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Curious 1st Round situation

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Phinsfan92, Feb 10, 2018.

  1. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    What if Minkah Fitzpatrick, Marcus Davenport, Roquan Smith, and Tremaine Edmunds are off the board by our pick, and assuming the front office does not want to draft a QB in the first round or all 4 are off the board anways. Who do you take in this situation?

    We have taken plenty of 1st round lineman the last several years, and it has amounted to nothing. Might be a stupid logic but I wouldn’t grab a offensive lineman in the first round. My vote would be Josh Jackson, as CB is not even a top 5 need however he’s IMO the best player on the board and we would have an absolute shutdown secondary.
     
  2. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

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    As the draft's top defensive back, Fitzpatrick is expected to be long gone by our pick. If Davenport has a good combine, he, too, will be likely to go in the top ten. Roquan Smith and Tremaine Edmunds should both be available, though if they are not, that would mean that at least one of the quarterback-needy teams ahead of us (Browns, Giants, Broncos, Jets) passed on that position and opted for BPA.

    In which case, it would be wise to trade down, unless the franchise is hell-bent on taking one of the falling QB's. Rosen and Allen shouldn't fall, but there's a case to be made for Darnold as well as Mayfield to slip on draft day.

    Would certainly be an interesting situation for the FO. Their ultimate decision in this scenario would speak volumes about the future of the franchise.
     
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  3. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    A trade down would make sense, if we traded down near the bottom of the 1st we could take Rashaan Evans and move Raekwon to SAM.

    Btw, mods my apologies in adavance if I was supposed to post in the draft forum, realized shortly after posting...still learning the ropes here.
     
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  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Man if the guys you mention are gone by the time we pick, with possibly four qbs going as well then in your scenario Maybe one of Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Barkley, Nelson are on the board at 11..

    Highly unlikely any of those four are there..

    If Nelson is there at 11 I run to the podium if I’m them..

    Time to take this oline seriously, drop resources do whatever it takes to have a great oline moving forward, there is way to much evidence out there that having a Great oline might be the strategy to win at a high level..

    Think Wisconsin football... 40th in recruiting classes past couple years yet competing for conference and national championships..whipping the asses of programs that have better skill players..

    Think of how good ryan is when he has protection, think of how good drake could be if he had a true head start on the process instead of being the worst in football at giving their backs that head start..Think of what a good play action qb Ryan is.. think of how in the Miami climate having a dominant oline Oline could wear down the opponent..think of how our defense plays when they get rest in a game...Think of the attitude we could have pushing people around... think of how disciplined the big uglies can be living in south Florida culture.
     
  5. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Under that scenario presented by the OP, it really changes nothing for me....I don’t want a DB even if Minkah is there. He’s good but Nelson (I’d even look at Connor Williams there with the idea we could flip Tunsil back to Guard), pass rushers and QB need to be the priority. If Chubb, Davenport, Nelson, Williams, Minkah, Rosen, Darnold, Barkley, Mayfield are gone, I’m hoping someone will be stupid enough to try and trade up for Allen, Derwin James, or McGlinchy or we can play it safe with a guy like Harold Landry or Maurice Hurst/Da’Ron Payne.
     
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  6. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    mayfield.
     
  7. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    I agree with your thought process, but I still wouldn’t take an OL at 11 from a value standpoint. Nelson might be the best lineman in the draft but just grab one in the second or later, where one of Will Hernandez, Isaiah Winn, Braden Smith, Frank Ragnow, etc. will be there.

    They drafted 3 first rounders since 2011 and if they retain JJ and pick up a free agent guard, that would make even less sense.

    It’s much harder to find quality edge rushers and linebackers after the first than it is interior lineman.
     
  8. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    The more I watch this kid, the more I fall in love. When is the last time we had a TE with this kind of ability?



