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My biggest concern going into camp

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Jul 25, 2018.

  1. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    As training camp is upon us, many of Dolphins' fans have expressed some of the same concerns about our roster. DT, LB, boundary corner, and TE seem to be just about everyone's concern, but one really sticks out to me.


    The defensive tackle position despite being unproven in many regards scares me the least. Between our youngsters and veterans and Hayes position flexibility, I think two guys will eventually emerge as starters. I have long thought that due to Phillips' large frame, it wears him out more easily and that is why you see inconsistent play. I see him as a better rotational guy than a pure starter. Moreover, I envision the worst case scenario is that only one guy truly locks down the starter position, and we sign a vet on the last wave of cuts. I feel confident that a quality caliber vet would be available.


    I really think that by the end of the season Xavien Howard will be seen as an elite CB. That being said, there is some uncertainty around the second boundary CB. With word out that Bobby McCain may moonlight as a boundary CB in certain situations, again, I think that this situation will work itself out. It sounds like it is Tankersley's job to lose, and the staff would really like him to win the job. In terms of measurable, he has the makings of a solid starter. That being said, Lippett is returning, and the converted WR has always exceeded expectations. Those WR hands helped him out in the turnover department giving his game an upside. Again, I think that this will work itself out.


    After signing Mike Gesicki and Durham Smythe, it looked like TE was locked and loaded. After word of Gesicki looking lost earlier in the offseason and Smythe appeared slow, panic set in. There is a real chance that these two rookies may not be able to contribute early. We do have Derby and Gray who are serviceable, and I full concede that it would be devastating if Gesicki did not win the starting job. But even if that does become a reality, both Smythe and Gesicki could carve out situational roles early on in their careers. Signing a veteran would be unlikely if this reality hits as the front office would likely hope that Gesicki would eventually win the starting position at some point in the season. This position could disappoint early on, but expect the coaching staff to be patient, and eventually, the position should improve as the season progresses.


    This gets me to my biggest concern, the LB unit. Both the expectations and overall consensus from both fans and the front is that McMillan will be a solid starter for the Dolphins. Here is the rub. Not every draft pick is a slam dunk. Even first rounders bust. He has not played a down in the NFL and so much rests on his shoulders. If he is anything less than a good LB, we are in trouble. Kiko got picked on last year, and I do agree that sliding him outside would be in his best interest, but there is a very real possibility that he regressed. We acquired Anthony, but in fairness in doing so, the Saints ominously gave up on a former first rounder. We signed the undersized Baker, and I do see the wisdom in this pick. His speed could be a real asset in coverage situations especially vs. teams like the Patriots that like to use RBs as WRs. There is a real chance that he is a situational player. Furthermore, Kiko has had injury problems in the past, and McMillan is coming off of an injury.


    I am genuinely concerned that there is a very real chance the cupboard may be far more empty than it may seem. Additionally, I worry that it may be difficult to find a starter even in the final wave of cuts.
     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree on the importance of Raekwon, if that kid isn’t fully recovered our something goes wrong with that knee, our defense is gonna be in trouble..
     
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  3. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Miami had the best DT in football the last few years. I think it's an overrated position.
     
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  4. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I’m with you on x. Only thing he has to be careful of is being stacked by vertical speed.

    I don’t buy the Bobby mccain boundary stuff. I think that’s tank and lippetts gig all the way. If we do roll with Bobby out there we better score a lot to help hide the exposure.
     
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  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I am actually more worried about the WR position. The gap between potential and production is very worrisome. If our WRs play to potential this will be a great unit.

    The DBs are showing signs of improvement and growing pains. The WRs have been more inconsistent.
     
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  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  7. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    For the first time, I feel incredibly comfortable with our WR group. To be completely honest, I think Parker is probably our third best WR. He obviously starts because he still has tremendous upside. He has that great blend of size, speed, and strength. In a sense, continuing to believe in him at least makes some sense. If things ever clicked, he could be AJ Green.

    Stills gives us a great deep threat possibility. I don't think that he will ever be the focus of the offense, but he sure is reliable. If he could develop a chemistry with RT and his improving deep ball, he could help give the offense a vertical component. For a speed guy, he sure does a good job at finding holes in the end zone.

    I think that Danny Amendola becomes the new Landry in the sense that the passing offense runs through him. When healthy, he brings reliable hands that can help move the chains. Both Gase and RT love to use the slot receiver. Don't be shocked if he leads the team in receptions.

