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How much of a Diva was Landry?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PlayinHarder, Jun 6, 2018.

  1. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    It’s all good. Anyone who considers the offense ask and games to be similar with regards to Wilson and Aaron Rodgers I don’t need to be explaining myself to anyways.
     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Who said they were similar in what their offense asks them to do, I sure as hell didn’t..not sure where you got confused on that..

    I really dont know if your just making an observation or if your criticizing Wilson.. make your point man

    Who the hell cares what their offense asks, they both are great qbs, both accomplished, both excellent in isolation at their craft, both as highly rated as it gets and both on their way to the hall of fame with their current play.

    And if anyone can’t see that and admit it then their missing something in the eval Dept, or they had a bad eval on the guy coming out of college and their still trying to make excuses for how he got so damn good.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2018
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  3. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I've always considered the QB rating to be specific to passing ability, and I'm fine with that metric. If you believe that your QB made the right choice to run with it, then they help their rating by not adding an incomplete or worse an interception to their numbers. Once you get too many variables added in the answers become a lot less reliable.

    Now I'm not suggesting that a QB rating should stand on its own, I think surrounding talent, running ability, and even strength of opponent is worth a look when you are actually evaluating someone. You might even have to bring up running styles. I remember when Michael Vick was the big thing here in Atlanta. The Offensive line was constantly getting called out for not being a good blocking O-line. The problem was the O-line never knew where Vick was so they were handling their blocks correctly IF Vick stayed in pocket. So this was at least one case where the running QB was a bit of a double edged sword.
     
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  4. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    if you aren't accounting for situational play Ie distance to the sticks etc then the whole thing is pointless

    now obviously some qbs are more adept at staying ahead of the sticks than others but I don't care if you are tom brady aaron Rodgers or any other considered top shelf qb if you live in 3rd and 8 plus all season long due to things outside of the qb like for example o line play or incompetent play caller/scheme your numbers are gonna suffer.
     
  5. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I know my original rebuttal was that Rodgers/Wilson are who they are because of their system, and they would not be in a “different” one.

    I disagree strongly with that.
     
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  6. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I think that is a testament to how great R. Wilson is. He has had the worst collective pass blocking OL of any QB the last 5-6 years.

    However the first 3, he did have a top flight running game and that may have saved him while he developed from being ruined like so many others.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. any QB rating system will be incomplete because you can always argue it's not taking X or Y into account. You brought up one such issue (QB's legs) but the bigger issue is accounting for surrounding cast. There's no way to do that using statistics alone for offensive personnel (though one can try a bit if it's the running back.. can't do it for OL or WR's and certainly not coach). However, one CAN adjust for defense.

    I've done that on a case by case basis before but never for all QB's like I did in post #414 for adjusted passer rating.

    So give me a few days and I'll give you a rating system using z-scores that should basically tell you how good the passing offenses led by different QB's were after adjusting for the defenses they played with. And I think that's the best way to describe it: "passing offenses led by a given QB" rather than "QB".
     
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  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That will always be the issue. I don't believe that any QB can succeed regardless of what he has around him. To some extent every QB is a system QB. (Even Marino, despite that never verified quote often attributed to Walsh). IMO Rodgers is the best QB I've ever seen, but I also have no doubt that he would have struggled if forced to start right out of the gate and perhaps never became the QB he is now. Probably something similar to what Steve Young showed. He went from looking like a bust to a GOAT when his situation improved and he had some time to develop. IMO the coaching situation Tannehill has had in Miami prior to Gase has been horrid. Other than Cleveland, I don't believe there's been a worse overall situation (coaching, OL, WRs, defense, etc.) in the league during Tannehill's tenure. I don't believe any QB would have succeeded in that situation.
     
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  9. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I don’t think that is the issue at hand.

    I just am having a hard time believing that Aaron Rodgers isn’t Aaron Rodgers without friggin Mike McCarthy.
     
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  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah that’s a crock of sh## right there..
     
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  11. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    seattle has tailored its offense around Russell Wilson more than green bay has around aaron Rodgers.

