and where the top YAC getter on their team ranked:
    Wilson (Baldwin 18th)
    Dalton (Bernard 10th)
    Palmer (Fitzgerald 13th)
    Brady (Gronk 5th)
    Cousins (Reed 12th)
    Brees (Ingram 11th)

    Taylor (McCoy 55th)
    Newton (Olsen 30th)
    Stafford (Riddick 2nd)
    Smith (Kelce 7th)


    2016:
    Top 10 QBs based on qb rating and where the top YAC getter on their team ranked:

    Ryan (Jones 24th)
    Brady (White 7th)
    Prescott (Elliott 19th)

    Rodgers (Adams 22nd)
    Brees (Thomas 10th)
    Bradford (Diggs 42nd)
    Cousins (Crowder 25th)
    Carr (Cooper 9th)
    Luck (Hilton 39th)
    Mariota (Murray 28th)


    -------------------------------------------------------------

    Considering that if it is green or orange then the catcher is in the Top 30 of the league that year (which isn't a lot considering, WR, TE & RBs can all be on the list) tells a pretty convincing story about how important YAC is to a QB.
     
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  8. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Correlation or causation?

    I appreciate the work but you're citing teams with the best passing games and saying that they tend to have a receiver inside the top-20 or 30 in YAC.

    Ok, what does that tell us though...
    -- Is that receiver the component that's generating YAC?
    -- Is the offense really the thing that's creating the YAC?
    -- Is the QB really the reason for the YAC?

    And even if you find that the receiver is the one responsible for generating his own YAC you need to determine HOW so that you can target someone like that.
     
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  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    YAC is the only stat that is clearly the result of the receiver's skills.
     
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  10. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    You think Welker was more physically punishing then Landry? I would go with Landry on that one.

    Do you think that Welker is HOF?
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You could get a partial answer by comparing the correlation between YAC for the same receiver on different teams vs. correlation for the combined YAC of different groups of receivers for the same QB on the same team. That should at least tell you whether the receiver is more important for YAC than QB+coach.

    There just might be enough data to do this analysis, but you'd need YAC for every play which is usually not reported.
     
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  12. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think YAC is overrated, or at least used wrong. I think there is a correlation between how far the pass is from the LOS, and YAC. Last year Adam Humphries got 7.67 yac per catch. 64% of all of his yards.

    These numbers are better than Landry except he didn't get as many targets. Does anyone think he's special? He's a replacement value slot wr.

    Antonio Brown gets 4.66 yac per catch. If he was in the slot and catching the passes Landry and Humphries gets, that would be higher. Skills does play a role in YAC, but so does average depth of target.

    Half that list above has an RB listed.
     
  13. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Exactly.

    It's an interesting question but one that certainly requires more examination. Of all topics too, I'd think this would be one stats could handle relatively well if data was available.
     
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  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I assume you mean Yards-After-Catch which is generally what's reported for receivers (rather than Yards-After-Contact).

    Yards after the catch has a ton of factors that go beyond just receiver: the QB's decision-making speed, his accuracy, the play-call, the coverage, the down-and-distance, the depth of target, etc.
     
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  15. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    TBH from everything you hear from the media, he's not going to be a dolphin. he doesn't want to give a home town discount and he values himself 5 million more than the FO values him. from the FO view they aren't even asking for a hometown discount they are looking at yards and TDS. He's looking at catches.
     
  16. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Yes I do, hands down!!! Welker had zero fear coming across the middle of the field, would take a SHOT...and STILL held on to the ball
     
  17. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    That's not what he was asking. Welker got laid out alot. Landry does a lot of the laying out.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Using data from this site which has YAC from 2011-2017:
    https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?lg=NFL&yr=2017&type=reg&mode=C&conf=&limit=100

    If you look at the correlation between Y/A and YAC for everyone who had 50+ receptions, it's basically around zero each year with the average over those 7 years being -0.078. So at least we know Y/A and YAC aren't correlated with each other.

    That of course doesn't disprove the hypothesis that YAC depends on how far the pass is from the LOS because completion percentage is higher for passes thrown over shorter distances and that's not being accounted for by just using Y/A. But it does at least show that whatever determines variance in Y/A isn't what determines variance in YAC.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Do I think Welker is s HoGer? Well I’ll snswer it this way...

    We’d Welker broke the single season record for receptions in a season but you don’t see that in the history books because Randy Moss also broke that same record the same season. But it was Welker that broke it first
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Yes, yards after catch.

    And honestly, you are parsing that down waaaaaay to far. None of that other stuff matters if the receiver isn't breaking tackles and running the right angles. YAC is easily the most one sided stat in football.

    Look at the difference between Landry and any other receiver Miami had before him since 2012. Same QB, same playbook, same coaches.
     
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  21. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I certainly don't agree. It's very dependent on their surroundings, the offense they play in, and whom they play with. @DolphinGreg nailed it with some of the factors he listed.
     
  22. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Landry can also KR/PR (extremely well) and can be used out of the backfield.... this should all be considered... our most productive player the past 4 years is about to leave Miami because we won’t pay him? Not surprised lol part of the losing culture our FO loves.

    Our FO brings up yards and tds and not receptions in talks? Lol Of course they do,

    “Hey Jar, run this 3 yard pattern over and over, this will be your deepest pattern and when contract time comes, we can tell you that you never get us yards or tds, we will throw you the ball 200+ times because our other WR’s are either
    1) Garbage
    2) Can’t get open
    3) Overrated
    4) One Trick Pony the defense knows coming
    5) your the best WR on the team....

    But we don’t wanna pay you!”

    Miami Football baby!!!! Woooo!!!!
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Again, why did everyone before Landry (2012 on) suck at it?
     
