And we have our first record prediction for the 2018 season on March 10th! 180 days from the start of the season!
If you watch the films of Landry's TD catches on the season, every single one of them could have gone to Miller, Ajayi or Drake....even Fasano. Hell, Tunsil could have scored on half of them since there was instant contact and Landry just kept pumping his legs. People forget that Landry only went 987 yards last year, with 511 after the catch- you do the math. That's 112 catches within a few yards of the LOS and running another 4-6 yards afterwards....that's what we're celebrating here in Jarvis Landry. Yet when we threw those same routes to Drake or Grant last season, we saw many 20+ yard bursts and a few long TD's. Grant caught 13 passes total for 203 yards with a 15.6 average. Drake caught 32 passes for 239 and a 66 yard TD on one catch. Both of these guys show why speed matters since their adjusted stats based on Landry's targets blow Landry out of the water. With 112 receptions, Grant's season would adjust out to almost 2000 yards and 18 TD's. For every yard Landry traveled this season, Grant went two yards. There's not even something to debate here...we were throwing to the wrong person. Plain and simple, Landry has been a liability to this team for his entire tenure. Gase adjusted the offense to get maximum potential out of Landry but at some point, it became more of a bail-out than anything. We stopped attacking the field almost completely at times to throw Landry screen passes and that's a huge reason why our offense stalled so often. We are a much better team WITHOUT Jarvis Landry and his temper tantrums.
Sure, because it was easy. Dump it off to the tank and he'll scrap out 4 to 6 yards. It sounds like a fantastic way to keep the chains moving....until Landry drops the ball or gets laid out at the LOS. And then the drive is dead while you're wondering how you're suddenly down 17 to zip. Here's what all our receivers look like on 112 catches- Landry 112 catches, 987 yards Grant 1749 yards Stills 1634 yards Parker 1319 yards Carroo 1104 yards Thomas 1059 yards Fasano 998 yards Williams 868 yards Drake 833 yards Landry only beats out Williams and Drake here in yardage (on 112 catches/160 targets)- every single WR was more productive. Like I pointed out in the other post though, Drake busted off a 66 yard TD catch in 2017 (on 32 total catches) and a 45 yard TD in 2016 (on 9 catches). Landry had one long TD on the season (45 yards) with the most catches in the entire league? Even our worst receivers (who happens to be running backs) are a much bigger threat than Landry. Based purely on the stats, Landry was our WORST receiver and we also know that he had the worst attitude. Good riddance if you ask me.
I know how you feel. I am not always confident with the moves of our front office either, but if Tannehill is healthy, I would be very surprised (and disappointed) if we went 5-11.
Good post. A lot of info here. Your correct in most of what you stated - in a yr will be saying Landry who? He also has the disease that can not be allowed in a lockerroom. For Jarvis its not about winning - its about getting paid. He's due a wake up call. Good coaching decision- message sent. When Suh is gone the team will begin to turn. Gonna be a 3.yr process - yep I know
I think he's a great player.....but if half his passes went to other people, then we likely would have won a few more ballgames. And by targeting him less then that also opens up that dreadful screen pass even more. The statistics said that the safe throw was the dump-off to Landry though and that's what we did over and over and over again. So I'm ECSTATIC that we don't have that option for 2018.
Now that I think about it, if half of his passes went to other people, then I'd bet that Landry would still be a Dolphin for around $8-10M a year. And the guy would have only lost around 400 yards while still having around the same amount of TD catches.
With Landrys numbers not sure if hes worth it Would need to look at other teams and what their paying for similar production
does anyone have landry's stats when Drake became the RB, like yac and all that? Since drake was used in the passing game i'm wondering if that Landry got downfield more or less or same. thanks.
I couldn't find it BUT remember that Drake only caught 32 total passes. So the most he could have taken was around 3-4 catches per game...I don't think it's significant enough to worry about. Also, Landry still got most of the red zone passes with Drake on the field (which padded his stats more than anything). Williams had around 10 catches on the year (not going to look it up again...was between 9-12). He only played in a few games though before getting hurt. So maybe in those 2 games, Williams absorbed up to 4-5 passes that would have gone another receiver's way.