    I’ve seen him mocked on several boards at the end of the draft to the saints, would not be opposed to trading back for him either...
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nope...sometimes you gotta have a strategy to get it right..compromises.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2018
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  10. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The concern with him would be two fold - his route running is really pedestrian. He's not in any way explosive, he rounds out a lot of his route, his footwork is really average and whilst that's coachable, the concern for ME as an evaluator would be: was he satisfied in dominating lower levels of competition to the extent to which he didn't believe he needed to improve that area of his game? And secondly, he's a very average blocker. Not Mike Gesicki bad, but he's very inconsistent. His hip work isn't great and although there were signs of improvement this season, he's not someone you'd keep in-line very often which obviously makes you more predictable.
     
  11. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think Derwin James would make an awful lot of sense, as would Quenton Nelson, although teams who take G's in R1 don't win Super Bowls. If you're looking for a pure rush end who can consistently get to the passer in obvious passing situations then you look at Harold Landry. Vita Vea would make an awful lot of sense given a) his ridiculous talent level and b) the career snap count (and cap number) of Suh. As would DaRon Payne for the same reasons. And I suspect Denzel Ward will be very high on their list. Remember, the aim two years ago was to draft Eli Apple and Ward is better. He's fast, athletic and he's got elite feet. You can play him inside or out and if you feel that Howard and Tank are your outside guys, you can let Bobby McCain walk in a years time when he's a free agent, despite how good he's become as a slot.
     
  12. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    I agree with all those options except Derwin, I’m curious why people have him slotted to us. Isn’t he more of a box safety/hybrid linebacker? That would give us 3 of those and not 1 pure cover safety.

    I watch a lot of football and go mainly by “eye test” as I do not study and breakdown film. Appreciate the breakdown of Goedert, I’m assuming that’s why Andrews is ranked ahead of him?

    It’s prob not a good comparison but I remember having a young kid in Jimmy Graham on my canes who was a basketball player, super raw and not a good blocker. He turned out to be pretty decent. Just want that dominant tight end that gives other team fits, I feel like his ceiling is the highest of any TE in this draft.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And as the draft goes on, the talent drops off... my point is let’s put the most talent we can on the line..the dominoes are ready to fall in place if we do..
     
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  14. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think Derwin is a much better candidate with doing the coverage job than he is in the run game. He's really good in primary coverage or dropping into a variety of zones from linebacker position. I don't think he's a great run defender in part because he's not always as physical as you'd like, at least in respect to run fits. But he's an active attacker that you'd probably want to utilise in a robber role, but he absolutely can play single high because of his athletic talent. He needs a bit of work because he can get moved by a savvy passer using his eyes, but he can play corner, slot, box linebacker, free or strong safety. At the LOS he can also blitz, can handle some of the those more physical coverage responsibilities and can solve some our issues with red zone defense. The bonus is that he's an absolute alpha male. Speaking to guys I know i and around the FSU programme, this is a guy that comes to work every day. He's a film maven and as someone told me, "When Derwin talks, EVERYONE listens".
     
  15. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Sorry - missed your Goedert question - yeah Andrews is just better. The Hurst kid at South Carolina is a nice player as well.

    Graham was a significantly better route runner he had real burst coming out of his breaks. The issue for Jimmy that stopped him being really good is that he's not overly tough. He was never a blocker anyway and teams he played for played against his weakness. But he never REALLY trained on from his height and seemed to play scared too often.
     
  16. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Depends on what happens with Landry I think. I could see WR if he's traded. But otherwise that would mean the best OL Nelson, the best RB Barkley and the best DL Vita Vea, one of those at least would be there for us. Vea is going to be a 10 yr pro bowler. We could safely separate from Suhs $$$ if we landed Vea. Any of those three would be a no brainer to me. Is there an Earl Thomas in the draft? That would be the only position I would value higher than either line as far as team needs right now.
     
  17. DolfanR

    DolfanR Member

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    I'm hoping a quarterback needy team gets desperate and trades up with us. I would welcome it even because it would give us an opportunity to fill the roster with more talent.
     
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  18. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Going by your proposed way to address the OLine would you then also trade next's years first for another first rounder this year so you could take 2 OLinemen? I mean then we'd have 5 first rounders there and should be the problem free.