    Rodgers is a pocket qb that is also a threat with his legs. not vice versa.

    wilsons legs and the threat of them are still his meal ticket. it drives the play calls it drives the offensive concepts in the run and pass game and it drives the way defenses play the seahawks separate from the sticks dictating most everything in football on both sides of the ball. sure he's an accomplished 4 vertical iso passer (which as a result rarely means any shell or help coverage to date) and he drops a pretty deep ball dime and has other strengths. but green bay isn't dialing up a lot of zone read or really any that I can recall with Rodgers as a potential primary ball carrier (not cam newton level primary ball carrier mind you who the panthers even use on power). and I guess this is where I can drop the "if you can't see it on tape"...(maybe polish up your concepts understanding)

    I can't explain it any more. I didn't drop some one liner garbage.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2018
  12. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Well to be fair, I think Aaron Rodgers isn't fit for the zone read kind of goes without saying.

    It was said he would struggle in the EP, which in my humble ignorant idiotic opinion is laughable at best.
     
  13. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    correct. that's because he's a different kind of threat with his legs. more pocket fit qb. in terms of pre snap and progression read no I don't think it would be ideal for his game but I think he'd adapt and be a plus qb. I just don't think he'd be quite the level he is in the system he's in now. which fits his strengths very well.

    but I don't think tom brady in a more true pro style 3 5 or 7 step drop o would be where he is either. so obviously you are gonna fit the o to the qbs strengths to an extent. but when a guy relies on his legs to drive a lot of things and dictate to the opposition and drive how they play them he better not lose them...cause when he does if he doesn't have a pocket read counter he ends up rg3.

    or you better dial up a lot of run pass option with the qb as a non ball carrier and maintain the sticks and hope like heck that the nfl defenses don't catch up with it's concepts. which I believe they will in time. just like they have everything else not called pro style or pocket progression.

    best way to hide these things elite level defense and run game. seattle for basically the last 5 plus years. minus 2017 when the d came back down to earth late due to attrition and the run game lacked pop. and not surprisingly seattle went home after week 17.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2018
  14. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I agree with all of the above.

    I just think bringing up zone read as an example of a system Brady or Rodgers wouldn’t be as effective in is kind of moot. Rodgers may be able to run it, but he would be on the IR every season.

    Certainly valid for R.Wilson however.
     
  15. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    it's the difference in concepts more than anything else. brady and Rodgers meal ticket is pocket qb play.
     
  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not sure anyone in this thread needs explaining but ok, if you wish..

    The topic is quite irrelevant imo considering the players skills and accomplishments..like what is being argued, who is more elite..
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wilson is incredibly nuanced as to how to avoid hits, anticipation skills keeps him always one step ahead.
     
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  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Seattle going home didn’t have anything to do with Wilson’s play..
     
  19. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    at no point have I argued who is more elite. and if I'm gonna make a point I'm gonna explain it. not one liner drive by it and hope it sticks. I don't operate like that.

    if you ask me who has more shelf life at a higher level clip I'm gonna side with the pocket option every time. cause it doesn't matter if guys legs go who are pocket qbs. they aren't relying on them to carry the rest of their game.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2018
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. Exactly. That's what he's saying. When the defense and run game weren't there, Wilson and the Seahawks weren't as successful.
     
  21. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I would say the Seahawks weren't as successful....Wilson has been amazing and by far the best QB in a draft that had many Qb's go before him including 3 top 10 guy's.

    In fact you the 2nd best Qb in that draft was Kirk Cousins, a second rounder. Although i think Ryan has a good chance to catapult up into the top 2-3 of that draft class after this season.
     
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  22. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Landry is at it again, bad mouthing the Dolphins.
    https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sport...miami-dolphins-routes/hAt1hMwStQhFqn8My3WSNI/
    https://phinphanatic.com/2018/07/27/former-miami-dolphins-receiver-takes-shots-dolphins/

    Not wanting to take issue with the specifics of what Landry said, I am now very glad we didn’t re-sign him.
    1) He obviously feels resentful about the way he was treated, that bad feeling wasn’t going to go away with a new contract.
    2) The fact that he is still complaining about it going into training camp with a new team tells me that his head is in the wrong place. Especially since he would have had advice to the effect of “Let it go, man.”. If I were a Browns’ fan I’d be worried about his performance for the next season.
    3) The tenor of his complaints gives me the feeling the man has an enhanced sense of entitlement, which means it will be almost impossible to keep him happy in the long run.
     
  23. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Loved the guy as a player ON THE FIELD for this team (unless he was doing something stupid)... but wow... he's got to get himself together. He's lost his damn mind. Shut your mouth and play ball. You got your money. Who cares where you got it. You got far more than you're worth. Shut up and play the damn game. Getting sick of these athletes complaining over millions...
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK.. took some time, but I think I can give you the best adjusted career passer ratings I've done so far. As a reminder, post #414 took the passer rating for each year, adjusted it to 2017, then weighted them by passing attempts. Those are the ratings I'd go by if you don't want to adjust for defense. What I did below adjusts those ratings for defense. And wow.. there are some serious surprises, some you might like some you won't.