Here's one way of comparing Landry's value to other WR's. Take the average yearly salaries of all WR's that make at least $11 mil from this list (except Landry): https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/ That's 14 wide receivers. Now find the best-fitting lines between Salary (S) and all kinds of metrics, such as Yards (Y), Yards per Target (YT), Yards per Reception (YR), Touchdowns (TD), Touchdowns per Target (TDT), Touchdowns per Reception (TDR), and Yards per Game (YG). Those best fitting lines are: Y = 77.65*S + 8 YT = 0.171*S + 5.476 YR = 0.364*S + 8.66 TD = 0.93*S - 5.82 TDT = 0.0043*S - 0.0088 TDR = 0.008*S - 0.0218 YG = 5.545*S - 5.51 To see what a salary of let's say 15 mil per year should produce, just plug in S = 15 and you get: Y = 1173 YT = 8.04 YR = 14.12 TD = 8.13 TDT = 0.0557 (5.57%) TDR = 0.0982 (9.82%) YG = 77.67 Landry's average "per year" stats: Y = 1009.5 YT = 7.084 YR = 10.1 TD = 5.5 TDT = 0.0386 (3.86%) TDR = 0.055 (5.5%) YG = 63.1 As one can see.. EVERY SINGLE STAT is worse. What would Landry's "projected salary" be given each stat? Solve for S = salary in those equations using Landry's stats and you get the following: Y = 12.9 mil YT = 9.4 mil YR = 3.96 mil (not a typo) TD = 12.2 mil TDT = 11 mil TDR = 9.6 mil YG = 12.4 mil Clearly Landry isn't worth what he was asking.
Somehow I knew you'd show up, see my simple math, and then trump me with much more complex math. =) What you did was interesting though because it completely lies- the 3.86% TD per target and number of TD's more-so than the others. Plain and simple, we are a bad red zone team and our best solution was to throw a screen to Landry while crossing our fingers. If you take those short TD plays away (say we throw to Carroo instead), only 2 of your 7 factors command a 12+ million dollar salary. My point here is that if you erase 7 total plays from 2017, Landry is a $4-6M/year player. So he's essentially demanding an extra million plus for short TD's in the red zone that a different receiver/back set up. And like I said, Cutler/Tannehill/Moore easily could have thrown those same passes to Parker, Stills, Fasano or whoever if we weren't designing plays around helping Landry succeed.
It's not just for Landry that you could say "if we took X or Y into account those numbers would be worse (or better)". You can play games like that for almost every player. Thing is.. different people will disagree on which data points to remove if you go that route, and there's real value to NOT removing data points even if something looks like an outlier. So I think it's better if one just uses a single set of criteria for all WR's. It's also interesting that all those projected values are between 9.4 and 12.9 mil (with that one exception for Yards per Reception). And the median of all those numbers is 11 mil. I personally think those are reasonable numbers for Landry, even given how we use him. I mean.. however we use him in the end it's the production that matters.
Did it ever materialize as a strength? They were always described as a high potential WR core. But that seemed like it mostly hinged on Parker stepping into that true #1 role and that just didn't happen.
Good stuff The one not a typo indicates to me he's a dump off player who after contact goes no where. Seems to be a huge disparity there. How much of that production or lack there of is play design (systems) I would bet is 60/40 to Landrys detriment. He may find a tough time getting the money he wants.
Well you're leaving out the fact that it would take Stills 203 Targets to equal 112 receptions Parker 189 targets to equal 112 receptions Caroo 193 targets to equal 112 receptions Grant 190 targets to equal 112 receptions Arguably based purely on stats Parker was our worst WR as a 6'4 WR with 96 targets he only had 1 TD all year. His target to td ratio was the worst on the team last year. Thomas, Drake, Williams, Grant, Fasano all had more or equal TD's as Parker on far fewer targets.
Landry is a great receiver, not going to take anything away from his abilities but let’s be completely honest, he’s a short yardage receiver. He doesn’t break a post or go route for 30+ yards. He’s not that big receiver that goes up battling a DB for that big pass or touchdown play. If you need a 7 yard or less play, Landry was money and was definitely your guarantee but that in itself becomes the problem. If I’m paying $16 million to a receiver I want that big threat. I want that Julio Jones or Dez Bryant threat and Landry didn’t present THAT kind of threat.
