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THE Jarvis Landry Future Thread - News, Updates and Discussion

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 3, 2018.

  1. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I do. His number of catches is more or less a by-product of a poor offensive line and being a quick/dump off option with his shallow route repertoire, especially screens.

    For reference, look at Landry's targets and catches once our offense finally got comfortable with Gase's new system in '16 from week 6 on. They dropped off considerably with the exception of two blow out losses to Baltimore and New England. Besides those two losses when we began to force the ball to Landry to try and get quick, cheap yards underneath in frantic moves to try and push the ball upfield, the ball was more evenly distrusted, we were more effective offensively, and in turn we won more ball games. 9 wins out of our final 11 games to be exact.

    Landry '16:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LandJa00/gamelog/2016/
     
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  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That's pretty interesting.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    How do you explain 2017?
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LandJa00/gamelog/2017/

    Correlation between targets to Landry and win% in 2016 is -0.51, meaning there's a relatively strong relationship between fewer targets to Landry and higher win% as you point out.

    But in 2017 it's the opposite. The correlation is 0.18, meaning we won more the more we threw to Landry, though the relationship isn't as strong.
     
  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Tannehill is better than Cutler.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    While that's an obvious statement of truth, the explanation Carmen Cygni gave should apply to 2017 too. We had the same coach and we had a poor OL, etc...
     
  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No, because Cutler would have had to rely more on a player like Landry than Thill did.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If that were true then the relationship would be stronger!

    That is, if as Carmen said Landry's "targets and catches are mostly force fed b/c of our lack of pass protection, and the desperate need to get rid of the ball quickly" and if as you say Cutler had to rely MORE on that, then the correlation should be more negative.

    So what the stats show is that Cutler relied LESS on Landry IF Carmen's explanation is correct (remember, he's saying relying on that kind of force fed stuff led to more losses). Or that explanation doesn't work in 2017 for whatever reason.
     
  8. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    C'mon man, seriously?

    Take into account Tannehill, a more balanced run/pass ratio (which I mentioned as a factor and we were dead last in '17 for balance), and you can figure it out with out some silly formula as to why the offense was more successful in '16.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Umm.. relying more on the pass should strengthen the relationship (make the correlation MORE negative), not weaken it. So yeah.. the explanation doesn't work for 2017.
     
  10. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Of course not. Situations were completely different.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Sorry, not an explanation. Data doesn't fit what you're saying in 2017.
     
  12. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  13. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    You left off great route runners with great hands.
     
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  14. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    Sounds redundant for NFL receivers.
     
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  15. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I beg to differ.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    Isn't that the entire job? Sounds more like the adjectives announcers use for white guys..

    1) Scrappy
    2) High motor
    3) Gamer
    4) Sneaky athletic
    5) Gritty
    6) Winner
    7) High ___ IQ
    8) Good fundamentals
    9) Plays the game the right way
    10) Lunch pail guy
    11) Heady and/or cerebral
    12) Deceptive speed
    13) Gym rat
    14) Intangibles
    15) Gets the most out of his abilities
    16) Has a lot of heart
    17) Grinder
    18) Out-hustles
     
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  17. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Smart enough t grasp the playbook. Their offense has been in place almost two decades now and is ridiculously complex. It's the polar opposite of the Moore/Manning system. One guy charted each pass play for the Colts and there were only 16-17 play concepts. Total. Receivers always lined up on the same side (Harrison right, Wayne left) etc. The secret weapon was Manning knowing what th defense was gonna do and deciding what play was best, and then which receiver would the first target.

    The Patriots on the other hand may have four different checks after the snap alone.
     
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  18. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    Do they even wash his uniform after games?
    Looks so white and unused
     
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  19. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Yep, Levels concepts all day long with Manning & Co. Wasn't complicated but Manning knew exactly where to go with the ball b/c of his presnap ability to ID the defense.

    And, like you said, the Patriots E&P is by far the most complex system I've seen. Certainly helps to have an experienced vet like Brady at the helm for nearly two decades.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Getting back on topic, it looks less and less like Landry will be in Miami next season. He can't stop crying and running his mouth to the media.
     
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  21. dolfan40

    dolfan40 Well-Known Member

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    Does not sound good
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Nope, it really doesn't. They can't come to terms as a lot of us expected.

    Here's the bigger question though- is there a team out there that will give him $15M a year? He's walking away from 10-11M feeling "disrespected", so you'd have to assume he's expecting the 14-15 range. And I don't think there are too many teams that would pay that much for a guy that had one of the lowest YPC numbers in the entire league.

    It seems like someone always overpays, but it will be interesting to see what happens if someone doesn't. Will he remain loyal and take the 11M from Miami or will he sign a ****ty incentives contract with a team like NE to chase a ring?
     
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  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Apparently it’s in god hands and he’s doing his negotiating..
     
  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I love the guy but he’s delusional
     
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  25. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    Bye Jarvis.

    Solid receiver. Not worth elite money when most of your routes are within 6 yards of the LOS.
     
  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Yea, it does sound like he's not going to be with us next year, which is what I kind of expected. If this is indeed the case, then the front office needs to be proactive and get something out of him, trade him for a big need of ours.
     