    Doesn't work that way as we have seen, it's more about who is picked and when. Miami has not done well and that's the key imo, hard to presume that is going to change when we haven't changed the scouting staff and management. Something is broken and by that I mean how this team is run.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I can’t help that Miami has not done well..lol..your opinion of them they can fu## up any position any time..

    I’m just saying you can know how you wanna build a team, and execute a strategy to get there..
     
  20. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Nice! Now we're talking! IMO, this is the type of guy we need. His versatility could pay huge dividends for us down the road. I am no expert, but I was just reading up on robber coverage. I like that it gives us more team speed and that we can disguise it as cover 3, 1, or 0. I think we would be ok as long as our DT's can clog up the middle.
     
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  21. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Theoretically of course you can, has Miami done so? You say you can't help that Miami has not done well, and of course you can't, but you want to continue a pattern of drafting OL in round one that hasn't, as you've said, done well.

    Until something systemically changes I don't hold much hope for becoming a consistent winning playoff team. Hopefully the results change as the structure certainly isn't changing at least this year.

    Your statement indicates you would build a team consisting entirely or almost entirely of first round OLineman. I think that is severely flawed.
     
  22. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    San Fran took a mauling guard a year or two before their Super Bowl; around 15?...

    I think it's a bit high for a guard. Plus we don't know where our fifth rounder is at physically. Plus Gase doesn't value the guard play that highly.

    Problem is these LB's aren't worthy of #11 either. Roquan would have to play WLB due to his size and Edmunds would be like drafting Ginn all over again, just a hair too high for #11. Either way, I felt like Cunningham was a better prospect and he went in the second round last year.

    I'd be happy with Derwin.

    We could trade down or just take BPA. Luckily, we have lots of time left to figure it all out.
     
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  23. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    How on earth is drafting Edmunds like drafting an overrated WR with awful hands like Ginn???

    The kid is a freak of nature and he’s only 19!!!

    Last season: 108 Tackles / 14.5 tackles for loss / 5.5 sacks / 3 FF

    Solid production and it’s not like drafting a player specifically off potential like Dion Jordan who had garbage stats in college.

    If you had to pick a single linebacker in this draft to cover Gronk, who would you rather have?
     
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  24. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Around that time, when the 49ers selected Iupati and Boone, the 49ers were one of very very few teams running a power/gap scheme out of the spread.

    Also, Smith is an excellent and ideal Will, and Edmunds . . . wait, WTF did you say about Edmunds? :cursing:
     
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  25. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Edmunds probably won't be there when we pick. I am thankful for that because I think his rankings are based solely on his athleticism and I wouldn't want to choose. According to the nfl.com draft profile he only has average instincts and is slow to diagnose. He can be fooled by misdirection and is responsible for some busted coverages that cost his team. Don't get me wrong. I know nobody is perfect and some of his issues could be coaching, however they could also be a lack of mental acumen. For me, that's a huge question mark. I would go with Smith over him if we went LB. We need LB's who know what the heck is going on.
     
  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didn’t say that, if Nelson is on the board it’s a no brainer because of what I’m saying..

    What I’m saying is create a strategy to improve the oline with better talent..because all the variables add up to reaching a level of winning we haven’t seen around here in over 40 years..

    My point about the evaluating is, hey if your gonna strike out, strike out going after this strategy..
     
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  27. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    In addition to his physical prowess and athleticism for a big guy, Nelson seems to have smarts and awareness. Daniel Jeremiah posted a video short on twitter of Nelson (LG) picking up a blitzer coming strong from the right side. I am not sure how the guard class is this year, but we could do a whole lot worse than Nelson if we took him at 11. Disclaimer: I don't have any real experience or exceptional football knowledge. Just a regular Dolphin fan, here. I like a lot of guys and Nelson is one of them.
     
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  28. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Wait, continue to use first round picks on OLinemen or pick Barkley who is substantially better than Zeke? Can't do both.

    You also have two strategies, use whatever it takes ie another first round pick and then more on the line and improve it with better talent. Talent is available throughout the draft and with street free agents. What's wrong here is Miami hasn't evaluated talent well and then managed and coached/developed it to the level required.