    Okay, I fully admit that we overpaid for Albert Wilson. His salary is what it is, but he is a solid player with elite speed. Call it a hunch, but I think that this signing had Gase's fingerprints all over it. If you watched any Dolphins' games at all last year, you know that Gase really wants to run WR screens. For whatever reason, the Miami WR corps simply could not do this. Wilson is a shifty runner that can make defenders miss and is great in space. Look for him to be a situational slot WR, and to get starter time when Amendola inevitably gets hurt.

    Finally, we have Jakeem Grant who has far exceeded my expectations. His rookie year, I did not think that he was deserving of a roster spot, but by the end of last year, his stock was way up. I think he is a poor man's Albert Wilson, and if the coaching staff is creative, they should be able to carve out a nice little niche for him. I'd like to see him get 5 offensive snaps per game with two plays designed to get him the ball.

    Despite the negative early outlooks from Mike Gesicki and the fact that Derby is our starting TE in camp, I do expect to see Gesicki involved more in the offense at some point in the season. The absolute worst case scenario with him is that he carves out a niche as red zone specialist. I never understood why we shied away from throwing Parker fades in the end zone, but Gesicki's ability to soar will surely get him his fair share of red zone targets.

    Finally, to further alleviate your worries, I have thought through a possible negative scenario. Suppose Parker disappoints yet again. I think you could start to see more WR sets with Stills, Wilson, and Amendola. I think you could see our offense take on some West Coast Offense characteristics. I would expect to start to see a lot of slants out of the shotgun. In this "negative scenario," we have three of our receivers doing something that they are pretty darn good at. Furthermore, we have our QB doing what he does best - throw intermediate passes. I absolutely love it when a coach asks his players to do what they are best at. To me, that's a winning recipe.

    I think our WR unit is gonna be just fine.
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I share your concerns at LB, but then again McMillian felt like one of our surest picks in a very long time. He has always played fast and aggressive so I'm really crossing my fingers that he comes back 100% healthy. You have to remember that last season he was a projected 2nd stringer on day one of camp, yet stood out so much he climbed the depth chart in a single week. If he's healthy I'm confident that we will see that same attitude this season.
     
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  9. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    My biggest concern is WR's. Stills is not very consistent game to game or even quarter to quarter. Parker disappears for stretches at a time sometimes whole seasons. Amendola is old and injury prone. Wilson is a product of the system and had super star players to draw attention in Hill, Kelce, and hunt not to mention Andy Reid is an offensive genius. Grant reminds me of players like Dante Hall, and Roscoe Parrish...fast and all but speed does not make a WR. I feel he'll have a career like them, nothing special. Gisecki is a rookie TE and history says he'll just be ok year 1.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2018
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  10. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Don’t know if it’s necessarily a concern given our wr depth but the biggest takeaway I have through 2 days is caroo is running with the 3rd team.

    He’s becoming a candidate for Miami floating in trade with no takers and a eventual camp cut.
     
  11. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Since our units play together, I prefer to look at situations instead. As with all teams we have holes and could use to improve in every area on our team; however, I think if we can just improve in these areas (below) we could really improve our win/lose record*.

    1) Improve our 3rd down defense and get off the field (CK was one who pointed this out months ago as one of our biggest weaknesses last year.)
    2) Penalties, we need to be more focused and disciplined. A lot of this was on Tunsil, wasn't it? False starts are drive killers. You only get so many a game. We need to take advantage of every one.
    3) Green zone offense. Getting on Bokamper's green zone movement. Whether the ball is actually thrown to them or not, TE's should be a big part of our offense and really help us keep the defense honest.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2018
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  12. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO if Wilson had been here last year instead of Landry, he would have had as many catches and more yards. While I believe that KC did a good job on the play designs for him, it was also clear that he got separation on his own. In fact, he was better at getting separation than Landry was and while he didn't make highlight catches, he did make contested catches. I don't agree that he was a product of having other stars draw attention. I would say that the other stars limited his usage.

    Amendola missed 6 games in the last 4 years. I would not call that injury prone. He had a stretch prior to that where he was missing more games annually so I see this as one of those narratives that get embedded and repeated even if it's no longer true.

    Grant reminds me of Tyreke Hill. Likewise, he'll never be a high volume guy, but he'll be highly efficient.

    I don't trust Parker, but he has been productive. Stills is consistent and productive. WR is way down my list of concerns going into this season.
     