    Anyway, since I used z-scores to adjust (i.e. standard deviations above/below the mean), I can go back further than 1978, so this goes all the way back to the 1970 merger. Didn't want to go back earlier than that because I'd rather not combine AFL stats with NFL ones to create an artificial merger.

    Methodology: For each QB, calculate the z-score for his passer rating for each year. Now calculate the z-score for points allowed by his defense that year. The correlation between passer rating z-score and points allowed z-score is 0.3043, and because both axes are in the same units (z-scores) that's also the slope of the best-fitting line. So, take the z-score for passer rating and subtract from it 0.3043 times the z-score for points allowed. That gives you defense-adjusted z-score passer rating for each year. Finally, weight those z-scores by attempts per year to get a career defense-adjusted z-score passer rating. And so it's easier to understand, translate those weighted z-scores into 2017 passer ratings.

    I'm going to list the top 15 QB's and separate by attempts

    Final results (4000+ attempts):
    Steve Young: 103.98
    Aaron Rodgers: 100.88
    Joe Montana: 100.22
    Kurt Warner: 99.34
    Peyton Manning: 98.91
    Drew Brees: 98.5
    Tony Romo: 97.42
    Dan Fouts: 97.36
    Ken Anderson: 96.6
    Dan Marino: 96.4
    Tom Brady: 95.96

    For 3000-4000 attempts:
    Neil Lomax: 97.31
    Duante Culpepper: 95.38

    2000-3000 attempts:
    Roger Staubach: 98.88
    Bert Jones: 97.3

    So, even after adjusting for defense, it looks like #1 is Steve Young and by quite a bit over 2nd place Aaron Rodgers. Otherwise, I'm sure a lot of people will love to see Tom Brady at #11 for 4000+ attempts rather than higher. Some less talked about guys in top 10: Fouts and Anderson. Why? Well, first their ratings were pretty good relative to their time, and second they played with bad defenses. For example, look at league average vs. Fouts' ratings and his defensive rankings:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FoutDa00.htm
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sdg/index.htm

    Fouts played with an absolutely ****ty defense most of the time, so that helps him in this case. And Ken Anderson's ratings were really high when adjusted (most over 100 ratings if adjusted to 2017).

    One guy the defense-adjusted ratings hurt: Russell Wilson! Sorry dj, but he falls to #29 if you include all QB's with 2000+ passing attempts. He's played with such a fantastic defense that it hurts him statistically (4 years straight ranked #1 by points allowed, then #3 by points allowed the next year.. that's the most impressive 5-year run ever seen).


    So.. that's it lol. I'm sure there's stuff everyone won't like in there, but at least it's a purely objective approach. Like I said earlier, this is best described as a ranking of "passing offenses led by a QB, adjusted for defense". So the one thing it doesn't adjust for is surrounding cast on offense. Not a bad idea to start with this list and then ask yourself how much you'd change the rankings based on your perception of offensive surrounding cast.
     
  25. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    And people just refuse to understand how good of a QB Tony Romo was. And why? BS media perceptions that still haunt today.

    Nice work, Cbrad.
     
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  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m really a fan of you.. I think you should be in this industry in some capacity..ridiculously smart..
     
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  27. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But C-brad, none of this accounts for what qbs do to help their offense with their legs..

    Russel Wilson has over 3,000 yards rushing with almost a 6 yard average per carry..think about that..man..

    We cannot just dismiss the impact and tangible production this has on defense..

    Give me Steve Young and Roger Staubach all day..
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yup, I agree it doesn't account for QB rushing so take that only as a measure of passing offenses led by a QB, adjusted for defense of course. Like I said earlier it's not difficult from a mathematical point of view to include QB running ability, it's just that getting the data (from all QB's.. for proper comparisons) is a ton of work.
     
  29. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    I feel he's looked at that way for a few bad plays in big games and in the end it's all about winning the big games.
     
  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Sadly.

    Dude had an 8-2 TD/INT ratio and a 93 rating in the postseason. Teams were 2-4 in the playoffs but he really had only 2 games you could say it was his fault.

    Also one of the best 4th Qtr QB's the league has ever seen.

    Never understood the hate that guy got. He was a helluva player.
     
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  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    The ability to extend drives with their legs and decision making is why Ive always been so high on Alex Smith and was so high on Case Keenum last year.