Yes. Money isn't everything to me. I choose to live where I want and if I make less in the process I am okay with that. Of course, Landry is free to do what he wants, but I wouldn't take more money to live in Cleveland if my other choice was to take less and live in Miami. He could still provide for his family, and then some, in either situation. I believe he is basing his decision on pride. I have made decisions in the past where I let my pride get in the way and still feel bad about my decision today after many, many years.
He's not a gamebreaker and you don't pay a guy $16 million per if he isn't. I do want to say that he was a damn good blocker for a WR - which is unaccounted for in his stats. That part will definitely be missed.
I agree with you- you can't eliminate certain data points and still have an objective outcome...I understand that. What I was referring to was Cutler/Gase making that decision to feed Landry the ball in the red zone. If THEY chose to throw those routes to someone other than Landry, then his value would be considerably less. Three of your seven criteria are based on TD's, but obviously all TD's aren't equal in terms of value. Stills or Grant catching a 60 yard TD pass is a lot more impressive than Landry scoring a TD on a 4-yard screen, for example. We can't throw that 60 yard bomb to Landry because he can't get open deep...yet we certainly could have thrown that screen pass to Grant, Stills or anyone. That's all I meant.
Well, we can play that two ways though. If we didn't land in the bottom of the league for 3 and outs due to all those short passes to Landry getting blown up, then we would have had the opportunity for a lot more targets. That's why I just went with straight receptions
This. If we are talking more than 12ish million - let alone 14-16, he better be a threat to house it every time he touches the ball. Not many of those out there. AB, Julio, Green, Evans, Beckham, Hopkins.
Referring to Landry not getting deep, I've mentioned that we always use the s--t OL as an excuse or reason for some of Tanny's problems and rightfully so, then, if that were true, it would be the same problem for other aspects of the team. How's everyone supposed to get deep on a somewhat regular basis when the QB has two seconds before he gets creamed? Boomer even recently said that he knows Gase doesn't put a high value on Guards because he wants the ball out in 2 seconds. So? I understand this is all very frustrating and we all have to find a way to rationalize losing our best playmaker, but like I said before, blame Tanenshmuck. Get the pitchforks out. This stuff, unfortunately, does happen. Just look forward to the possibilities of finally doing things the right way and finally having success. What else can we do?
I mean if you compare Tannehill to Cutler to similar QB's I would say the issue on 3rd downs was the QB not the WR. 2016 Tannehill and contemporaries on 3rd downs Tannehill 118 attempts 43 1st downs 36.4%--7.5 y/a Carr 137 attempts and 49 1st downs 35.7%--6.6 y/a Newton 119 attempts and 47 1st downs 39.4%--7.4 y/a Flacco 149 attempts and 53 1st downs 35.5%--6.9 y/a Wilson 113 attempts and 42 1st downs 37.1%--7.4 y/a Smith 100 attempts and 35 1st downs 35%--5.8 y/a 2017 Cutler Cutler 110 attempts 34 1st downs 30.9%--5.8 y/a
The only problem with that analysis is that the cap is raising almost every year leading to inflation in salaries. Remember when people complained when Tannehill’s salary made him a top 5 QB? Yet a few years later his salary is a complete bargain (assuming a normal comback from injury). The way I prefer to look at it is to go through his TD catches and ask yourself “would Davon Bess have scored that TD?”. Using that criteria I get that Jarvis Landry is worth about +2-3 TDs a year over a Davon Bess type player.
Yeah that analysis was only looking at current value based on 2017 numbers. Suppose you want to take inflation into account and sign Landry to a 4 year deal. Over the last 4 years (2014-2017) the salary cap has increased from $133 million to $167 million, or about a 25.6% increase. You want to take half that value when taking inflation into account (i.e. the average increase over a 4 year period) so projected salary should be 12.8% higher. Higher than what? Well.. the mean of those numbers is 10.2 and the median is 11. A 12.8% increase from 10.2 gives you $11.5 mil, and a 12.8% increase from 11 gives you $12.4 mil. So including inflation, I'd say a fair price for Landry for a 4 year deal based on the numbers in post #136 is anywhere between $11.5 mil and $12.4 mil.
Based on whats being said, it's not really an out there or controversial opinion. Julio Jones is a playmaker. Landry isn't. ****, for what he was asking trade for Leveon Bell. But sure, be mad.
Should have locked this dude up sooner when it would have been cheaper. Tannenbaum falling asleep at the wheel "managed to get us" a 4th and 7th, for a guy we used a 2nd round pick to get.