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  13. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    It's clearly the Linebacker unit for me. When you go into a season praying for another Zach Thomas miracle at the position, you are in trouble. It's completely unknown how this unit is going to perform.
     
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  14. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    My concerns would be Tannehills legs and the defense. If Tannehill is mobile enough to stay out of trouble the WR group will look good. LB is the acelease tendon in what I see.
     
  15. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Defensive front. Just about the entire lot of them concerns me.
     
  16. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    The same way I wouldn't want the Phins to pay Landry 15 million per, I wouldn't want them to pay 8 million per for a guys whose career higher are 554 yards 42 receptions and 3 tds. That's not 8 million a year production, especially for a guy who would have never sniffed those numbers if Chris Conley didn't get injured.

    Amendola has only played 16 games twice in 9 years. Yep that's injury prone. Now I forget if you're injury prone and on the wrong side of 30 does it get easier or harder to stay healthy and is the recovery time shorter or longer?

    Tyreke Hill had a Pro Bowl season last year he had 75 catches 1183 yards and 7 TD's and didn't even play a full season. He did that all while having only 9 more targets than Parker. Besides Grant and Hill both being fast WR's in the NFL thats where the similarities end.

    Parker produces mediocre numbers that does not make him a productive WR.
     
  17. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think a single team would be willing to give up anything for Carroo. In two years, he has 10 catches and has barely seen the field.

    Here is the other thing. No one cares when he was drafted or what we gave up to get him. GMs are thinking, "You traded up to get him, and he hasn't seen the field. That's your problem." We aren't getting bailed out of this situation.

    At this point, I am more optimistic that Isiah Ford can develop into an impact player. It is going to be hard for quite a few WRs to make this team.

    Roster Locks:
    Stills
    Parker
    Amendola
    Wilson

    My guess is that we carry five WRs. So these guys are battling it out.

    Grant (Special teams value)
    Carroo
    Ford

    I think there are only two ways Carroo or Ford make it:

    #1 - Injury of another WR
    #2 - Carroo Ford are playing so well, AND it appears that we can get Grant's special teams production from another player. (Perhaps someone like Ballage or Drake could fill this void.)
     
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  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I would put Grant in that "lock" category as well, regardless if it's special teams or offense. He is our most efficient receiver by a country mile and he's used perfectly in my opinion. Give him 4-6 touches a game and keep him on special teams the rest of the day.
     
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  19. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    He would be really tough to beat out.

    Ford vs. Grant is a really odd camp battle if you break it down. It is like comparing apples and cucumbers.

    First of all, I completely agree with your assessment that Grant is primarily a special teams player with those few designed touches on offense.

    Ford on the other hand is a boundary WR that needs to show that he could be a full time contributor or at least be able to step in Stills or Parker were to miss any time due to injury. At this point in his career, I almost have grown to expect that Parker will miss some time due to injury.

    Take a look at our WR corps:

    Amendola
    Wilson
    Grant
    Morgan

    These guys are all slot receivers. Additionally, Stills has "slotish" qualities, and the Phins have said that they will at times work him out of the slot. It is safe to say, that if we lost a slot WR, it would be easy to replace him, right?

    But, let's say we lost Parker for the season. Who is going to play outside? Wilson and Grant are so short. I guess it would have to be Amendola, but that would be less than ideal. This is where Ford and Carroo make their appeal for a roster spot. They are more suited to step into that role. We could try and stash Ford on the practice squad. But the better Ford plays, the more likely that he will be claimed. It is almost paradoxical.

    I do think you are right that Grant is highly likely to make the team unfortunately for Ford and Carroo. Carrying 6 WRs seems a bit unlikely too because it appears that Gesicki is not ready to start. We may start the season with an extra tight end if one of the rookies don't step up. We could also be inclined to keep an extra DB because of some surprising talent in undrafted free agents.

    Here are the locks to make the team as corner:
    Howard
    Tankersley
    Lippett
    McCain
    Aikens (just signed an extension and excels on special teams)

    Here are guys fighting to make the team:
    Jalen Davis (has looked good early)
    Torry McTyer (got first team reps)
    Jordan Lucas (special teams value)

    Right now, it is becoming apparent that the roster is a numbers game, and a surprise cut or two could happen.
     
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  20. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    LT LG C RG RT
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Using volume stats instead of efficiency stats is a poor way to analyze players. In fact, talent evaluation is even better than being limited to stats. And talent and efficiency wise Wilson and Grant are very good comparisons. If you can't see that then there is no point in continuing this conversation.