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  24. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Davante Adams got paid and that guy goes through long stretches where he is either
    1) ineffective
    2) hurt (every year missing games)
     
  25. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Looking at Adams #’s.....

    LMAO the guy never broke 1,000 yards yet!!!! And he was horrid in his second season like absolute trash....

    After seeing this, yes, Jarvis you deserve just as much if not more than Adams.

    2017 74-885-10
    2016 75-997-12
    2015 50-483-1
    2014 38-446-3

    ......

    LMAO and people say this guy is better than Jarvis? This is so laughable and let’s forget the fact he can’t KR/PR or play out of he backfield and is soft as Charmin unlike Jarvis.

    2017 112-987-9
    2016 94-1136-4
    2015 110-1157-4
    2014 84-758-5

    It so clear who’s better, luckily, I won’t whip out his rushes and KR/PR #’s too.....
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2018
  26. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of reasons. Our offense's under Philbin were built on shallow crosser, drags, slants, short digs, etc. that worked the underneath portion of the field which lends to YAC. He's our slot, so those are the most common routes he runs. Now with Gase, his role has remained the same. Most importantly, Tannehill is an incredibly accurate passer.
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So why didn't;t the slot receiver(s) before Landry but under Philbin's offense produce like he did?
     
  28. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    I see a lot of people saying over 12+ million is overpaying Jarvis.... so with that said and under that logic...

    Good to know GB severely overpaid Adams... Jarvis is 4x the WR he is.
     
  29. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    I would love to keep him even at 14 million. But we just have to many holes to fill and to many players are getting huge contracts now it just doesn't make sense. If you can restructure SUH,Tannehill,Branch and Kiko to make room for Landry great. But the FO screwed themselves on this one.
     
  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Davone Bess - 2012. 101 targets, 778 yards. 12.8 ypc. 7.48 ypt. 1 TD.
    Jarvis Landry - 2014. 112 targets, 758 yards. 9.0 ypc. 6.76 ypt. 5 TDs.

    Jarvis was better at TDs.

    In 2013 we had an injured Brandon Gibson who showed promise that year. 7.58 ypt, 3 TDs in limited action (less than half a year).
     
  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I mean, I'm talking about YAC (very) specifically and (very) clearly, and you post a bunch of crap that has nothing to do with YAC or at best YAC is just a small part of.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think there's no question YAC has a lot to do with the receiver. The Jarvis Landry example isn't a bad one. Compare him to Parker and Stills from 2015-2017 so that you have the same coach(es), QB(s), etc... and you'll see that Landry has a combined YAC per reception of 5.21 while Parker is at 3.89 and Stills is at 3.575. That's evidence (even with small sample size) that the WR can matter a lot in YAC per reception.

    On the other hand, it's not that difficult to find evidence other factors can matter as much. Just take Mike Wallace. His YAC per reception in the two years 2011-2012 with Pittsburgh was 5.38, then in 2013-2014 with the Dolphins it dropped to 3.63, and in 2016-2017 with Baltimore it's back up to 4.71. So that shows you can get similar drops or increases in YAC per reception just by placing the same WR in a different situation. And in all three cases you had 120+ receptions over the two years so they're fairly comparable.

    What's missing of course is large enough sample size to do the kind of test I suggested in post #58, but there's evidence in smaller datasets that both the WR as well as circumstances external to the WR matter a lot.
     
  33. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    They did. Davone Bess had similar average YAC numbers in '12.

    Bess '12 - 4.43
    Landry '17 - 4.46
     
  34. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    That's a horrible comparison. Parker and Stills are perimeter receivers who utilize a completely different route tree to accomplish what they do.

    Which is more: Landry on a shallow cross, where he gets 10 YAC, Stills on deep Dag where he gets pushed OOB, or Parker on a Post where he makes the catch 5 yards after his stem break but is tackled immediately?
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's not a horrible comparison. You just need to understand the underlying logic. Ask yourself whether player ability has NOTHING to do with which position a coach will play that player? That is.. do you think Landry's ability has NOTHING to do with the coach deciding to play him at slot vs. say Parker on the perimeter?

    If you think Landry's abilities have SOMETHING to do with the position he plays, then logically speaking his ability had something to do with the difference in the stats. So yes those stats provide evidence that WR ability affects YAC efficiency.
     
  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Questions...

    - How did you arrive at those numbers? Is that YAC per catch? If so, what site are you using, because ESPN has different numbers.

    - Why would you use 2017 for Landry? Your argument was that offense, scheme, etc. all play apart and you're comparing two different coaches/schemes with Landry 17 and Bess 12. Also, i specifically said while under Philbin.
     
  37. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Rather, it's his physical incapabilities where he lacks in speed and high pointing the ball, and his inability to use the entire route tree and play outside that designates him to the slot. Creating YAC from the slot is much easier to do than on the outside. Being able to work the shallow, middle parts of the field allows you to settle b/w underneath zones, or run those quick crossers and slants to beat man coverage.
     
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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  39. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats...ECEIVING&opp=0&sort=5&qualified=1&sortOrder=0

    I simply just used the most recent stat line for Landry. And why does it have to be under Philbin? I thought your claim that Landry could produce YAC under any circumstance since it is, according to you, directly related to his abilities and it's not dependent on any certain situation.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK.. point is, we're not randomizing players by position, so the cause-effect relationship isn't just in one direction.

    As stated before, you'd need sufficient variation and large sample size to get statistically significant effects, but the stats I posted do provide some evidence of differences in WR ability (or inability if you wish!) even if there's clearly a confound that's hard (or impossible) to remove with small sample size.
     

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