In addition to me knowing absolutely nothing about football, my eyes are clearly also non-functional. Despite what the RT (not LT, but then again I'm a moron) is trying to do, the issue here is what he actually does after he fails to snatch. What actually happens is a quick tug of Wake's facemask as his right hand misses, then a quick grab of Wake's left shoulder and a tug down which is highlighted by Wake's left shoulder being pulled and dropped despite the fact that he's trying to work his body and his shoulders in the other direction. As Wake advances, the arm is hooked around Wake's head/neck area which in itself is strictly outlined in the rules. That arm is then used to divert Wake's path as Brady moves in order to allow Brady to move to the side. You can see Wake clearly lose his balance for a moment as he stops to change directions. This can only mean that he had the additional force of the falling defender around his neck pulling him in the other direction. Hence, he was grabbed as the defender fell.
What I saw was the tackle not moving his feet and getting destroyed by a power rush (I don't know NFL terms, so that's the best I got). If he had driven his feet and moved forward while rotating (which would be pushing Wake towards NE's endzone), then he would have had a shot of pushing Wake back enough in the pocket to where he wouldn't have mattered. He just never established enough leverage to break Wake's stride. Was it a penalty though? It doesn't look like it in your video, but you can see Wake's jersey get pulled back in the first version. It also looked like the lineman's other hand is up around the neck/facemask area so it's hard to say. I'd say no to the facemask, yes to holding (although it was brief). Side note- the balance Wake shows is freaking incredible! He did a full 180 while being pushed from the side and actually somehow sped up in the process. Wake's a stud.
I'm no expert, but it does appear to me at the very end of the play he could be considered holding as he hooks and turns Wake. That said, you really seem to know your stuff, so I'm going to read up on the techniques described to learn why you say it isn't a hold.
Actually, when you explain it that way and when I look into articles like this https://blogs.usafootball.com/blog/...natch-and-trap-technique-to-stop-pass-rushers it makes sense. Wake is able to stop him from snatching his balance by pushing with his other hand, but the tackle doesn't impede him further other than making him run around, once that fails. Brady just happens to be sliding to the right, so as Wake turns the tackle appears to jerk him as he turns around.
Well done. Great resource as well. Since there are numerous techniques used, and sometimes, just like pass rushers use combination moves, lineman will also use combos and counters as well. If you click on the various links on the page you brought up it will bring you to different pages to describe other pass pro techniques. For example the link below has a section on baiting. https://blogs.usafootball.com/blog/...sive-linemen-can-use-to-fend-off-pass-rushers Specifically watch the clip of Saints Ramczyk and closely to when he resets and where his hand placement is. His pads are parallel to the rusher on his upfield shoulder; outside arm is hooked w/hand on chestplate; inside hand is on the backside hip, and he stops him . . . legally. It's textbook and unfortunately a case where some will think it's a hold. This technique is similar to the example that we have been discussing regarding Wake, except there the RT is unsuccessful, due to Wake beating him to his drop spot, and once Wake gains full inside leverage he falls off.
The RT doesn't need to stop Wake's rush, but rather continue to run him on the arc behind the QB. He's also allowed to yank the jersey down (snatch) as long as he has position (which he does at the time). When he does so and then misses with the inside hand placement, he slides off and no longer impedes Wake's rush path. And yes, Wake is a phenomenal pass rusher.
Yeah, he just had to ride his momentum and let Wake run as far as he feels like into the backfield...he just couldn't keep up. I'd never heard of snatch though...I haven't played/coached line in almost two decades. Back then, if you gripped the jersey and the ref saw it, you earned a flag regardless. We curled our fingers and did palm-heel strikes like in karate to avoid the urge to grab on.
I remember those coaching points from the past. I also remember when lineman had to block with their forearms out like chicken wings with closed hand-fist in, but things have definitely changed. As long as your hands are inside, and keep the defender in tight, refs will never ever call it. Strike first, get your hand placement up and under the chest plate, grab the jersey, keep your man tight, and you can control your guy from there. But as soon as he gets outside the cylinder of your body, they warn you (if you're a vet), and then start throwing the flag.
I'm not getting into this debate about whether that was a penalty or not because I often feel like refs aren't very consistent in how they call offensive holding in the first place (just a feeling.. have no actual evidence to back that up). However, your comment about the Patriots was interesting because it's quite well known that they have some of the fewest penalties in the NFL. Question is .. precisely what kinds of penalties are the Patriots seldom called on? Here's a nice link with data to analyze: https://www.footballdb.com/stats/penalties.html?yr=2017 From 2006-2017 the Patriots have the 3rd fewest penalties called on them, trailing only the Colts and the Falcons. But where are they among the best, around average and among the worst? It turns out they're #1 (so fewest) in offsides penalties and #2 in 3 categories: delay of game, unnecessary roughness and whatever falls under "other" in that link. They're around average in 5 categories: #12 in roughing the passer, #13 in personal foul, #14 in offensive holding, #16 in defensive holding, and #19 in unsportsmanlike conduct. They're among the worst in 2 categories: #26 in defensive pass interference and #32 (worst) in offensive pass interference. So regardless of that particular play, at least in terms of offensive holding the Patriots get penalized around average. To be specific the average for an NFL team from 2006-2017 was 13.7 offensive holding penalties per year while for the Patriots it was 13.3. So offensive holding doesn't seem to be where the Patriots are gaining their advantage. Instead it's in offsides, delay of game and unnecessary roughness, and at least the first two (offsides and delay of game) seem to have little to do with any bias in officiating.