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  27. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Davante Adams got 14... I would expect Jarvis who has much better career #’s And much, MUCH, more consistent to expect that or more.... GB already set his market. Is he worth 14-15? No. But neither is Davante and he got his 14.

    With the loss of Jarvis, I expect major regression from the offense.
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    People said the same thing with the loss of Miller....then Ajayi....

    I'm a Landry supporter. I believe he brings a lot to the offense....BUT.....he can be replaced....he's not a Gronk or another player that has no comparison.
     
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  29. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Where those 100 catches going? Parker? Deep Threat Stills? Carroo? Just wondering...
     
  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You do realize we have an ENTIRE offseason yet, right?
     
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  31. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    I do realize that... having said that, i just don’t know what player (rookie or FA) that will just walk in and replace that major production. And I don’t see that guy on our team yet either. Can other guys slightly pick up some extra work? Yes, I see that mostly going to Drake (who I think is a guy who will get more work and produce well with that) but meanwhile I find Stills very one dimensional and Parker is really just a tall scrub up to date and I don’t trust that guy one bit on the field.
     
  32. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Let Landry walk and you could sign another competent slot and TE for roughly the same price, and the goal would be better ball distribution as opposed to having a single player be the focus of the offense.

    Just b/c you see Stills take the top off a defense, doesn't mean he is one-dimensional. I'd rather keep Stills, as he is a much more well-balanced receiver than Landry. Parker will click, again, with Tannehill. I didn't expect much out of either WR this year with the gimp-armed, turd burglar behind center.
     
  33. Mafioso

    Mafioso Air Force's #1 Phin Fan

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    Just like unworn jersey of his that I bought...well except for the Tape residue where I got excited after the draft decided to put Parker's name on the back...which I also don't wear much :( lol
     
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  34. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Landry is much more than a competent slot... That’s just straight up disrespectful (he can play out of the backfield and KR/PR VERY WELL) and even more so, when you go on to complement a guy (Parker) who’s career has been so trash for a high first round pick and who isn’t required to do even 1/3 of what Jarvis is asked. At this point, I don’t know how you see games. Honestly.

    Tannenbaum is just gonna bring in another scrub TE to follow up the other scrub TE’s that got $$$ to sign here (Cameron & Thomas).... So, I don’t know why you have your hopes so high when we will more then likely end up busting at the position.

    Landry has been the best part of this offense the past 4 years. Nuff said. We have asked a lot out of him and nobody else has had to do the things he’s had to do. I would want some money too. When he drops another 100+ catches for 1,200 yards next season for a better offense that won’t clip his wings to 2 yard patterns every single play, I’ll have some fun with that.
     
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  35. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Landry is a glorified pass-catching RB. Check out his numbers in '16 when we won 9 out of 11 last games. They dipped considerably during that winning streak, with the exception of the two losses when we force-fed him the ball to try and get cheap yards underneath. Obviously many factors play a part in that stretch, but the important facet is that once he was removed as the focal point and we spread the ball around, it was for the better.

    I don't doubt Landry will probably rattle off another 100+ receptions, and 1,000+ yards . . . coupled with 3-4 TDs. Not worth top money, IMO.

    Not to mention we don't have much cap space and throwing the majority of that at Landry, with Tannehill already taking up a considerable chunk, and the remaining resources will be paper thin for offensive improvement.

    Though, your T-bum assessment is right on. Very little faith in him making any correct decision.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2018
  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The point being we won't be trying to match the production from one player.
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I do not have the desire to look it up, however, I do remember a few times it was pointed out that when Landry has more than 10 targets in a game, Miami's win percentage is lower.
     
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  38. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Here's a quick glance at '16 which supports that.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Carroo, Williams and Drake. From day one, analysts have said that Landry and Carroo are basically the same player except Carroo is a step faster- that's why they couldn't seem to get him on the field frequently (that and he was slow to learn the playbook). So we basically have Landry's replacement on the bench already for 1/20th the price.

    Do I have massive faith in Carroo? No. But I didn't with Miller, Ajayi, Williams and Drake either. So I'm giving the front office the benefit of the doubt here that they are properly evaluating this and making the right call. If Landry walks, I'm not sweating it.
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The thing with Landry is that he rarely finds the end zone unless we're already there. He rarely busts off huge runs either because everyone can catch him. And when you look at those numbers above, I can't help but wonder how many of those yards are between the 30's and essentially garbage yards that led to zero points.

    Yes, he makes a ton of catches and he has incredible hands and an even better work ethic...but is he helping us win? I just don't see the numbers that supports that and I think he's more of a crutch holding us back than anything.

    Let me put it this way- would you rather have Landry on the field on 3rd and 12 or Grant? With Landry, we're throwing six yards and hoping he can fight for the rest (which he normally cant...even though he gives it an awesome effort). With Grant, we're hitting him on a 10-15 yard seam route with the chance of it going all the way. Personally, I'd much rather have Grant getting that pass than Landry because the potential suddenly goes through the roof.

    If we want to stay last in the league on offense, then keep Landry. If we want to get serious and turn this offense loose, go with anyone else. That's how I see it. We throw to Landry way too much because we know he'll catch the ball and give maximum effort...but that effort just isn't enough because he doesn't have enough athletic ability.

    I love the guy, don't get me wrong, but I honestly think that he holds our offense back.
     
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