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Dolphins Meet With Baker Mayfield @ Senior Bowl

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shamegame13, Jan 26, 2018.

  1. Seadog

    Seadog Active Member

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    Well, then we'll just wait and see how he plays out, I'll win this one for sure
     
    shamegame13 likes this.
  2. Seadog

    Seadog Active Member

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    I wonder how many PO games he's won...lets check
     
  3. Seadog

    Seadog Active Member

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    LOL, yea, keep comparing him to DB...LOL 13 games to 2, yep just sit right back and I tell you a tale...
     
  4. Seadog

    Seadog Active Member

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    KC hasn't even won a PO game, and you want to compare him to DB, ok you win....
     
  5. Seadog

    Seadog Active Member

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    Oh yea, he's going to make someone unemployed after some idiot pays him top money for below average production....
     
  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Eli has a 66% postseason winning %.

    Aaron Rodgers postseason winning % is 59

    Marino has a 44%.

    Eli is better than Marino and Rodgers to some people who don't understand football. lol
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Chiefs did the right thing
     
  8. Seadog

    Seadog Active Member

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    LOL, I already said you won, why keep going...lol
     
  9. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You posted 5 times before Aqua posted again.

    Do you understand what's going on right now? lol
     
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  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    You seem to be dorgetting that KC traded up into the top 10 when they had Alex Smith on their roster last year.

    If there is someone they really like at QB available at 8,9 or 10 they’ll be wprking the phones.
     
  11. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    After the resources they just spent to get Alex Smith? I highly doubt it. Maybe 2nd or 3rd round or maybe they do take one in the first... but it won’t be through a trade up. I’ll place any bet if you would like to proceed further...
     
  12. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I’m not expecting it to happen, just that I am not ruling it out. If the number 1 QB on their board is still there at 8, 9, 10 then its possible to see a surprise move up.

    Over the last 10 years Alex Smith has been about average (90 passer rating +/- 5) for 8 years with two good years (105) rating about 5 years apart. signing Smith isn’t signing a great QB, it’s giving you a respectable floor.

    So if there is a guy they love available at a spot they can trade into then I wouldn’t be surprised. What the Alex Smith trade does is it takes them out of trading up and drafting their 4th or 5th rated QB in desperation.
     
  13. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    I feel like a team like Miami would be more inclined over WAS. They have already used a high draft pick and a premium slot CB for a QB. I doubt they drown more resources. If someone falls to them, maybe you’ll see them take a QB. But yes, a team like Miami with no backup and looking to upgrade, have better chances of a trade up for a QB.
     
  14. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    danmarino and Rock Sexton like this.
  15. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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  16. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I think that there is no doubt that the Dolphins' interest in Mayfield is real. Of all the QBs to lock in on, this one seems a bit strange. Based on the fact that Gase has run Ajayi out of town, and it certainly feels like we are headed down the same road with Juice, I am starting to get the feeling that Gase doesn't particularly like the alpha males. This is where I think that things are going down a strange road. I think Mayfield is by far the most alpha of the QBs. He certainly doesn't seem like a player that would shy away from saying what's on his mind.

    I just gotta wonder aloud, what's going to happen if things start going poorly? Despite Drake's solid performance, I still think running him out of town for the last pick in the 4th round was a mistake. Landry seems to be one foot out the door. The common denominator is that they are both alpha males that voiced their opinions. I personally don't think that it is a smart business decision to run pro-bowlers out of town, and I don't think that type of decision should be taken lightly. But drafting a QB in the first round is a commitment, and running them out of town is far different than running any other position out of town.

    Generally speaking, I tend to put a lot of stock in the physical skillet of a player. But I gotta wonder, what would happen if the personalities clash? Who would management side with?
     
  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You're so wrong on so many things.

    Ajayi ran himself out of town after receiving numerous chances.

    No on is running Landry out of town. If he's demanding top WR money he's not going to get it. This has NOTHING to do with Gase. Not one thing.

    Suh, Pouncy, Jones, and I'm sure a few others on the Dolphins are considered "alpha males". Why are they still around?