    Hope I am wrong but I believe Miami will have yet another new regime in a year or so , and that would be because of not winning, once again.
     
  29. Phinsfan92

    Phinsfan92 Member

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    I believe Nelson will have trouble with athletic dlineman (see Miami game)

    For a team to pick a guard that high, they should be close and feel they are a Nelson away from being a contender. We have so many holes across the board, it just doesn’t make sense when we can get a good guard in the second or third.

    It would make sense to draft Derwin if we trade Jones and actually get good value for him. Although, I’m hesistant to trade one of the few talents we have in attempt to fill the position with an unproven commodity.

    We are not the best talent evaluators so trading down and picking quantity over quality is not good...for us.


    If Davenport or Edmunds is there we should pull the trigger.
     
  30. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    Edmunds in first round, Duke Ejiofor in the second.
     
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  31. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like Ejiofor, but I think he's a mid-round pick. Hand fighting can't be the only thing you're good at.
     
  32. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    As a Nole fan, you absolutely nailed it. He is a tough case for me. He is really good at the LOS as a safety, off the edge or coverage. He is average at best in the run game. As a deep safety I would worry about his angles that he sometimes takes, however, he has shown to be able to close and close fast in coverage. Hes a better cover guy than against the run. But hes so damn good at the LOS. Many people think Derwin had a down year this year because of the lack of flashy plays(and he did have a down year in comparison to what people thought), but FSUs corners were suspect this year and Derwin was far and away the best single high coverage guy we had. So he was taken away from the LOS far more than he should of been.
     
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  33. guerteltier

    guerteltier New Member

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    I don't think Ejofor will become a 2nd round pick, at least 3rd round I guess. But he is an interesting option. I am pretty sure, Miami will take Edmunds/Smith or Nelson in the first round. Depends on signing via free agency. If the Phins are able to sign a Guard and a RT (my favorite options: Justin Pugh and Cameron Fleming), there is no need to pick Nelson. If they sign two LBs, they won't go on them in first round.
     
  34. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Why not draft a guard at 11 you ask? Not because of the money. The rookie salary cap evened draft order WAY out. Check this out, last years salary by draft pick. No it doesn't take in to account position played but G should one of the cheapest, FA G got 10-12m last year. Rookies should come in around 8-9 for a 1st rounder.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonb...round-rookie-salary-projections/#cfa62726f049

    The difference between 11 and 16 is 3.8 mil, between 11 and 24 4.5 mil. And between 16 and 32 only about 2 mil.

    Thats a lot but the difference in salary for Nelson if picked at 11 vs say 18-20 where most would seem to feel comfortable taking a G, just cuz, is going to be what??? 2 mil? Thats nothing really. If Nelson is the BPA on their board at 11 they should pick him, who gives a ish where you are "supposed" to pick Gs?
     
  35. The Finest

    The Finest Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    edmunds or smith in the first

    pick up a will hernandez or billy price in the 2nd
     
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  36. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Trade down to me is silly in the first round unless you get some crazy compensation so many holes to fill on this tram talent needed in all positions. Trading down and getting 4-7the rounders would be a mistake. Take the best player or make one part of our team elite. If we can have shutdown corners awesome if we can draft a stud RB do it, if one of the QB’s are there draft them to pressure Tannehill and from for 2-3 years from now. Having 4-5 late round picks means nothing to me. Not in the age of free agency you can get middle of the road or better nfl players for relatively good deals
     
  37. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Nobody else does either, but we all like to talk about football and the Dolphins so let er rip brah!
     
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  38. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    almost every team is only 2 years away from being a contender. Look how JAX turned it around with just 2 drafts and a couple of key FAs. I can agree that you don't go after the high priced FA unless you feel that you are that close to a playoff push, but IMO, doesn't hold up in drafting. If you feel someone is going to be a stud for 2 consecutive contracts, you pull the trigger despite where you are record wise
     
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  39. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Trading down in the first two years ago also set us back quite a bit b/c the FO thought they covered 3 positions in one trade, but the truth is they created liabilities at CB and LB with the players they acquired.
     

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