    Lots of players start off injury prone and then learn how to take care of and protect their bodies. It's simplistic and inaccurate to just look at age. It's also silly to focus on the past 9 years and ignore what a player ha done over the more recent years. And the difference between paying one player $15 million and having three guys who could fill a similar role is that you're not stuck if you do have an injury. That's why I'm not worried about this group. We have multiple guys who could fill roles and be productive. We're not relying on one guy to step up or never get injured. There's talent and depth.
     
  22. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO Stills, Parker and Wilson have shown ability to play outside. That's actually one of the things I preferred about Wilson over Landry. Landry was less efficient outside and on longer routes but Wilson wasn't. I think he's a more versatile player.

    I see the secondary as very deep. I would add Maurice Smith into that fighting to make the team group as well.
     
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  23. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's probably my top concern as well along with QB of course. I think we're fine across the board if we stay healthy, but injuries to Tannehill and Raekwon would be hard to overcome. I could add Godchaux to that top injury impact list as well. I also think Fitzpatrick may be the key to fixing our communication issues so he's a key too. To a lesser extent injuries to Howard, Hayes and Tunsil would be tough. They provide some skills that we can't replicate easily. Injuries happen but hopefully luck will be on our side and we can avoid those key injuries that destroy a season.
     
  24. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    It's silly to ignore that a player has been ignored 7 out of 9 years? Buddy that's not starting off injury prone that's clearly having an injury prone career. Amendola is going to be 33 this year. The start of his career was many many years ago this is the end part of his career and he's still getting injured frequently.

    lol So if player A year in and year has 126 targets 90 receptions 1300 yards 12 tds for 10 years
    and player B year in and year out has 60 targets 40 receptions 500 yards 3 tds for 10 years ....in your mind they are comparable if they have the same efficiency? Yeah I'm sure player B is on the path to the HOF because his efficiency is comparable. Maybe bulk stats aren't the only way to analyze players but neither is solely looking at efficiency stats. As of right now Hill is clearly a better player than grant or wilson based on efficiency, talent, and volume stats. If you can't see that than there is indeed no point in continuing this conversation.
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2018
  25. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    It's all about trying to figure out what you're likely to get from a player this year. If I'm trying to figure out what's a reasonable expectation for Amendola's contributions this year then I'm going to look at his recent years, usually the last three. He's missed one or two games per year during that stretch. So a realistic expectation is that he'd play 14 or 15 games this season.

    I analyze talent and fit for this team, this year. Wilson is a more talented, more versatile player than Landry. He's more efficient in the slot and more efficient outside. Amendola is a more efficient slot player than Landry. I don't care about comparing their volume stats. I see those as clear upgrades over what we had last year.

    I don't claim that Grant is more talented than Hill. But their skill sets are very similar. And Grant's talent level is very high. Given the same opportunities their production could be close. I don't expect that he'll get as many opportunities, but I do see it as a reasonable expectation that he'll continue to be productive in the opportunities he does get.

    And that's the whole point. Despite the loss of a high volume WR, looking at the efficiency and the talent of what we replaced him with, we are better off.
     
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  26. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Gase adament Wilson is an outside guy, no need for us to compare him and Jarvis anymore.

    Amendola however..
     
  27. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    unless he's referring to tight sets I will believe it when I see it
     
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  28. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I think they carry 6 and if ford shows he can play specials it's his gig. In terms of caroo I doubt there is any takers in trade but it depends mostly on if any other team had a draft grade on him they still believe in more than anything else. he is making dirt money so that's no deterrent.

    odds real good though he's cut. jakeem grant is a lock
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I hadn't seen reports that Gesicki want ready to start? I've seen plenty of hand wringing over his blocking abilities, but as a receiver? Isn't he exactly what they thought they were getting? So, where's the evidence that Gesicki isn't ready to be at least a receiver for us right now?
     
  30. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    THIS, THIS, THIS!!!! Yessssssss!

    One of the things that I think makes Bill Belicheck such a great coach is that he plays to his players' strengths and puts them in position to be successful. Albert Wilson is 5'9'' which, in general, is undersized for a corner, but for an outside corner it borders on absurd. I understand he is blazing fast and can wiggle, but boundary corners are all fast and some of the best athletes in the league. Put that dude in space and try and give him a mismatch, and let's get those RAC yards.