    Your attempts to place everything from player attitudes and conduct to player's salary on Gase is just dumb.
     
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  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Makes you wonder if this franchise actually has the balls to break out of their comfort zone, draft Mayfield, and potentially trade Tannehill.

    Barring a complete meltdown by Mayfield - the kid buys Gase even more time. The fan base in general continues to see an increase in derision among the opinions of Tannehill and how much more time/opportunity he should receive. At what point does a team take a step book and look at the longer termed picture? At what point does the "clean slate" of Mayfield become more attractive then what we already know of Tanny? They have to at least be considering it.

    I think the larger picture still being missed here is that 2018 is likely going to be a legitimate adjustment period for Ryan and his knee after not having played a regular season game since October 2016. Basically a 30 year old still looking for his rhythm in the NFL. The only drawback is that he's not rehabilitated to the point where we'd get the kind of compensation that would've been there had he been healthy.

    Tannehill's a tough SOB and has been the consummate professional as a Dolphin. But is he's owed blind loyalty though? After a while, a spade is simply a spade. For whatever reason, it has never clicked full time for him with this franchise and it's always been a situation where his play regresses back to the mean. Think hard Dolphins brass, think verrrrrrrry hard. QB drafts like this don't come around very often.
     
  19. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    What's your opinion on how he played once the offense settled for his last 8 or so games before getting injured?
     
    Irishman likes this.
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He played well.. but as Rock says we haven't seen clear-cut evidence that wasn't just a stretch of good play after which we'll again see regression to the mean.

    Just using passer rating as a rough measuring stick, Tannehill's best 8-game stretch was actually in 2014 from games 4-11 with a combined passer rating of 102.37, beating out his 8-game stretch rating of 100.13 in 2016. But that 2014 performance didn't translate into a new baseline level of play in 2015.

    Furthermore that 100.13 rating doesn't really demonstrate Tannehill played at a top 10 level because for proper comparison you need to compare to top 8 consecutive ratings of ALL QB's in 2016, and Tannehill comes in #12 on that list just like he comes in #12 when you use all games.

    For reference, the combined ratings for the best 8 consecutive games in 2016 are:

    Ryan 119.88
    Mariota 117.89
    Prescott 116.55
    Brady 113.15
    Rodgers 112.94
    Brees 110.8
    Cousins 107.39
    Roethlisberger 106
    Wilson 104.9
    Stafford 104.16
    Carr 101.1
    Tannehill 100.13
    Bradford 99.87
    Luck 99.07

    Compare that to rankings for all games:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/passing.htm

    So Tannehill did NOT play at top 10 level even during his "best 8 consecutive games" in 2016. Having said that, one reason I was partially optimistic about Tannehill in 2017 was this:
    [​IMG]

    That's Tannehill's passer rating relative to the passer rating allowed by the defenses he faced (passer rating allowed by that defense for that year), and there's undeniably a very steady upwards trend. That's good evidence he kept improving even through 2014-2016. Nevertheless, performance-wise Tannehill is still best described as a slightly above average QB.
     
  21. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Can we agree that passer rating is an offensive statistic and not an individual measurement before we move on?
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Passer rating is clearly an offensive statistic, but it is also indicative of individual performance to some degree.

    Ask yourself this question: what percent of passer rating do you think is due to the QB? Clearly the answer isn't zero, so what percent are you comfortable with? Personally I'd put it on average at around 30% or so. Not sure what you like.. again this is subjective so choose what you like.

    But if let's say 30% or so of passer rating is on average due to the QB, then 30% of that result is likely due to the QB ("likely" only because sample size comes into play). That is, by "on average" I really mean "as sample size gets larger".

    So for any single game maybe the QB was 80% responsible or 3% responsible for the final rating.. no one knows. But over time there will be some (unknown) average value that's due to the QB. That's why I keep saying passer rating (and win% and any other team stat) is to X% a QB stat where X = the portion of that stat due to the QB. Of course the X will be different for different team stats.
     
  23. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Excellent. Now if you remember talking about Mike Martz, in similar respects are you familiar with Lazor's offensive scheme?