I understand all of the skepticism by some but just to echo what was posted earlier.....how many times did we miss the playoffs or a higher seed in the playoffs by 1 or 2 games...game we SHOULD have won early in the season? These are GOOD wins
I am typing on my phone and don’t have a way to display the data, but another stat I was interested in exploring is our 3rd down completion %. Currently we are at approximately 34% (ranked 22, I think) For comparison, another 2-0 team, the Bucs have a 50% completion rate and is 1st. or 2nd right now if I remember correctly. I realize that a lot of things factor into this such as 1st. and 2nd down yardage, penalties, etc., but I think it is an important stat nevertheless. I also realize it’s a small sample size ( this point is for CBrad :-) ). I suspect that the Bucs and the other teams in the top 5 will have their success rate decrease and hopefully ours will increase as the season progresses. I hope to explore this area more when I have time. We just got a new puppy and I may have a new job ( cross fingers).
I don't have a clue to the numbers on 3rd down rate but I will say one of the biggest problems we've had on 3rd down or in the Red Zone has been Penalties on the offense and shooting ourselves in the foot. The trend so far has been fewer penalties so by extension we should see some improvement in those two key areas. And I believe our 3rd down conversion rate was better this last game than the 1st.
That's why I quit watching the NBA almost 20 years ago, and few things make me more angry about football or any other sport. Officiating is supposed to be totally impartial. We know that its not, and it sucks.
Snatch and grab is a tricky one...For one thing, if youre not careful, thats how you end up with child support bills (Now you see why i dont quit my day job)
Figure instead of creating another thread, I'd just add to this... With the Bucs' loss last night, the Dolphins are now only 1 of 3 teams that remain undefeated. The Chiefs and the Rams being the other two Only 5 teams' defenses have allowed less points to be scored than the Dolphins at 52. Ravens (51); Titans (50); Jaguars (44); Redskins (44) and the Rams (36). Only 3 teams have a net points difference (PF v PA) greater than the Dolphins at 23. Ravens (46); Chiefs (26) and the Rams (66) Still early in the season and of course there are tons of different stats out there but as I am one of the few who adamantly stand for the old adage, "Offense wins games...defense wins championships", I'd say so far we're on the right track
When healthy we're better than avg on both sides of the ball. That's usually a recipe for success. But we need to be great on one side of the ball. That's why this team needs a great LBer or two and another DT.
That actually turns out to be a misconception. It's true that during the regular season offense is slightly more important than defense in that offensive performance is about 5% more predictive of whether you win than defensive performance (going by points scored and points allowed). But offense is still more important, on average, in the playoffs too. Using z-scores, which I'll translate to percentiles in a moment, this is what you get when you look at how far above league average the offenses and defenses have been for each playoff game winner (e.g., there are 11 data points in recent years.. 4 WC winners + 4 Div winners + 2 Conf. winners + 1 SB winner; in some cases the data points are identical and they're plotted on top of each other): A z-score of 0 represents league average, so as you can see on average you need an above average offense and above average defense to win in the playoffs. But you need on average a better offense than defense in the playoffs. Translating z-scores to percentiles you need a top 23.5 percentile offense and top 29.5 percentile defense on average to win in the playoffs. One can break down those graphs by WC, Division, Conference Championship and SB. I can post those graphs too, but it turns out that in all except the Conference Championship offense has historically been more important than defense in the playoffs.
Yeah, no problem. First here's the graph for all SB's for reference: From 2000 the average z-score for offense is 0.7985 and for defense it's 0.2127. Those translate to top 21.5% for offense and top 42% for defense. So defenses since 2000 are not that far above average. If you need the individual z-scores I can post them too. btw here's a nice site to convert z-scores to percentiles: https://measuringu.com/pcalcz/ Make sure you choose "one sided test" and quote a number just slightly larger than the "100 - percent" category.
I was thinking about this last night. (Dangerous, I know..lol) I think that the proper way to look at this is to attempt to determine what side of the ball better helps the other. What I mean by that is, you've shown that for most SB teams the offense was better. However, how many times has a great offense carried a bad to average defense and how often has a great defense carried a bad to average offense? So, if you have a team with the 2nd ranked offense and the 2nd ranked defense there is a push and we can throw that data out. And maybe not include offenses and defenses that are extremely close in rankings. (I'm just going off of points scored and points allowed, BTW) However, if we see that a 1st to 10th offense carried a 16th or worse defense we determine some sort of measurement/formula for that. And the same for 1st-10th defense carrying an average to below average offense. Is that something you can do cbrad?
Well here's a 5-minute solution lol: That's plotting the difference in z-scores between offense and defense for SB winners. 56% of the time the offense z-score was higher. I'm guessing that the histogram will smooth out over time.. or maybe not? Those peaks near -1.5 and +2 are cases where the defense was way better than the offense (-1.5) and where the offense was way better than the defense (+2). Note that the peaks there also favor the offense slightly. It would be interesting to see what this looks like after 100 SB's, specifically to see if those peaks are real or just sample size issues (hopefully we're still around and I'll get you that graph too lol!).