    Wilson reminds me of the second coming of Az-Zahir Hakim for the Rams when they were the Greatest Show on Turf. That dude could fly out of the slot and was a big play waiting to happen. Hakim entered free agency and the Lions bit. However, the Lions had much grander visions of Hakim. The asked too much and stuck him on the outside, and suddenly, he was neutered.

    On more than an handful of occasions, I have seen Gase ask players to do more than what they are capable of doing. Every player on the team has weaknesses and flaws, but they also have strengths. Gase needs to start playing to those strengths.
     
  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    It obviously doesn’t mean he won’t play in the slot just doesn’t feel like the label slot receiver is accurate.

    We only have 1 guy to me that is a true X, so I’m guessing we see a variation of WR lineups.
     
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  32. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I think he will get a lot of red zone work, Rather he sees a lot of passing downs will likely depend on if our guys up front or pass protecting well.

    I don’t expect a whole lot out of Gesicki in year 1...Simply because rookie TE’s rarely come in and Ball early. But 5-6 TDS is a great start imo
     
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  33. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    examples please?
     
  34. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    Yes but the older you are the longer the recovery time is. If I twist my ankle as a 21 year old by recovery time is going to be a lot better than if I twisted it 10 years later. It's not realistic to expect your body to heal the same as it did when it was much younger. It's part of getting older. Especially when you consistently are getting injured that takes a toll. That's why A. Peterson could come back from an ACL & MCL tear and rush for 2K the next year but not from a torn meniscus and LCL sprain. I'm not saying Amendola is guaranteed to get injured just that it's likely and given his age it might just take longer than yeas past to recover.

    Given the same opportunities you believe Hill and Grant could be close in production? That would make Grant the best WR on the roster which means Gase is a fool for not making him more of a focus than Parker or you're way over estimating his potential. Seeing as how you're basing your opinion on a grand total of 13 catches worth of production I'm going with the latter.

    Here the problem with your thinking, you see a guys numbers and assume that if you simply gave him more targets it would produce around the same results and that's just not the way it works. That's the Randy Ratio line of thinking, Mike Nice "discovered" that in 2001 when the Vikings threw 40% of their passes to Randy Moss they were 4-1 and they were 4-10 when they didn't. So he decided to do just that for the 2002 season. The result was Moss caught a career high in receptions on a career high targets but had a career low in yards per reception, TD's, and yards per target.
     
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  35. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree with Gase. That's why I've been saying that Wilson is far more versatile than Landry. I don't have much faith in Parker. He can and has been productive, but I don't believe he'll ever be more than that. I could see Stills and Wilson being the outside guys with Amendola as the slot and Grant being capable of playing inside or out. (Especially next year if Parker is not resigned). People have a tendency to focus on size when calling a player a slot receiver, but it's about more than that.
     
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  36. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    TY Hilton is 5'9". He is pretty good outside
     
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  37. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I’m wondering if they do not start gauging return value on Parker.

    Agreed on Wilson, much more versatile.

    We always knew Landry would fall forward and I will miss that, but we are better off without him.
     
  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    While in general recovery slows as you age, it also depends on how well you take care of yourself. If Amendola as a younger man didn't stretch, workout in the off-season, etc. but learned to do so after injuries then he wouldn't necessarily get injured as much or take longer to recover just b/c he's older. The fact of the matter is that Amendola was injured more when he was younger and less in recent years. For whatever reason that's who he's been the last four years. Anybody who, like you, just assumed that he'd be the guy that was missing as many games as he did when he was younger just b/c he's older over the last four years would have been proven wrong.

    I am not just adding up numbers and assuming production. I base my analysis on talent. And my analysis is that we have a ton of talent at WR. You assume the talent isn't there b/c you haven't seen the volume. That's why it's your top area of concern. I see the talent and that's why it's not an area of concern for me.
     
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  39. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I'd be fine with getting something for Parker, but I don't know how much we could get. Maybe some GM loved him coming out and will just look at the numbers (which are decent), one more year of cheap contract and bite?
     
  40. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Apr 6, 2008
    It's about more than size. Hilton runs routes well and his speed gets DBs to back off. If you watch Grant when he's lined up on the boundary, you see the DBs back off out of respect for his speed. One of Drake's runs around the edge late last year was helped greatly when the DB had backed off of Grant and was in a bad position to provide any edge support by the time he realized it was a run. And Grant has had success getting deep in games and in practice. You put him on the edge and the DBs will back off making the quick hitch an easy 5 yards if not more.
     
    Fin-O and resnor like this.

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