    As a general question, are you aware of the typical adjustment periods an offense needs to settle within in a new system? It just so happens to correlate with the week 4 bump in production.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No. Please tell us, and also please explain how you know what the typical adjustment period is.
     
  25. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    It just so happens to correlate with the week 4 bump in production. In general there's a 4-6 week grace period, if you will, for offenses to settle into a new system.
     
  26. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    There's no doubt he improved, but it didn't happen in a vacuum. He was also the benefactor of a very soft portion of the schedule and Jay Ajayi. While the latter was feast or famine - it was his presence that defenses game-planned. The biggest test came @ Baltimore when the team really could've controlled its own playoff destiny.

    Don't forget Tanny is also 15 months removed from that stretch of games.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well that's testable I guess. When I have time I can look into it more. But one thing is for certain: it doesn't apply to Mike Martz as OC with Warner. Warner was great right out of the gate. In fact his combined rating for the first 8 games in 1999 was 119.15 while for the last 8 games it was 99.29.
     
  28. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, they ate us for lunch. And when your defense is "built to play with a lead" and you find yourself behind the score board so quickly, it trashed our gameplan and the run game mattered very little. The Ravens played us with predominately 2 and 3 man fronts while dropping 7-8 in coverage.
     
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  29. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    The GSOT was certainly an exception in there. That offense took off very quickly having such great talent all around.

    And there's no guessing or testing really needed. Coaches know that's the general adjustment time period.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No it's a testable statement, and if the data support that fine, but if the data doesn't support it then the hypothesis has to be modified to fit the data. I don't have OC's in my database so I'll do that manually when I have some extra time.
     
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  31. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I have coaching research manuals that support this and there's a Bruce Arian's article somewhere that stats 8 weeks are needed for a new system adjustment for veteran QB's. Why do veteran QB's tend to need longer periods of time? New and rookie QBs tend to grasp it quicker b/c they don't possess they old habits of another system as far as keys and progression reads go.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Why are you so worried about me saying I'll test it? Let's remember you're trying to use the argument there is 4-6 week adjustment period to explain that Tannehill bump! In other words, you're actually saying this should be seen in the data. So.. what are you worried about? I'm not out to prove or disprove you.

    Just relax and let's see what the data actually show :smile:
     
  33. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I'm not worried. Just stating I already have data, research, and a damn good coach to back up those points.
     
  34. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Eli manning said it' 8 weeks to learn a new system. 4 wees is optimistic and I think says a lot about tannehill football iq


    Edit I see you used Arians 8 week guideline. Touche
     
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  35. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Here’s my prediction for the 2018 Dolphins season: the team will suck and the stadium will be empty, as usual.
     
  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You're a treasure to this forum.
     
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  37. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    You know it’s true.
     
  38. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    I don't think they will suck but the stadium will be empty as usual and 60/40 in any type of big game.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK.. I don't know what kind of "evidence" Arians has or what's in those research manuals (maybe you can post the evidence?) but I looked at all cases where there was a HC change from 2000-2017 among AFC teams and plotted the passer rating of the starting QB that year relative to his mean passer rating in that year (minimum 12 starts):
    [​IMG]

    That red line is the average and as you can see there's no "bump" really anywhere. In that graph there are 46 quarterback years plotted (sometimes it was the same QB in two different years), and just keeping track of cases where a QB started off at least as well or better early on with a new HC, you find MANY examples:

    Tyrod Taylor 2015, 2017
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 2010, 2014
    Pennington 2008
    Testaverde 2001
    Pennington 2006
    Roethlisberger 2007
    Brian Hoyer 2014
    Matt Hasselbeck 2011
    David Carr 2006
    Peyton 2002, 2009
    Rivers 2008, 2013
    Derek Carr 2015

    So at least for HC changes there is no evidence of any bump from week 4-6 or week 8, etc.. Now I understand you might want to argue that some HC changes might not have resulting in a drastic change in system, but unless it's true that the great majority of HC changes result in little to no change in system, the effect should show up regardless.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  40. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    https://www.newsday.com/sports/foot...ance-in-new-offense-until-midseason-1.9278334
     

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