    You never truly feel the extrociating agony of what a mobile QB can do to you mentally converting 3rd downs with their legs unless you are a player on defense? Or if you bet AGAINST that particular team.

    Those types of small things imo are game changers.
     
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  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed O, always respected smith and I think Case is being disrespected by a lot of folks who just think what he did last year was a fluke.. dude can play..

    The new breeds in the league have the skillet to beat you both ways, we will have to deal with one in San Darnold for the next ten years
     
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  33. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I lived in Cincinnati when Ken Anderson was the Bengals QB. I was a big fan then and I still am. I'm not surprised to see his name come up in an QB review like this.

    He had a great arm, could throw a 60 yard pass in the air, on target without making his receiver break stride. He had an excellent touch which would make balls easier for receivers to catch in inclement weather. Chris Collingsworth, the NFL announcer, was one of his receivers and can tell you more about him. He was smart, quick, a good runner when he needed to be and tough as nails.

    The protective jacket QB's wear under their jerseys was originally called the Anderson jacket, since he was the first QB to wear one. I once saw him fake a defensive rusher out of his shoe! You had to be tough when you played Pittsburg and Cleveland twice a year in the seventies and eighties. We called it the black & blue league. He should be in the hall of fame, but he kept his mouth shut, worked hard and did not look for the limelight. I see a lot of Ken Anderson's best traits in Ryan Tannehill. Tall, strong and silent.
     
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  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Steve Young had over 4000 yards rushing at nearly 6 yards a carry. It’s a little difficult to work out because he missed a lot of starts to injury or being a backup, but it works out at about 4.5 rush attempts per game started.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    While we're on the subject of what's left out of those ratings, I think the most obvious one is longevity.

    In some sense there should be two rating systems, one for efficiency (that's what I posted for QB-led passing in post #464) and one for added wins over career. I mean longevity does matter. I'll just post those too for reference.

    Added wins over career (after adjusting for defense):
    1. Peyton Manning = 48 wins
    2. Drew Brees = 46.1 wins
    3. Tom Brady = 35.4 wins
    4. Dan Marino = 35 wins
    5. Joe Montana = 30.2 wins
    6. Steve Young = 28.9 wins
    7. Aaron Rodgers = 28.6 wins
    8. Dan Fouts = 25.4 wins
    9. Brett Favre = 25 wins
    10. Philip Rivers = 21.5 wins

    So efficiency wise Steve Young is the best, but in terms of overall added wins it's Peyton Manning.

    In case anyone wants to know the calculations, adding +1 extra z-score in passer rating comes out to about 2 extra wins per season, so you first calculate average extra wins per season from the defense-adjusted career passer ratings, then multiply by total passing attempts, and then divide by average passing attempts per team per season in 2017 (since these are 2017-adjusted ratings) to get those numbers.

    And so it's clear, those added wins do take into account the defense because the ratings in #464 are the QB's expected career ratings adjusted to 2017 had he played with an average defense every year.
     
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  36. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Wow really surprising to see Rodgers so low. Dude you seriously need to run your own website, you already have a solid fanbase in this site that know's your work and would pay to view it. This stuff should be archived for later generations.
     
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  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    A new article on Landry caught my attention today for three reasons-

    1) It quoted our boy Travis

    2) Landry said Gase treated him horrible....which if you really read between the lines, you'll understand why Landry was traded.

    3) It states that Cleveland is using Landry as a WR1 split to the outside running the entire route tree.

    Here's the full article- https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ulture-begged-adam-gase-for-bigger-route-tree
     
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  38. fin13

    fin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nice for Travis
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Thanks for the compliments, but I'm just doing this as a hobby. That might change if I ever think of a novel approach that demonstrably works better than current methods. But the stuff I'm doing is nothing more than standard stuff in statistics, except that it's done right lol (unlike a lot of NFL stats sites out there).

    btw.. if I did come up with a better approach I'd publish it in a scientific journal, not try to circumvent that process like these other guys. The research paper route has more credibility and staying power long term and would help attract others (with skills) to the field. It also means the method is transparent.. and free lol. Keeping it free is important btw because you have to get as many people to use/rely on your method as possible.
     
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  40. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I would love to see you take some of this fantastic work and see what you could formulate in picking outcomes vs the Vegas set spread.

    It’s a huge challenge obviously because like 10 people on the planet can pick 57% winners in the NFL over an extended period of time. I certainly can not, but it’s fun trying to get close.
     
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